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Lemming posted:Yeah and all him saying that does it make it sound like his position that it's safe to vote is what the science says, which it doesn't I read it the opposite way - weird! Anyway, I didn't realize this was part of a pattern of irresponsibility that, you're right, is bad.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:26
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I think we're getting a little off track. I think it's possible for the Rules Committee to change any of The Rules, it just won't happen unless he's dead or dying. Lessail posted:What does left pressure actually mean instead of it being a thought terminating phrase I mean my big Gimmick for that right now is the state and national conventions and I should update / consolidate / dumb down my effortposting for that there are only 4000 some national delegates, pound for pound becoming one is a pretty good way to nudge things left
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Apr 8, 2020 21:26
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This has been a done deal for what, a month? Easy? Where was everyone
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Apr 8, 2020 21:27
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OhDearGodNo posted:People keep saying Bernie would have done better against trump than Biden would... yet couldn’t get enough votes out to win the nomination. https://twitter.com/PerryFellow/status/1240669108485660672?s=19 The primary and the general are two very, very different elections. In the primary, the DNC has a ton of pull, as we saw when the average Democrat went to vote for Biden once the DNC told them to vote for him. If they told everyone to vote for Bernie, they would have. This effect is not very useful in the general election and it's all Biden has going for him
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Apr 8, 2020 21:28
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Isn't Biden's campaign like penniless?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:28
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Nothing Will Fundamentally Change 2020 How You Gonna Pay For It 2020
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Apr 8, 2020 21:28
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Pick posted:This has been a done deal for what, a month? Easy? Where was everyone They were already having this exact conversation in the Primary thread, just instead of the other side of it being people who already knew biden was the nominee the other side of it was people who wanted to believe a turnaround for Bernie was still possible.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:28
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Arglebargle III posted:Isn't Biden's campaign like penniless? it was, through super tuesday, at which point all the donors who'd been backing everyone else decided to come home out of fear, with the single notable exception of the megadonor who told Elizabeth Warren "no really honey stay in you've definitely got this here's 200 mil" with a straight face.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:30
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at least we are all here debating and discussing, a higher and more ennobling act than mere talking, and, if I may say so, debating and discussing might in fact have the power to make terrible opinions BECOME good, with enough eloquence and a paucity in partisanship, preventing politicking from potential proletarians pocketing popular public policy to prepare against particularly pathetic "patriots"
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Apr 8, 2020 21:30
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:it was, through super tuesday, at which point all the donors who'd been backing everyone else decided to come home out of fear, with the single notable exception of the megadonor who told Elizabeth Warren "no really honey stay in you've definitely got this here's 200 mil" with a straight face. Who donated $200 million to Elizabeth Warren after Super Tuesday?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Who donated $200 million to Elizabeth Warren after Super Tuesday?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:33
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Dietrich posted:Elections are not coin flips, and results in one state are highly correlated with results in another. There aren't many probable outcomes where NC or ME flips but CO does not. If the national turnout on the dem coalition is high enough to flip Arizona, then it's very likely we have the senate. What odds do you give Gardner in CO? Would you say "0%"? No, you wouldn't, because the probabilty of the events themselves are independent. The same goes for the results on AL, ME, GA, and NC. There is a chance that the Democrats flip all of them, or none of them, or some combination in between. Sum them all up, and the possibilities of D+4 or more is less likely than the possibilities of D+3 or less.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:39
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That's not correct.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:41
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the primary is over haha primary posting go brrr
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Apr 8, 2020 21:42
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Pick posted:That's not correct.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:42
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The odds that it will be three or fewer is always less than the odds of it being four or fewer, but the actual odds of three flips versus four depends on the conditions in each state. If each of four states had a 99% odds of flipping, the odds of four flips would be greater than the odds of only three, while the odds of 3+ would still exceed the odds of 4, with 3+ obviously being inclusive of four.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:43
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Tibalt posted:Okay. Walk with me here. Let's assume AZ flips, okay? You see the results for AZ but are being asked to guess about CO. Keep in mind the Republicans are defending twice as many seats as the Dems (A whopping 23 out of 35), so the Dems straight up have more chances to cause unexpected flips, Republican money will be spread thinner, and if the Dems win the presidency they only need 3 seats with the VP tiebreaker.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:44
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Pick posted:The odds that it will be three or fewer is always less than the odds of it being four or fewer, but the actual odds of three flips versus four depends on the conditions in each state. If each of four states had a 99% odds of flipping, the odds of four flips would be greater than the odds of only three, while the odds of 3+ would still exceed the odds of 4, with 3+ obviously being inclusive of four. The Democrats don't have a 99% chance of keeping Alabama.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:46
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Tibalt posted:Great. Right, that's like a 0%. I don't know why Jones voted like he was pretending he could keep it.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:47
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Personally, I really like what they did with Darkwing Duck in the new series. It was a great throwback to the original while still making it a unique spin on the character. Gizmo Duck is a little too close to the original, I'm not real sold on him. I do really like Secret Agent Beasley though.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:51
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Lemming posted:It depends on what you mean by "offer" This is what really scares me for the general. We're already moving on to the stage where we swear that if you just check their website there's a great plan waiting. We're really just going to speedrun the 2016 election, aren't we?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:52
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Medullah posted:Personally, I really like what they did with Darkwing Duck in the new series. It was a great throwback to the original while still making it a unique spin on the character. Gizmo Duck is a little too close to the original, I'm not real sold on him. I do really like Secret Agent Beasley though. 
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Apr 8, 2020 21:54
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Is it going to be unwise to hope for a brighter future for sometime? Even if I have no agency in many of the crises devouring this country?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:55
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Hey today sucks balls but I just learned that Linda Tripp was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer a week ago and she just croaked so maybe it ain't all poo poo. I mean FF7 comes out tomorrow rite?
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Apr 8, 2020 21:55
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Grouchio posted:Is it going to be unwise to hope for a brighter future for sometime? Even if I have no agency in many of the crises devouring this country? Hope for the best, sure, but expect the worst.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:56
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Grouchio posted:Is it going to be unwise to hope for a brighter future for sometime? Even if I have no agency in many of the crises devouring this country? It is never unwise to hope for a brighter future.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:56
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Grouchio posted:Is it going to be unwise to hope for a brighter future for sometime? Even if I have no agency in many of the crises devouring this country? Always hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. e: beaten! that's it, last time I hope for anything
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Apr 8, 2020 21:57
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Medullah posted:Personally, I really like what they did with Darkwing Duck in the new series. It was a great throwback to the original while still making it a unique spin on the character. Gizmo Duck is a little too close to the original, I'm not real sold on him. I do really like Secret Agent Beasley though. Personally I'm more of a fan of the older grittier Darkwing Duck in the Duck Knight series.
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Apr 8, 2020 21:57
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https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1247984665585233920 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWa0dZMHYeE
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Apr 8, 2020 21:57
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Xombie posted:I literally said it several hours ago: There's been a concerted campaign of voter suppression going on for the last four years, like an active full court press beyond the usual disenfranchisement and bullshit: https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020/ Arglebargle III posted:Isn't Biden's campaign like penniless? IIRC Biden has like $12 million cash on hand and Sanders has somewhere around $20 million? Biden's campaign is actively trying to get the date where they can start to tap general election money moved up because he is not fundraising enough to be viable past like next month. "The Sanders campaign had raised $182 million by the end of February, with roughly $19 million cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission records. The Biden campaign, meanwhile, had raised $88 million and had $12 million cash on hand at that point in the campaign." Edit: cited from here: https://theintercept.com/2020/04/08/bernie-sanders-drops-out/ God those numbers are bleak. Sanders raised literally twice as much money as Biden, the vast majority of it from working class people, and still got turbofucked. Electoral politics are a joke. Mat Cauthon fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Apr 8, 2020 |
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Apr 8, 2020 21:58
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Always hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. No such thing as beaten, friendo. We're comrades in hope for a brighter tomorrow.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:00
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SKULL.GIF posted:The DNC must replace Biden as the nominee. Having a credibly accused rapist for the party's nomination is unacceptable. The only way this is happening because of the rape allegation is if Obama says so.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:01
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OhDearGodNo posted:People keep saying Bernie would have done better against trump than Biden would... yet couldn’t get enough votes out to win the nomination. As long as the reality you're espousing is about how the media annointed biden because he was the first one to really beat bernie in any contest, and that the reality is bernie never stood a chance because there is no way dems would have let even just a democratic socialist near the levers of power and would rather have 4 more years of trump than that, then sure.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:02
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LITERALLY MY FETISH posted:As long as the reality you're espousing is about how the media annointed biden because he was the first one to really beat bernie in any contest, and that the reality is bernie never stood a chance because there is no way dems would have let even just a democratic socialist near the levers of power and would rather have 4 more years of trump than that, then sure. Why are you invalidating other people’s votes? Maybe you’re right, I don’t know. But again you’re blaming the media when the fact is more people voted for Biden. Maybe SA, reddit, and twitter don’t reflect the country after all.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:04
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Has anyone done a proper Marxist analysis of Duck Tales?
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Apr 8, 2020 22:05
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Mat Cauthon posted:
Shouldn't it be good that money doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with electoral success, though?
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Apr 8, 2020 22:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Shouldn't it be good that money doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with electoral success, though? It still does. The earned media is just not in that fundraising figure.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:06
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Doctor Teeth posted:https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1247984665585233920 I was wondering how long until this poo poo started trickling in
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Apr 8, 2020 22:06
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Tibalt posted:Okay. Walk with me here. Let's assume AZ flips, okay? You see the results for AZ but are being asked to guess about CO. As of right now, I'd arrange all the possible flips and holds in this sequence of likelihood, starting with the most likely, ending with the greatest stretch. CO > AZ > NC > ME > AL > GA > IA > KS > MT What you're saying is that 3 flips is more likely than 4 flips. I agree, but not because of pure probabilities multiplied against each other. If people think there's a 50% chance that D turnout is high enough to hold Alabama, then it's more likely than not that it's also high enough to flip ME, NC, AZ, and CO. Not 100%, sure, but like 80-90%, because turnout does vary state to state, however it is strongly correlated. So rather than .75 * .75 * .75 * .5 for 21%, just doing .5 (or whatever the odds for the tipping point state are) * .8 (or whatever you want to consider the probability of correlation with the states above it), for 40% is probably closer to the real odds.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:07
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Grouchio posted:Is it going to be unwise to hope for a brighter future for sometime? Even if I have no agency in many of the crises devouring this country? I'll never dissuade someone from punching themselves in the face in the hope that next time might hurt less.
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Apr 8, 2020 22:09
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