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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Why the poo poo do people keep making gaap adujsted employment jokes? It’s not that they are related, it’s inference that the job numbers might suddenly have adjustments or modifiers that skew to a view point. I think loving with numbers at this point is pretty stupid but who knows with this WH.
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Mar 26, 2020 00:36
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Vox Nihili posted:I mean, sure, why not? Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past 48 hours or so. Just sentiment and a couple strong green days. Sentiment matters a lot. I’m wondering whether we’ve seen the low due to people no longer properly evaluating Coronavirus. A significant part of the public buying into a certain narrative that is endorsing letting more people die to prop up the economy would, well, actually affect the market. It’s not like there is some physical law governing the S&P, it’s all people.
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Mar 26, 2020 01:05
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pmchem posted:It’s not like there is some physical law governing the S&P, it’s all people. I've always wondered how much movement in the S&P is dictated by people making decisions vs. algorithms and sentiment analyses making decisions based on programming, albeit born from people.
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Mar 26, 2020 01:10
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pmchem posted:Just sentiment and a couple strong green days. Sentiment matters a lot. I’m wondering whether we’ve seen the low due to people no longer properly evaluating Coronavirus. A significant part of the public buying into a certain narrative that is endorsing letting more people die to prop up the economy would, well, actually affect the market. It’s not like there is some physical law governing the S&P, it’s all people. The situation on the ground is still evolving rapidly. We get unemployment numbers tomorrow, March job numbers on April 3rd, then Q1 earnings reports from tons of companies throughout April. My original guess (1600) was a half-joke, but I think we absolutely will see sub-2000 within the next two months.
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Mar 26, 2020 01:14
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The VIX is at 63 right now. That does not indicate a bottom in my opinion. Neither do days when the S&P is up (or down) 10%.
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Mar 26, 2020 02:00
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Inner Light posted:I've always wondered how much movement in the S&P is dictated by people making decisions vs. algorithms and sentiment analyses making decisions based on programming, albeit born from people. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/this-is-a-once-in-a-lifetime-buying-opportunity-like-87-and-08-says-ariels-john-rogers.html Sounds like there are some big buyers out there.
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Mar 26, 2020 02:48
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Yeah my buddy in prestige finance is bemoaning that the bottom is long, looong gone  This past month has transferred an unfathomable amount of wealth to the already-rich
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Mar 26, 2020 02:51
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Yeah my buddy in prestige finance is bemoaning that the bottom is long, looong gone EAT at $7/share. BUD at $32/share. Crazy. I got in higher than that on both and still feel like it's a bargain.
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Mar 26, 2020 02:55
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Any Canadians know about this scenario? If I transfer an option position to a cash account from a registered account, and then close the option, does the whole value that comes out of the option count as capital gains or just the profit on the position? I'm 80% sure it's just the profit but I'd like to make sure. Many thanks if anyone knows about this weird edge case. e: My guess is 3.45 mil applying for unemployment insurance or w/e it's called in the states only because I think that between humans inherently procrastinating or being too lazy to file for it right away and the services being so overloaded it's only like 50% of the people that need it that have actually got applications in. My guess at the real number of people unemployed now would be somewhere around 7 to 8 million. VelociBacon fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 03:15
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5.6 mil is my guess
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Mar 26, 2020 03:28
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6,666,666 Bob
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Mar 26, 2020 03:39
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2.9m, Trump touts touts victory in senate, market up 1500 pts i hate missing 2300 buy-in but oh well
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Mar 26, 2020 03:40
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VelociBacon posted:Any Canadians know about this scenario? Not sure why you decided to try this thread, you are getting plenty of help in the other thread. But I'll answer anyway. If you transfer an option out of a registered account, it would come out at FMV at the time of the transfer. If you then close the option, the difference between FMV when it transferred and the price that you closed it at, would be your gain or loss to report. But why would you do this? If you do it from a TFSA, it's a withdrawal and cant be added to your contribution room until the next calendar year. If you do it from an RRSP, there would be a withholding tax, FMV added to your income, and lost contribution room forever.
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Mar 26, 2020 03:46
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Kal Torak posted:Not sure why you decided to try this thread, you are getting plenty of help in the other thread. But I'll answer anyway. Hey, yeah sorry you're right I should have just edited it into a post in the other thread but I felt bad for monopolizing everyone's time there. I appreciate your response. I'd be moving the option out of the TFSA into the cash account to avoid drawing too much CRA suspicion with a great number of short duration speculative options trading. I'm not going to cap my TFSA for probably another 4 years so I'm not concerned about the room. Appreciate your time as always today.
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Mar 26, 2020 04:12
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Cheesemaster200 posted:The WSJ had an interesting article the other day regarding an analysis of ICU beds in different cities and counties. A lot of it was sensationalist bullshit, but it did have an interesting analysis of healthcare capacity versus other countries. Apparently our history of being fat and unhealthy has had the positive side effect of increasing critical care capacity. The US has double the amount of beds than Italy and six times that of China. This brings another possibility with this crisis, in that the surge of patients will hit the healthcare system but it will be able to deal with it due to added capacity; bend but not break if you will. Quiz: If your number of cases, required ICU beds, etc. is doubling roughly every 3 days, how much extra time would having double the capacity buy you?
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Mar 26, 2020 04:51
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Corona can remain prolific longer than your hospitals can stay open.
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Mar 26, 2020 04:54
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Baddog posted:And most of the money in the market is being run by people like your parents.
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Mar 26, 2020 04:55
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The way new outlets keep talking about the stimulus bill as if it's already passed is journalistic malpractice. "The Senate signs stimulus billl", "the Senate and White House have reached a deal". Hey idiots, there's another half to our legislative body that has to pass it before it's a law and they're called the House. They very intentionally did not pass it today and it's not guaranteed they will tomorrow either. Pelosi seems pleased with the result so I think it probably will pass strange feelings re Daisy fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 05:17
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:The way new outlets keep talking about the stimulus bill as if it's already passed is journalistic malpractice. "The Senate signs stimulus billl", "the Senate and White House have reached a deal". Hey idiots, there's another half to our legislative body that has to pass it before it's a law and they're called the House. They very intentionally did not pass it today and it's not guaranteed they will tomorrow either. Pelosi seems pleased with the result so I think it probably will pass It's done that way on purpose: to put immense pressure on the remaining chamber (or the POTUS) to get it done.
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Mar 26, 2020 06:00
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From The Guardian: Oil price may fall to $10 a barrel as world runs out of storage space
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Mar 26, 2020 06:40
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Accretionist posted:From The Guardian: Oil price may fall to $10 a barrel as world runs out of storage space
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Mar 26, 2020 06:44
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Pollyanna posted:Corona can remain prolific longer than your hospitals can stay open. longer than this cat's rapsheet! (ohwhaa-tajerr-kiammm lol) Etown fucked around with this message at 06:58 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 06:47
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Are there any good gasoline plays? With how much oil has gone down lately, gas is only down less than 10% around here, someone’s making bank. e: although demand has gone to poo poo to be fair. Wifi Toilet fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 08:43
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The idea that we've missed the bottom just days before COVID starts to kill more than a 9/11 of Americans every. single. day. is outrageous. Time will tell or whatever but this thing is going to bloom badly before it gets better. Somebody claimed that this would kill fewer than 50K Americans which is almost certainly a mathematical impossibility at this point.
EAT FASTER!!!!!! fucked around with this message at 11:18 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 11:15
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Somebody claimed that this would kill fewer than 50K Americans which is almost certainly a mathematical impossibility at this point. You realise they'll probably just stop testing them yeah? When is the unemployment figure due out?
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Mar 26, 2020 11:31
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gay picnic defence posted:You realise they'll probably just stop testing them yeah? In around 2 hours I think?
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Mar 26, 2020 11:33
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gay picnic defence posted:When is the unemployment figure due out? At 8:30 AM ET, about an hour before market open.
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Mar 26, 2020 11:44
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Anton Chigurh posted:At 8:30 AM ET, about an hour before market open. Cheers. Any chance it's already been priced in or is it likely to create a bit of panic?
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Mar 26, 2020 11:49
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The last two days have been rocketing green, so I doubt it has been fully priced in. In a logical world there would be a steep drop today. In reality it'll probably go through the roof.
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Mar 26, 2020 11:54
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gay picnic defence posted:Cheers. Any chance it's already been priced in or is it likely to create a bit of panic? Based on this entire coronavirus response by the markets I have some severe doubts that they are pricing in anything right now. It turns out that situations where there is no way to spend money to fix a problem and each person investing really just needs to make a best-guess judgement on an outcome that feels like it could really go either way is the market's least favorite way to operate. Funny that.
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Mar 26, 2020 11:59
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The coolest part of the bailout bill is the loans to small businesses turn to grants if the money is spent on payroll, utilities, or rent. So they’re incentivizing business owners to bring in people and maximize production for the duration of the public health crisis.
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Mar 26, 2020 12:06
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Shelvocke posted:The last two days have been rocketing green, so I doubt it has been fully priced in. In a logical world there would be a steep drop today. It really depends on what the released numbers are. IMO anything less than 3 million might cause another rise, whereas anything above 5 million is a sharp drop. But I'm just guessing at this point, too.
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Mar 26, 2020 12:46
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Jobs claims numbers, everyone's guess quick and dirty: Rime - 12.5 million  regular mike - 8,008,135m Skipdogg - 6 to 8m Risky Bisquick - 7m SirPablo - 5 to 7m Residency Evil - 6.69m latinotwink1997 - 666,666,666m Josh Lyman - 6.16m Vox Nihili - 6m enraged_camel - 5.7m pixaal - 5,666,420m Lote - 5.6m saintonan - 5.5m Anton Chigurh - 5.38m GramCracker - 5.12m GoGoGadgetChris - 4.89m Omerta - 4.8m java - 4.69m Oscar Wild - 4.4m Splinter - 4,206,969m Woodchip - 4.20m Argonox - 3 to 4m Doccykins - 3.5m orange sky - 3.48m Hitman - 2 to 3m Freezer - 2.95m pmchem - 2.9m FreelanceSocialist - 2.25m movax - 1m Tokyo Sex Whale - 780,000 thousand 
Hit Man fucked around with this message at 13:38 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 13:22
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3.48M from me!
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Mar 26, 2020 13:24
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Put me down for 6.9M. Don't think anyone's done that yet.
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Mar 26, 2020 13:29
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pmchem posted:2.9m, Trump touts touts victory in senate, market up 1500 pts https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 3.283m, almost on my mark!
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Mar 26, 2020 13:31
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3.2Mil. Jeez.
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Mar 26, 2020 13:31
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:The coolest part of the bailout bill is the loans to small businesses turn to grants if the money is spent on payroll, utilities, or rent. So they’re incentivizing business owners to bring in people and maximize production for the duration of the public health crisis. They're still going to lay everyone off. Now they get to put their spouse and kids on payroll to get loans forgiven
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Mar 26, 2020 13:33
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pmchem posted:https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf drat, I was thinking of revising mine to 6.9/2. Yikes.
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Mar 26, 2020 13:33
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ffs orange sky lol
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Mar 26, 2020 13:34
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