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Omerta posted:Maybe I’m just dumb and/or missing something, but isn’t margin approval required to execute any short sale? I’m not planning to go beyond my account balance on a single-stock short. So this was covered but there's probably no shares to short, the margin requirements make it a worthless trade anyways, and if you do and someone decides to buy them you're turbofucked. Re: covid impact; i think everyone has a good idea what it is now, and any concrete relief will save number.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:31
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Okay since "SK is different" is a poo poo argument let me enumerate why SK is going to get a different outcome than the U.S. - South Korea's testing aggressively, the U.S. doesn't test everyone symptomatic, let alone everyone with potential exposure. - South Korea quarantined individuals who are symptomatic and their contacts. The U.S. is quarantining the small measure of people testing positive, but not tracing contacts. - South Korea has socialized medicine so people who are symptomatic are likely to receive medical care and be tested. The U.S. has FYGM medicine so people who are symptomatic will try to tough it out until it's an emergency because they can't afford to be proactive. - South Korea's measures to halt spread were proactive, comprehensive, and effective. The U.S.'s measures to halt spread have been reactive, opt in, and in many cases utterly ineffective. Cutting of flights from Europe won't impact the spread when it's already here. - Our best case scenario will be worse than South Korea's worst. We will get hospital saturation in early May. This will kill people. Not all the people killed will be because they're vulnerable to COVID-19, some people will die because there's no room in the hospital to save them. A spike in deaths will still have an economic impact and cause panic. So, yeah, my thesis is we're not at the bottom, and my positions reflect that.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:32
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WTI down 15% today, jesus.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:33
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Okay since "SK is different" is a poo poo argument let me enumerate why SK is going to get a different outcome than the U.S. Sure, but have you considered Steve Mnuchin makin' plays?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:34
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saintonan posted:WTI down 15% today, jesus. yeah, looking at that, I'm wondering to myself when Saudi and Russia manage to set aside their differences. This is lower than they intended.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:37
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greasyhands posted:I mean, when does the infrastructure rebuild america bill go through? Infrastructure Week!! Gonna close this last put if Donald's speech starts rallying the markets, if it goes the other way will have to hold on through the halt
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Mar 18, 2020 16:43
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Colonel Taint posted:Margin is required, yes. When you short stock, your broker has to find shares to borrow/sell. He's saying they might not be available. Another way to take a short position is to buy put options, which carry premiums that are super high at the moment, making it difficult to profit on puts. Yes, I don’t want to buy put options because I’m scared of them and, as you rightly pointed out, premiums are outrageous. I can’t tell whether/how many shares are available for shorting because I haven’t yet requested margin approval. (And I’m aware that APRN has very high short interest.) I’ve never done anything but buy long, but I’d like to use a couple grand to mess around with short selling.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:49
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The Lombardy region entered triage territory. They were so overwhelmed that they had to sort incoming patients based on their likelihood to survive and decide who gets treatment like a drat war zone. That policy is still ongoing, they haven't recovered. The same thing will happen in the US and set off a wave of panic when we also run out of ICU beds and ventilators. I predict some negative market effect at that time. South Korea handled the crisis far better than Italy and their stock market is still crashing straight down. They are a million miles from economically recovered. China is estimating a minimum of -10% GDP growth and they are widely criticized for padding their numbers. Congress and the Fed will continue with monster bailouts and monster stimulus. We might even get $1000 checks and suspensions on rent and mortgages by the time this is over. That will stabilize/rally the market for a time and create a false sense of normality. People we'll think we're at the bottom. Weeks to a month later people will notice how many businesses are deep, deep in the red and how high unemployment has risen and the market will slide again. We've lost all major sports, hotels, travel, gyms, spas, bars, casinos, etc. This is going to blow a hole in the economy and lifting the isolation measures will not patch it up quickly. The oil crash has a different cause but that's also painful. US shale producers aren't going to go low than recover later, they're just going to go out of business if the Saudis want it to happen.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:52
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Any particular reason why the internet security type stocks are going up today (NET, CRWD, FSLY)?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:52
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Omerta posted:Yes, I don’t want to buy put options because I’m scared of them and, as you rightly pointed out, premiums are outrageous. I can’t tell whether/how many shares are available for shorting because I haven’t yet requested margin approval. (And I’m aware that APRN has very high short interest.) shorts are the scary thing, writing both calls and puts is scary, all of them have ~unlimited~ loss potential. Buying a put means the most you can lose is the premium worst case it expires worthless, you probably want to sell before they expire to not deal with executing anyway. Put just means you make money when it goes down instead of up. (way the gently caress over simplifying). A put is a much safer play than a short, you probably want to read up on puts because it sounds like you want to buy puts.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:52
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no the most you can lose on a put is that guy on WSB who held through expiry in the money and got assigned
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Mar 18, 2020 16:55
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if youre worried about assignment then just do spreads. also dont use robinhood
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Mar 18, 2020 16:57
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Omerta posted:Yes, I don’t want to buy put options because I’m scared of them and, as you rightly pointed out, premiums are outrageous. I can’t tell whether/how many shares are available for shorting because I haven’t yet requested margin approval. (And I’m aware that APRN has very high short interest.) The risk of a put is technically infinitely lower than the risk of shorting a stock. I'd rethink that strategy especially if you have to ask for a margin account. Implied volatility is through the roof, premiums are high, but that's because stuff is moving A LOT.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:57
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It is possible to have infinite loss in a spread as well. If one leg closes ITM and one leg OTM and you don't close it before EOD Friday, you could be in for a wild ride
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Mar 18, 2020 16:58
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Lol, Dow Theory finally threw a sell signal on 3/9/2020 at 23851.02
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Mar 18, 2020 16:59
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Do what I do and never let it expire
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Mar 18, 2020 16:59
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If you're worried, call your broker after you buy it and ask them to mark you down for "Do not Exercise". In that case, if you fall in a coma and can't sell your put for whatever reason, your broker will just sell it off at market price (I think it gets sold to the CBOE?) Edit: you can do this by chat usually too if you hate talking to people.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:59
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Trump is giving another speech today. What puts/shorts should I be getting
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Mar 18, 2020 17:00
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Doccykins posted:no the most you can lose on a put is that guy on WSB who held through expiry in the money and got assigned he didn't hold the put and get assigned, he held an itm put into close and it was exercised because brokers auto exercise itm options, because USUALLY you want that and he could have made money if the exercised shares didn't then immediately turn around and drop past the strike price of the put holding shallow itm options past the close is its own risk factor, but that guy got bit by buying a bunch of stock and it going down so long as we're being pedantic
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Mar 18, 2020 17:00
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DevCore posted:Trump is giving another speech today. What puts/shorts should I be getting I sold my SPY puts and bough SPY calls. Whatever he says, it's free cash for the market, it's gonna go up momentarily.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:01
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DevCore posted:Trump is giving another speech today. What puts/shorts should I be getting Wouldn't be surprised if we see a bump up if he announces that they have the votes for a bailout.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:02
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I'm not going to touch it but this is exactly what Peloton wants. Would not be surprised to see good numbers next earnings.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:14
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I sold my UNFI call yesterday for a 10% profit, because it expired friday and was finally profitable, today it's up like 1500%.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:17
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:he didn't hold the put and get assigned, he held an itm put into close and it was exercised because brokers auto exercise itm options, because USUALLY you want that Thanks, am still learning the intricacies myself 
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Mar 18, 2020 17:18
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It sure would be cool if TD WebBroker would unfuck itself.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:19
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Trump authorized this today. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act https://twitter.com/AP/status/1240311354902360070?s=19
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Mar 18, 2020 17:20
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What is with the weird millennial bashing? herp derp they're good at video gaems lol
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Mar 18, 2020 17:21
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Oscar Wild posted:I'm not going to touch it but this is exactly what Peloton wants. Would not be surprised to see good numbers next earnings. I read an article about PTON about a month ago that essentially said that as they dial back the massive amount they are spending on marketing for awareness that they should start to see better earnings, as marketing eats up a TON of their money currently. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/08/peloton-interactive-is-unprofitable-and-undervalue.aspx
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Mar 18, 2020 17:23
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Doccykins posted:Thanks, am still learning the intricacies myself There's a lot to learn, and a lot of people trade options and don't understand it all. Assignment is the bad side to writing an option, either call or put. If you're short an option, you can be randomly assigned at any time. The consequence of assignment is that you have to fulfill the option right then and there, so if it's a call, you have to sell at the strike. If it's a put, you have to buy at the strike. This is true of "American style" options for the entire life of the option. "European style" can only be exercised at expiry. There was a dude complaining this morning on reddit that his call spread didn't get assigned: he was short an expiring call, and was long an expiring call at a lower strike. His broker exercised the call he was long, so he bought a bunch of stock at that strike. He was NOT assigned, because someone called up their broker and gave them a Do Not Exercise order, so he was just left holding the stock without selling it at the price of the call he was short. The person who asked for the DNE was right, because it dropped at open and the dude lost a bunch of money, because the price dropped back below the price he exercised at. If you're just learning, don't have options positions ITM at expiry, either long or short.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:24
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Okay there's some crazy poo poo out there--a lot of gas and midstream is trading as if everyone is going bankrupt immediately. And a lot will, but not everybody. Bought some NSS yielding ~20%. Unless the Permian totally disappears I think NS will struggle but muddle through; also 1/3 of their revenues are storage which should pick up some of the slack. (edited to put in the correct oil play, brain fart) Agronox fucked around with this message at 02:10 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 17:24
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gently caress someone get the president as far away from microphones as possible.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:31
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FreelanceSocialist posted:gently caress someone get the president as far away from microphones as possible. ??? What now?
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Mar 18, 2020 17:33
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DIS finally having downward movement, thinking about closing out my 5/15 75p this week.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:34
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AtomicSX posted:DIS finally having downward movement, thinking about closing out my 5/15 75p this week. I think they have a lot further to fall I'm thinking about picking up more DIS puts but don't really want to sell any of my positions and don't want to buy on margin because that just feels like a HUGE mistake. What's your exit price on them?
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Mar 18, 2020 17:36
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greasyhands posted:Oh, i guess I own some MAR now. Incredible The drop today was pretty astounding. That happened in a hurry. Guess who loaded up!
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Mar 18, 2020 17:41
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can't handle the oil prices, picked up USO 5 May calls
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Mar 18, 2020 17:44
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:I could not let your default avatar stand after that insane kill shot of a stock tip Thanks for the av. I was saying, "The Bank. The" Josh Lyman posted:All of them are under $5. There's no room to buy puts now. I think I missed the boat. Most likely. I think there's going to be a dead cat bounce over the next 1-2 weeks. Anton Chigurh posted:PENN puts I bought already looking great this morning. Thanks Lote! Congrats. You might want to sell today. No specific horizon for bad news plus dying down of the short hysteria means dead cat bounce incoming. Also, use smart money management for gambling. If any one options position blows up to the point where its 20+% of your holdings, take profits and sell it to get down to a more reasonable percentage. As a gambler, you can be +EV in any game and still go broke if you have poor bankroll management skills. Anton Chigurh posted:If you could pick only one of the casinos to buy puts in today, which would it be? I am not an options trader, so evaluate at your own risk. If the price is not too bad, 3-6 mo expiry shitputs on both $CZR + $ERI. In the event that coronavirus doesn't go away by May/June, one or both of these stocks will be bankrupt / insolvent. Lowest puts you can find. If $CZR makes it through June without going bankrupt and the deal goes through, the stock is worth $8.40 plus in June. Ur Getting Fatter posted:Update on my casino bets: It's just like the gypsy woman said! Ur Getting Fatter posted:Lote any insights on if/when we might see some sort of bailout on the casino industry? Trying to judge just how long to hold these puts. Check $RRR and $PENN now. I'm reducing short positions now because I think there will be a dead cat bounce. I can comment briefly later on the casino industry, but I'm on my lunch break now. My insights into the casino industry come as poker player who has spent a lot of time in casinos in combination with being a medical professional that is interested in the treatment of addiction. I'm not better than average on ability to analyze a balance sheet, nor familiar with a lot of the technical M&A, debt deal stuff, so take my advice at your own risk.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:47
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WTF is up with DFS? I mean I know consumer credit is not going to perform great here but is there some sort of underlying issue with how they fund themselves or something? Down almost 2/3 in 3 weeks.
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Mar 18, 2020 17:48
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FreelanceSocialist posted:What is with the weird millennial bashing? herp derp they're good at video gaems lol it's literally this shark toothed lady, she loving sucks
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Mar 18, 2020 17:50
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"We're looking at numbers, we're playing with numbers! These numbers are moving back and forth. Big numbers!" tests, paychecks, bailouts? -- numbers that move
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Mar 18, 2020 17:50
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