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should probs rename them to short-term care facilities at this point
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Apr 3, 2020 20:25
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Who are the epidemiologists and virologists I can point low-information people toward, on twitter or elsewhere? My high-risk elderly parents are getting all their information from Fox News and it’s not doing them any favors, but they’ve agreed to look at other sources if I’ll vouch for them.
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Apr 3, 2020 20:26
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I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff?
Gianthogweed fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 20:29
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Gianthogweed posted:dad chat that argument doesnt even make sense because if people are staying home and avoiding traffic accidents, going outside means they'd just have those + covid too
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Apr 3, 2020 20:31
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that far fewer people are dying in total because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? Maybe im just tired but don't even loving bother. I 100% bet even you got those numbers and gave them to him he'd attack where you go them from. You'll never win
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Apr 3, 2020 20:32
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OpenSourceBurger posted:Maybe im just tired but don't even loving bother. I 100% bet even you got those numbers and gave them to him he'd attack where you go them from. You'll never win I still want to see that data though.
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Apr 3, 2020 20:33
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Crocoswine posted:should probs rename them to short-term care facilities at this point  Wifezwang and I had a relative in a facility like that who died last summer (of non-covid-related causes, obvs). The one good thing about that is we don't have to be terrified for them right now. Kestral posted:Who are the epidemiologists and virologists I can point low-information people toward, on twitter or elsewhere? My high-risk elderly parents are getting all their information from Fox News and it’s not doing them any favors, but they’ve agreed to look at other sources if I’ll vouch for them. Out of that feed, these folks are particularly germane: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD https://twitter.com/mlipsitch https://twitter.com/AmeshAA https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory https://twitter.com/JHSPH_CHS Edit: Ben Hunt (EpsilonTheory) might be way too politically left for them, but I'm pretty sure that most or all of the top three names there have been making appearances on Fox News (and every other news outlet), so you can at least say "This person's been on Fox!" to give them more credibility. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Double edit: every COVID-19 episode on this podcast is great. Michael Osterholm would be a great one to start with. https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19/ Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 20:35
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? You can bullshit the number by taking the population of New York divided by life expectancy in days. Obviously not correct, but probably close. 19.54 million (state pop. 2018) / (~80 *365 days) = 670. Four times that number died yesterday from coronavirus in the state, and the trend is still rising. Blorange fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 20:38
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Ugly In The Morning posted:From the comments: Humanity doesn't deserve saving.
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Apr 3, 2020 20:40
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Oh my god Baby Yoda tested positive for corona!!!!!!
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Apr 3, 2020 20:42
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On the other hand, George Soros seems to have an incredible work ethic, as he seems to be involved in thousands of ongoing projects. Elect this man!
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Apr 3, 2020 20:42
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bird with big dick posted:Humanity doesn't deserve saving. Though the ones that aren't are indistinguishable from said bots, which kinda bolsters your point. 
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Apr 3, 2020 20:42
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? My dad told me to go to NYC to help with treatment and when I told him thats a terrible idea he told me to grow a pair lmao He's now broken off communication with me
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Apr 3, 2020 20:43
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/?fbclid=IwAR3Br5UKMrH9rJisfCWyqzpOUvLVWe8vB2Ilsb4DM0TyYp_b1VauCdJ7w6w Show him this and try and explain to him what "exponential" means. https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/10/visual-explanation-of-exponential-growth-and-epidemics/
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Apr 3, 2020 20:44
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If you are needing a mask in a hurry then try using a cough-ee filter
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Apr 3, 2020 20:46
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GolfHole posted:that argument doesnt even make sense because if people are staying home and avoiding traffic accidents, going outside means they'd just have those + covid too Yes, but that wasn't his argument. He doesn't think the total number deaths is significantly higher than normal and doesn't believe they are running out of body bags. Also, the number of covid cases is much higher than the number of deaths from covid. I believe only 2% of people who have covid have died in the US and that percentage might be much lower because we haven't tested everyone.
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Apr 3, 2020 20:47
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Does Soros let anyone apply to be in SMERSH?
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Apr 3, 2020 20:48
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bird with big dick posted:https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/?fbclid=IwAR3Br5UKMrH9rJisfCWyqzpOUvLVWe8vB2Ilsb4DM0TyYp_b1VauCdJ7w6w This is good, but I'm still wondering where I can find that full one day death total from all causes. Also that graph is fishy because all the other causes of death are staying the same, only covid is changing on a day to day basis. That doesn't seem accurate. Gianthogweed fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 20:49
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Dandywalken posted:Oh my god Baby Yoda tested positive for corona!!!!!! Wjat happens to an actual baby boomer
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Apr 3, 2020 20:57
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? Tell him to put up or shut up and go lick some toilet seats, and no you will not help him set up an indiegogo for his medical bills.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:00
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Gianthogweed posted:I got into an argument with my Dad. He thinks the NY numbers are bullshit and doesn't believe they're running out of body bags. His argument was that the death toll shouldn't be much higher than normal because more people are staying home (fewer traffic accidents, gang violence, etc). So I need some data. What is the TOTAL number of people who died yesterday in New York? Not just the covid19 deaths, I'm looking for the FULL TOTAL that includes ALL deaths in NY. I want to compare that number to the average number of deaths per day in NY. I suppose you can take the total number of people who died in NY last year and divide it by 365 to get an estimate of the number of deaths per day under normal circumstances. If you can compare those two number you can determine if the number of the deaths yesterday is significantly higher than the average and that should give you an idea of how devastating the death toll truly is. But I'm having trouble finding that data. Is there a reliable source for this stuff? I'm pretty sure you won't get that number, but here's an estimate: on one of the city websites they post in 2015 that there was a death every 9.1 minutes, which works out to about 158 deaths daily. In the week between Mar 26 and Apr 1 there were 156 covid19 deaths per day. e: i found some vital statistics from 2017 here, which indicate a mortality of 129 deaths per day. dokmo fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 21:01
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Gianthogweed posted:This is good, but I'm still wondering where I can find that full one day death total from all causes. Also that graph is fishy because all the other causes of death are staying the same, only covid is changing on a day to day basis. That doesn't seem accurate. https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31c.htm Breaks it down a bit for 2017 for NYC. It averages 147.41 deaths per day from ALL causes. per https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/world/coronavirus-news-updates.html Updated as of 16 minutes ago, "more than 1000" in the last week alone in the city. Assuming by week they mean a full 7 days, that is 142.85 at a BARE MINIMUM per day JUST by COVID.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:09
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Big Beef City posted:Updated as of 16 minutes ago, "more than 1000" in the last week alone in the city. Assuming by week they mean a full 7 days, that is 142.85 at a BARE MINIMUM per day JUST by COVID.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:11
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dokmo posted:I'm pretty sure you won't get that number, but here's an estimate: on one of the city websites they post in 2015 that there was a death every 9.1 minutes, which works out to about 158 deaths daily. In the week between Mar 26 and Apr 1 there were 156 covid19 deaths per day. Is that just in NYC or is it the whole state? Also is there any data on the total number of New York State deaths in 2019? 2015 was quite awhile ago. That might be the most recent though because I'm having trouble finding that data. Every time I google I get a breakdown of "leading causes of death" but that's not what I'm looking for. Strange that the full total is so difficult to find.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:11
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Gianthogweed posted:Is that just in NYC or is it the whole state? Also is there any data on the total number of New York State deaths in 2019? 2015 was quite awhile ago. That might be the most recent though because I'm having trouble finding that data. Every time I google I get a breakdown of "leading causes of death" but that's not what I'm looking for. It seems like the full total should be easier to find.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:12
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Gianthogweed posted:Is that just in NYC or is it the whole state? Also is there any data on the total number of New York State deaths in 2019? 2015 was quite awhile ago. That might be the most recent though because I'm having trouble finding that data. Every time I google I get a breakdown of "leading causes of death" but that's not what I'm looking for. Strange that the full total is so difficult to find. that is nyc. another poster above found similar numbers from a different source. you're probably not going to find anything more recent than 2017 (see my edit), but the search terms you want are "vital statistics" and "mortality rate"
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Apr 3, 2020 21:13
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Big Beef City posted:https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31c.htm This is good. But what is the FULL TOTAL from ALL causes in the past 7 days? I want to compare that with the average deaths per day under normal circumstances.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:13
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Gianthogweed posted:Is that just in NYC or is it the whole state? Also is there any data on the total number of New York State deaths in 2019? 2015 was quite awhile ago. That might be the most recent though because I'm having trouble finding that data. Every time I google I get a breakdown of "leading causes of death" but that's not what I'm looking for. Strange that the full total is so difficult to find. As someone else said, I can't find anything stating all causes of death combined by day for anything post-2017, it's unlikely they're even compiling that data. Here's a link to the full state 2017 data https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31a.htm
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Apr 3, 2020 21:15
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Went to 5 stores today. Wore a mask and gloves. Won’t have to go out again for 10-12 days... also shopping for my parents in their late 60’s
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Apr 3, 2020 21:16
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2 weeks ago my wife felt dumb wearing a mask to the store. Today she was getting looks because she had one of the better masks in the store. Also she spotted a bunch of people wearing cheap surgical masks over their mouths but not their noses.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:19
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Ornamental Dingbat posted:2 weeks ago my wife felt dumb wearing a mask to the store. Today she was getting looks because she had one of the better masks in the store. I went to get pizza from a local place that I don't want to shut down, a couple days back, wearing a mask -- I felt so bad when the girl working there complimented it (she didn't have one, but they had gloves etc and distancing measures) -- If I had a spare I'd have given it to her, i still feel kinda bad Fuckin mask guilt Supreme Allah fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 21:25
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Never argue in good faith conservatives. You could give them mountains of data and they'd just says something like "fake news." Their ideology isn't reality-based and isn't much more complex than "owning the libs."
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Apr 3, 2020 21:25
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My boss has invited myself and the rest of my team to a "Happy Hour catchup Zoom meeting", at 5pm, on a Friday. RIP us probably
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Apr 3, 2020 21:26
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Zugzwang posted:Real good curated twitter feed here: [snip] This is perfect, thank you! Now I just have to teach 70-year olds how to use Twitter. By phone. God help me.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:27
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Sorry if this has been posted before, this thread moves too fast to follow everything So everyone has been talking about "flattening the curve" as the core idea beyond all this social and medical planning as the best solution. But what if it isn't?  The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Bootsma MC1, Ferguson NM. There's actually a problem if the health measures are too effective that when the cases spike and die down quickly, we'll end up with another ramping spike a few weeks later as the disease finally saturates the population.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:27
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Hobo Clown posted:My boss has invited myself and the rest of my team to a "Happy Hour catchup Zoom meeting", at 5pm, on a Friday. RIP us probably What? You think hes gonna call everyone back in to work physically or something? Or is your company dead
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Apr 3, 2020 21:28
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:What? You think hes gonna call everyone back in to work physically or something? Or is your company dead If I had to do a social work event on video chat after I wasn't being paid to be there id probably kill myself too
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Apr 3, 2020 21:31
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pentyne posted:Sorry if this has been posted before, this thread moves too fast to follow everything I think the argument is that a multiple flat curves is preferable to one massive spike that will overwhelm our hospitals. Of course that doesn't take into effect the consequences a lockdown will have on the economy and the number of deaths a depression may or may not cause. But I think the hope was the economy could take the hit for awhile and still recover.
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Apr 3, 2020 21:32
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pentyne posted:Sorry if this has been posted before, this thread moves too fast to follow everything i dont think you have to worry about any of the current efforts being "too effective"
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Apr 3, 2020 21:32
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pentyne posted:Sorry if this has been posted before, this thread moves too fast to follow everything this is why testing is a critical part of handling the virus; i'm surprised you haven't heard this as the WHO has been consistent in its messaging antibody testing to see who has already had it and is immune, and regular testing to quickly detect resurgent hotspots, will allow countries to ease restrictions in safe areas without inviting another explosion of cases that's the idea, anyways
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