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Kase Im Licht
Jan 26, 2001

Snowglobe of Doom posted:


It turns out the US numbers for March 20 weren't finalised when you drew up that graph, it should actually look something like this:

.... so there's been a slight downtick in confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US for one day instead of the expected exponential increase but as you said, that might be a short term divergence in the data and we won't really know whether the curve is being flattened or whether things are continuing to ramp up until we get a few more day's worth of data. Italy also had a slight downtick at this point.

The cumulative graph looks like this:

So that's a slight easing off but it's still not looking great.

Yeah I realized sometime this morning I had hosed that up in an additional way. Italy updates its stats on worldometers in one go, but the US goes bit by bit over the course of the day. Differences in reporting protocols among states I guess?

I'm not trying to make any predictions on where it's going to go, but I think if there was any worth to the original US-Italy comparisons people should be continuing that along to see if it holds up, and if doesn't, people should stop using the earlier charts as evidence the US will go the same way. The three day average was mildly interesting. Depending on how you do it it makes the correlation look closer or farther apart. But it's also less reliable since you're shrinking the amount of data by a couple days as well (or not using an average for a couple data points at one end).

The shallow increase gets closer, but shows more divergence at the end. Next 3-5 days should be interesting.

edit: finally fixed it and feel less dumb now.

Kase Im Licht fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Mar 21, 2020

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BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK
Jan 26, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

Globally we have gone from a 10% to 12% fatality rate over these last two days.

The Human Crouton
Sep 20, 2002


What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

Raku
Nov 7, 2012

Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of lights with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change.

Roll Tide

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

most honest country doing best job reporting

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

They’re like 10 days ahead of us in this blowing up

Walked
Apr 14, 2003

Raku posted:

most honest country doing best job reporting

The Italian Pneumonia of 2020

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pn3M-KgTVU

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

Italy's health system is overwhelmed, they are triaging and this means people die because they don't have enough ventilators. People are also isolating at home for a while and I asked that means many cases that pop up are severe ones that were mild cases at home and then had to go into hospitals.

I think Italy was hit extremely hard due to a lot of old people and massive amounts of chinese tourists that are funded through all the sights at Pisa, Verona, Florence and Venice. Probably had a lot of mild cases already before anyone knew this was coming.

Manager Hoyden
Mar 5, 2020

Guys I am beginning to suspect I may not get a trump bucks at all.

DeadFatDuckFat
Oct 29, 2012

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.


Lol trump saying that we should just sanitize the masks instead of throwin them away after one use

DLC Inc
Jun 1, 2011

Hopper posted:

Italy's health system is overwhelmed, they are triaging and this means people die because they don't have enough ventilators. People are also isolating at home for a while and I asked that means many cases that pop up are severe ones that were mild cases at home and then had to go into hospitals.

I think Italy was hit extremely hard due to a lot of old people and massive amounts of chinese tourists that are funded through all the sights at Pisa, Verona, Florence and Venice. Probably had a lot of mild cases already before anyone knew this was coming.

yeah I don't think people realize like more than 95% of Italy's fatalities were people with a lot of health conditions while being 70+ in age. They are like in the top five countries with the oldest population, as well (the USA by comparison is like 60th or some poo poo)

Mnoba
Jun 24, 2010

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

italy is part of the silk road program, and rather than confront the virus head on their pm urged a hug a asian to combat the racism that was occuring.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.

And the US, UK, and Spain are outpacing them. poo poo is not good.

mrfart
May 26, 2004

Dear diary, today I
became a captain.
Serious question,
Would it still be possible to find out if a person did or did not have the virus months after they had it?
I see a lot of people who got sick now, but didn't get tested because it was too expensive or no test kids are available.
If this drags on for a long time (and I'm afraid it will), and it turns out the couple of cases were people seemed to have been infected a second time were an anomaly,
it might be really important to know if you're 'safe' to meet your parents again, or go to work etc...

I can already see the standard resume in a dystopian future with the 'I've had it' checkbox on it.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



I read somewhere that Italy's accounting of coronavirus deaths is more generous about including misc deaths that would have been preventable if not for the hospital situation. Dunno if it's true though.

The Human Crouton
Sep 20, 2002

Mnoba posted:

italy is part of the silk road program, and rather than confront the virus head on their pm urged a hug a asian to combat the racism that was occuring.

Oh cool. Other countries are signing onto China's translucent plan to take over the world.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010

My local ice cream place decided to open today of all days and basically said gently caress the quarantine on Facebook. Nice!

Vakal
May 11, 2008

Baller Time posted:

It's gonna be a race between the US and Russia to see who deals with it the worst, politically

Russia has had zero infections so far so obviously they are just doing fine.

I can't help but wonder if there's a correlation with the fact that they also have zero gay people.

I'm not so good with numbers.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Hopper posted:

I think Italy was hit extremely hard due to a lot of old people and massive amounts of chinese tourists that are funded through all the sights at Pisa, Verona, Florence and Venice. Probably had a lot of mild cases already before anyone knew this was coming.

DLC Inc posted:

yeah I don't think people realize like more than 95% of Italy's fatalities were people with a lot of health conditions while being 70+ in age. They are like in the top five countries with the oldest population, as well (the USA by comparison is like 60th or some poo poo)

What you also need to take into account is that the US population is more than 5 times bigger than the population of Italy, so even though Italy had about 22% percentage of their population aged 65 or over and the US only has about 16%, the actual number of people aged 65 and up in Italy was only 13 million compared to 52 million in the US.

Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Mar 21, 2020

Rolo
Nov 16, 2005

Hmm, what have we here?
Just got this email from the NBAA.

quote:

NY Center traffic,

Be advised, due to a staffing trigger, New York Center has gone ATC Zero. We are just now getting initial information but here's what we have so far...

- All New York majors including TEB and ISP are nationwide ground stopped and departure releases will be suspended until the FAA can figure out what departure gates are available.
- N90 is working in the last of arrivals but has diverted many aircraft out of the area,
-Airborne traffic will be diverted or sent back to origination if they have not entered ZNY airspace yet
-Taxiing aircraft will be sent back to ramp and indefinitely held,

We will continue to provide updates as this information comes in. We expect a full briefing soon as to the extent of the issue. In summary, ZNY is ATC Zero - there are no ATC services available at this time from NY Center until further advised.

James Woods
Jul 15, 2003

pro starcraft loser posted:

I almost went through a handle in a week because of this poo poo, get something stronger.


A handle lasts you a week? My household has been burning through one a day. We've been refilling then with water and storing them in the spare bedroom just in case.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

The Human Crouton posted:

What the gently caress is up with Italy? Their numbers are ridiculous.


Imagine how different things would be right now if China hadn't lied about their statistics by a factor of ten. :thunk:

Rime fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Mar 21, 2020

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Vakal posted:

Russia has had zero infections so far so obviously they are just doing fine.

I can't help but wonder if there's a correlation with the fact that they also have zero gay people.

I'm not so good with numbers.

Iran has no gays either. This myth is busted.

Beachcomber
May 21, 2007

Another day in paradise.


Slippery Tilde

Hopper posted:


It's funny how they are more concerned whether Oktoberfest can take place than the danger of thousands of deaths.

From an extremely utilitarian standpoint, 2% of the population isn't really a lot of people. Sure it's a large number, and people would be sad for a little, but it's not like we have a shortage of human beings on this planet.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Vakal posted:

Russia has had zero infections so far so obviously they are just doing fine.

I can't help but wonder if there's a correlation with the fact that they also have zero gay people.

Both those facts are extremely true btw

The Human Crouton
Sep 20, 2002

Rime posted:

Imagine how different things would be right now if China hadn't lied about their statistics by a factor of ten. :thunk:

Oh, I think about that quite often. I'd like more people to think about it more often. I'd like the Italians to think about it more often.

Mulaney Power Move
Dec 30, 2004

Beachcomber posted:

From an extremely utilitarian standpoint, 2% of the population isn't really a lot of people. Sure it's a large number, and people would be sad for a little, but it's not like we have a shortage of human beings on this planet.

I would not want to jo over model trains with this guy

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Beachcomber posted:

From an extremely utilitarian standpoint, 2% of the population isn't really a lot of people. Sure it's a large number, and people would be sad for a little, but it's not like we have a shortage of human beings on this planet.

An "extremely utilitarian standpoint" is also called moral brain disease

unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Rolo posted:

Just got this email from the NBAA.

What does this has to do with basketball ??

Andrast
Apr 21, 2010


Beachcomber posted:

From an extremely utilitarian standpoint, 2% of the population isn't really a lot of people. Sure it's a large number, and people would be sad for a little, but it's not like we have a shortage of human beings on this planet.

That's like second world war numbers

unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
I'd rather not die in that stupid epidemic if that's ok

Bonster
Mar 3, 2007

Keep rolling, rolling
We've got the first case coming out of my workplace (university health center). Ironically, the testing was done on the very first day of our pandemic protocol, so all the sick people were confined to one floor, which I wasn't on. I'm working from home until the end of the semester, at least, since I'm educational staff, not medical. It's boring, and isolating, but it's what needs to be done and I have a job, so I'm not going to complain. If all else fails, I have seven weeks of PTO I can use.

Our local utility company has announced they won't be doing any cutoffs during the pandemic, and people who had been cut off in the last few weeks can contact them and be reconnected even if they can't pay their bill. So that's good.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

mrfart posted:

Serious question,
Would it still be possible to find out if a person did or did not have the virus months after they had it?
I see a lot of people who got sick now, but didn't get tested because it was too expensive or no test kids are available.
If this drags on for a long time (and I'm afraid it will), and it turns out the couple of cases were people seemed to have been infected a second time were an anomaly,
it might be really important to know if you're 'safe' to meet your parents again, or go to work etc...

I can already see the standard resume in a dystopian future with the 'I've had it' checkbox on it.
Yeah, antibody tests will be able to show total exposure numbers once the tests are developed. It’s the same kinda thing they tend to check for when testing you for HIV/HepC/etc. - not the virus itself, but antibody to it.

Too bad the antibodies aren’t detectable until well after a person is symptomatic.

If a certain type of test called an avidity test is ever developed, it will also be able to tell if you were infected in the last few months or not. Mature antibodies behave differently (tl; dr they bind more strongly). They have tests like this already for toxoplasma gondii and cytomegalovirus because those are nasty if a woman gets them for the first time while pregnant; reinfection during pregnancy isn’t usually as bad because she’ll already have good antibodies for them.

ilmucche
Mar 16, 2016

What did you say the strategy was?

Rolo posted:

Just got this email from the NBAA.

The National basketball association of America is talking about planes?

Sex Skeleton
Aug 16, 2018

For when lonely nights turn bonely

Kase Im Licht posted:


edit: finally fixed it and feel less dumb now.


Where are you getting this data? I was wanting to view something like this to understand whether more extreme measures are coming.

cynic
Jan 19, 2004



mrfart posted:

Serious question,
Would it still be possible to find out if a person did or did not have the virus months after they had it?

I can already see the standard resume in a dystopian future with the 'I've had it' checkbox on it.

Possibly yes; https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic

I'm interested because I was exposed to the CV early (international conference, several cases stemming from it), got mild symptoms two weeks ago, self isolated and am now pretty much recovered (tail end of a cough).

At the point I got worried, they had stopped providing tests for people with mild symptoms unless they had recently been in an affected country, so I didn't get the chance to be tested.

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E

DeadFatDuckFat posted:

Lol trump saying that we should just sanitize the masks instead of throwin them away after one use

That's actually a thing.

DeadFatDuckFat
Oct 29, 2012

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.


Shaocaholica posted:

That's actually a thing.

Really? Does that work on all kinds of n95 or just specific ones

nm I found a NY times article on it https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html

DeadFatDuckFat fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Mar 21, 2020

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

ilmucche posted:

The National basketball association of America is talking about planes?
Air Jordan, but I formed it into a joke

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Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer

Beachcomber posted:

From an extremely utilitarian standpoint, 2% of the population isn't really a lot of people. Sure it's a large number, and people would be sad for a little, but it's not like we have a shortage of human beings on this planet.

From an extremely realistic standpoint, Oktoberfest isn't all that great. Sure it's a spectacle and people would be happily drunk for a few hours, but it's not like you can't drink beer and listen to lovely music at home every day.

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