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Manager Hoyden
Mar 5, 2020

Mat Cauthon posted:

"Dow jumps 400 points after Sanders drops out of presidential race"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Well that tells the whole story I think.

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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Mat Cauthon posted:

"Dow jumps 400 points after Sanders drops out of presidential race"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
Of course

Again, the DNC and their megadonors were always more afraid of Bernie than Trump. Because Trump they can control, to a degree.

TheKingofSprings
Oct 9, 2012

FlamingLiberal posted:

It's also still April and a million things can happen between now and November, especially with this virus killing people off left and right. Like today things look good for the Dems in the Senate, but who the hell knows how much Trump and the GOP are actually going to take the blame for this virus. It's still unclear.

If the situation holds until November Coronavirus is liable to be a voter suppression wet dream for the right because the left understandably isn't going to be willing to kill themselves to go out and vote for Biden in person

Munkeymon
Aug 14, 2003

Motherfucker's got an
armor-piercing crowbar! Rigoddamndicu𝜆ous.



Tibalt posted:

They are doing poorly in Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Let's give the Democrats a 75% chance in each of those states, sure. Their actual odds are probably worse, but whatever. That's still a less than 50% chance to flip all three.

That doesn't flip the Senate without keeping Jones or picking up an additional seat. You're looking at an additional seat in Arizona or Georgia, both R+5 states PVI. I'll give you a 50/50 shot at any of them. 12.5% chance Democrats fail to pick up on those 3, on top of that 57% chance they fail to flip CO, ME, and NC, and you've got a pretty good chance that the Democrats don't control the Senate even with a Biden presidency. Sure, i'm over simplifying, but I doubt you're somehow flipping McSally or Loeffler if you can't unseat Tillis or Collins.

Needing to win 4 coin flips out if 6, even with a weighted coin, aren't good odds.

Isn't McSally ~25 points underwater in polling or something silly like that?

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

Monaghan posted:

This is completely loving untrue. His climate plan wasn't as good as bernies, but he's not a denier for fucks sake

anyone not advocating a GND and an absolutely massive climate change policy is ignoring the science and is a denier. the GND does not even go far enough at all and is closer to a compromise plan than an actually effective one. Biden will have us back in the paris accord and act like it meant something.

Willo567 posted:

So that's your plan? Let Trump irreversibly gently caress up the planet for another four years, then MAYBE people will vote for AOC or Rashida?

yes, things are that bad, thats where we are. there is no more time for long games and the slow plodding advance of progressive causes that over the past 100 years has given rights to women and minorities. we dont have 100 more years. we are out of time, its already too late and we are already in the mitigation phase. biden will not even try to mitigate, he will put a band aid on a sucking chest wound and dust his hands off.

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


And maybe if Joe Biden wanted me to vote for him, he should have made literally any effort to win my vote, or hell, even expressed any kind of policy whatsoever. As it stands today, they could have nominated the goddamn empty chair Clint Eastwood got into an argument with at the RNC eight million years ago and I would know exactly as much about its positions.

aas Bandit
Sep 28, 2001
Oompa Loompa
Nap Ghost

Paracaidas posted:

Joe Biden is a deeply flawed and lovely candidate. His policies and platform also represent large steps forward from the status quo in many areas. Tens of millions more Americans with healthcare (more, with Dem congressional control), an NLRB and DoL that aggressively takes action against wage theft and IC misclassification (potentially even bringing back the Perez exemption-classification changes, which were briefly the biggest win for wage employees in decades) , withhold federal contracts from any company that won't commit to not run anti-union campaigns and who doesn't have $15/hr min wage.

Additionally, refunding and prioritizing OCR at Justice, continuing the creation and enforcement of consent decrees against local police departments. Creating a review process(outside of Justice!) on federal prosecutorial discretion. Weed decrim and expunging of past convictions. Reversing Trump's rescission of the order ending federal use of private prisons. Changing grant rules to require states to end the incarceration of minors for "crimes" that would be legal but for their age ("status offenses"). Using executive orders to remove/reduce restrictions on access to resources, support, and employment based on past criminal histories.

This list is not exhaustive (literally, only two platform planks). Pointedly, it's mostly things that Biden will be able to do through executive powers alone, even if the GOP retains the Senate or regains the House.

This is miles from the outcome that I wanted from the primary and I'm livid over it. Biden, Pete, and Bloomberg were the three that were worst case scenarios for me as the Dem nominee. But there's a difference between "nowhere near good enough" and "not good at all in any way", and it's helpful to remember that.

Thank you for this. I had about half of a long-rear end effortpost typed up, and you basically covered the same ground.

Also, doom-saying accelerationist folks in this thread, holy poo poo. Take a walk. Take some deep breaths.
Going full-on "we're all going to die so burn it all down and gently caress everything with no lube" is bad and helps no one, despite how you feel at the moment.
People are so loving broken sometimes (as is this country, so I suppose it's not too surprising).

Edit:

The Sean posted:

Dude, this is bullying. This is predatory behavior.

LOL, you're posting on the internet.

aas Bandit fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Apr 8, 2020

Dietrich
Sep 11, 2001

Angry_Ed posted:

Again, what is this One Weird Trick?

Force a constitutional crisis and hope you win the public opinion war that follows.

The Sean
Apr 17, 2005

Am I handsome now?


Willo567 posted:

Really? Every going "gently caress Biden, I'm voting in Bernie" knows drat well that Bernie doesn't have a shot right now at the presidency.

Instead of choosing the lesser of two evils, they're going to risk the orange turd having another four years of loving EVERYONE over.

How is that NOT helping Trump

Dude, this is bullying. This is predatory behavior.

"You have to do what I say because it can be worse. Yes, it's bad but it could be worse!" is a threat.

Given that Dems are a centrist-right party, them putting out a right leaning candidate is them forcing us to vote in their interests. Biden doesn't represent my interests. Biden will not work to help me. Biden will not work to help those who are worse off from me.

Let's go on a thought experiment. If you were in charge of the dem party but wanted to make sure that your financial interests were safe, what would you do? Would you run a basically republican candidate that's not going to gently caress with your investments, change the power structure at all, block healthcare and education from poor people? Yeah, you probably would. What's the best way to do that? "Oh hey look at this guy with a republican platform but jee golly he'll definitely defeat trump!"

Your "choose the lesser of the two evils" is something that I would heavily rely upon if I were evil. "Well, if these dipshits are going to choose the lesser of two evils then I can put someone out there who is evil but just slightly less evil than the alternative. It's perfect. I still get "evil," what I want, because that is what people will settle for. Why the hell would I put a good candidate out there for if I can just make money off of a 'less evil' candidate?"


Here is an awesome example of right-leaning Dems interacting with their base/potential base:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEPo34LCss8

"You don't have a say. You do what I want or you can gently caress off."

The Sean fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Apr 8, 2020

Unoriginal Name
Aug 1, 2006

by sebmojo

Willo567 posted:

What happens when Trump wins and everything gets even worse then if Biden would have one?

Judging from your own presuppositions, it looks like everything gets worse

But how much worse

Let's get out the old Evil Measurimg Stick and find out exactly how much evil were willing to take folks. Just keep that evil limit right at what everyone is willing to accept

Dont support evil? Nonsense, it's an election year

Asema
Oct 2, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Arist posted:

And maybe if Joe Biden wanted me to vote for him, he should have made literally any effort to win my vote, or hell, even expressed any kind of policy whatsoever. As it stands today, they could have nominated the goddamn empty chair Clint Eastwood got into an argument with at the RNC eight million years ago and I would know exactly as much about its positions.

haven't you heard? His policies are he's not Trump!

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Zachack posted:

Why not pivot them to other policies/topics like the environment?

I don't know why this is so hard to understand, but the trauma of literally being present when federal agents are trying to get into your classroom and possibly deport your friends tends to override other considerations. Likewise, I am not going to loving tell my girlfriend that she should vote for someone she sees as a rapist.

If this is the best you can do, then we really are going to lose because these are bad loving arguments.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
I will crawl over broken glass to vote for Biden despite him being my last choice in the Dem
Primary. What's happening now in Trump's administration is unconscionable. It's killing more people; I will choose for fewer to die.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Mat Cauthon posted:

"Dow jumps 400 points after Sanders drops out of presidential race"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Weird how apparently this time I'm supposed to treat the Stock Market Doing A Thing as a sign when every other time I'm not.

Asema
Oct 2, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Asema posted:

haven't you heard? His policies are he's not Trump!

This worked for Kerry in 2004 btw

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

WoodrowSkillson posted:

anyone not advocating a GND and an absolutely massive climate change policy is ignoring the science and is a denier. the GND does not even go far enough at all and is closer to a compromise plan than an actually effective one.

The GND is 14 pages long, is mostly a set of goals, and includes a few pages that don't directly impact climate policy like a jobs guarantee and pension policies.

I guess I could see the argument that "Only people who endorse the GND are demonstrating commitment to the idea of doing something serious," but the GND is not some kind of prescriptive document that provides a detailed policy road map.

Most major climate groups endorse the spirit of the GND, but don't list it as a policy document.

bird cooch
Jan 19, 2007
Y'all should be mad at all the people who didn't bother to vote. Or toxic supporters or whatever you want, but come up for air. These forums and Twitter and Facebook aren't real life. It's all a bunch of performative bullshit, shibboleth, and self-radicalization.

If you have conversations like this in real life, I feel really sorry for everybody around you.

ColdPie
Jun 9, 2006

WoodrowSkillson posted:

and on top of this all, he is a climate denier who will do absolutely nothing to impact climate policy, and by delaying the chance of actual progressive climate change, we will actually be worse off as a species with him as president vs trump.

I thought this too, but actually if you look at his stated policies, they're pretty good. It includes explicit support for the GND, net-zero emissions by 2050, and nuclear is on the table, which is actually a better position than Sanders. Biden is a poo poo candidate and I'm embarrassed that he's the Dem candidate, but at least on climate change, he's not bad.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

FlamingLiberal posted:

Of course

Again, the DNC and their megadonors were always more afraid of Bernie than Trump. Because Trump they can control, to a degree.
Everyone thinks they can control Trump until he does something even more stupid/evil/narcissistic and upends them entirely. Because they’re trying to get a three-year-old to do something.

Zachack
Jun 1, 2000




WoodrowSkillson posted:

anyone not advocating a GND and an absolutely massive climate change policy is ignoring the science and is a denier. the GND does not even go far enough at all and is closer to a compromise plan than an actually effective one. Biden will have us back in the paris accord and act like it meant something.


yes, things are that bad, thats where we are. there is no more time for long games and the slow plodding advance of progressive causes that over the past 100 years has given rights to women and minorities. we dont have 100 more years. we are out of time, its already too late and we are already in the mitigation phase. biden will not even try to mitigate, he will put a band aid on a sucking chest wound and dust his hands off.

Your fantasy candidate will not be able to implement a GND because the institutions needed to do so will not exist by then and rebuilding will take their entire terms.

TheKingofSprings
Oct 9, 2012
If you won't be putting your life at risk in the process, please go out and vote for Biden; this situation loving sucks and I wish I could say otherwise but another 4 years of Trump will be unimaginable for how bad things will get

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


I'm not voting for a rapist, and I doubt I'll change my mind. I probably won't need to because I live in CT, but I'm leaving that field blank.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1247910504548401157

Almost like this person wasn't a Democrat in 2016!

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

aas Bandit posted:

Thank you for this. I had about half of a long-rear end effortpost typed up, and you basically covered the same ground.

Also, doom-saying accelerationist folks in this thread, holy poo poo. Take a walk. Take some deep breaths.
Going full-on "we're all going to die so burn it all down and gently caress everything with no lube" is bad and helps no one, despite how you feel at the moment.
People are so loving broken sometimes (as is this country, so I suppose it's not too surprising).

are people being hurt now worse than exponentially more of them being hurt later? i don't have the correct loving answer, i can only make my own judgement

what i know is Biden gets us Don Jr or Ivanka or Ted Cruz as president in 2024 and we can all go right back on this loving ride together while having let the climate doomsday clock keep ticking towards midnight for 4 years, and then 4 more, and then MAYBE we get a progressive in 2028. or maybe in 2032 we finally get an actual leftist, when we are so far past the time to do anything that instead of a GND its infrastructure projects based on seawalls, forced relocations, and irrigation projects.

Spiffster
Oct 7, 2009

I'm good... I Haven't slept for a solid 83 hours, but yeah... I'm good...


Lipstick Apathy
I have seen at least two Biden Supporters that have said they see Trump winning as their take away from all this. If that’s the case why the gently caress did you back him to begin with :wtc:

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
Like, I'm not going to make any predictions about how November will go. I don't know. We're living through unprecedented times right now, and the world may look very strange by the time the end of the year rolls around.

That said, if you're thinking of telling someone "I know he may be a rapist, but think of the courts" then just stop. Maybe don't say anything if you can't in good conscience tell people that Joe Biden is, in fact, not a rapist. Because this is one area where trying to say that Trump is worse is definitely not going to work.

DelilahFlowers
Jan 10, 2020

Paradoxish posted:

I mean, I know they're right. I worked in the adult ed school where my girlfriend taught ESL and her parents took their classes. I worked there during the Obama administration, and I had to lock doors and tell federal agents to gently caress off more than once. It was on me because our staff was largely black and Hispanic women, and the assumption was that they'd be less likely to do anything dangerous with a nerdy white guy.

The school was actually in a (very) old factory converted into commercial space. We had an ancient freight elevator - the kind where you'd have to manually close and lock the gates, with big wooden doors on each floor. We had plans in place where I'd have to take that elevator to each floor and put padlocks in place so they couldn't try to get into the classroom area that way.

It's extremely hard for me to take hand wringing over Trump's immigration policies seriously after having that experience.

Jesus christ that is harrowing. Democrats are just as heartless as republicans. I will honestly say that I don't see Biden rerolling Trumps immigrant concentration camps, as it was a natural evolution of his and obama's policy. ICE will still exist to terrorize people. Whatever stricter controls that would be put on won't be de facto and prolly will just amount to media not paying much attention to it anymore, letting them operate more freely.

Munkeymon
Aug 14, 2003

Motherfucker's got an
armor-piercing crowbar! Rigoddamndicu𝜆ous.



Arist posted:

And maybe if Joe Biden wanted me to vote for him, he should have made literally any effort to win my vote, or hell, even expressed any kind of policy whatsoever. As it stands today, they could have nominated the goddamn empty chair Clint Eastwood got into an argument with at the RNC eight million years ago and I would know exactly as much about its positions.

Here are his ""bold"" ideas - pick them apart if you don't like them but pissing and moaning about how they don't actually exist if you don't look at them is weak as hell.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo

The Sean posted:

Dude, this is bullying. This is predatory behavior.

That's weird, I thought bullying works?

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer
On the one hand, saying things would be terrible if Trump won didn't work in 2016.

On the other hand, things are terrible because Trump won in 2016 and will only get worse if he wins in 2020

On the gripping hand, nobody should feel obligated to vote for a rapist, and nobody should if they do not feel comfortable doing so for obvious reasons. But do please vote as leftward as you're able to downticket because that is just as, if not more important. Look at what Virginia has accomplished in just two years. Even if Trump gets a second term there is a chance to do damage control, such as it is, if we push local and state governments leftward.

Monaghan
Dec 29, 2006

mcmagic posted:

https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1247910504548401157

Almost like this person wasn't a Democrat in 2016!

90% of republicans approve of trump, why loving bother going after the minuscule 10%

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


Munkeymon posted:

Here are his ""bold"" ideas - pick them apart if you don't like them but pissing and moaning about how they don't actually exist if you don't look at them is weak as hell.

Dude, I've watched almost all of the debates. That I can't name a single substantive policy of Biden's is a loving problem.

OhDearGodNo
Jan 3, 2014

ITT people blaming everyone for Bernie dropping out other than the fact that people didn’t go out and vote for him.

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

ColdPie posted:

I thought this too, but actually if you look at his stated policies, they're pretty good. It includes explicit support for the GND, net-zero emissions by 2050, and nuclear is on the table, which is actually a better position than Sanders. Biden is a poo poo candidate and I'm embarrassed that he's the Dem candidate, but at least on climate change, he's not bad.

i do not trust for one second that he cares to implement or will be able to implement any of this, given he will have a hostile GOP that ran circles around him and Obama from 08-16

Zachack posted:

Your fantasy candidate will not be able to implement a GND because the institutions needed to do so will not exist by then and rebuilding will take their entire terms.

yeah, poo poo is real bad. will suck even more if that rebuilding is being done in 2032.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

mcmagic posted:

Almost like this person wasn't a Democrat in 2016!

Her second half is incredibly stupid, but she is undoubtedly correct that 90% of Sanders voters will vote for Biden for little or no issue and that a certain group was never reachable.

Somewhere around 85% of Democrats in early March said that they were fine with either nominee.

There's not a ton of Bernie hate or Biden hate amongst most rank and file voters.

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


marshmonkey posted:

That's weird, I thought bullying works?

I wasn't really on-board with the whole "bullying works" meme but poo poo like this is gross gloating.

Asema
Oct 2, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
The moment Sanders drops out suddenly you can vote in the primary through mail-in ballot.

Huh just kinda, weird how things work out

Arist
Feb 13, 2012

who, me?


OhDearGodNo posted:

ITT people blaming everyone for Bernie dropping out other than the fact that people didn’t go out and vote for him.

My primary didn't even happen yet

Yuzenn
Mar 31, 2011

Be weary when you see oppression disguised as progression

The Spirit told me to use discernment and a Smith n Wesson at my discretion

Practice heavy self reflection, avoid self deception
If you lost, get re-direction

WoodrowSkillson posted:

are people being hurt now worse than exponentially more of them being hurt later? i don't have the correct loving answer, i can only make my own judgement

what i know is Biden gets us Don Jr or Ivanka or Ted Cruz as president in 2024 and we can all go right back on this loving ride together while having let the climate doomsday clock keep ticking towards midnight for 4 years, and then 4 more, and then MAYBE we get a progressive in 2028. or maybe in 2032 we finally get an actual leftist, when we are so far past the time to do anything that instead of a GND its infrastructure projects based on seawalls, forced relocations, and irrigation projects.

There are no more progressive movements in 2024, or 2028 or any other year without the SC. I don't know how more clear this can be made, the progressive movement is already near death and is absolutely dead if there is any more ground ceded.

Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Apr 8, 2020

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Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

Fart Amplifier posted:

The senate is going to be very unlikely in even a massive blue wave.

GOP incumbents are losing right now in CO, AZ, and ME. NC is at best a tossup for the GOP. Depending on the candidate they may lose GA and IA as well.

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