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https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1246457615539937282
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Apr 5, 2020 19:32
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Ah well, if it's DB saying it...
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Apr 5, 2020 19:47
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Why do I care what some guy who jumped out of a plane thinks
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Apr 5, 2020 19:51
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Why do I care what some guy who jumped out of a plane thinks Great post as usual GGGC.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:51
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fougera posted:That list is pretty good. I think you will eventually unfollow a lot of them but its all up to personal tastes. You will find some of them post a lot of the same thing because they have some axe to grind. yeah, I will likely pare things down over time. Right now I'm casting a wider net due to market volatility and since, well, the list is new. Trinh looks like a pro follow for those closely tracking Asia markets.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:52
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Why do I care what some guy who jumped out of a plane thinks He probably has more money than us?
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Apr 5, 2020 19:53
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:He probably has more money than us? The original Golden Parachute
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Apr 5, 2020 19:56
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Freezer posted:Ah well, if it's DB saying it... It did make me hesitant, but the tweeter is from pmchem's list on the previous page, so I assumed he is credible and reliable.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:06
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Predicting red candles for futures. Also had to make a run for supplies this weekend. Donned a mask and gloves. Still seeing way to many people in public. A few with masks, majority not. Visited Walmart. Seems to have a better setup then the other stores I visited, say Lowes and Menards. The wait to get in is pretty fast. Wiping down all carts is nice. Distance between shoppers is getting better. Menards and Lowes is like there is no pandemic at all. Just the way it's always been. A lot of huddling up to check out. Guess we'll need more cases and deaths before we take this poo poo seriously.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:07
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enraged_camel posted:It did make me hesitant, but the tweeter is from pmchem's list on the previous page, so I assumed he is credible and reliable. yeah he's a pretty good twitter follow. I wouldn't view that particular tweet as his endorsement of DeutscheBank's view; it's just relaying info.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:19
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:The original Golden Parachute Hot drat, two in a row. Well done.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:25
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Why do I care what some guy who jumped out of a plane thinks He got away with it, which is the dream of everybody in finance.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:50
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:The original Golden Parachute God Tier posting
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Apr 5, 2020 21:26
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Hit Man posted:Predicting red candles for futures. What state are you in?
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Apr 5, 2020 21:27
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Bored As gently caress posted:What state are you in? Indiana. We have a lack of testing here which makes our case count look better than our neighbors.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:56
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Boris Johnson admitted to the hospital. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-05/boris-johnson-admitted-to-hospital-for-tests-in-precaution
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Apr 5, 2020 22:11
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And futures go up
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Apr 5, 2020 23:01
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paternity suitor posted:REIT that's local to me that I've been eyeing up for a while, Cedar Realty (CDR) After looking at this... it IS interesting. Did you do anything with it? So it's mostly shopping centers, generally anchored by supermarkets. Not great, but not as bad as your average indoor mall. Their top 20 tenants, responsible for about 40% of their revenues, are mostly going to make it through this--though stuff like UA Cinemas and the gyms might be in trouble. Then you have all the other smaller tenants worth the other 60% of revenue. They aren't named in the 10-K, but the company helpfully lists them on their website for each of their properties. Here's one I clicked on at random in Harrisburg, PA: quote:Highmark Direct 2,525 SF How many of those default in the next six months? Probably quite a few. Nail salons and mom 'n' pop restaurants aren't known for being particularly well capitalized. But it's also maybe not as bad as I would've thought. If they lose 20% of the top tenants and 50% of the smaller ones overall for this year--this seems extremely pessimistic but not impossible--revenues decline from ~$144MM to $90. Keep all else equal and the company loses around $53MM in 2020 (they pretty much just broke even in 2019). Again, that's a pessimistic scenario. Look at cash flow under that scenario and it's not as bad. 2019's D&A was $45MM, so keeping everything else equal there the operating cash burn would "only" be around $8MM in 2019, which CDR can handle. Net investing cash flow was ($22MM) in 2019. Say we half that for 2020--probably going to defer construction and capex as much as possible. Okay, now we're at $30MM out the door in 2020. In 2019 the company burned another $29MM in common and preferred dividends. Last week CDR slashed the common div down to $0.01 per quarter; they should probably eliminate it entirely, and start deferring on the preferred just to be safe. So let's say under this scenario the company burns $30MM this year after cutting all dividends. That sucks, but it's survivable. They just drew $75MM on the revolver and so long as no covenants are tripped they'll be around into 2021. In Feb 2021 they have to roll a $75MM term loan. That's when the rubber meets the road, because if conditions don't improve by then and lenders are scared off the company is in danger of default. Bottom line: unclear. I give just one particularly pessimistic scenario above, but this wasn't a killer business to begin with, and I imagine every lease renewal that comes up for negotiation in the next few years will be flat or down. I think they'll survive, but it's a tough business. If I was going to do something with CDR I'd probably buy one of the preferreds--they yield 20% at the moment, are cumulative, and if the business goes back to normal they'll triple as they head back to par. But let me know what you do, if you don't mind. What I write above is just a quick-rear end back of the envelope scenario with possibly garbage assumptions. Agronox fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 23:07
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Sepist posted:And futures go up lol oil down to 25.50/26.00, -10% nice 
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Apr 5, 2020 23:11
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Sepist posted:And futures go up Lmao what are they basing this on? The moon?
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Apr 5, 2020 23:15
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Probably the dip in NYC covid cases or deaths or whatever that news was. Thank God pls save my 165 calls.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:17
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Bored As gently caress posted:Lmao what are they basing this on? The moon? A booming death industry.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:17
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If you are digging into REITs, it may also make sense to look into research coming out of the big commercial real estate brokerages. Search like CBRE/Colliers/Cushman&Wakefield/JLL/NGKF and see what their research people are saying about investor demand/projections. Marcus & Millichap has some research too, but they aren’t the same as the other bigs ones. I don’t know if Eastdil Secured puts out research, but all these sources can help you figure out what might change to the asset values underlying the REITs.
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Apr 5, 2020 23:21
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1246925577967357953 Here we go. e: also relevant to oil prices https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1246927163711819777 saintonan fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 23:35
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Just wanted to say thank you to the thread, I just aced my options test because I've been reading every post in here for the past couple of months instead of studying a boring textbook. You guys are the best <3
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Apr 5, 2020 23:48
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moana posted:Just wanted to say thank you to the thread, I just aced my options test because I've been reading every post in here for the past couple of months instead of studying a boring textbook. You guys are the best <3 Congrats! What are you planning to lose all your money on first?
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Apr 6, 2020 00:28
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Freezer posted:Me, with a bunch of SPXS. I kind of regret the decision to be honest, but let's see how it goes. *Looks at futures*. Well..gently caress.
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Apr 6, 2020 01:29
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Freezer posted:*Looks at futures*. Well..gently caress. Yeah 
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Apr 6, 2020 01:30
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RIP my puts for at least Monday
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Apr 6, 2020 01:44
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Sepist posted:And futures go up What the poo poo is this nonsense
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Apr 6, 2020 01:45
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If it opens up 3% I'm going to have a pleasurable reaction.
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Apr 6, 2020 01:46
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Hey I never heard about trump’s Friday conference with all the oil big boys what happened there? Just another pump attempt?
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Apr 6, 2020 01:52
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I've been doing a deep dive into bond performance over various periods from the past 15 years... ...and man, gently caress, they're just not worth owning unless you're retired. Except for intermed/long treasuries. You REALLY want to own those before the market shits the bed and then dump them after things are back to "normal". I thought I'd be able to find a useful period for high-yield bonds or corporate long-term bonds, but no, not really unless you have really, really good month-to-month market timing (e.g. own them for a while before GFC bottomed in early '09). Anyone here own corporate bonds when the market is calm and no bubble is brewing? If so, which, why? edit: referring to bond etfs / mutual funds pmchem fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 01:54
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I think whether bonds are good or not for you highly depends on the rate you can get from a savings account. Seems like that's been poo poo lately so I have 20% FI in the long term portfolio (mix of corporate/govt bond ETFs) so that I'm not exposed 100% to equities. If I could get 2.5% in a savings account I would probably do that instead.
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Apr 6, 2020 02:01
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At this point I feel the market should go up at least one point per million unemployed.
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Apr 6, 2020 02:05
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Futures are up, of course I didn’t factor in most companies missing their earnings reports, mass unemployment, and deaths on a scale not seen since 9/11. To the moon
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Apr 6, 2020 02:10
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Comrayn posted:Hey I never heard about trump’s Friday conference with all the oil big boys what happened there? Just another pump attempt? they postponed it until mid-this week, approx, etc. 
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Apr 6, 2020 02:17
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Risky Bisquick posted:Futures are up, of course I didn’t factor in most companies missing their earnings reports, mass unemployment, and deaths on a scale not seen since 9/11. To the moon I cannot believe this loving market.
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Apr 6, 2020 02:28
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https://twitter.com/markets/status/1246966795501735946 Anything at all to make number go up.
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Apr 6, 2020 02:29
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java posted:I cannot believe this loving market. When the folks holding it up finally stop poo poo is gonna crash so hard. I’ve seen multiple people say once it breaks your looking at S&P 1800’s
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Apr 6, 2020 02:31
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