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Flipperwaldt posted:Every primer article I've seen on how to read corona graphs has been stressing how the only vaguely reliably comparable metric is the death growth rate. Ie. number of new deaths doubles in three days here, five days there. Even then death growth is only a reliable stat if you're reporting all the deaths, which definitely isn't happening. In places where testing isn't widespread, there are mysterious waves of people dying from "pneumonia" and "acute respiratory distress" that aren't being recorded as Covid deaths because the person wasn't tested for Covid while still alive. This is happening everywhere from Chicago to Indonesia, and means that the only places where you can actually trust the death rates are the places that have been doing the widest testing, which is not very many places.
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Apr 5, 2020 14:09
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vyelkin posted:Even then death growth is only a reliable stat if you're reporting all the deaths, which definitely isn't happening. In places where testing isn't widespread, there are mysterious waves of people dying from "pneumonia" and "acute respiratory distress" that aren't being recorded as Covid deaths because the person wasn't tested for Covid while still alive. This is happening everywhere from Chicago to Indonesia, and means that the only places where you can actually trust the death rates are the places that have been doing the widest testing, which is not very many places. Very much agreed with this. Their method (which is just looking back to the last day which has less than half as many total deaths as today) will average out major fluctations, and make the data look a lot more reliable than they really are. I'm also concerned that the previously linked website uses the last 10 days of data: the most recent 3-4 days are definitely going to be under-reporting even more than usual. So take these numbers with a grain of salt. code:
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Apr 5, 2020 15:07
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vyelkin posted:Even then death growth is only a reliable stat if you're reporting all the deaths, which definitely isn't happening. In places where testing isn't widespread, there are mysterious waves of people dying from "pneumonia" and "acute respiratory distress" that aren't being recorded as Covid deaths because the person wasn't tested for Covid while still alive. This is happening everywhere from Chicago to Indonesia, and means that the only places where you can actually trust the death rates are the places that have been doing the widest testing, which is not very many places. Backing out the actual cause of death from what's listed on a death certificate has always been an interesting exercise. Official statistics are probably drastically undercounting deaths due to diabetes, and there are similar issues with suicide.
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Apr 5, 2020 16:22
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Regarding King County, out of the current death count of 200, it's probably worth noting that 35 of them were all from a *single* assisted living facility (Life Care Center of Kirkland) which was ground zero for fatal cases in the state. Really illustrates what a lack of proper precaution can mean for more vulnerable people in close proximity.
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Apr 5, 2020 17:13
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ultrafilter posted:Backing out the actual cause of death from what's listed on a death certificate has always been an interesting exercise. Official statistics are probably drastically undercounting deaths due to diabetes, and there are similar issues with suicide. There's a goon in quarantine in Florida who recently posted this: quote:The Florida State Health Department is denying Ccvid testing through state sponsored avenues if you’re under 65 so anyone who has been denied has to go through a commercial lab which takes longer to get results. So this isn't even necessarily always an issue of not being sure which condition caused a death, it seems to be intentional juking of stats to make Covid appear less bad than it really is.
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Apr 5, 2020 17:40
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 The bumps after the closure of the liquor stores are Supermarket wine sales.
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Apr 5, 2020 17:48
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:
Looks like the old bumps were people buying booze on Thur/Fri to party over the weekend and the new bumps are people buying wine on Mon/Tue to get through the week.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:21
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:
I've never had occasion to look at Pennsylvania liquor law before, but I just did a bit of googling and holy cow, they are weird about it there. Apparently you have to buy booze directly from the state government, through an agency whose stated purpose is to "discourage the purchase of alcoholic beverages by making it as inconvenient and expensive as possible." What the hell? Here (Illinois), every grocery store has a liquor section and you can even get vodka at a 7-11.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:03
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Powered Descent posted:I've never had occasion to look at Pennsylvania liquor law before, but I just did a bit of googling and holy cow, they are weird about it there. Apparently you have to buy booze directly from the state government, through an agency whose stated purpose is to "discourage the purchase of alcoholic beverages by making it as inconvenient and expensive as possible." What the hell? Here (Illinois), every grocery store has a liquor section and you can even get vodka at a 7-11. They do the same stuff in Scandinavia. It just leads to people paying ridiculous amounts for booze, but they don't really drink less.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:10
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vyelkin posted:Even then death growth is only a reliable stat if you're reporting all the deaths, which definitely isn't happening. In places where testing isn't widespread, there are mysterious waves of people dying from "pneumonia" and "acute respiratory distress" that aren't being recorded as Covid deaths because the person wasn't tested for Covid while still alive. This is happening everywhere from Chicago to Indonesia, and means that the only places where you can actually trust the death rates are the places that have been doing the widest testing, which is not very many places.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:21
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Powered Descent posted:I've never had occasion to look at Pennsylvania liquor law before, but I just did a bit of googling and holy cow, they are weird about it there. Apparently you have to buy booze directly from the state government, through an agency whose stated purpose is to "discourage the purchase of alcoholic beverages by making it as inconvenient and expensive as possible." What the hell? Here (Illinois), every grocery store has a liquor section and you can even get vodka at a 7-11. You can buy beer from a brewery or some bars, and I think they've put some wine in grocery stores now (although they have special machines for it). There are a lot of things that I miss about living in Philly, but this is not one of them.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:22
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State liquor stores were common in many states back in the 70s and 80s.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:28
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Good, all essential goods should be provided by the government
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Apr 5, 2020 20:42
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Yes in Pennsylvania you get your booze from the following places: 1. A beer distributor, which is a store that sells only beer and non-alcoholic beverages. 2. A state store, which sells only wine and liquor. These are run by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania itself. 3. A grocery store, where you can buy beer and wine from a special section. They got rid of the machine nonsense. 4. A restaurant, bar, or deli, that has "takeout". This is a beer case where you can get single bottles, 6 packs, or 12 packs. If you want a case of beer go to a beer distributor or a grocery store. 5. A brewery or distillery that sells their product directly to the customer on property. 6. Online sales, state-run wholesale facilities. The website is currently broken. Those bumps in the graph I posted that take place after the closure of the state stores aren't direct wine sales. They're purchases of wine by grocery stores from the state government. The Commonwealth has an absolute monopoly on wine and liquor. Grocery stores with wine are essentially resellers. Oh and when they closed the state stores they also boarded them up. Teriyaki Hairpiece has a new favorite as of 20:46 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 20:43
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HerStuddMuffin posted:I like this graph, it’s a great illustration of what most people picture when you use the word tsunami. Another lesser tsunami:  Sentient Data posted:Are deaths measured the same way everywhere? Even outside of COVID-19 the way different countries measure certain things can be surprisingly different.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:25
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Yes in Pennsylvania you get your booze from the following places: To add to the weirdness, at least in Pittsburgh there is a single non-state run liquor store, which can exist because they only sell liquor produced in PA and therefore the liquor import restrictions which would apply to a normal liquor store are moot.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:48
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In Finland people are not pronounced dead until their grandchildren make traditional amulets from their bones. Naturally, there are activists pushing to allow social workers to make those amulets to streamline the process, but it's not likely to happen with a conservative president in power.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:49
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Paladinus posted:In Finland people are not pronounced dead until their grandchildren make traditional amulets from their bones. Naturally, there are activists pushing to allow social workers to make those amulets to streamline the process, but it's not likely to happen with a conservative president in power. *record scratch* What?!
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Apr 5, 2020 23:52
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What if you don't have grandkids? Are you just a lich?
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Apr 5, 2020 23:55
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marshmallow creep posted:What if you don't have grandkids? Are you just a lich? There are twenty-four elected for life orphans appointed as all-grandchildren (kaksikymmentäneljä kaikki lastenlasta) and can officially serve as grandchildren to those who died childless, but you have to give your permission in your will. And it doesn't apply to situations where you have children, but all of them are childless.
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Apr 6, 2020 00:09
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X axis: how much it sounds like bullshit Y axis: probability of being the truth Perfect U-shaped parabola
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Apr 6, 2020 00:59
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Goons will believe anything about Finland.
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Apr 6, 2020 01:05
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EasilyConfused posted:Goons will believe anything about Finland. cf. the post history of one Cotton, Jerry
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Apr 6, 2020 03:30
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TheKennedys posted:cf. the post history of one Cotton, Jerry now known as 3D Megadoodoo
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Apr 6, 2020 08:00
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Honj Steak posted:They do the same stuff in Scandinavia. It just leads to people paying ridiculous amounts for booze, but they don't really drink less. The systembolaget isn't too bad these days. One interesting thing is that they often get some good booze at better prices and often the price is more guided by alcohol content than quality.
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Apr 6, 2020 10:58
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Munin posted:The systembolaget isn't too bad these days. One interesting thing is that they often get some good booze at better prices and often the price is more guided by alcohol content than quality. Similar with Vinmonopolet in Norway. They are a pretty big actor in the international market so often get good deals; and the Norwegian sin tax is entirely based on alcohol content, so is the same for a bottle of the cheapest 40% no-brand east bloc vodka as for a bottle of 40% finest aged single malt scotch. Also they're big enough to have a pretty diverse selection, and often employ people who actually know about the stuff they sell.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:24
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https://twitter.com/nfyahaya/status/1247144101620793344
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Apr 6, 2020 13:50
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v good
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Apr 6, 2020 14:34
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mobby_6kl posted:Realistically the only way to get reliable numbers would be after all this is over by comparing with the same period of a typical, corona-less year. But even that would have to be adjusted because fewer people are dying in traffic accidents/getting murdered etc. Followup on this conversation from yesterday, but in line with this thread's general theme: you can't trust the graphs. https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155196234522625 https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155444310777856 https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155771462365185 https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155922188804096
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Apr 6, 2020 15:53
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Who decides that a particular city’s morgue is “best in the world”? Is there a ratings agency? Does the UN do it?
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Apr 7, 2020 10:58
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Capt.Whorebags posted:Who decides that a particular city’s morgue is “best in the world”? Of all the people they've serviced, not one has come back to complain!
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Apr 7, 2020 11:26
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People are dying to get there.
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Apr 7, 2020 11:33
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Capt.Whorebags posted:Who decides that a particular city’s morgue is “best in the world”? if you are within the city boundaries of new york city you are legally obligated to describe anything there as the best in the world
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Apr 7, 2020 11:45
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Peanut Butler posted:if you are within the boundaries of the united states you are legally obligated to describe anything there as the best in the world
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Apr 7, 2020 12:12
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Krankenstyle posted:
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Apr 7, 2020 12:36
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It's a pretty cool morgue. A very chill place.
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Apr 7, 2020 14:10
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Capt.Whorebags posted:Who decides that a particular city’s morgue is “best in the world”? As far as I know Operation Paperclip included poaching cremation specialists. That industry had recently suffered a massive shock and so it was easy to convince those specialists to move. Once they arrived they were horrified at the state of the States, so they quickly established a national journal similar to the UK's Cremation Societies "Pharos International". They sought to improve the efficiency of cremation mostly for its own sake, but morgues would have been relieved if under pressure. Sadly, political maneuvering prevented many of their suggestions from being implemented, especially because their proposed investments in rail infrastructure clashed with the Zeitgeist that preferred cars. And yes I've been pulling this out of my rectum because I'm waiting on things at work and I'm bored out of my skull right now. Thanks for reading. 
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Apr 7, 2020 14:13
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Apr 8, 2020 00:37
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i've always really wondered the demographics of people who go and rate stuff on imdb. is it like, integrated into something people use to watch tv on or do they really have roving gangs of dedicated raters that judge every tv episode they ever watch
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Apr 8, 2020 00:43
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I assume that 3.9 is the Lady Gaga episode?
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Apr 8, 2020 00:51
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