UKMT March 2020 - Bojo got the Covo - The Something Awful Forums

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT March 2020 - Bojo got the Covo

Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed.
R. Allin-Khan	6	1.60%
R. Burgon	80	21.33%
D. Butler	72	19.20%
A. Rayner	35	9.33%
I. Murray	5	1.33%
P. Flaps	177	47.20%
Total:	375 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Maugrim: Feb 16, 2011; I eat your face

King's College Hospital has made a covid tracker app to try and get a handle on how it's developing and identify who is most at risk earlier - seems like as many people as possible in the UK should use it so I thought I'd post the link here. Please grab it if you can spare a minute a day to report symptoms (or lack of)

http://covid.joinzoe.com

E: M-209 was a lightweight portable pin-and-lug cipher machine developed at the beginning of World War II.

Maugrim fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Mar 24, 2020

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:14

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# ? May 24, 2024 23:31

Strom Cuzewon: Jul 1, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Actually, conversely... why is the reported infection rate so *low* in this country? I know there's a fair few rich worried well getting tests, but as the NHS are apparently only testing people with shortness of breath bad enough to require hospitalisation surely the rate of positive results should be sky-high?

Isn't this just because we're still doing a pitiful number of tests? Or do we have numbers showing how many tests are coming back negative?

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:19

Bardeh: Dec 2, 2004; Fun Shoe

As good of an idea as that sounds, how useful can self-reporting be? I'm hyper-aware of every cough, tickle in my throat, anything right now. People are going to be reporting symptoms en masse.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:20

sassassin: Apr 3, 2010; by Azathoth

Strom Cuzewon posted:

Isn't this just because we're still doing a pitiful number of tests? Or do we have numbers showing how many tests are coming back negative?

We do. I think the low hit rate is down to how many are being used on footballers and club staff rather than actual sick people.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:21

Nothingtoseehere: Nov 11, 2010

Strom Cuzewon posted:

Isn't this just because we're still doing a pitiful number of tests? Or do we have numbers showing how many tests are coming back negative?

We do - you can see the numbers here. While % of tests coming back positive has shot up to around 20% now from the 5%ish last week, most tests still come back negative.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:22

Maugrim: Feb 16, 2011; I eat your face

Bardeh posted:

As good of an idea as that sounds, how useful can self-reporting be? I'm hyper-aware of every cough, tickle in my throat, anything right now. People are going to be reporting symptoms en masse.

You have to assume the researchers at Kings are able to account for that kind of noise in their analysis.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:22

goddamnedtwisto: Dec 31, 2004; If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you; Fun Shoe

Strom Cuzewon posted:

Isn't this just because we're still doing a pitiful number of tests? Or do we have numbers showing how many tests are coming back negative?

8,000 cases out of ~50,000 tests overall, 204 cases out of ~5,000 tests done yesterday (difficult to get an accurate number of tests done, presumably because Boris blustered something about 100,000 tests a day "soon" and nobody wants to admit there's not enough machines in the country to do half that number).

Now the daily number is of course skewed by the fact it takes 4-5 days to get a result back but even if you assume we were only doing half as many tests last week that's still less than 10% of tests *on a sample of people with symptoms* coming up positive. I've absolutely no experience or background to guess where that rate should be, but it feels like it should be considerably higher than that.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:27

Munin: Nov 14, 2004

The answer could be poo poo tests.

One thing that does strike me is that from similar starting points the cases in Germany (where little action was taken for a long time) have ballooned, cases in France (where they kicked off measures earlier) are lower, but they are still the lowest in the UK for some reason despite doing gently caress all.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:36

baka kaba: Jul 19, 2003; PLEASE ASK ME, THE SELF-PROFESSED NO #1 PAUL CATTERMOLE FAN IN THE SOMETHING AWFUL S-CLUB 7 MEGATHREAD, TO NAME A SINGLE SONG BY HIS EXCELLENT NU-METAL SIDE PROJECT, SKUA, AND IF I CAN'T PLEASE TELL ME TO
EAT SHIT

goddamnedtwisto posted:

8,000 cases out of ~50,000 tests overall, 204 cases out of ~5,000 tests done yesterday (difficult to get an accurate number of tests done, presumably because Boris blustered something about 100,000 tests a day "soon" and nobody wants to admit there's not enough machines in the country to do half that number).

Now the daily number is of course skewed by the fact it takes 4-5 days to get a result back but even if you assume we were only doing half as many tests last week that's still less than 10% of tests *on a sample of people with symptoms* coming up positive. I've absolutely no experience or background to guess where that rate should be, but it feels like it should be considerably higher than that.

Maybe it's because it's a skewed sample? It's not just testing the general population like asian countries have been doing, it's testing people who end up at a hospital with those symptoms, which are pretty broad. If you're at a hospital you probably have some condition, and it's not necessarily covid, but they have to check anyway. If the patient population with coughs / respiratory problems / fever / aches is big enough, they'll overwhelm the number of people with the rona, especially since they're suppressing the numbers by telling everyone to stay home and get over it

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:37

peanut-: Feb 17, 2004; Fun Shoe

Munin posted:

The answer could be poo poo tests.

One thing that does strike me is that from similar starting points the cases in Germany (where little action was taken for a long time) have ballooned, cases in France (where they kicked off measures earlier) are lower, but they are still the lowest in the UK for some reason despite doing gently caress all.

The UK doesn't test anyone unless they're in a hospital showing symptoms. Germany is testing lots of people. Reported cases is useless as a comparator between countries.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:40

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

duckmaster posted:

GPs don't tend to mention possibilites because people then insist on getting tested for it. There's little point in bothering to test you for whichever type of flu you've got or not got unless you're in a high-risk category. In which case you'd probably have been given (or at least offered) the vaccination in November.

My wife is high risk and has it every year, but they're generally not good at making the connection - I guess it's mroe likely it's simply that I came ex post facto so there wouldn't really have been much point testing.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:42

Disgusting Coward: Feb 17, 2014

Renaissance Robot posted:

Source?

For the quote, and the crossbows

Email from Knifewarehouse.com, which I swear I only get emails from because I teach archery to kids and they used to do decent cut-price fiberglass arrows that the kids could wreck without making me cry. Full email:

Hello John
Knife Warehouse is still trading & accepting orders. How long we can remain operating is anyone's guess right now in these uncertain times.
Demand is extremely high now, we are managing to ship the same day but please be patient.
One of our suppliers has closed its doors today so we are keeping a close eye on our stock levels as to not over sell.
A massive surge in crossbows sales has meant there are no rifle crossbows left in the country. We have taken delivery of a limited amount of pistol crossbows today though. I have had to limit the bolts (arrows) to one pack per customer as we are very low on those.
I hope you are keeping well and staying safe during this worrying time.
All the best from
Joe & The Knife Warehouse Team.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:44

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

I hope that the only thing that comes out of this is that a bunch of Britons come to their senses after this is over and question whether they really need a 200lb draw compound hunting crossbow in their gardenless flat in Hemel Hempstead and dump them all on eBay so I can get one for dirt cheap.

Guavanaut posted:

Britons come to their senses

I do see the massive hole in my hope though.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:48

baka kaba: Jul 19, 2003; PLEASE ASK ME, THE SELF-PROFESSED NO #1 PAUL CATTERMOLE FAN IN THE SOMETHING AWFUL S-CLUB 7 MEGATHREAD, TO NAME A SINGLE SONG BY HIS EXCELLENT NU-METAL SIDE PROJECT, SKUA, AND IF I CAN'T PLEASE TELL ME TO
EAT SHIT

"you call that a knife?"

*spreads arms, crash zoom out to reveal the interior of a warehouse*

this is a knife!

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:51

Dell_Zincht: Nov 5, 2003

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxmbTp_74LRmpQu5IanvLBQ/videos

uh how the gently caress are any of these knives legal?

edit - they're not, they're from 2016 when they technically were "legal" to carry

# ? Mar 24, 2020 23:59

Wachter: Mar 23, 2007; You and whose knees?

Wow, the crossbow panic buying adds another bucket of flesh-eating worms into the already festering mass of the boomer brain:

"the virus isn't that dangerous, it's scaremongering!"

"I don't care if I die from the non-dangerous virus, it was my time, I've lived a full life"

"oh no! In the apocalyptic aftermath of this non-dangerous virus, the full life that I don't care about losing will be threatened by roving gangs of looters! Better buy a trebuchet"

Logical three-body problem

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:02

baka kaba: Jul 19, 2003; PLEASE ASK ME, THE SELF-PROFESSED NO #1 PAUL CATTERMOLE FAN IN THE SOMETHING AWFUL S-CLUB 7 MEGATHREAD, TO NAME A SINGLE SONG BY HIS EXCELLENT NU-METAL SIDE PROJECT, SKUA, AND IF I CAN'T PLEASE TELL ME TO
EAT SHIT

turns out all the british stereotypes are true, and our mad max future is gonna be that nathan barley tiny bikes scene only with people pointing mini crossbows at each other and going OI!!

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:05

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Wachter posted:

Wow, the crossbow panic buying adds another bucket of flesh-eating worms into the already festering mass of the boomer brain:

"the virus isn't that dangerous, it's scaremongering!"

"I don't care if I die from the non-dangerous virus, it was my time, I've lived a full life"

"oh no! In the apocalyptic aftermath of this non-dangerous virus, the full life that I don't care about losing will be threatened by roving gangs of looters! Better buy a trebuchet"

Logical three-body problem

Aheh this reminds me I build a mini trebuchet once (10kg ballast, about 4 foot long, we used it to play cricket). I think it's still in my bin store god knows if it's still working. Maybe I shold get it back out lol

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:06

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

peanut- posted:

The UK doesn't test anyone unless they're in a hospital showing symptoms. Germany is testing lots of people. Reported cases is useless as a comparator between countries.

My friend in Germany not only got tested ASAP but she knows exactly how many people had it before her because each case number assigned is cumulative. Germany is killing this poo poo while our failing UK government still isn't adequately testing, still isn't cutting out the lovely boss factor on wage support and still hasn't given Iran nukes. Shameful.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:08

Dell_Zincht: Nov 5, 2003

baka kaba posted:

turns out all the british stereotypes are true, and our mad max future is gonna be that nathan barley tiny bikes scene only with people pointing mini crossbows at each other and going OI!!

I'm gonna rouse Colin Furze from his Corona-proof chamber

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:08

Prince John: Jun 20, 2006; Oh, poppycock! Female bandits?

Cerv posted:

christ, the labour leadership election is still dragging on

Feels like the virus will be over by the time it's finished.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:09

Azza Bamboo: Apr 7, 2018; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021

The first breath drawn in post coronavirus britain will be spent uttering the word "Antisemitism"

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:13

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

Azza Bamboo posted:

The first breath drawn in post coronavirus britain will be spent uttering the word "Antisemitism"

It will be Grand Mufti Jeremy Corbyn saying it with a sly smile atop his green energy war rig.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:15

Azza Bamboo: Apr 7, 2018; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021

Grand Mufti Corbyn issues fatwa against capitalism

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:17

Wachter: Mar 23, 2007; You and whose knees?

Final death toll: 250,000

Independent inquiry reveals avoidable mistakes were made in the Conservative government's early response

Yes but what about the mural Jeremy

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:17

goddamnedtwisto: Dec 31, 2004; If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you; Fun Shoe

I've got a vague idea running around my head that I can't really explain to myself fully, so I'm going to throw some questions out into the ether that I can't seem to get a straight answer to from Google so I'm gonna trust a bunch of randos with stupid opinions about snack foods on the internet.

- Why is the asymptomatic period so long, and how is it spreading in that time without coughs and sneezes to give it a good boost?

- Is there any possible reason (beyond underlying health issues) why some people remain asymptomatic, some have only mild symptoms, and some just up and die?

- Beyond the obvious random chance of catching something going up and down depending on hygiene etc is there any additional risk if someone already infected is in constant contact with other infected people? Put another way, is there a disparity between severity of symptoms/death rate *once infected* for medical staff compared to people of similar age/underlying conditions?

- Why *is* Italy so far ahead of the curve compared to the rest of Europe? I know they have an older population so are more likely to have a higher death rate - given the very different test regimes is it possible that accounts for why they started seeing deaths before us on it's own, or is there some other reason why (presumably) Milan copped it first rather than London, Paris, or Frankfurt? All have much higher levels of international travel than Milan.

The idea I have in mind is something along the lines of there's an unknown extra factor involved here beyond random chance that is taking it from asymptomatic/"mild" symptoms (and I know "mild" in this context is no loving picnic) and severe respiratory symptoms.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:17

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

I don't think we've got the science on essentially any of those questions yet?

I mean the thing's only existed for like... 5 months, max.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:19

Wachter: Mar 23, 2007; You and whose knees?

thespaceinvader posted:

Aheh this reminds me I build a mini trebuchet once (10kg ballast, about 4 foot long, we used it to play cricket). I think it's still in my bin store god knows if it's still working. Maybe I shold get it back out lol

Umpire goes to Hawkeye to check for possible use of siege weapons

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:20

MrL_JaKiri: Sep 23, 2003; A bracing glass of carrot juice!

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The idea I have in mind is something along the lines of there's an unknown extra factor involved here beyond random chance that is taking it from asymptomatic/"mild" symptoms (and I know "mild" in this context is no loving picnic) and severe respiratory symptoms.

It's possible, but far from certain. Safe to say that people researching the disease have thought of this.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:23

Azza Bamboo: Apr 7, 2018; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Why *is* Italy so far ahead of the curve compared to the rest of Europe? I know they have an older population so are more likely to have a higher death rate - given the very different test regimes is it possible that accounts for why they started seeing deaths before us on it's own, or is there some other reason why (presumably) Milan copped it first rather than London, Paris, or Frankfurt? All have much higher levels of international travel than Milan.

It's a culture with a lot of face to face contact, huge social gatherings and very tactile greetings/gestures when people are together. Compare that with Japan where people are increasingly alone, or in smaller groups, and they greet each other by bowing from a distance.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:23

Azza Bamboo: Apr 7, 2018; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Is there any possible reason (beyond underlying health issues) why some people remain asymptomatic, some have only mild symptoms, and some just up and die?

The concept of viral loading is being thrown around, hypothesizing that the severity of your symptoms is in proportion to your exposure while infected. Ie if you just caught it off a handrail and went back to your lonely bedsit to isolate you'd be fine, but if you caught it off the 5 people in your household and kept passing it around one another before the symptoms hit, it'd hit hard because you'd loaded up on the virus before it really sunk in.

A bit like pre drinks before going to the pub.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:29

The Question IRL: Jun 8, 2013; Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Why is the asymptomatic period so long, and how is it spreading in that time without coughs and sneezes to give it a good boost?

I am not a qualified doctor or scientist. But my understanding is even before you are symptomatic the virus spreads by

1) You touch your face at some point in the day. The virus is now on your hands.
2) After touching your face but before washing your hands, you touch a surface. The virus is on that surface.
3) Someone touches that surface before disinfecting it. The virus is now on their hands.
4) After touching that surface but before washing their hands, that person touches their face. They have now infected themselves with the virus.

It sounds very plain and boring, and as humans we like to build bigger connections to have things make sense. We almost want it to be some bioweapon or engineered by aliens to kill off everyone with an I in their name.

But the truth is it's just really basic. It's like if God went around and personally punished people for touching their face.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:30

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I've got a vague idea running around my head that I can't really explain to myself fully, so I'm going to throw some questions out into the ether that I can't seem to get a straight answer to from Google so I'm gonna trust a bunch of randos with stupid opinions about snack foods on the internet.

Flamin' Hot.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Why is the asymptomatic period so long, and how is it spreading in that time without coughs and sneezes to give it a good boost?

It may be because it's a novel virus it's also spreading within your body and rupturing lung cells for longer without triggering an immune response. It also may just be kind of a lovely virus at first. It's the massive immune response that causes the inflammation and coughs and sneezes as it rips through the lung lining. The virus can build up to huge levels in lung fluid and be shed in exhaled moisture long before that.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Is there any possible reason (beyond underlying health issues) why some people remain asymptomatic, some have only mild symptoms, and some just up and die?

See above about novel/lovely virus, but there's also comorbidities, smoking, immune history of infection with coronaviruses.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Beyond the obvious random chance of catching something going up and down depending on hygiene etc is there any additional risk if someone already infected is in constant contact with other infected people? Put another way, is there a disparity between severity of symptoms/death rate *once infected* for medical staff compared to people of similar age/underlying conditions?

Initial viral load seems to have a large weighting on later experience among equivalent people, a high initial viral load like in the Birmingham church cases seems to have worse outcomes than from a single exposure. It makes sense if you draw an exponential graph starting with 2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4... and compare it with 3^1, 3^2, 3^3, 3^4...

Also there's a few different strains going around by now.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

- Why *is* Italy so far ahead of the curve compared to the rest of Europe? I know they have an older population so are more likely to have a higher death rate - given the very different test regimes is it possible that accounts for why they started seeing deaths before us on it's own, or is there some other reason why (presumably) Milan copped it first rather than London, Paris, or Frankfurt? All have much higher levels of international travel than Milan.

Old population that despite high smoking and drinking rates seems longer lived than over equivalent populations in Europe, so it's possible that there were less winter flus going around there in the first place. At one point the average age of Covid death for northern Italy was higher than the average life expectancy for Italy.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The idea I have in mind is something along the lines of there's an unknown extra factor involved here beyond random chance that is taking it from asymptomatic/"mild" symptoms (and I know "mild" in this context is no loving picnic) and severe respiratory symptoms.

Possible but too soon to state.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:30

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I've got a vague idea running around my head that I can't really explain to myself fully, so I'm going to throw some questions out into the ether that I can't seem to get a straight answer to from Google so I'm gonna trust a bunch of randos with stupid opinions about snack foods on the internet.

- Why is the asymptomatic period so long, and how is it spreading in that time without coughs and sneezes to give it a good boost?

- Is there any possible reason (beyond underlying health issues) why some people remain asymptomatic, some have only mild symptoms, and some just up and die?

- Beyond the obvious random chance of catching something going up and down depending on hygiene etc is there any additional risk if someone already infected is in constant contact with other infected people? Put another way, is there a disparity between severity of symptoms/death rate *once infected* for medical staff compared to people of similar age/underlying conditions?

- Why *is* Italy so far ahead of the curve compared to the rest of Europe? I know they have an older population so are more likely to have a higher death rate - given the very different test regimes is it possible that accounts for why they started seeing deaths before us on it's own, or is there some other reason why (presumably) Milan copped it first rather than London, Paris, or Frankfurt? All have much higher levels of international travel than Milan.

The idea I have in mind is something along the lines of there's an unknown extra factor involved here beyond random chance that is taking it from asymptomatic/"mild" symptoms (and I know "mild" in this context is no loving picnic) and severe respiratory symptoms.

unknown, unknown, look up high viral load, no one knows common theory is large chinese pop in north going to/fro for new year then went back to their villages. the long delay is very unusual but we're still very early in the analysis stage for initial sources/cultural influences

by unknown i mean there's a thousand theories in the med community but nothing substantiated afaik

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:32

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

Disgusting Coward posted:

Email from Knifewarehouse.com, which I swear I only get emails from because I teach archery to kids and they used to do decent cut-price fiberglass arrows that the kids could wreck without making me cry.

Knife Warehouse sounds like a company a serial killer would run

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:35

ShaneMacGowansTeeth: May 22, 2007; I think this is it... I think this is how it ends

Halfords yesterday agreed to close all their stores for three weeks and pay all employees for the duration, and tonight have u-turned on that and decided to re-open some stores on Thursday. Can't help but feel like more places are going to do the same

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:36

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The idea I have in mind is something along the lines of there's an unknown extra factor involved here beyond random chance that is taking it from asymptomatic/"mild" symptoms (and I know "mild" in this context is no loving picnic) and severe respiratory symptoms.

The HapMap Project figured out over a decade ago that genetic vulnerability to particular diseases does correlate with national borders, it's a potentially very strong argument for migration that never gets made btw, and identifying which weird complex combination of disparate traits leads to that vulnerability is basically impossible atm, it's perfectly possible that you're right and there is a hidden genetic factor making Italians more susceptible.

But I'd lean far more towards stuff like

Azza Bamboo posted:

It's a culture with a lot of face to face contact, huge social gatherings and very tactile greetings/gestures when people are together.

as an explanatory thing, I've no idea if forums user Azza Bamboo is correct about that stuff but at least it could be feasibly tested.

The other thing is that the numbers of confirmed cases across European countries are still low enough that it could easily just be Italy got unlucky.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:38

Azza Bamboo: Apr 7, 2018; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021

Why the initial incubation period?

It could just be evolution. Viruses that come in loud get detected like SARS and Swine Flu, and we put the boot down quick. A virus with a long fuse can just about make it in that environment because by the time we're putting the boot down it's only just started waking up its sleepers.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 00:39