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SplitSoul posted:Chickenpox, maybe? That's worse for adults, IIRC. Chickenpox vaccine isn't part of the vaccination given routinely to kids as far as I know, mostly because of it's low mortality rate.
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Mar 30, 2020 11:31
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SplitSoul posted:How does herd immunity work when reinfection is a thing? Are the reinfected not contagious? Several pundits have started to champion the argument for "the cure can be worse", "lives can be too expensive", etc. Poul Madsen from Ekstra Bladet is a prime example of this with his editorial from the other day (where he made a bid for Flu Bro Prime by asking if saving "100 elderly" was really worth this much). He is absolutely not right-wing, but is much closer to the populist center-leftist parts of the Social Democrats. Media is bleeding heavily right now - many of them are seeing projections that they will not be able to survive for long at current revenue levels. I'm pretty sure that the editorial line across the board has been mandated to be one of optimism and focus on rational prioritization. It's weird to see outlets that would usually favor clickbait and "THE END IS NIGH" spin everything in an optimistic light. For example Trump's message that 100-200k dead would a good job was spun into "Trump expects up to 200k dead". No, that was his best case scenario - he talked about 2.2 million as a worst case scenario in the same press conference. If not for editorial mandates of optimism, I'm pretty sure that would have been the headline "Trump says millions could die!". It's nice that sensationalism is (slightly) less than normal, but it's disturbing to see Ekstra Bladet and Politiken agree with CEPOS and DI. That tells me that something is fishy. My wife had an interesting take on the push for reopening: It's partly pushed by parents who are unable to cope with having their children at home. The middle class is being forced to spend time with their poorly parented children outside of a holiday setting and it's driving them insane. There's a lot of families who have failed miserably in parenting, creating spoiled, unruly and selfish children. Those parents who have insisted that institutions and schools adjust to the children and not the other way around are now experiencing first hand what it's like to deal with. I think it's a good point. I know that especially small kids can be demanding, and I'm not trying to mock those who are shut inside with young kids that simply need to expend energy to not go berserk. I am very grateful to have a wife and son that I genuinely enjoy spending time with. Those who live in situations of abuse or high conflict must surely suffer greatly. But I do find some satisfaction from the complaints of selfish parents suffering the unreasonable expectations of their offspring. Perhaps they will gain some respect for teachers after this, and maybe even try to teach their kids to act with more restraint and respect in the classroom.
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Mar 30, 2020 11:55
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Cardiac posted:Also kinda interesting how calls for repression are increasing during a crisis and especially from all political sides. how is it interesting
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Mar 30, 2020 13:05
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Er jeg paranoid hvis jeg tolker vagheten om alternativer/når maktbruk er berettiget i denne kronikken som småtegn på at det ligger en libertarianer å lurer bak den? Er i grunn enig i at krisa byr på store muligheter or autoritarianisme, men den byr da på muligheter for staten å vise seg fra en god side også, og ikke minst for å sette spørsmål ved kapitalismen. Blir alltid ytterst skeptisk når folk gjør vag kritikk av maktbruk / staten som lovgivende kraft uten å forklare nøyaktig hva de har et problem med, og hva alternativet er. Anarkister er som regel kanskje klar i talen når det gjelder sånne ting. edit: https://www.nrk.no/ytring/kunsten-a-fa-tannkremen-tilbake-i-tuben-1.14961237 thotsky fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 14:23
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PederP posted:Several pundits have started to champion the argument for "the cure can be worse", "lives can be too expensive", etc. Poul Madsen from Ekstra Bladet is a prime example of this with his editorial from the other day (where he made a bid for Flu Bro Prime by asking if saving "100 elderly" was really worth this much). He is absolutely not right-wing, but is much closer to the populist center-leftist parts of the Social Democrats. Social democrats are really, really, really, not center-left anymore. They’re as neoliberal as venstre and as ethno-nationalist as Df. It really isn’t just populism. The only policy areas where they have even remotely leftists ideals is paying lip service to environmentalism and being anti-academic. PederP posted:My wife had an interesting take on the push for reopening: It's partly pushed by parents who are unable to cope with having their children at home. The middle class is being forced to spend time with their poorly parented children outside of a holiday setting and it's driving them insane. There's a lot of families who have failed miserably in parenting, creating spoiled, unruly and selfish children. If my neighbors are anything to go by, that is 100% the case. I’m pretty sure they are wondering why the child care workers didn’t do a better job raising their kids, while having voted for politicians who slashed everything in the public sector, especially child care, for the last decade.
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Mar 30, 2020 14:39
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PederP posted:Perhaps they will gain some respect for teachers after this, and maybe even try to teach their kids to act with more restraint and respect in the classroom.  You are adorable.
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Mar 30, 2020 15:37
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The only takeaway the middle class will take from all this is “why am I paying taxes for a healthcare that can’t even deal with a rapidly growing pandemic?!” Newspaper pundits will nod solemnly while stretching their arms in preparation for the next onslaught of neoliberal think tank bulletpoints.
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Mar 30, 2020 16:29
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Mumps, measles, German measles(rubella), diptheria, tetanus, polio, whooping cough, rotavirus, haemophilus influenzae, chicken pox (varicella)
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Mar 30, 2020 16:48
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This is a good strategy by the PM - promise that we can start reopening in 14 days if the spread remains within capacity. That's going to make lots of people super-duper angry at anyone who isn't observing the guidelines. And if the most likely (IMO) outcome occurs - that this is not at all under control, she can point the finger at those who failed to act as they were asked, and blame the stricter measures on those people. "I really wanted to normalize society and save the economy, but I can't because of all those people who didn't do what we asked. Now please go out and shame them for me, will you?". I also think the instruction to start using all hours of the day to avoid crowding is good. We need to transition into being a 24-hour society to minimize human contact even further. If for some reason we actually manage to have a manageable spread, then I believe it's confirmed that we're the most anti-social and misanthropic culture on Earth. Oh, and my father-in-law was just diagnosed with cancer today. gently caress that. Chemotherapy during a pandemic is a bit of a bummer. PederP fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 17:02
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Rust Martialis posted:Mumps, measles, German measles(rubella), diptheria, tetanus, polio, whooping cough, rotavirus, haemophilus influenzae, chicken pox (varicella) And a partridge in a pear tree.
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Mar 30, 2020 17:03
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SplitSoul posted:How does herd immunity work when reinfection is a thing? Are the reinfected not contagious? If reinfection turns out to be an actual widespread thing then I think that means the disease basically gets to burn through the population in waves until it either mutates into something akin to the common cold, we enter permanent lockdown mode, or we find some treatment that pharmaceutical giants can grow richer on, or we just accept that the median age drops precipitously while everyone over 30 ends up with bad lungs. SplitSoul posted:Chickenpox, maybe? That's worse for adults, IIRC.
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Mar 30, 2020 17:26
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PederP posted:This is a good strategy by the PM - promise that we can start reopening in 14 days if the spread remains within capacity. That's going to make lots of people super-duper angry at anyone who isn't observing the guidelines. And if the most likely (IMO) outcome occurs - that this is not at all under control, she can point the finger at those who failed to act as they were asked, and blame the stricter measures on those people. "I really wanted to normalize society and save the economy, but I can't because of all those people who didn't do what we asked. Now please go out and shame them for me, will you?". Her speech this time especially, as it emphasized how it is in our best interests if we choose to have a little carrot as a treat, or we default to the stick. Hooray for the anti-social and misanthropic ways of living that I've been practicing all my life. Also, sorry to hear about your father. I got diagnosed with cancer about 4 years ago - going through it was the hardest thing I've ever done in my life. At present I don't know whether I'll be doing stuff in June regarding my otherwise-regular CT scans (since CT-scanners are understandably quite busy), because I'm immune-compromised due to the high-dose chemo- and radiation-therapy I got. If you need to talk with someone, or just vent, in The Goon Doctor subforums there's a cancer thread that you're welcome in, friend.
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Mar 30, 2020 17:28
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A Buttery Pastry posted:If reinfection turns out to be an actual widespread thing then I think that means the disease basically gets to burn through the population in waves until it either mutates into something akin to the common cold, we enter permanent lockdown mode, or we find some treatment that pharmaceutical giants can grow richer on, or we just accept that the median age drops precipitously while everyone over 30 ends up with bad lungs. It infects via ACE2 receptors afaik? I read that Lupus patients (my wife is one) have almost none of those, so I'm pretty sure it's viable to live without those (but probably with tons of nasty side-effects). Come to think of it, Lupus patients are almost all on hydroxychloroquine. Wild speculation but it's not impossible that there's a connection between the effects of that drug and ACE2 downregulation - which would explain how it (apparently, I guess they jury is still out) has an effect on this virus. Personally I am skeptical of the vaccine solution, but expect numerous viable treatments to appear, that will make this one of this illnesses which is relatively harmless if caught early on, but dangerous if it goes unnoticed. I also expect the median age actually drop because of this until natural selection kicks in. D. Ebdrup posted:Also, sorry to hear about your father. I got diagnosed with cancer about 4 years ago - going through it was the hardest thing I've ever done in my life. Thanks, that's very considerate of you. It was my father-in-law, so this is mostly awful for my wife. I'll tell her about the forum and thread. I did try to turn her into a goonette on a few occasions, maybe this is actually a relevant time. PederP fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 17:45
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I knew she'd buckle to the number ghouls, just didn't expect it to be this quick.
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Mar 30, 2020 17:55
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SplitSoul posted:I knew she'd buckle to the number ghouls, just didn't expect it to be this quick.
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Mar 30, 2020 18:51
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evil_bunnY posted:That's literally what it is. Sweden is testing loving nobody. Uh, what? Stop getting your info from reddit. Sweden tested over 10k people during week 12, I presume we haven't just stopped this past week.
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Mar 30, 2020 19:09
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BigglesSWE posted:The only takeaway the middle class will take from all this is “why am I paying taxes for a healthcare that can’t even deal with a rapidly growing pandemic?!” Newspaper pundits will nod solemnly while stretching their arms in preparation for the next onslaught of neoliberal think tank bulletpoints. The middle class will diligently show solidarity with healthcare workers by applauding from their balconies and liking, heart--eyes-emojiing and sharing 'doctors and nurses r the TRUE HEROES11!!' memes on social media. Because their appreciation is just so much more valuable than their taxes <3
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Mar 30, 2020 19:24
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PederP posted:It infects via ACE2 receptors afaik? I read that Lupus patients (my wife is one) have almost none of those, so I'm pretty sure it's viable to live without those (but probably with tons of nasty side-effects). Come to think of it, Lupus patients are almost all on hydroxychloroquine. Wild speculation but it's not impossible that there's a connection between the effects of that drug and ACE2 downregulation - which would explain how it (apparently, I guess they jury is still out) has an effect on this virus.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:18
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D. Ebdrup posted:You must've seen a very different press conference than I did, if that's your take-away. She announced easing of the lockdown around when the epidemic is expected to peak. People are going to take it as an excuse to resume business as usual, mark my words. But hey, at least we got to dismantle some civil rights and pump billions into banks and businesses.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:42
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A Buttery Pastry posted:AFAIK, the study that argued hydroxycholorquine as a treatment was, let's say, scientifically compromised. They basically discarded the test subjects which didn't fit the conclusion.  SplitSoul posted:She announced easing of the lockdown around when the epidemic is expected to peak. People are going to take it as an excuse to resume business as usual, mark my words.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:44
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A Buttery Pastry posted:AFAIK, the study that argued hydroxycholorquine as a treatment was, let's say, scientifically compromised. They basically discarded the test subjects which didn't fit the conclusion. Yes, it was not a study to draw conclusions from. But there have been other attempts to use it, and it's been used against SARS in the past. Also, weirdly, my wife was asked in January (when noone expectd this to hit Denmark) to get her prescription from Rigshospitalet and not her GP. They also pestered her really hard to try reducing her dosage by half. Could be coincidence, but I think there is a least a subset of doctors who think this has some kind of effect against SARS/NCOV. She is worried that the worldwide craze for this medication means she won't be able to get it when she runs out soon. Her Lupus gets a lot worse without it - joints and lungs in particular.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:46
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PederP posted:Yes, it was not a study to draw conclusions from. But there have been other attempts to use it, and it's been used against SARS in the past. Also, weirdly, my wife was asked in January (when noone expectd this to hit Denmark) to get her prescription from Rigshospitalet and not her GP. They also pestered her really hard to try reducing her dosage by half. Could be coincidence, but I think there is a least a subset of doctors who think this has some kind of effect against SARS/NCOV. She is worried that the worldwide craze for this medication means she won't be able to get it when she runs out soon. Her Lupus gets a lot worse without it - joints and lungs in particular. We study these things with empiric methods and then have them independently replicated. A particular study in a particular paper is only as good as the peer-review it's gotten when it was processed for the paper, which hopefully has a high impact factor for its field, as well as the number of citations it has in studies published in (potentially) different papers, with high impact factors for their respective fields. THAT is science, anything else is just untested hypotheses. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 20:47
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D. Ebdrup posted:No, she announced that they would consider gradually reopening Denmark, provided the numbers allow for it - which is basically a caveat emptor, as we don't know the target numbers. And those numbers are going to be whatever allows for resumption of economic activity sooner rather than later. This is literally the same person responsible for work ability evaluations in hospital beds. Your confidence in her is misplaced.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:55
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SplitSoul posted:And those numbers are going to be whatever allows for resumption of economic activity sooner rather than later. This is literally the same person responsible for work ability evaluations in hospital beds. Your confidence in her is misplaced.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:09
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Clayton Bigsby posted:Uh, what? Stop getting your info from reddit. Sweden tested over 10k people during week 12, I presume we haven't just stopped this past week. D. Ebdrup posted:It's almost as if science has methods for excluding these kinda of studies.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:13
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D. Ebdrup posted:Again, it doesn't matter what doctors think. Absolutely, but in a crisis, sometimes science comes after the fact. The anecdotal results of desperate measures are often what prompts the proper scientific studies. I am not advocating that our doctors should abandon science and start prescribing medicine based on gut feelings. But they do have the privilege, and responsibility, to take chances in relation to the situation at hand. A doctor is allowed to prescribe medicine (within certain boundaries) even for conditions it is not approved for. This is good. Scientific studies are a core aspect of medicine, but it is not the only relevant concern. An untested hypothesis is a perfectly valid basis for a treatment - if the alternative is to simply let the patient die. Numerous medical advances exist only because of mavericks who went against their peers. (Peer review is not flawless, as per the reproducibility crisis in psychologgy, p-hacking, etc.) A good example is titanium as a bio-compatible material. We must not fixate so heavily on the benefits of peer-review studies, that we forget the value of experimentation. But experiments should almost never be done at a population-level scale, so of course, we should not start treating with antimalarials as a standard protocol. But there should be studies of this. People like Trump who disregard the scientific method and evidence-based medicine are idiots - but so are those who refuse to see the value in experimentation (as a precursor to scientific study). PederP fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 21:24
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PederP posted:Absolutely, but in a crisis, sometimes science comes after the fact. The anecdotal results of desperate measures are often what prompts the proper scientific studies. I am not advocating that our doctors should abandon science and start prescribing medicine based on gut feelings. But they do have the privilege, and responsibility, to take chances in relation to the situation at hand. A doctor is allowed to prescribe medicine (within certain boundaries) even for conditions it is not approved for. This is good. Scientific studies are a core aspect of medicine, but it is not the only relevant concern. An untested hypothesis is a perfectly valid basis for a treatment - if the alternative is to simply let the patient die.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:30
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Finland was starting to see corona carriers leaking across the Swedish border due to workers working across the border, so now the government is planning to close the borders this week, making life difficult to practitioners of illegal snus smuggling. Meanwhile the CEO of the Helsinki and Nyland healthcare district has commented that the epidemic peak will probably be sometime in May in Finland - and when he was asked for his opinion on the swedish approach on the virus, he replied that the finnish response is aline with the more humanitarian approach that the rest of the world has taken. "It really seems to me that Sweden has chosen to side with the economy first. They just don't want to say it aloud," he blasted.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:53
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D. Ebdrup posted:All of this is true, and I'm not trying to discount that - but you'll note that the reason for the best estimates for a cure and a vaccine et al are 2-3 or more months is that they all still have to go through the scientific process, even if they are being fast-tracked. Agree, as dangerous as this pandemic is - it is not a threat large enough to warrant experimentation at a national level. But I can certainly forgive the doctor who uses an unproven treatment in an attempt to save a dying patient. I cannot forgive the doctor who makes unscientific experiments on swathes of patients that are not critical. The former shows integrity and courage, the latter smacks of callous recklessness and chasing fame. The doctors who went public with cries to use antimalarials are irresponsible. The ones who cry about studies taking too long to be approved for commencement have a point. Bureaucrats can sometimes slow down studies to a harmful extent. This is partly a result of corruption/lobbyism erecting artificial barriers to entry, in order to defend pharmaceutical market oligopoly, but that's a different discussion.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:55
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idk, i think this whole thing is pretty relaxing, in a fatalistic sort of way. there is absolutely nothing i can do about it, there's no real point in paying attention to the media and there's no point at getting mad at anyone either. all we can do now is deal with the day as it comes to us. some people get really worked up about masks, for example, but why? it's not like there are any you could get ahold of even if you tried, so why get so invested? i get to work from home and my biggest concern is getting around to get off my rear end and take a walk every day. i don't have to see anyone or do anything in particular and i don't have to feel bad about sitting in front of the computer all day. it's very stress-free. if i get infected i get infected, if my parents get infected they get infected. nothing can be done about it, so why worry? is this what it's like to be religious? it seems comforting.
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Mar 30, 2020 22:03
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I'm stressed because my mom is closing in on 70 and she had pnumonia last year, and my dad is obese with diabetes.
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Mar 30, 2020 23:55
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PederP posted:Numerous medical advances exist only because of mavericks who went against their peers. (Peer review is not flawless, as per the reproducibility crisis in psychologgy, p-hacking, etc.) A good example is titanium as a bio-compatible material. We must not fixate so heavily on the benefits of peer-review studies, that we forget the value of experimentation. Numerous medical atrocities have also happened due to mavericks, which btw is why we have the system we have for drug development. It is not like it appeared out of nowhere and is a consequence of medical mistakes done the last 100 years. Throwing that out in a panic is counter-productive. Peer-review is one thing, but what you need is actual statistics from clinical studies, which takes time and which btw are getting hard to do at the moment. A number of pharma companies have been forced to delay clinical trials due the crisis. It is not like there are procedures to test new drugs which are more risky. As example, the concept orphan drug exists and Swedens largest pharma company (AstraZeneca doesn't count) Sobi is doing exactly this type of research. The severity of a disease allows for drugs that have serious side effects, which would not be tolerated for less severe diseases, ie every cancer treatment. Finally, Läkemedelsverket put Gileads remdesivir on a short list like 2 months ago for this purposes. TheFluff posted:idk, i think this whole thing is pretty relaxing, in a fatalistic sort of way. there is absolutely nothing i can do about it, there's no real point in paying attention to the media and there's no point at getting mad at anyone either. all we can do now is deal with the day as it comes to us. some people get really worked up about masks, for example, but why? it's not like there are any you could get ahold of even if you tried, so why get so invested? https://twitter.com/charlieamber94/status/1239508306902777856?s=20
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Mar 31, 2020 07:41
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evil_bunnY posted:I've 2 friends with symptoms, one of them in a risk group, both were denied tests. Please. And my wife just got diagnosed with pneumonia after being seriously sick for a couple weeks and didn’t get tested either. That still does not mean “nobody” is getting tested as evidenced by FHMs own published figures.
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Mar 31, 2020 08:35
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Clayton Bigsby posted:And my wife just got diagnosed with pneumonia after being seriously sick for a couple weeks and didn’t get tested either. That still does not mean “nobody” is getting tested
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Mar 31, 2020 09:13
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SK is barred from collecting voter declarations for 2½ years due to fraud. Unfortunately, they can just run under a different name and don't have to pay back their funding.
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Mar 31, 2020 09:37
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Bit weird that sweden insists eveything going as planned when their daily death count is the same as our total death count, unless that really is the plan.
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Mar 31, 2020 14:28
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Rincewinds posted:Bit weird that sweden insists eveything going as planned when their daily death count is the same as our total death count, unless that really is the plan. It is going according to plan. No. 1 Callie Fan posted:"It really seems to me that Sweden has chosen to side with the economy first. They just don't want to say it aloud" Though I also admit there is some merit to the arguments that bad economy leads to worsened lifespan over time, negating lives saved in the short term, and that if herd immunity pans out there might be less deaths over time due to less persistance of the disease within the population.
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Mar 31, 2020 14:54
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Zudgemud posted:It is going according to plan. This "prioritize the economy" argument makes no sense - neither from a ruthlessly utilitarian nor from an oligarchic/capitalist viewpoint. Here are some reasons: - Population reduction from epidemics leads to higher wages and redistribution of wealth from top to middle. Example: Aftermath of the Black Death. - Covid19 primarily affects middle-aged and old men. While many of these are non-productive seniors, there is an enormous number of specialist labor and academics among them. - It would take a heavy toll on the health sector. This will make health care a lot more expensive in the aftermath, as healthcare professionals become in short supply (wages also driven up by nations actually fighting the epidemic). - Export markets don't care about your national strategy. - Tourism does care about your national strategy. You'll become a pariah nation. - Continuing the above point: Your own citizens coud be barred from entering other countries for a long while. That's quite a hindrance to trade and international cooperation. - Attracting foreign specialist labor becomes rather difficult. And finally the biggest item, one which was touched upon by the Danish PM as a rebuttal to all the talk about "how much can we afford to spend on this?": - The social contract of a democratic welfare state cannot survive a laissez-faire policy on the virus. Ok, you may say but if the endgoal is to dismantle the welfare state in favor of a hyper-capitalist system. Well that also doesn't work - because you'd quickly see the middle class form walled communities with healthcare predicated on complying with corporate surveillance and isolation measures - you'd see the lower classes devolve into clans and tribes handling isolation measures - and the precious economy you're trying to protect, is going to fracture into a mess far more difficult to make profits in. If I put on my capitalist glasses - I'd prefer measures as harsh as local culture allows - like those we see in South Korea, Singapore, Germany, Denmark, etc. A stable society is essential to a capitalist oligarch - government/state cooperation is highly beneficial in maximizing profits. The ones who want laissez-faire are the capitalist gentry, the petty nobles - especially those who are active in media, entertainment, restaurants, tourism, etc. They do not have the capital buffer to adapt to a new order. Large corporations, if properly run, are perfectly capable of shifting focus to new business areas. The Swedish strategy is a gamble that unchecked spread will not result in too many fatalities and that it will run it's course relatively quickly. I guess that's sort of a valid stance, risky as it may be. But what they fail to realize, is that support for the welfare state will be completely destroyed by this strategy. You'll end up with a lot of nasty -ism fighting for power in the aftermath - and my gut feeling is that the ones who end up in charge are closer to Orban than enlightened socalism or anarcho-syndicalism. I really hope some freak miracle saves Sweden from the stupidity of it's leaders or that you change course sooner rather than later. Sorry - this got rantier than intended, but I am baffled by the reckless course of Sweden. You're not just gambling with the lives of your elderly and infirm - you're speeding straight towards a collapse of the social contract. That's really loving dangerous.
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Mar 31, 2020 15:50
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I'm surprised people are so upset at the Swedish response when it was basically "Government pays everyone to stay home"
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Mar 31, 2020 16:19
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Katt posted:I'm surprised people are so upset at the Swedish response when it was basically "Government pays everyone to stay home" Because without actual regulation in place that is going to translate into "holiday and fun social activities" for a lot of people - and there is a strong indication that greatly reducing social interaction of the entire population is necessary to slow down the spread of the virus. If WHO is right then your current response will result in 10%-20% of the population dying. I think it's reasonable to be upset at that prospect. I'm worried at the sloppy attitude and regulation in Denmark - if I was a Swede I'd be furious. I'm sure that some of the cities and countries currently dealing with massive fatalities would like to turn back time and do better at slowing the spread. We have that chance right now in Scandinavia. And we're wasting it - Sweden worst of all. And why? What's the point? Stubborn refusal to believe it could really be this dangerous? I'm appalled by our media and how they downplay this at every turn.
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Mar 31, 2020 16:38
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