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Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

twoday posted:

if US is gonna be like Italy, then Florida is going to be like Spain or even worse given the comparable situation there of tightly packed retiree communities

the cock-shaped, racist version of italy

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snoo
Jul 5, 2007




Raiad posted:

my brain is cracking and pinging like gently caress at trying to piece together all of this, like how it happened, how someone could be thanking musk, are those people just administrators just cosplaying as doctors? etc.

snoo
Jul 5, 2007




Grapplejack posted:

the cock-shaped, racist version of italy

so italy

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Grapplejack posted:

the cock-shaped, racist version of italy

italy is pretty fuckin' racist lol

Tei
Feb 19, 2011


what. the. gently caress.

this means 20.000.000 americans are already infected

Tei has issued a correction as of 17:50 on Apr 1, 2020

Fried Watermelon
Dec 29, 2008


US gonna use the virus deaths to invade china

Raiad
Feb 1, 2005

Without the law, there wouldn't be lawyers.


i mean, sure, musk could have just been pulling a fast one to get more unearned publicity, but he really could also just be that stupid, like maybe there were a bunch of listings for "ventilators" on ebay from a chinese vendor and that's what he meant when he bought a bunch of ventilators from china

Zyme
Aug 15, 2000

shovelbum posted:

So italy is at 12k/day now?

No ~12k total, about 800ish per day. Seems like the rate of deaths/day has stopped increasing though and might have peaked. But the total is going to still keep going up.

Thoguh posted:

When you reach the peak you still have to go down the other side.

Yeah, I guess its probably not going to be an equal total going up vs. going down. The going down part will probably take a lot longer so it could account for (way) more than 1/2 the deaths.

So if the US ended up like Italy, the peak death rate would be 800 * 5.5 = 4400 per day, which is fairly grim. Gonna stop doing stupid math comparisons like this now though since it is utterly impossible for anybody to know what the gently caress is going on with the lovely data we have available.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

the USA would get trounced by China

Paramemetic
Sep 29, 2003

Area 51. You heard of it, right?





Fallen Rib

hepatizon posted:

You're ignoring the time dimension. The disease often takes a ~a week after symptoms begin to progress to a severe form. In exponential growth, half the cases are newer than the doubling period. The vast majority of US cases have not had time to develop severe symptoms.

The only useful statistics on severity are from populations that are not in exponential growth.

I understand that, but we can look at numbers from places that are ahead of us on the curve and we're not seeing 20% hospitalization rates or 20% needing hospitalization so like I said, those numbers aren't accurate but they're indicative. We'll see some millions dead but not 50 million.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Tei posted:

what. the. gently caress.

And that's just the numbers from New York.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Paramemetic posted:

From last night? No, because they have changed and I didn't write down the poo poo I ran.

From now? Yes.

Presently in the US there are 190,022 cases confirmed. Of those, 4102 have died.
4102/190022=0.02158 or 2.2% mortality. It's not perfect because we know more people have died at home or without confirmation, but it's probably in the ballpark.

In the US, there are 178,646 confirmed cases active right now. Of those, 4,576 are severe/critical.
4576/178646=0.0256 or 2.6% hospitalized. There are almost certainly many more cases that have not been tested, but because the US testing policy many places is "has shown up to the hospital," it's unlikely the untested cases are severe enough to be seen at a hospital.

Many of the cases that are not hospitalized are people who have called family doctors or been seen at urgent cares or so on and been told "yeah it's the bad poo poo, stay home and call 911 if you can't breathe."

There is likely a good chunk of those who were tested who weren't admitted at the time but will be admitted later as they deteriorate. It's probably not gonna be 17.5% of those people.

Globally, the numbers on Worldometer look like this:


That's basically the trend. 5% need hospitalized. 20% of the hospitalized cases die.

There's nothing that suggests 20% of people need hospitalization.

wow this is some amazing armchair epidemiology you should post it on medium.com

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Schmoe Cwead posted:

elon musk: here have some ventilators because i am a selfless billionaire who thinks of others before himself


also elon: GOT U!! APRIL FOOLS!!! THEY ARENT VENTILATORS AT ALL! LMAO I AM ACTUALLY A PARASITE ON SOCIETY I GOT U SO GOOD LOOOOOL

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



I miss baseball and crave pizza

i would prefer both of these things to accelerating hyperdeath as a result of a brick labeled "american exceptionalism" being laid on the gas pedal

20 Blunts
Jan 21, 2017

Zyme posted:

Gonna stop doing stupid math

teeerrummppppp

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007





our country sucks so much lol

Fuckt Tupp
Apr 19, 2007

Science
https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/1245392688205246464

abnormalization

NofrikinfuN
Apr 23, 2009


twoday posted:

if US is gonna be like Italy, then Florida is going to be like Spain or even worse given the comparable situation there of tightly packed retiree communities

god can you imagine being an inheritance lawyer right now?

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 27 minutes!

euphronius posted:

the USA would get trounced by China

We got trounced by Afghans with 30 year old AKs and rocks

Tei
Feb 19, 2011

Fried Watermelon posted:

US gonna use the virus deaths to invade china

So much of everything in USA is build on China, they would first had to ask permision to the CCP.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

NofrikinfuN posted:

god can you imagine being an inheritance lawyer right now?

it’s called wills and estates

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Admiral Ray posted:

italy is pretty fuckin' racist lol

ugh fine

florida: The cock-shaped, equally racist Italy

Crusader
Apr 11, 2002

MadJackal posted:

Where’d the thread title come from? I want to steal it later.

this i think

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WUDGURif9A

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009

Fried Watermelon posted:

US gonna use the virus deaths to invade china

i'll take "things that are never going to happen" for $1000 alex

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

We got trounced by Afghans with 30 year old AKs and rocks

they didn’t play by the rules of our war games so we asked them to do it over again and they said NO!!! NOT FAIR

e: Also I posted in the other thread but I think the American public is normalizing all of this pretty hard and fast and don’t see a way we keep lockdowns beyond mid-May. Everyone was distraught over 500/day deaths in Italy last week but now we are hitting 1k/day in USA John Q. Public is still stuck going to work and not having PPE and listening to smooth brain press conferences. Middle class is still posting Zoom and Quarantine memes. It’s going to look like a city slicker problem for those with authority and by the time it creeps into rural America no one will give a poo poo because we will be trying to threaten China and they are too poor to stop working.

Can’t wait until we see the second peak and go “HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN AGAIN” as we are literally not thinking ahead at all

Crazyweasel has issued a correction as of 17:57 on Apr 1, 2020

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 27 minutes!

Admiral Ray posted:

italy is pretty fuckin' racist lol

Eyyyyyyyyyyyyy

old beast lunatic
Nov 3, 2004

by Hand Knit
just lmao if you didn't realize the US was turbofucked when the president didn't bring out the mypillow man and instead said the good curve was 240,000 dead.

Paramemetic
Sep 29, 2003

Area 51. You heard of it, right?





Fallen Rib

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

wow this is some amazing armchair epidemiology you should post it on medium.com

:nallears:

I haven't made any outlandish predictions tho I'm afraid I need a lawyer to tell us only 15 going to 0 if I want clicks

Fuckt Tupp
Apr 19, 2007

Science

Raiad posted:

i mean, sure, musk could have just been pulling a fast one to get more unearned publicity, but he really could also just be that stupid, like maybe there were a bunch of listings for "ventilators" on ebay from a chinese vendor and that's what he meant when he bought a bunch of ventilators from china

*musk checks out on amazon* gently caress ANOTHER THIRD PARTY SELLER GOD drat IT I FORGOT TO LOOK AGAIN

WarEternal
Dec 26, 2010

Goodness no, now that wouldn't do at all!
https://mobile.twitter.com/TierneyODea/status/1245379911713525760

Lmao these people trying to bend over backwards to make excuses for Musk. That's ALSO not a ventilator. My dad died of pulmonary fibrosis so I know what a fuckin ventilator looks like.

"Non-invasive" right there on the text of the loving page. Why did the "NYCHealthSystem" Twitter promote this when they're loving CPAPs? Feel like I'm losing my mind.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



China just gonna press a button that makes all the components of our war machines they manufacture stop working lol

anti-carrier ballistic missiles sink carriers that are empty because of plague

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

old beast lunatic posted:

just lmao if you didn't realize the US was turbofucked when the president didn't bring out the mypillow man and instead said the good curve was 240,000 dead.

did he go from 100,009 to 240,000 over a day ?

Harry Potter on Ice
Nov 4, 2006


IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED

euphronius posted:

it’s called wills and estates

I'm willin' these states to collapse every day I dunno about you

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 27 minutes!

Steve Blass retired from doing play-by-play last year for the pirates so I don't care about baseball anymore

Raiad
Feb 1, 2005

Without the law, there wouldn't be lawyers.


Schmoe Cwead posted:

elon musk: here have some ventilators because i am a selfless billionaire who thinks of others before himself


also elon: GOT U!! APRIL FOOLS!!! THEY ARENT VENTILATORS AT ALL! LMAO I AM ACTUALLY A PARASITE ON SOCIETY I GOT U SO GOOD LOOOOOL

i'm sorry, did YOU spend thousands of dollars on medical equipment that's potentially worse than useless in this situation to give to some doctors who now have to pretend to appreciate the gift because otherwise they'll be fired by their hospital administrators because it would be bad press to seem ungrateful

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I don’t think much of us military tech is made by China

that would seem ... illegal

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Tei posted:

what. the. gently caress.

this means 20.000.000 americans are already infected

Late April peak- we're speed-running it brah.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Thought I'd pop in and let you guys know that there's a rural county in my area that has done 7 tests total and 2 were positive. But we need to ship our test supplies out to areas like NY that need them more :downs:

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Steve Blass retired from doing play-by-play last year for the pirates so I don't care about baseball anymore

pausing Pirates fandom in stressful and anxious times counts as self-care

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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

wills and estates is also the best legal field to be in if you can . it’s easy work and you charge ridiculous amounts

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