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MiddleOne posted:Apply for elderly care, they're starving for more people even on a normal year. Ya. My municipality will hire anyone without Corona symptoms on the spot. I'm sure they will take a carnie. As long as you're not an evil clown or a chronic knife juggler I guess.
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Mar 28, 2020 07:11
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I’m loving our Swedish strategy of keeping enough people home to gently caress the economy but also making sure that we can keep enough stuff open to spread the virus.
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Mar 28, 2020 21:12
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Hedenius posted:I’m loving our Swedish strategy of keeping enough people home to gently caress the economy but also making sure that we can keep enough stuff open to spread the virus. Went for a walk today. The sidwalks outside restaurants and cafés were full of tightly packed people drinking in the sun. Including lots of 60+ year olds, some of them obviously not in perfect health (using walkers etc). Half the country are self-imposing quarantine, the other half is annoyed that people look at them sideways when they cough in their hands at the supermarket. Because people are dumb and don't care. E: I mean, there has to been something inbetween martial law and having half of Stockholm's upper middle class spread corona to rural places with aging populations and underdimensioned health care facilities this Easter. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Mar 28, 2020 |
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Mar 28, 2020 21:39
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lilljonas posted:E: I mean, there has to been something inbetween martial law and having half of Stockholm's upper middle class spread corona to rural places with aging populations and underdimensioned health care facilities this Easter. Cardiac posted:You are saying that blowing up the bridges in Stockholm and blocking the tunnels would do wonders to contain Covid19?
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Mar 28, 2020 22:09
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Mercrom posted:its funny how store staff has to check my age at self-checkout when i buy an energy drink but they still have the open salad bar, lösviktsgodis etc. also all the buffets are still open Wait..what? In Norway grocery stores didn't even wait for the government to shut salad bars down. Bakery goods are wrapped up and the machines that slices bread are removed.
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Mar 28, 2020 23:24
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Alhazred posted:Wait..what? In Norway grocery stores didn't even wait for the government to shut salad bars down. Bakery goods are wrapped up and the machines that slices bread are removed. Yeah they shut the salad bars like last week around me. Pic a mix candy is still available everywhere I go. And packed as all get out on Saturday, pandemic be damned.
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Mar 28, 2020 23:33
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What's the point of surviving if it means no lördagsgodis?
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Mar 28, 2020 23:40
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Fader Movitz posted:What's the point of surviving if it means no lørdagsgodis? They may take my freedom, but they won't take my smågodt!
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Mar 28, 2020 23:46
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Fader Movitz posted:What's the point of surviving if it means no lördagsgodis? 
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Mar 28, 2020 23:55
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Katt posted:Scandinavia Corona fight chart: Scandinavia Corona fight chart: Denmark: 2,201 Sweden: 3,447 Norway: 4,032 Baltic Corona fight chart: Latvia: 305 Lithuania: 394 Estonia: 645 Finland: 1,167 I was informed that Russia's figures were inaccurate so we're no longer counting Russia. Katt fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 06:10
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Katt posted:Scandinavia Corona fight chart: Interestingly, one way to show this is to use logarithmic scales to plot things, although it helps to watch the video that explains the graph, and also covers some caveats: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
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Mar 29, 2020 11:19
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Katt posted:Scandinavia Corona fight chart: D. Ebdrup posted:For what it's worth, it's still exponential growth. 3% death rate for those hospitalized 50% for those who end up in the ICU (UK numbers) 100% for those who would've ended up in the ICU if there was room The final death toll in Scandinavia is gonna be DK: 235K SE: 424K NO: 215K or roughly 4% of the population of each country, any deaths due to lack of available medical attention for other poo poo not included. This assumes no expansion of ICU capacity, and that ICU capacity is the only bottleneck. At the peak of the outbreak, 90% of patients needing ICU treatment will be left to die in favor of treating someone with better chances of survival or "societal value".
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Mar 29, 2020 16:35
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We also need to consider all the dead people that Norway are secretly disposing of to explain their low death to infected ratio.
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Mar 29, 2020 17:52
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Katt posted:We also need to consider all the dead people that Norway are secretly disposing of to explain their low death to infected ratio.
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Mar 29, 2020 18:28
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Well, I didn't use their death stats, so no need. I guess maybe the Norwegians are gonna dump 100K bodies in their fjords? Maybe use them to feed salmon? Catapult them over the border to give Sweden a higher toll. They’re alive when they’re flung but don’t land living.
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Mar 29, 2020 18:29
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teen witch posted:Catapult them over the border to give Sweden a higher toll. They’re alive when they’re flung but don’t land living. Technically that's still "corona-related", so it counts.
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Mar 29, 2020 18:35
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teen witch posted:Catapult them over the border to give Sweden a higher toll. I knew it!
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Mar 29, 2020 20:19
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Kastrup Airport stuffing everyone with a fever or cough onto an eastbound train.
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Mar 29, 2020 20:23
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Katt posted:We also need to consider all the dead people that Norway are secretly disposing of to explain their low death to infected ratio. Secret of having fewer confirmed infected people is to test fewer people. 
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Mar 29, 2020 20:29
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Based on those numbers holding, and this being the exponential part of a logistics curve that tops out at 60% of the population having been infected, as well as the following: I think this is too high. 60% of the countries might end up infected but we are not looking at 100% of those requring hospitalization. So that ~4% death rate does not apply to all of the infected, but rather those who come down with severe symptoms (or rather whatever it is in total for all those hospitalized, I assumed you calculated this and applied it to 60% infected). Part of the reason this disease has been able to spread as it has is because many experience mild symptoms and therefore have been able to infect others as they've been moving about and interacting with others.
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Mar 29, 2020 20:37
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Based on those numbers holding, and this being the exponential part of a logistics curve that tops out at 60% of the population having been infected, as well as the following: Also, the case ratio in China turned out to be much closer to 1%, and WHO estimates it'll be 0.3% to 1%. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 20:53
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adhuin posted:Secret of having fewer confirmed infected people is to test fewer people.
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Mar 29, 2020 20:54
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I thought the fatality rate for people with no health complications was like 0.2%? 4% seems crazy high if the assumption includes successfully isolating the most immunocompromised and keeping the rate below hospital capacity.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:06
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A report released about a week ago posted:Based on knowledge from China about the clinical course of COVID-19, the State Serum Institute has prepared a prognosis for disease development in Denmark. It is estimated that 80% of those infected have mild to moderate disease. 15% will need hospital treatment and 5% will need intensive hospital care. Based on this knowledge, the forecast in Denmark is that a total of 11,600 patients are expected to need hospitalization during the epidemic period, which is expected to last 12 weeks. Of these, 2,900 patients are expected to require intensive care.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:14
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I have a gut feeling (sorry) that we'll fare better than most other countries due to our culture and social structure. If there's any truth to the hypothesis that viral load and exposure to other infected during incubation is the main factor determining how severe the symptoms and progression will be, we're in luck. We don't socialize much. We don't visit our parents/grandparents much. Our public transportation is less crowded than many other countries. We try hard to minimize the duration of hospitalization. And so forth. I expect we have extremely wide-spread infection, but most cases turn out asymptomatic as there is little exposure to other infected. We might see some tragedies resulting from health and nursing home staff who are infected and thus subject elderly and patients to extended exposure - but nursing homes in Denmark are sadly not really heavy on the time staff spend on those who live there. If this theory holds, we should start seeing an influx of people who attended crowded parties or who live in households with very few m^2 per resident. Also, does anyone else find it disturbing that 3 hospital directors in Denmark have been tested positive? Not because of the positive result in itself, but because actual patient-facing medical staff are being denied tests. I have another gut feeling about this - they expect that a large percentage of the staff are infected, but want them to get immunity before pressure mounts for real. Some hospitals have directly urged staff with coughs and other mild symptoms to keep working - while denying them testing. To me that indicates that top management actively encourage conditions where spread can occur. Either way, if the progression in Scandinavia continues like this, staying close to linear than exponential - then there's definitely a cultural or genetic thing at play. I don't really believe it could be the latter (we're really not the genetically different to the rest of Europe for this to make sense). So it would have to be culture, then.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:20
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i think we really just don't have much slack in our healthcare systems and dozens of medics getting sick would leave us with our systems overwhelmed already
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Mar 29, 2020 21:30
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PederP posted:I have a gut feeling (sorry) that we'll fare better than most other countries due to our culture and social structure. If there's any truth to the hypothesis that viral load and exposure to other infected during incubation is the main factor determining how severe the symptoms and progression will be, we're in luck. We don't socialize much. We don't visit our parents/grandparents much. Our public transportation is less crowded than many other countries. We try hard to minimize the duration of hospitalization. And so forth. V. Illych L. posted:i think we really just don't have much slack in our healthcare systems and dozens of medics getting sick would leave us with our systems overwhelmed already Report from earlier posted:When the epidemic with COVID-19 peaks, we must also be ready to treat patients with other acute and life-threatening conditions. That will be other patients with severe and catastrophic breathing and circulation failure. We have ensured that there is also the capacity to treat this group and the total number of intensive places with respirators, combined with additional respirators from stores, will thus be 1,260 in the public health system in Denmark. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 21:34
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D. Ebdrup posted:Gut feelings really don't matter, though. Medical science is an actual science which involves data, statistics, and empiricism. Absolutely true, and I'm not trying to represent this as anything but idle musings. But those all come after the fact. In a strange way, I'm relieved that Sweden has chosen such a different course. if we do happen to continue on a surprisingly flat trajectory, I'd otherwise worry that the premature conclusions would be made about the efficacy of our lockdown. How the Swedish statistics progress will serve to qualify such a conclusion. The Danish lockdown is on a completely different level than that in most other countries - it's far less strict, so it would be highly illogical if it was more effective. Unless there are other factors at play like number of individuals per household and exposure patterns. I guess we'll see in the coming days and weeks what the statistics turn out to be. But I wish our leaders would take a stricter stance on lockdown measures - better safe than sorry. We should ban any and all non-household socialization (with some allowance for singles to pick a single "contact" household) - there's no economic cost to this, and it wouldn't be for long. Just until we know how the progression looks. Same with masks. Should just be made mandatory. Doesn't matter what quality they are. It's going to stop some of the spittle from the infected. If we do end up with five or six digit deaths, our politicians will have blood on their hands for being so lax and puny in their lockdown measures.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:46
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Randarkman posted:I think this is too high. 60% of the countries might end up infected but we are not looking at 100% of those requring hospitalization. So that ~4% death rate does not apply to all of the infected, but rather those who come down with severe symptoms (or rather whatever it is in total for all those hospitalized, I assumed you calculated this and applied it to 60% infected). Part of the reason this disease has been able to spread as it has is because many experience mild symptoms and therefore have been able to infect others as they've been moving about and interacting with others. D. Ebdrup posted:That doesn't seem right at all, or it's some kind of incredibly worst-case scenario? Zulily Zoetrope posted:I thought the fatality rate for people with no health complications was like 0.2%? 4% seems crazy high if the assumption includes successfully isolating the most immunocompromised and keeping the rate below hospital capacity. PederP posted:Also, does anyone else find it disturbing that 3 hospital directors in Denmark have been tested positive? Not because of the positive result in itself, but because actual patient-facing medical staff are being denied tests. I have another gut feeling about this - they expect that a large percentage of the staff are infected, but want them to get immunity before pressure mounts for real. Some hospitals have directly urged staff with coughs and other mild symptoms to keep working - while denying them testing. To me that indicates that top management actively encourage conditions where spread can occur.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:47
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A Buttery Pastry posted:All I'm seeing here is that patient-facing medical staff will infect every patient, who either end up having to stay (and likely die in the hospital since they were already there for other reasons) or go home and infect their family or everyone in nursing homes. And you wonder why I'm skeptical about us keeping this under control. I absolutely do not think we have any degree of control. If we manage to weather this with a non-catastrophic result it will be because of sheer luck. e: I started out optimistic, but I'm worried the government is going to cave to the onslaught of "think of the economy" stories across media. As if the economy will magically recover once people are allowed to visit restaurants, hairdressers and cinemas. It's so dumb. The lockdown is not the primary driver of the economic downturn, and the actual issues would remain if we ended the lockdown tomorrow: export markets imploding, consumers having fear for the future and the stupid asset-bubble threatening to pop at the worst possible time. PederP fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 21:59
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I'm going off the 60% need to get infected for herd immunity to kick in and the disease subsiding on its own. Obviously that's gonna result in far more deaths than only 0.2% of the population getting it. 11K cases would mean we're gonna peak within two to three weeks, and the disease never reappearing as control measures are relaxed. Which would imply a standing quarantine order for anyone crossing the border, probably lasting until this time next year when it has burned through every other country or someone has made a vaccine. And yes, the report I've been quoting from also mentions it'll peak in week 16. Measles spreads through coughing and sneezing, and needs ~95% of the population vaccinated for herd immunity to be achieved - have a look at what happened in the states when enough anti-vaxxers got their kids out of vaccination systems, which brought herd-immunity under 90% in local areas. Also - one thing about measles is that, if you get it as a kid you've got a pretty good chance of surviving, whereas adults who get it succumb to it more often. PederP posted:I absolutely do not think we have any degree of control. If we manage to weather this with a non-catastrophic result it will be because of sheer luck. This is NOT an actual plague in spite of the fact that some idiots on social media call it that, goods and services can still be exchanged although there is naturally some backlog accruing. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 23:26
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D. Ebdrup posted:There's no loving way it's only 60% for herd immunity! Where the gently caress are you getting these numbers? The 60% meme comes from influenza. It does not make sense, but that is where it originates. E: angående framtidsforskare så fick jag den här perfekta posten i mitt LinkedIn-flöde: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fardost_framtiden-futureskills-activity-6648224119307542528-o8qO Futurology! Potrzebie fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 04:43
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evil_bunnY posted:That's literally what it is. Sweden is testing loving nobody. This is obviously wrong as Sweden is doing an average number of test per capita in comparison. Sadly, the correct course of action is going to be counted in dead per capita, in the same way as homicides are used as measure of violence in a society. Also kinda interesting how calls for repression are increasing during a crisis and especially from all political sides.
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Mar 30, 2020 05:07
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D. Ebdrup posted:There's no loving way it's only 60% for herd immunity! Where the gently caress are you getting these numbers? D. Ebdrup posted:The only fuckers who've been talking about the economy in all of this are a liberal think-tank which I brought up earlier, and they don't deserve the attention so I'm not giving it to them. PederP posted:I absolutely do not think we have any degree of control. If we manage to weather this with a non-catastrophic result it will be because of sheer luck.
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Mar 30, 2020 05:56
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Cardiac posted:
No need for a crisis, sweden is getting hella repressive anyway, more cameras, drones, ljudskrämmor, lying cops in the media, "inbillad nödsituation", etc. It has been like this for a few years now If you live in the "orten". Swedes dont care tho, they all got a boner for that poo poo. Tbf Im starting to prefer danes to Swedes, The danes seems more honest about going nazi atleast. While The Swedes keep on identifying as left/liberal while pushing right wing policies and talking points.
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Mar 30, 2020 07:10
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How does herd immunity work when reinfection is a thing? Are the reinfected not contagious?D. Ebdrup posted:The only fuckers who've been talking about the economy in all of this are a liberal think-tank which I brought up earlier, and they don't deserve the attention so I'm not giving it to them. Nah. Lars Løkke and Asger Aamund are not members of CEPOS, for one. You'll see this argument mounting in the coming weeks, I'm certain. On the flipside there are the morons raving about SHEEPLE surrendering their FREEDOMS when it's "not even as bad as the flu". At least the CEPOS ghouls are honest about letting people die for Mammon.
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Mar 30, 2020 10:30
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D. Ebdrup posted:.
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Mar 30, 2020 10:55
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Alhazred posted:The reason why we have measles vaccine was that not only did kids die, they were especially at risk because their immune system was not fully developed. Letting yourself willingly be infected is insane because you have no idea how the disease will affect your body. And even if you survive the process and become immun that doesn't mean that you stop carry the disease to others. I'm voluntarily self-isolating, exactly because I'm immunocompromised and a newly diagnosed diabetic.
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Mar 30, 2020 10:58
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D. Ebdrup posted:Am I thinking of one of the other things kids get vaccinated for, then - or just pulling poo poo out of my rear end? Chickenpox, maybe? That's worse for adults, IIRC.
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Mar 30, 2020 11:15
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D. Ebdrup posted:Am I thinking of one of the other things kids get vaccinated for, then - or just pulling poo poo out of my rear end? We vaccinate kids to keep them from dying, not because getting sick is inconvenient.
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Mar 30, 2020 11:28
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