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My parents have been readers of the Motley Fool for a long time. They've made a lot (to me) of money since they started buying individual stocks after 2008/2009. Probably 400k to 500k. Motley Fool has helped them quite a few times, but there were also tips that they've invested $1000 or $5,000 in, where they took a bath on it and lost 90% of what they put in. On other tips, if they'd invested $10,000 or $20,000, instead of $500 or $1,000, they'd have made a fortune. To me, it seems hit or miss, but from what they told me, it's more hit than miss.
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Apr 8, 2020 06:39
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The Dark Project posted:Yeah I was thinking it might be a trap as well, which is why I'd hold off myself. But I don't have much to go on other than the fact that the virus isn't likely to subside anytime soon and the after-effects will still be around. Those recommendations are probably ok, you don't really have a lot else to go on unless you are familiar with the company. I guess any time someone recommends a small pharmaceutical company with a promising but unproven new treatment there's always going to be a bit of risk involved compared to a company in the ASX100 with a track record of good performance. It might be worth having a chat to a financial adviser in this case, just to get a feel for your level of risk tolerance and maybe get some tips from a professional on diversifying etc as well.
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Apr 8, 2020 06:39
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only reliable way to beat the market is to have material nonpublic information. "unreliable" may mean "works for decades straight and fucks you in decade 4" tho. and "you shook hands with the board, had lunch, and realized they are all to a man and woman idiot fucksticks" is material nonpublic and you can totally trade on it. other stuff, maybe not so much
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Apr 8, 2020 06:42
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I was feeling good, long ES to grab a handful of points before bed and then WHOOSH 
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Apr 8, 2020 07:18
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/fears-of-crisis-in-uk-car-finance-market-as-owners-seek-payments-help Guessing US hire purchases are similarly subprime?
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Apr 8, 2020 08:15
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Shelvocke posted:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/fears-of-crisis-in-uk-car-finance-market-as-owners-seek-payments-help I assume the 60 day freezes are more to give the government time to bail them out than any kind of expectation that this will be over and people will be back working again.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:58
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Pivotal Lever posted:You’re looking for depth of market. You can see this in thinkorswim, go on the website into the subscriptions area and enable NASDAQ Level 2 data. Then in the client you can see orders in the depth tab. Order amounts at different levels don’t really tell you all that much, it’s the order flow that matters. Thanks. There's a couple different 'depth' things in thinkorswim. On the charts tab, there's "product depth", which is showing me implied vol on various options. But I also found the "market depth" widget which lives in left panel, which is showing me some bid/ask flows. They're near current market price though, so I assume this is the order flow you mention. I can't see any standing limit orders far from market price, e.g. sells at 275 or buys at 260. I guess that information is just not available? I'm basically wondering if I can see the number of standing limit orders at various exchanges/brokerages, for milestones away from market price. To see resistance levels. Yes, those orders could be cancelled, but presumably there's a small transaction/effort cost to doing that. Since I don't see other posts or web articles about this I'm probably barking up the wrong tree.
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Apr 8, 2020 12:56
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The Dark Project posted:Yeah I was thinking it might be a trap as well, which is why I'd hold off myself. But I don't have much to go on other than the fact that the virus isn't likely to subside anytime soon and the after-effects will still be around. If the stock pickers at the Motley Fool (or anywhere else that sells stock ideas) were really good at picking winners they wouldn’t need to run a news site that sells stock ideas. They’d just buy the stocks and reap the rewards. Bored As gently caress posted:My parents have been readers of the Motley Fool for a long time. They've made a lot (to me) of money since they started buying individual stocks after 2008/2009. Probably 400k to 500k. Motley Fool has helped them quite a few times, but there were also tips that they've invested $1000 or $5,000 in, where they took a bath on it and lost 90% of what they put in. On other tips, if they'd invested $10,000 or $20,000, instead of $500 or $1,000, they'd have made a fortune. To me, it seems hit or miss, but from what they told me, it's more hit than miss. From 2009 to February 2020 we had the longest bull market in history. It was extremely hard not to make money. The question your parents would want to ask themselves is whether they were able to outperform whatever benchmark index they were trying to beat that was running over the same period.
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Apr 8, 2020 13:02
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doingitwrong posted:From 2009 to February 2020 we had the longest bull market in history. It was extremely hard not to make money. This gets said as if everyone wasn't screeching about THE FED and QE!!! and FAKE MARKETS and BUYBACKS and BUBBLES the whole loving way up. A lot of people missed out on a lot of those gains. It was easy to make money if you sat on your hands, but mostly people don't do that.
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Apr 8, 2020 13:14
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This is true. My critique of the stock picking website does presume that its readers are using it to pick stocks.
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Apr 8, 2020 13:24
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I mean you’re almost certainly better off getting your advice from Motley Fool than HERE
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Apr 8, 2020 13:33
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doingitwrong posted:If the stock pickers at the Motley Fool (or anywhere else that sells stock ideas) were really good at picking winners they wouldn’t need to run a news site that sells stock ideas. They’d just buy the stocks and reap the rewards. More to the point, the question would be whether they were able to outperform that benchmark index without taking on an absurd amount of risk. It sounds like they were very much doing that, given that some of their picks lost 90% of their value during a very extended bull market. If all of this going on right now had hit while they were trying to do that, chances are they would've lost their rear end in short order.
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Apr 8, 2020 13:35
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paternity suitor posted:This gets said as if everyone wasn't screeching about THE FED and QE!!! and FAKE MARKETS and BUYBACKS and BUBBLES the whole loving way up. A lot of people missed out on a lot of those gains. It was easy to make money if you sat on your hands, but mostly people don't do that. I don't agree with this. The data we have since the invention of index funds says that holding broad market index funds and doing nothing will outperform active management. I think if you're going to pick stocks you have to look at your opportunity cost objectively. You have an alternative whereby doing nothing you can match the markets performance. That means that A. you have to be beating the market or else you're losing money, and 2. you have to be beating the market by enough that you're also getting a good enough return on your time spent, because the alternative is literally doing nothing and matching the market returns. It's fine if people that have their retirement sorted out want to pick individual stocks for fun. If someone can beat the market year after year they should do it with all their money. Hell, they should probably start a hedge fund and do it with other people's money. I just feel like anybody doing it should be taking a sober look at their actual performance
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Apr 8, 2020 13:41
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Asleep Style posted:holding broad market index funds and doing nothing will outperform active management. Isn't that exactly what his post meant by "it was easy to make money if you sat on your hands" ?
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Apr 8, 2020 13:52
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1247636945179729926?s=20 I'd be all over an ETF like that if they scrapped the insanely overvalued gimmick stocks of zoom and peloton. About everything else there is staged to grow well over the next few years. pixaal posted:Is this serious, or are you trying to eat posts on this page with a powerful argument and derail? We can find a better derail. Our only solace in this dark time is knowing "holy poo poo we would be even more turbo hosed if Joe 'alzheimers' Biden was trying to run the country"
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Apr 8, 2020 13:52
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flowinprose posted:Isn't that exactly what his post meant by "it was easy to make money if you sat on your hands" ? Yeah, I just meant that sitting on your hands should be taken as the baseline scenario
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Apr 8, 2020 13:57
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:I mean you’re almost certainly better off getting your advice from Motley Fool than HERE  As far as beating index fund returns goes: 1) that's not the point of this thread 2) go cash while a well-documented viral plague is ravaging China, then hoover up distressed blue chips from the rubble
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Apr 8, 2020 14:00
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futures just spiked right when this tweet showed up https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1247873234697158657?s=20
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Apr 8, 2020 14:06
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Asleep Style posted:I don't agree with this. The data we have since the invention of index funds says that holding broad market index funds and doing nothing will outperform active management. I’d be very interested to understand how OP’s parents tracked SP500’s performance, but I doubt he’d easily get that info.
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Apr 8, 2020 14:27
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The sort of counterpoint is that retiring with $0, $50,000, and $250,000 are all almost the same thing so you might as well try to get rich quick.
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Apr 8, 2020 14:29
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Trading jobs numbers is generally a stupid idea because its a lagging indicator. however the setup looks pretty good now considering we have 1) government stimulus priced in yesterday, and now 2) potential COVID turnaround being priced in.
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Apr 8, 2020 14:34
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I've been expanding the data in my little spreadsheet to derive out first and second derivatives and their 5 day averages. The 5 day average acceleration has been trending up from a low ~3/22/20, but still sub 1.0. It's definitely reading tea leaves area, but if acceleration IS picking up, we're probably not at peak badness this week.
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Apr 8, 2020 14:40
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pmchem posted:futures just spiked right when this tweet showed up Now even Fauci's buying options and manipulating the market!
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Apr 8, 2020 14:46
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https://twitter.com/Stocktwits/status/1247886536818823170?s=20 nice chart (correlation does not imply causation, etc.)
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Apr 8, 2020 15:00
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https://twitter.com/axios/status/1247884920304746500
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Apr 8, 2020 15:02
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[bangs fists on table] Number! Only! Go! Up!
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Apr 8, 2020 15:07
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Staples: "Yeah, we've got that" except rent
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Apr 8, 2020 15:07
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Cheesecake Factory and Staples are acting as the vanguard of our revolution by rebelling against landlordism.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:09
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 Nintendo 
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Apr 8, 2020 15:13
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:The sort of counterpoint is that retiring with $0, $50,000, and $250,000 are all almost the same thing so you might as well try to get rich quick. Are those the only options?
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Apr 8, 2020 15:13
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Residency Evil posted:Are those the only options? ima take two fiddy
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Apr 8, 2020 15:17
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Residency Evil posted:Are those the only options? No the other is having more money. Most people aren’t going to get 2 million for retirement investing in indexes and if you’re not you might as well gamble pretty aggressively. A 6-figure investment account will pay for your first retirement trip to the hospital and you’ll spend 5 figures on self-insuring pretty fast.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:20
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Motley Fool is so funny, I remember many many years ago I read through one of their books (which was quite good), railing against actively managed funds and pushing index funds. Now they run an actively managed fund. That $ turns you.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:25
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Residency Evil posted:Are those the only options? 'dignified retirement' is increasingly out of reach of 'most' people. If you were making an 'average' income of $61937 in the U.S. when you got out of college (which, 50% of people aren't), and saved 8% (most people have less than $1000 saved) and got 2% COLA adjustments each year, every year, and social security is solvent when you retire, and you can get by on 75% of your pre-retirement income, THEN you get to make it to the ripe old age of 100 before you're destitute: https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/retirement-plan-calculator.aspx Remove any one of those possible but precarious criteria and you'll be bust before 100. Yeah, you probably won't make it to 100, but things fall off FAST, if you can't live on 75% and need 90% (which is fairly in line with saving 8%) then you're bust at 89. If you're making good money while working then retirement is an option. If you're not then you've got a long exhausting life in front of you.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:29
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:No the other is having more money. Most people aren’t going to get 2 million for retirement investing in indexes and if you’re not you might as well gamble pretty aggressively. A 6-figure investment account will pay for your first retirement trip to the hospital and you’ll spend 5 figures on self-insuring pretty fast. Moving past the fact that many people can't save for retirement at all in this country, this forum at least is primarily full of computer touchers who are able to earn high five figures/low six figures and can hit that $2M number investing in index funds. But sure, gamble aggressively with a portion of your portfolio once you've satisfied those initial savings.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:31
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:No the other is having more money. Most people aren’t going to get 2 million for retirement investing in indexes and if you’re not you might as well gamble pretty aggressively. A 6-figure investment account will pay for your first retirement trip to the hospital and you’ll spend 5 figures on self-insuring pretty fast. brutal
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Apr 8, 2020 15:31
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WallStreetBets is open again after a mod coup. Jartek was banned for taking money to promote some kind of financial training or stock picking service on the sub. No word on whether he still plans to hold a live options trading tournament in an e-sports arena.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:32
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are we just ignoring the existence of medicare in this scenario
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Apr 8, 2020 15:34
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:are we just ignoring the existence of medicare in this scenario Yes, that and social security.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:34
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Residency Evil posted:Yes, that and social security. I don't expect either to exist in any usable form when I retire.
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Apr 8, 2020 15:36
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