Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Dwight Eisenhower: Jan 24, 2006; Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Megasabin posted:

Let me clarify to make sure I understand.

Are you saying that if you are already hitting your strike price, but it's starting to turn the other direction, there's room to sell to take some profits from it?

Or are you saying that even if you are out of your break even range, you can still lose less money by selling it early? My understanding was that if you don't hit your break even, your put will be worthless regardless of whether you missed the mark by 1 dollar or 30 dollars.

To give a real example. I had a Marriott put for 53 dollars. Would there be any difference if I sold to close at 54 dollars vs 70 dollars? Would I lose less money one way?

Yes, someone may buy your put because it still has non-0 time value. A 53-strike put at 54 dollars with 6 hours to expiration has more value than a 53-strike put at 70 dollars with 6 hours to expiration.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:16

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 23:36

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Megasabin posted:

Let me clarify to make sure I understand.

Are you saying that if you are already hitting your strike price, but it's starting to turn the other direction, there's room to sell to take some profits from it?

Or are you saying that even if you are out of your break even range, you can still lose less money by selling it early? My understanding was that if you don't hit your break even, your put will be worthless regardless of whether you missed the mark by 1 dollar or 30 dollars.

To give a real example. I had a Marriott put for 53 dollars. Would there be any difference if I sold to close at 54 dollars vs 70 dollars? Would I lose less money one way?

I thought you were asking about the 2nd scenario.

For example, my MAR 50 puts are currently OTM bc the stock has risen since I bought them. However, they expire next month and I think the stock is going to go lower. Even if they go ITM I don�t want to be assigned, so my intent was always to close, just a matter of when.

That said, if you think the stock will just move against you all the way to expiration, you might as well close now to recover what you can.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:17

greasyhands: Oct 28, 2006; Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

I'm about to give up on SOLY, This market has way too many opportunities and I have way too much capital tied up in that and its doing nothing but bounce around. So it should hit $20 by next week

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:18

Jack Daniels: Nov 14, 2002

Femtosecond posted:

Was expecting another one of those big move days today leading into the weekend so I'm a bit surprised.

it can still happen plenty of time left lol

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:18

leper khan: Dec 28, 2010; Honest to god thinks Half Life 2 is a bad game. But at least he likes Monster Hunter.

Someone remind me that buying weekly scratchers is an idiotic idea. Even though my ZM scratchers just got me like 30k net.

No way I can keep up with these things that should loose money.. right?

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:20

dpkg chopra: Jun 9, 2007; Fast Food Fight; Grimey Drawer

Not sure where a big move would go, to be honest.

Normally people don't want to hold the bag over the weekend, which means selloff, but we've seen huge Friday EOD buys lately.

Next week should see terrible numbers come in, but lots of (smart) people seem to think stuff is cheap and all of that is priced in.

Maybe we just go sideways for some time until actual news come through.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:22

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Jesus Christ, I'm down 5k today.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:36

Woodchip: Mar 28, 2010

3 bad trades this am, taking off until the afternoon. Short vol was the play.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:36

Ulio: Feb 17, 2011

That short volatility trade working well so far, vol isn't going up on any market sell off. In fact it was down more when SPY was higher in premarket compared to the opening bell drop.

I don't think we will see low vol of Jan but it will stablize at a lower level than where it is now, possibly 30ish.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:37

resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

SPY seems to be trending ever so slightly over S&P for anyone who was interested in that prediction there would be a PUT cover moonspike by the end of the day. It might be happening?

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:39

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

I feel... better about the market at the moment? Which seems like we're probably just prepping for another leg lower once the jobless claims start coming in next week.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:42

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Josh Lyman posted:

I feel... better about the market at the moment? Which seems like we're probably just prepping for another leg lower once the jobless claims start coming in next week.

It just seems ludicrous for SPY to be trading above its Dec. 21, 2018 close. Everything about the US economy is order of magnitudes worse than it was 15 months ago.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:46

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

Cool day for trash to catch bids... TRLY and SPCE both up 25+%

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:46

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Is today a day to sell my poo poo and get out? All my puts are 4/17 or later. Starting to get nervous hands here. My portfolio's high was 28k three days ago. Now its down to 13k.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:49

jokes: Dec 20, 2012; Uh... Kupo?

pmchem posted:

It just seems ludicrous for SPY to be trading above its Dec. 21, 2018 close. Everything about the US economy is order of magnitudes worse than it was 15 months ago.

With full knowledge it'll get worse.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:54

Ulio: Feb 17, 2011

Don't mind getting some Jnug calls at these prices, these seems like a drypowder keg. Gold has been extremely volatile, this could explode at any time. If it doesn't its so cheap the loss is going to be minimal. I will get some of the underlying as well.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:57

dpkg chopra: Jun 9, 2007; Fast Food Fight; Grimey Drawer

I'm logging off for the day, someone let me know if Casino stocks take a dump, thanks.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:58

Dwight Eisenhower: Jan 24, 2006; Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Bored As gently caress posted:

Is today a day to sell my poo poo and get out? All my puts are 4/17 or later. Starting to get nervous hands here. My portfolio's high was 28k three days ago. Now its down to 13k.

You shouldn't let anyone else answer this question for you ultimately.

That being said, the way to lose money is to buy high and sell low. If you're uneasy right now and are feeling like you NEED to sell, that means you're locking in a loss. If you continue to buy puts when it looks good to be buying puts, and selling puts when it looks bad to be holding puts, you're going to give your money away.

If you're stressed out about holding puts, then you need to be less ambitious with your option plays and sell them the next time they're profitable. Unemployment numbers are probably bad, and probably worse than people are guessing if the Fed's trying to keep any early indications from getting out. That's a PREDICTABLE point where puts will likely gain some value. Between now and then unpredictable bad news can also come out.

People will tell you that you need to make a minimum of 100% on an option play to stay in the game, but that's not true. You need to make positive expected value plays, where the expected value accounts for your broker's commissions.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:59

LeafHouse: Apr 22, 2008; That's what you get for not hailing to the chimp!

Bored As gently caress posted:

Is today a day to sell my poo poo and get out? All my puts are 4/17 or later. Starting to get nervous hands here. My portfolio's high was 28k three days ago. Now its down to 13k.

Positions? I feel like we're still so early into this crisis and 4/17 gives you a lot of breathing room. If you're up and nervous may be a good idea to get out but my puts are crap right now so I'm going to see how next week goes. I don't think this green can last. Of course I don't know poo poo so...

2x Z $25 3/27
5x CZR $6.5 3/27
5x CZR $5 4/24
1x CZR $8 9/18

# ? Mar 20, 2020 15:59

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Options are a great way to add some leverage to your play on the loving 3x junior gold miner etf

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:00

Hed: Mar 31, 2004; Fun Shoe

Bored As gently caress posted:

Is today a day to sell my poo poo and get out? All my puts are 4/17 or later. Starting to get nervous hands here. My portfolio's high was 28k three days ago. Now its down to 13k.

I'm just in the market with no fancy options and already feeling like a chump for being the only one on the Internet who apparently hasn't already sold off.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:01

Omerta: Feb 19, 2007; I thought short arms were good for benching

Bored As gently caress posted:

Is today a day to sell my poo poo and get out? All my puts are 4/17 or later. Starting to get nervous hands here. My portfolio's high was 28k three days ago. Now its down to 13k.

According to one of your recent posts, all of your money is in puts. That seems...aggressive. Maybe pare it back a bit.

IMO, today will finish up, and next week or the following will be the low water mark.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:01

greasyhands: Oct 28, 2006; Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

MGM and MAR, yah son

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:03

java: May 7, 2005

Since I can't buy options today but can still purchase shares/ETFs, what's my best play for assuming a drop over the weekend? SPXS? I usually don't gently caress around with ETFs.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:04

pixaal: Jan 8, 2004; All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

You shouldn't let anyone else answer this question for you ultimately.

That being said, the way to lose money is to buy high and sell low. If you're uneasy right now and are feeling like you NEED to sell, that means you're locking in a loss. If you continue to buy puts when it looks good to be buying puts, and selling puts when it looks bad to be holding puts, you're going to give your money away.

If you're stressed out about holding puts, then you need to be less ambitious with your option plays and sell them the next time they're profitable. Unemployment numbers are probably bad, and probably worse than people are guessing if the Fed's trying to keep any early indications from getting out. That's a PREDICTABLE point where puts will likely gain some value. Between now and then unpredictable bad news can also come out.

People will tell you that you need to make a minimum of 100% on an option play to stay in the game, but that's not true. You need to make positive expected value plays, where the expected value accounts for your broker's commissions.

Good news and hope also send the market up before next Friday (the numbers are for next Friday that are trying to be hidden right?). Add in some hope during the week and, the drop off might not be down from here.

I don't think we get that high, I think we go down from here but I'm not sure how much higher we go during the week if we do. We could stay flat, or could nose dive too which would be devastating when unemployment numbers release.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:05

jokes: Dec 20, 2012; Uh... Kupo?

Never commit, fully, to one direction in a bear market. This is my impression. I buy many stocks and buy many puts and sometimes buy calls, and also keep a more sizeable cash reserve than in a bull market with a bit more predictability. Bear market has the biggest swings, and if you're thinking that's easy money it is not because those swings carry with them a shitload of theta problems and volatility spikes which are another layer of things that can gently caress with options. Buying stocks is a great strategy all on its own. Options? Nowhere near as true.

jokes fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Mar 20, 2020

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:05

coronavirus: Jan 27, 2020; by Cyrano4747

BUD up MARR up O up F up AC up.

Looking like it might be a good day.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:06

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

LeafHouse posted:

Positions? I feel like we're still so early into this crisis and 4/17 gives you a lot of breathing room. If you're up and nervous may be a good idea to get out but my puts are crap right now so I'm going to see how next week goes. I don't think this green can last. Of course I don't know poo poo so...

2x Z $25 3/27
5x CZR $6.5 3/27
5x CZR $5 4/24
1x CZR $8 9/18

Here are my positions. I'm gonna hold. I've got a month to recover. Thanks for the advice guys.

https://imgur.com/a/KtPkejB

I've got stocks and a mutual fund, this isn't my only retirement savings or anything. It's just 10k I invested over the course of 3 weeks.

Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Mar 20, 2020

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:07

Ulio: Feb 17, 2011

java posted:

Since I can't buy options today but can still purchase shares/ETFs, what's my best play for assuming a drop over the weekend? SPXS? I usually don't gently caress around with ETFs.

Try SDS, a lot of the other inverse etfs 3x have insane decay.

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

You shouldn't let anyone else answer this question for you ultimately.

That being said, the way to lose money is to buy high and sell low. If you're uneasy right now and are feeling like you NEED to sell, that means you're locking in a loss. If you continue to buy puts when it looks good to be buying puts, and selling puts when it looks bad to be holding puts, you're going to give your money away.

If you're stressed out about holding puts, then you need to be less ambitious with your option plays and sell them the next time they're profitable. Unemployment numbers are probably bad, and probably worse than people are guessing if the Fed's trying to keep any early indications from getting out. That's a PREDICTABLE point where puts will likely gain some value. Between now and then unpredictable bad news can also come out.

People will tell you that you need to make a minimum of 100% on an option play to stay in the game, but that's not true. You need to make positive expected value plays, where the expected value accounts for your broker's commissions.

Yes I am seeing lots of my friends who had some investments, trying to trade in this volatile period because they see someone on wsb making 1000%. Actually even experienced traders can get blown out in these times.

Looks like most people here are bearish, if you want to chase the momentum(which is downside) just do it with otm calls and reroll. The risk/reward is very attractive.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:10

Omerta: Feb 19, 2007; I thought short arms were good for benching

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

People will tell you that you need to make a minimum of 100% on an option play to stay in the game, but that's not true. You need to make positive expected value plays, where the expected value accounts for your broker's commissions.

People say that? That seems extreme.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:14

java: May 7, 2005

Ulio posted:

Try SDS, a lot of the other inverse etfs 3x have insane decay.

Much appreciated.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:16

1st_Panzer_Div.: May 11, 2005; Grimey Drawer

Bored As gently caress posted:

Jesus Christ, I'm down 5k today.

Remember when you were on the edge about putting savings into play cause it was such easy money? This is the day you go ahh, I'm not a dumbass, so glad I didn't do that.

Gotta keep the good choices in sight.

My RRR's put for today (I got a killer price) had expiring worthless, lost $75 for 3x @4.

Lyft has til 4/3, they're flat anyhow, fully expect them to drop like a stone this weekend.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:26

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

In the last 12-18 hours we�ve had California and New York issue shelter in place. They account for 22.5% of US GDP. Obviously we won�t see the effect for another full quarter but it does make me think we�re just positioning for more downward pressure.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:32

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

I have no confidence whatsoever in predicting what happens today. Made a few bucks and I'm staying in cash.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:33

Lote: Aug 5, 2001; Place your bets

I believe the movements up in $PENN, $RRR, and $CZR, and casino stocks in general, are short covering. This is objectively bad news that we are hearing. We just went from lowest unemployment to nearly Great Depression levels of unemployment. Casinos are going to be wrecked by this.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:36

dougdrums: Feb 25, 2005; CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

Omerta posted:

People say that? That seems extreme.

It's because a lot of times, the loss will be 100%

Doesn't have to be true, just depends on how you want to trade.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:37

Dwight Eisenhower: Jan 24, 2006; Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Remember to buy low, sell high. What does that mean?

It means you buy options that are cheap when they are cheap, and you sell options that are expensive when they are expensive. What does that mean?

It means that if it's an up day you buy puts, and if it's a down day you don't buy puts.

It means that if it's a down day you buy calls, and if it's an up day you don't buy calls.

It means that if volatility is low you want to adjust toward being a net buyer of options with low theta.

It means that if volatility is high you want to adjust toward being a net seller of options with high theta.

What's expensive? What's cheap? That depends on the market. A mortgage was 11.85% APR in 1985. A mortgage was 4.08% in 2015. An expensive or a cheap mortgage, at those times, was relative to those prices, but expensive and cheap at those time frames are totally decoupled from each other that 30 year time frame.

A big chunk of being effective on options is being able to look at where the price is right now and contextualize that price as "expensive" or "cheap" and act accordingly.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:40

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

Remember to buy low, sell high. What does that mean?

It means you buy options that are cheap when they are cheap, and you sell options that are expensive when they are expensive. What does that mean?

It means that if it's an up day you buy puts, and if it's a down day you don't buy puts.

It means that if it's a down day you buy calls, and if it's an up day you don't buy calls.

It means that if volatility is low you want to adjust toward being a net buyer of options with low theta.

It means that if volatility is high you want to adjust toward being a net seller of options with high theta.

What's expensive? What's cheap? That depends on the market. A mortgage was 11.85% APR in 1985. A mortgage was 4.08% in 2015. An expensive or a cheap mortgage, at those times, was relative to those prices, but expensive and cheap at those time frames are totally decoupled from each other that 30 year time frame.

A big chunk of being effective on options is being able to look at where the price is right now and contextualize that price as "expensive" or "cheap" and act accordingly.

I agree with everything here, but why does low volatility -> buy low theta and high volatility -> sell high theta? Did you mean vega?

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:43

fougera: Apr 5, 2009

Literally everybody knows your doom and gloom analysis right now, at this point you are betting on a nuke going off over the weekend to make serious alpha.

I said it yesterday and I'll reiterate again: cash looks very good right now.

I still have my puts on HYG and might add to europe. Otherwise sold all SPY puts throughout the week.

We might have a great entry point for shorting next week when pension funds are forced buyers.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:44

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 23:36

Lote: Aug 5, 2001; Place your bets

Classic Head and Shoulders pattern tracing out for $PENN intraday.

# ? Mar 20, 2020 16:45

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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