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Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.

Shaocaholica posted:

If people could predict the future no one would be trillionaires.

True. We would be smart enough not to inflate the currency for immediate relief without worrying about the longterm consequences of devaluing our dollar.

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Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Shaocaholica posted:

If people could predict the future no one would be trillionaires.

Today's lotto numbers are 3, 5, 17, 21, 24, and 32

There are 217 million winning tickets this week, including the bonus. Please claim your prize of $0.84 at your nearest lottery retailer.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
hold on, hold on - i'm getting something here....

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Gianthogweed posted:

I think a lot of people are going to move out cities as a result of this.

the HoA released the virus to drive up property values in the burbs

Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.

poverty goat posted:

the HoA released the virus to drive up property values in the burbs

And all this time I've been wanting to get out of the burbs and move closer to the city. Guess I should be glad I didn't. If housing prices go down in the city I may finally be able to afford an apt. in NYC, but I'm not sure I want one anymore ...

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

Gianthogweed posted:

I think a lot of people are going to move out cities as a result of this.

Most people don't live where they choose; they live where there's work. Where would these city dwellers go without revitalizing the downtown areas of thousands of nowhere towns?

Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.

i am harry posted:

Most people don't live where they choose; they live where there's work. Where would these city dwellers go without revitalizing the downtown areas of thousands of nowhere towns?

I work in the city (or at least I used to before this happened) but live in the burbs. Commuting sucks but a lot of people do it.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Mozi posted:

hold on, hold on - i'm getting something here....



Trump's most trusted advisory committee. . . except he left his on the radiator one afternoon and now it's stuck at "It is Certain". The problem being he only asks one question over and over.

"I'm doing a great job." (which isn't really a question, as he doesn't even phrase it as one)

Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.
I'm hoping I'll be able to work from home permanently after this. Really, there's no point in forcing people to commute if it's possible to work remotely. Think of how much traffic would improve, less people burning fossil fuels and having to rely on public transportation. I have a feeling a lot of bosses are still going to be assholes though and force people to come in.

spinst
Jul 14, 2012



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This credit is subject to approval by state regulators.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Gianthogweed posted:

I'm hoping I'll be able to work from home permanently after this. Really, there's no point in forcing people to commute if it's possible to work remotely. Think of how much traffic would improve, less people burning fossil fuels and having to rely on public transportation. I have a feeling a lot of bosses are still going to be assholes though and force people to come in.

"Even though you're getting the same. . . no, <flips through reports> even more work accomplished from home, I think I need to have you come into the office again so that I can justify your paycheque."

Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.

Blistex posted:

"Even though you're getting the same. . . no, <flips through reports> even more work accomplished from home, I think I need to have you come into the office again so that I can justify your paycheque."

Exactly. I get so much more work done from home and can focus more time on my work and health because I don't have to worry about commuting. Granted I'm single and I don't have kids so I don't have any distractions (besides posting on SA), but still.

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Gianthogweed posted:

No they did the best they could. But the fact remains you can't predict the future. Like I said before, the models were directionally accurate, so if we didn't practice any social distancing more people would have died. That's evidenced by the fact that areas with low population density weren't as badly hit. But there's no way to know how many more. There's too many variables. The best we can do is come up with very rough estimates. And that's what the models are: very rough estimates.


I'm used to be an economics teacher and statistics is a big part of economic predictions. But you don't have to have a strong background in statistics to figure this out. It's common sense. If people could create models that could accurately predict the future, there would be trillionaires walking around your local neighborhood and no one would make any bad investments. The models that are accurate tend to be smaller scale and involve a lot less unknown variables.

Your post made it seem like you think the point of the models is to persuade rather than predict. The point of the model is to predict. It may be that that prediction is persuasive.

And people make models that accurately predict the future all the time. What's common sense isn't that you can't predict the future, it's that you can't do it in every situation about every possible subject.

I also think it's kinda of weird that you're talking about this in the past tense ("weren't as badly hit") when we're not even near the peak and it remains to be seen precisely how badly hit most places will be.

Gianthogweed
Jun 3, 2004

"And then I see the disinfectant...where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that. Uhh, by injection inside..." - a Very Stable Genius.

bird with big dick posted:

Your post made it seem like you think the point of the models is to persuade rather than predict. The point of the model is to predict. It may be that that prediction is persuasive.

And people make models that accurately predict the future all the time. What's common sense isn't that you can't predict the future, it's that you can't do it in every situation about every possible subject.

I also think it's kinda of weird that you're talking about this in the past tense ("weren't as badly hit") when we're not even near the peak and it remains to be seen precisely how badly hit most places will be.

I can only go by past/present tense because I can't predict the future. But past trends usually (but not always) do tend to be a good indication of future trends. Do you honestly think low density population areas like the countryside will have nearly as many deaths per square mile than high density population areas like NYC in the long term?

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread

Xibanya posted:

I either have mild roni or I caught the strangest chest cold of my life. startling maybe 5 days ago I was having chest pain and pressure, and I kept feeling like I was going to cough, but I never did. had fever intermittently. It was getting tough to breathe a few nights ago but it’s fine now. I started coughing yesterday and am still coughing now. what’s weird about it is aside from headache and general feeling tired and lovely, there’s nothing else that you usually get with a cold - no congestion or drippy nose, no sore throat. I’ve also never had any illness that gave me that “I need to cough” feeling for days with no actual cough. well I guess I had the weird symptom of my eyes ached? It was strange. really hoping this doesn’t take a turn for the worse but I think the really bad cases got really bad by 5 days in? and maybe I don’t even have the roni I just coincidentally got a chest cold that doesn’t act like any chest cold I’ve ever had in my life (a novel chest cold, if you will?) If I’m past the worst of it, then it wasn’t too terrible. The real head trip is knowing that it’s possible that being around me could be deadly for other people. what the gently caress. like the worst superpower.
Yet another post describing the symptoms of Covid-19, the pandemic sweeping through the population of planet Earth but wondering if it actually is that. :)
Hi goon! Very likely it is and GBS super hopes you are ok. Please keep posting itt and let us know.
:sympathy:

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Gianthogweed posted:

I can only go by past/present tense because I can't predict the future. But past trends usually (but not always) do tend to be a good indication of future trends. Do you honestly think low density population areas like the countryside will have nearly as many deaths per square mile than high density population areas like NYC in the long term?

Then you say "haven't been" or "likely won't be" you don't say "weren't" good thing you weren't an English teacher.

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread
Update on my situation: My developmentally disabled brother with multiple comorbidities that I forced my 70 yr old mother to pull out of his group home and stay with us (I'm with her now) does NOT have to go back to the group home, they are waiving the state requirements that he not spend more than 70 nights away.

Tldr^ I finally made a really good decision and kept my family safe by
1. Leaving my horrific dangerous job
2. Getting my brother and mother all together so we can all shelter in place

My mom is a Christian Scientist so this took some real emotional blackmail, idgaf

William Henry Hairytaint
Oct 29, 2011



Glad you were able to get your bro someplace safer. Stay safe and try to stay unbored.

Sumatra_7
Mar 27, 2010
Outrageous Lumpwad

Telsa Cola posted:

Its actually a pretty big man power sink and waste at this point.

Imagine the entire extra process needed to obtain and safely test everyones pet after the owner got sick. You would likely need another entire chain of PPE for veterinarians to safely do it because you can bet if I am testing a cat or whatever for Covid then I am going to be suited up like the cat is contagious.

There are also a ton of other logistic issues like who would you ask to produce tests in sufficient quantities that the animal tests wouldnt cut into production and supplies used for human tests?

Abbott Diagnostics

Cousin Todd
Jul 3, 2007
Grimey Drawer

Spinz posted:

Update on my situation: My developmentally disabled brother with multiple comorbidities that I forced my 70 yr old mother to pull out of his group home and stay with us (I'm with her now) does NOT have to go back to the group home, they are waiving the state requirements that he not spend more than 70 nights away.

Tldr^ I finally made a really good decision and kept my family safe by
1. Leaving my horrific dangerous job
2. Getting my brother and mother all together so we can all shelter in place

My mom is a Christian Scientist so this took some real emotional blackmail, idgaf

I know this all must have been very difficult, but I want you to know that you are a badass for being able to get that done and take care of your family like that right now. It sounds like you are really making the hard choices for people that need it, and that deserves respect imho. I'll stop sucking your dick now.

Deus Ex Macklemore
Jul 2, 2004


Zelensky's Zealots
Jesus this thread moves fast so I am sorry if this has been covered by smarter people but I still wanted to share it. I know a lawyer and was bitching to her about the Supreme Court's decision to let the primary vote go on. She told me that this sets precedent for November if there is a movement to hold the elections off.

We were both pretty sure that the President could do some kind of military martial law thing as a last resort, but that LEGALLY speaking this could be a thing.

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


COVID has killed the XFL.
https://twitter.com/KonnorFulk_XFL/status/1248645458798526465

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018

Spinz posted:

Update on my situation: My developmentally disabled brother with multiple comorbidities that I forced my 70 yr old mother to pull out of his group home and stay with us (I'm with her now) does NOT have to go back to the group home, they are waiving the state requirements that he not spend more than 70 nights away.

Tldr^ I finally made a really good decision and kept my family safe by
1. Leaving my horrific dangerous job
2. Getting my brother and mother all together so we can all shelter in place

My mom is a Christian Scientist so this took some real emotional blackmail, idgaf

That’s great!

The Modern Leper
Dec 25, 2008

You must be a masochist

Flyinglemur posted:

Jesus this thread moves fast so I am sorry if this has been covered by smarter people but I still wanted to share it. I know a lawyer and was bitching to her about the Supreme Court's decision to let the primary vote go on. She told me that this sets precedent for November if there is a movement to hold the elections off.

We were both pretty sure that the President could do some kind of military martial law thing as a last resort, but that LEGALLY speaking this could be a thing.


That feels off, since the US Supreme Court didn't weigh in on delaying the vote (that was the State Supreme Court). The US Supreme Court only ruled on extending the deadline for absentee voting, which is more a question of accommodation than delaying. The State Supreme Court may have been trying to avoid a precedent on "extreme circumstances," but a reasonable decision by the Fed Court would only have further preserved democracy.

EDIT: Built in quote; thread moves fast.

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion

Fallen Rib

Gianthogweed posted:

I can only go by past/present tense because I can't predict the future. But past trends usually (but not always) do tend to be a good indication of future trends. Do you honestly think low density population areas like the countryside will have nearly as many deaths per square mile than high density population areas like NYC in the long term?
deaths per square mile is a bad metric, deaths per 100k is the right thing to look at....and Bumfuck Idaho probably won't get hit as hard per capita as NYC by this once-in-a-lifetime (hopefully) pandemic, but rural areas suffer higher death rates from 'traditional' killers like heart disease and cancer.

Urban/rural is the wrong delineation, it's wealthy vs poor, just like everything else

dudeness
Mar 5, 2010

:minnie: Cat Army :minnie:
Fallen Rib

I'm normally anti bailout but the american people need this.

Deus Ex Macklemore
Jul 2, 2004


Zelensky's Zealots

The Modern Leper posted:

That feels off, since the US Supreme Court didn't weigh in on delaying the vote (that was the State Supreme Court). The US Supreme Court only ruled on extending the deadline for absentee voting, which is more a question of accommodation than delaying. The State Supreme Court may have been trying to avoid a precedent on "extreme circumstances," but a reasonable decision by the Fed Court would only have further preserved democracy.

EDIT: Built in quote; thread moves fast.

To be faaaaaaaaaaaair, she is not practice Constitutional Law so like I said, this may or may not have merit.

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015


oh no one of my faves

The Modern Leper
Dec 25, 2008

You must be a masochist

Flyinglemur posted:

To be faaaaaaaaaaaair, she is not practice Constitutional Law so like I said, this may or may not have merit.

Yeah... I mean, you don't have to study Constitutional Law to know that a 5-4 decision involving Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, et al. is probably not about preserving democracy.

EDIT: The State Supreme Court decision was also along ideological lines, so :shrug:

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

The quantity of bodies definitely isn't normal.

Late but other thread says it's running at about 7x normal rate

Xibanya
Sep 17, 2012




Clever Betty

Rectal Death Adept posted:

Actually this is exactly what is happening to me.

I guess keep us updated since you are a couple days ahead of me.

The other morbidly interesting thing about it is that my getting it is proof of how contagious this poo poo is. I work from home, don't have contact with other people. I was holed up in my apartment long before most people were self-quarantining (I've been lurking this thread from the start, so probably around the time most people ITT started staying in) but I ran out of provisions so I went to the local grocery store on the 28th of March. I didn't wear a mask, but I was super careful to not touch my face, was in and out quickly, hand sanitizer as soon as I got back in my car, washed my hands when I got back home, changed clothes, isolated the nonperishibles. Lo and behold 11 days later I come down with (probably) Roni. I live in the zip code in Austin with the greatest number of confirmed cases (lucky me :shepface: ) probably walked thru an invisible virus laden aerosol plume at the grocery store.

I've heard a theory that the severity of the infection may be related to level of exposure to virus, hence why HCW seem to get it really bad, and some people not bad at all. That theory would hold for explaining why I've got a comparatively mild case (it sucks but aside from a day of having trouble sucking in enough air it's less bad than having bronchitis due to lack of sore throat and runny nose.) 'Course I'm not yet a week into this thing. There's plenty of time for things to take a turn for the worse! And in fact what's loving with me mentally is like 3 times now I've thought it's gone away completely, only to come back, sometimes worse, a few hours later.

Famethrowa
Oct 5, 2012


xfl being the most cursed league is hilarious

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Xibanya posted:

And in fact what's loving with me mentally is like 3 times now I've thought it's gone away completely, only to come back, sometimes worse, a few hours later.

That's another thing people keep mentioning.

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread

Xibanya posted:

The other morbidly interesting thing about it is that my getting it is proof of how contagious this poo poo is. I work from home, don't have contact with other people. I was holed up in my apartment long before most people were self-quarantining (I've been lurking this thread from the start, so probably around the time most people ITT started staying in) but I ran out of provisions so I went to the local grocery store on the 28th of March. I didn't wear a mask, but I was super careful to not touch my face, was in and out quickly, hand sanitizer as soon as I got back in my car, washed my hands when I got back home, changed clothes, isolated the nonperishibles. Lo and behold 11 days later I come down with (probably) Roni. I live in the zip code in Austin with the greatest number of confirmed cases (lucky me :shepface: ) probably walked thru an invisible virus laden aerosol plume at the grocery store.

I've heard a theory that the severity of the infection may be related to level of exposure to virus, hence why HCW seem to get it really bad, and some people not bad at all. That theory would hold for explaining why I've got a comparatively mild case (it sucks but aside from a day of having trouble sucking in enough air it's less bad than having bronchitis due to lack of sore throat and runny nose.) 'Course I'm not yet a week into this thing. There's plenty of time for things to take a turn for the worse! And in fact what's loving with me mentally is like 3 times now I've thought it's gone away completely, only to come back, sometimes worse, a few hours later.

Whoa.
This is quite sobering if you think you do have the roni which I do. Thank you for this post. Screenshotting to read to my mother the next time she asks to go to a grocery store. Stay well, well minor symptoms you know what I mean. (I agree with you on the viral load thing, I mean it seems possible it affects course at least.)

Sirotan
Oct 17, 2006

Sirotan is a seal.


I dunno if you're reading this thread 50s girl groupon, and saying this is probably cliche and dumb, but I am sending good thoughts your way. :unsmith:

EngineerJoe
Aug 8, 2004
-=whore=-



This is the 2nd time Trump has killed the XFL

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Xibanya posted:

I've heard a theory that the severity of the infection may be related to level of exposure to virus, hence why HCW seem to get it really bad, and some people not bad at all.

I was wondering about exactly this yesterday because I know absolutely nothing about it and found an article saying that for most stuff (flu, SARS, MERS, etc) if you're infected with higher doses of the virus you do get worse symptoms but it actually might seem to not be the case with Covid19 though of course no one knows for sure at this point:

quote:

health workers investigating the covid-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region of Italy looked at more than 5,000 infected people and found no difference in viral load between those with symptoms and those without. They reached this conclusion after tracing people who had been in contact with someone known to be infected with the coronavirus and testing them to see if they were also infected.

Similarly, when doctors at the Guangzhou Eighth People’s Hospital in China took repeated throat swabs from 94 covid-19 patients, starting on the day they became ill and finishing when they cleared the virus, they found no obvious difference in viral load between milder cases and those who developed more severe symptoms.

However, a study of patients hospitalised with covid-19 in Nanchang, China, found a strong association between disease severity and the amount of virus present in the nose. “Those with more severe disease had a higher level of virus replication, although we have no evidence to relay the initial exposure dose to disease outcome,” says Leo Poon at Hong Kong University, who was involved in the study. “That rumour is still an open question to me.”

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

But so far that's the only article I've read.

It seems like if worse dose = worse symptoms for other stuff it's likely to also be true for Corvid19 but...

Bleusilences
Jun 23, 2004

Be careful for what you wish for.

Something that I was wondering is also that we heard that the people who gets it again get worst, so maybe people keep getting the roni and each time it get infected it get worst and worst?

Xibanya
Sep 17, 2012




Clever Betty

Spinz posted:

Whoa.
This is quite sobering if you think you do have the roni which I do. Thank you for this post. Screenshotting to read to my mother the next time she asks to go to a grocery store. Stay well, well minor symptoms you know what I mean. (I agree with you on the viral load thing, I mean it seems possible it affects course at least.)

if my tale of mild woe prevents someone's mom from gettin this, then it was all worth it :unsmith:

my other eerie thought is: aside from the breathing trouble I had (which seems to be over now) this is way more bearable than a regular cold due to lack of sniffles. I've been working almost the entire time. Now, I work from home, so there's no harm in that, but if I had this back when I worked in an office (and I wasn't aware of a deadly global pandemic), I would 100% go to work in this condition.

e:

quote:

Something that I was wondering is also that we heard that the people who gets it again get worst, so maybe people keep getting the roni and each time it get infected it get worst and worst?

I thought it hadn't been confirmed yet that you could catch it twice? The theory was that people who were thought to have caught it twice actually had one of this fucker's brainfuck false recovery periods?

I'm now way more invested in this than I was two weeks ago because I'd like to think once I shake this thing I'm out of danger. :stonklol:

Xibanya fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Apr 10, 2020

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Bleusilences
Jun 23, 2004

Be careful for what you wish for.

Another pet speculation is exactly what the other poster said and why I was freaking out about pollen the other day. What if the way it get worst is someone caught it by touching surfaces, they they start spreading it by talking and sneezing around other people and it go into the airway directly(throat and lungs for example) and that how the worst cases gets it?

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