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PENN went from 4 to 11 to 8 in less than 3 days, and people in this thread expect it to go to zero eventually. Conclusion: PENN is bitcoin
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Mar 20, 2020 20:50
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 18:18 |
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I can't believe TSLA is staying green today edit: just went barely red at the bell pmchem fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 20:52
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Baddog posted:But if you are well informed and know what all these closures and hospital overflows lead to, you know the situation is still very likely to be worse in a month. Academics would argue that everyone else knows this too and has already priced the market correctly, knowing that this is going to happen. Personally I think the biggest factor going forward is how much money Trump can badger congress into lighting on fire to make number go up. The government COULD print so much money that we all just pause for a few months and resume life mostly as normal in the fall, with forward earnings largely unaffected. Or he could spend his days telling reporters they are stupid and making everything worse!
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Mar 20, 2020 20:53
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Any thoughts that the $1.3 trillion stimulus will get passed over the weekend and we'll see a relief rally? My Monday SPY 250 calls got crushed today to the point where I may as well just hold them over the weekend and try to sell them if we get a pop in the morning. As is, I'm fine with them expiring worthless. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 20:55
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Josh Lyman posted:Any thoughts that the $1.3 trillion stimulus will get passed over the weekend and we'll see a relief rally? On the other hand, confirmed cases will continue to skyrocket and more and more shutdowns will be coming into play.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:03
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pmchem posted:I can't believe TSLA is staying green today TSLA closed their production in California as well but the stock has barely been affected. Josh Lyman posted:Any thoughts that the $1.3 trillion stimulus will get passed over the weekend and we'll see a relief rally? Will be a good time to add puts imo if it is a rally. Liquidity definitely seems to be a issue , a lot of people are short in dollars but I don't think the liquidity at this point will mean a prolonged rise equities. We could see just a 1k rally and then it gets faded by the end of the day or in futures. The issue equities have is the containment of Corona mainly, I think Fed has done all they can do but they will keep printing more which is helpful because market would probably tank a lot more a lot faster without it,. Miracle v shape bounce scenario is somehow GILD/REGN find some vaccine that prevents or reduces death rate for severe rated patients". Sell off stops/moderate-flat movement is probably quarantine + new cases dropping world wide. Also I know people were talking about the job numbers. https://twitter.com/TruthGundlach/status/1241092246201462784 Ulio fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 21:04
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Ulio posted:TSLA closed their production in California as well but the stock has barely been affected. TSLA already recently fell off a cliff though.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:06
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Agronox posted:Keynes himself sort of walks back his famous "the market can stay irrational" quote in (I think) the General Theory. I think the argument is, under what rational valuation does a ~24-25 P/E ratio justify further bidding to drive that price higher in the presence of looming mortality and economic disruption. Trading flat through February would indicate market participants felt uncertain. A small sell off would indicate participants acknowledge there's a risk and that now is a good time to take profits. But we climbed from 3235.66 to 3393.52 between 2/3 and 2/21. Why are things 5% more valuable over three weeks with this uncertainty looming?
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Mar 20, 2020 21:06
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pixaal posted:TSLA already recently fell off a cliff though. Ya that is true, I been short on it the whole way down, didn't start until like $700 but I just meant the news as of yesterday did nothing.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:08
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Decided to finally do the options thing. Gave myself roughly the same bankroll I would for a long weekend of gambling. No one said it would be this fun!
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Mar 20, 2020 21:10
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pmchem posted:I can't believe TSLA is staying green today The moral of TSLA is don't short it, the stock never makes sense.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:11
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Is that a put that expires on a Thursday?
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Mar 20, 2020 21:12
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:The moral of TSLA is don't short it, the stock never makes sense. That drat thing almost gave me a heart attack when I had a position on it, never loving again.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:13
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So I woke up and immediately discovered which options I had overpaid on the most. Sold those that seemed the least likely to come back at a loss, and put it all into the suddenly cheaper DIS 6/17 $75p. I barely made it out above yesterday's balance. Jesus Christ was that a bullet dodged. How the hell did LYV end green?
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Mar 20, 2020 21:13
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pixaal posted:Is that a put that expires on a Thursday? It expires the day before Good Friday, yeah
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Mar 20, 2020 21:15
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https://twitter.com/jstein_wapo/status/1241094788507713542?s=21
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Mar 20, 2020 21:15
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So pretty much nothing that actually helps people directly, yet. Good job. Also here's a depressing map: US Hospital Beds.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:18
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sleepy gary posted:On the other hand, confirmed cases will continue to skyrocket and more and more shutdowns will be coming into play.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:19
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I ate poo poo on a set of calls this afternoon and finished trading hours close to dead even for the week, but essentially all of my high-risk money is in SPY 3.27 230 puts. I believe that next week will be the low water mark. Beginning of the following week, I’m moving everything back into long equities.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:31
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ES down another half-percent so far in after hours trading. Tempted to take my gains and get into cash for the weekend.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:33
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My SPY puts stopped out and of course then we promptly reversed course and drilled like Kamina was encouraging it.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:34
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:The moral of TSLA is don't short it, the stock never makes sense. I really want to short it right now, so the stock is going to rocket up 25%.
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Mar 20, 2020 21:40
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Omerta posted:I ate poo poo on a set of calls this afternoon and finished trading hours close to dead even for the week, but essentially all of my high-risk money is in SPY 3.27 230 puts. Just curious, what makes you believe that this is the bottom? Also, specifically, why do you believe that the low watermark will occur before all of the states are in quarantine / shelter in place order and the full financial impact of society largely stopping entirely is felt?
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Mar 20, 2020 21:41
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Josh Lyman posted:I don't think more cases really matters anymore. Shutdowns, however, do matter. You have to look at the non-linearity. More cases is more cases, and more cases is more mortalities at rates that are known. Until ICU beds saturate. (Freelance Socialist's link claims we're at ~49% utilization average nationwide. NYC is reporting 74% in that tool. Tminz reports ventilators are exhausted in NYC). As the ventilators saturate, now if you get COVID-19 and it affects you severely you can't go to a hospital, you can't get into an ICU, and you can't get a ventilator. If you need a ventilator to live, you die. If you can be limped along with drugs and care and no ventilator you live. But once ICU beds saturate, if you can be limped along with drugs and care and no ventilator, you die. Lethality isn't simply a function of the virus, it's a function of available intervention bandwidth. When you compare the U.S. to Korea and China you will not have a useful predictive model. also: That bandwidth's gonna drop off a cliff. Doctors are not being tested effectively, the doctors who are getting tested aren't getting results in a timely manner, and the PPE that allows doctors to continue to work with a lower risk of infection is going to run out next week. Dwight Eisenhower fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 21:42
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Today was a wash, but this week I'm up 42%. Time to donate to some local foodbanks 
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Mar 20, 2020 21:43
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saintonan posted:ES down another half-percent so far in after hours trading. Tempted to take my gains and get into cash for the weekend. I went cash for the weekend, aside from some cheap USO and JNUG calls that are so OTM that I don't care about them anymore. I want to not think for 48 hours. java posted:Today was a wash, but this week I'm up 42%. Time to donate to some local foodbanks If anyone else wants to do the same: https://www.foodpantries.org/ FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 21:44
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Additionally, even if we know that azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine / chloroquine cure the virus, if 50-60% of the USA is affected by it, we will run out of those medications quickly. It takes time to manufacture those medications and we don't have that much stockpiled because azithromycin isn't that common of an antibiotic as first line and people just don't get malaria anymore. Edit: the NV governor just shut down the TSLA plant in Nevada by closing all non essential businesses. He sounded kinda pissed that other casinos and other businesses were remaining open Lote fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 22:01
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Leperflesh posted:Sure. But, greasyhands at least thinks he's well informed, and he thinks the situation is likely to be better in a month. I think, if I'm reading his latest couple of posts correctly. I'm increasingly uncomfortable trying to make his argument for him. Well, this is where years of playing online high stakes poker helps out - learn to identify and adjust for your biases through analysis of data. The market and investors in general are suffering from normalcy bias - we all desperately want things to return to the way things were as soon as possible, and are underestimating the potential impacts. We discussed this a bit a few days ago in this thread. I'm suffering from this myself - given my job and what I knew I should have been net short 8 weeks ago, factoring in *everything*, not just investment accounts. gently caress, I should have hedged my extended family as well. Also I try not to speak in certainties. Always evaluate outcomes in terms of odds, and adjust as you go. We are still tracking along Italy's path, and Italy is still getting hosed. They had four days they were flat, but now the exponential rise has resumed. And I don't believe we will be able to lockdown as well as they have. Keep an eye on them (and the rest of europe now). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
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Mar 20, 2020 22:08
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:But we climbed from 3235.66 to 3393.52 between 2/3 and 2/21. Why are things 5% more valuable over three weeks with this uncertainty looming? I think the low interest rates probably played a role with that. Certainly here a lot of retirees need a certain yield and that has pushed more and more people to be heavily into shares and away from other investments as interest rates dried up. They might have been concerned about the developments in China at the time but didn’t really have any attractive alternative for their money until it became clear that the place to be was anywhere but shares.
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Mar 20, 2020 22:18
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Yeah. I think normalcy bias explains a lot. TBH I think we could potentially track worse than Italy, because we're still not testing anything close to as many people as we should be, not remotely. A huge number of people have gotten sick, called in, denied a test, burned through the disease, and are recovering, without ever being counted; and each of them likely infected two or more other people. It just absolutely kills me that the WHO offered us what, half a million tests, in February, and we loving said "no". e. ,And specifically, the fewer people who are tested, the worse the mortality rate vs. # of positive tests you get, because you're skipping over more of the non-mortality patients. That's why I think our curve could look worse than Italy's. The only way we do better is if we're doing better right now at mitigation then they were at this point on the curve, by a large enough factor to overcome the not-tested factor I just mentioned. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 22:18
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Ulio posted:Don't mind getting some Jnug calls at these prices, these seems like a drypowder keg. Gold has been extremely volatile, this could explode at any time. If it doesn't its so cheap the loss is going to be minimal. I will get some of the underlying as well. Hey there Jnug buddy. I was tempted to pick up more today and dollar cost average down but decided not to. I agree with your sentiment that it seems tremendously undervalued. A bounce back to say, $30 or so, wouldn't be bad 
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Mar 20, 2020 22:19
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I'm interested in what's going to happen as China and the main European countries come out of lockdown and the US still has it's borders crossed. How does the world economy restart without the primary buyer? Do other countries wait it out or try shift existing supply lines to the countries that can buy now, even if that means not being able to service the US when they open up again. 2020 and forward are going to produce some fascinating new papers on international commerce.
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Mar 20, 2020 22:19
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I'm interested in what's going to happen as China and the main European countries come out of lockdown and the US still has it's borders crossed. How does the world economy restart without the primary buyer? Do other countries wait it out or try shift existing supply lines to the countries that can buy now, even if that means not being able to service the US when they open up again. I have wondered about this too, mainly in the context of China. They’re trying to ramp production up to pre virus levels but most of their export markets are circling the drain into recession if they haven’t already entered one. I’d love to see some recent export and industrial production data out of China but I’m not sure where to find it. Last I heard the shipping industry was racking up losses because there was a huge oversupply of capacity. I can’t see that situation having improved with international trade grinding to a halt. It adds an interesting dynamic because restarting supply chains after a bunch of shipping companies have potentially gone bankrupt and the capacity is no longer there could be tough.
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Mar 20, 2020 22:34
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lol, good idea... Direxion Changes Objectives Of Ten Leveraged Funds To Address Extreme Market Conditions, While Also Closing Eight Funds Due to Limited Interest Since Launch Funds' Exposure will be reduced from 300% to 200% http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200320:nPnbchdLca
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Mar 20, 2020 22:38
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Does anyone else find amusing all the people posting in r/wsb asking for the old "mascot" back not realizing that the big boys have taken the mascot and gone elsewhere?
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Mar 20, 2020 22:42
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Jack Daniels posted:lol, good idea... oh so the 3x wildness aint so cool??  
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Mar 20, 2020 22:46
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah. I think normalcy bias explains a lot. We also had Trump forcing any Americans abroad to funnel back through crowded airports, and still are. Meanwhile the WHO is considering changing the precaution level for covid19 from droplet precautions to airborne. I wouldn't be surprised if our curves end up being worse than Italy due to factors like this.
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Mar 20, 2020 22:48
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Jack Daniels posted:oh so the 3x wildness aint so cool?? What is this baby poo poo. Welcome to europe with 20x leverage funds
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Mar 20, 2020 22:56
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https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1241051728604250112
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Mar 20, 2020 22:57
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 18:18 |
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They were already doing two $500B auctions a day, so this is just confirmation that they'll be continuing it.
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Mar 20, 2020 22:59
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