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Inner Light posted:Just empty quoting to see who's holding? I'm mostly in cash but I have a small amount in TQQQ that I'll hold until sentiment reverses.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:14
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today's candle hour was disappointing
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Apr 14, 2020 21:14
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American CNBC anchor refers to joint vaccine venture between GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi as American ingenuity. British co-anchor subtly corrects her later by pointing out they're British and French firms. 
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Apr 14, 2020 21:17
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saintonan posted:I'm mostly in cash but I have a small amount in TQQQ that I'll hold until sentiment reverses. How long do you plan on holding that? Since it decays etc.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:21
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J&J and P&G increased their dividends today 
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Apr 14, 2020 21:23
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Josh Lyman posted:American CNBC anchor refers to joint vaccine venture between GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi as American ingenuity. neither country would be what it is today had the US not entered world war 2 therefore:
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Apr 14, 2020 21:29
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VelociBacon posted:How long do you plan on holding that? Since it decays etc. I usually sell Fridays and rebuy Mondays if sentiment looks similar. Last week I sold midday-ish Thursday and bought at open yesterday. Unrelated: https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1250160122808205316
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Apr 14, 2020 21:34
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LLCoolJD posted:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/imf-global-economy-to-contract-by-3percent-due-to-coronavirus.html It’s already been priced in
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Apr 14, 2020 21:37
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saintonan posted:I usually sell Fridays and rebuy Mondays if sentiment looks similar. Last week I sold midday-ish Thursday and bought at open yesterday. Airlines already up 5%
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Apr 14, 2020 21:46
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Done with the day traded for a bit was fun, but now it's full on buying time, not trading. Get the boring important poo poo the attention it needs. TQQQ, CCL to start with, probably will just buy tqqq until it's over 100 again, though might look for some dividends. Thanks to Dwight for the dividend gambling fund idea, really like that idea as a fun fund control.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:47
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Done with the day traded for a bit was fun, but now it's full on buying time, not trading. Get the boring important poo poo the attention it needs. TQQQ, CCL to start with, probably will just buy tqqq until it's over 100 again, though might look for some dividends. In my mind TQQQ is very much still day trading, since it's not intended for holding. I have no opinion on CCL 
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Apr 14, 2020 21:50
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lurksion posted:The firm my dad work (basically industrial process consulting) has somewhere on the order of 50K on the books for next month. They should be expecting 1 million in normal times. I was listening to a webinar with some guy from Black Rock who was saying that price/earnings ratios will have hardly dropped once the current falls in profits have been taken into account. Equities were horribly overvalued prior to this, now they’re still going to be horribly overvalued, just based on reduced earnings.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:51
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LULU is probably the one stock I really want to add as a long term hold but I'd like a better entry point.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:58
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gay picnic defence posted:I was listening to a webinar with some guy from Black Rock who was saying that price/earnings ratios will have hardly dropped once the current falls in profits have been taken into account. Equities were horribly overvalued prior to this, now they’re still going to be horribly overvalued, just based on reduced earnings.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:00
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GramCracker posted:Airlines already up 5% https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1250165586446807041 There's the list of participating airlines.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:00
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Done with the day traded for a bit was fun, but now it's full on buying time, not trading. Get the boring important poo poo the attention it needs. TQQQ, CCL to start with, probably will just buy tqqq until it's over 100 again, though might look for some dividends. It's kinda broke brained. If you gamble your dividend cash, then you're lighting your portfolio's ability to compound on fire... UNLESS you then take some substantial portion of your gambling winnings and then reinvest it in something you'll hold long term. If you have a negative ev on your gambling then you're sapping some of your dividends' ability to grow your portfolio in order to have the fun of gambling. If you're positive ev then you are amplifying the ability of your dividends to compound. So, let's talk about covid testing and the 'testing bandwidth is saturated and that's why exponential growth isn't in CDC numbers' theory. I think this theory is garbage. MOST tests come back negative. This is as true in South Korea as it is in the U.S. There are multiple reported rates of U.S. negative, but they range from 75-90% of tests coming back negative. IF we are constrained by our testing bandwidth, and IF 75% of tests executed come back negative, and IF we are experiencing exponential growth anyways, then a higher portion of the tests should start coming back positive and we should be able to see it. "we can't test enough" is far more compelling with 100% of tests coming back positive than with 25% coming back positive. The ways that you get numbers showing the growth rate dropping with a 75% negative test result rate are: - The growth rate drops. - You consistently sample the population of people without it at the expense of people with it, with the tests you have, while that population of people without covid is shrinking as a portion of the population. - Astronomically improbable random selection resulting in 2 above without nefarious intent. Yesterday there were 391310 confirmed cases that didn't exist 15 days ago. Today there are 392904 confirmed cases that didn't exist 14 days ago. These aren't a measure of 'active infections', but they're a decent proxy, and that proxy went up 1594 nationwide today. It went up 6510 yesterday. It's possible that the combination of a late but existent response, and U.S. population density means we're at peak infection in the next few days, or today, and the 'active infections' will go down. People who don't die do recover. If active infections ARE going down, then in two weeks it's reasonable to start opening up again. That doesn't mean throw open the flood gates, but it does mean we can start to get things running again. And that's cause for cautious optimism.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:06
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What is the dividend gambling fund idea, I don't see anything from Dwight about that. Long on BND or VYM?
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Apr 14, 2020 22:10
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Femtosecond posted:Rally based I guess on declining hospitalizations in NYC and vague chatter about "reopening the economy." Meanwhile on main street... This exact thing happened to my favourite bar in my town today.  Sepist posted:Didn't get much of a chance to trade today between conference calls and the baby. I feel like I'm experiencing some kind of financial dissonance that ending the day +$500 feels like I still lost somehow. I wish I could produce $500 days consistently. Maybe I wouldn't be so panicked about being laid off. Reading this thread daily trying to learn how to see how.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:12
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Inner Light posted:What is the dividend gambling fund idea, I don't see anything from Dwight about that. Long on BND or VYM? Own dividend paying stonks/funds. When they pay you a dividend you get to gamble with it. When you go bust you don't gamble until your next dividend. When you win big you shove it in stonks.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:12
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Sepist posted:Didn't get much of a chance to trade today between conference calls and the baby. I feel like I'm experiencing some kind of financial dissonance that ending the day +$500 feels like I still lost somehow. Ending the day ahead is winning, friend (I am not going to be winning on Friday)
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Apr 14, 2020 22:12
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I am going to sell out of my long positions by EOW. I’m up between 5-30% on my March selections. Switching to selling covered puts/calls or iron condors on earnings and enjoying the theta collapse. I’m too traumatized to buy puts right now but, if we hit 300+, it will take every fiber of my being to not dump my entire portfolio in leap puts.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:13
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Own dividend paying stonks/funds. When they pay you a dividend you get to gamble with it. When you go bust you don't gamble until your next dividend. When you win big you shove it in stonks. Might be my limited knowledge, but I haven't found dividend yields for stocks to be worth the risk of holding the underlying. For example VYM has a yield of ~3%. Using TDAM's income calculator, holding $30k in VYM gives ~$1k per year in dividends distributed quarterly. Blah.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:18
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:It's kinda broke brained. If you gamble your dividend cash, then you're lighting your portfolio's ability to compound on fire... UNLESS you then take some substantial portion of your gambling winnings and then reinvest it in something you'll hold long term. If you have a negative ev on your gambling then you're sapping some of your dividends' ability to grow your portfolio in order to have the fun of gambling. If you're positive ev then you are amplifying the ability of your dividends to compound. The trouble is those official numbers might only represent 5-10% of the actual infected population. A study looking at a bunch of pregnant women coming into a particular hospital found that 15% of them had covid, it’s not a perfect assumption but it’s not unreasonable either to assume from that that as much as 15% of the NY population has it. As long as new cases are being identified it’s fairly safe to assume there’s still a bit of community spread going on undetected so you still have a large reservoir of carriers out there, some of whom can be contagious up to a month after getting infected. The percentage of people who are contagious for this long is low but it only takes one contagious person to restart the party. If you reopen the economy while there are still active cases they’ll eventually start spreading it again and you end up with a second wave, a president who can’t lock everything down again for fear of losing face, and a population who doesn’t really give a gently caress any more.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:20
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In this market a dividend stock could gain or lose 10% in a day. If it rises by that amount, I don't know why you wouldn't sell it, and then buy it again once it crashes in like two weeks.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:21
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Man I don't know what the gently caress to do. I'm almost entirely in cash right now with zero ideas because I trust nothing right now. My gut says this feels like people trying to create liquidity to empty out big gains from the March lows. There's basically no news other than the POTENTIAL slowdown of the virus and POTENTIAL flattening of the curve that is positive. And I guess that's all that's needed since we've been locked down and oversaturated with negative news for so long? I'm eyeing longer term puts but I hate the premiums, bigly. So alas, I wring my hands, get my order ready, my finger hovers over the left mouse button...and I instead open a new tab and watch funny gifs/memes because I have zero convictions that I even have a clue where were headed.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:27
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Own dividend paying stonks/funds. When they pay you a dividend you get to gamble with it. When you go bust you don't gamble until your next dividend. When you win big you shove it in stonks. The losses from compound are bad and it isn't the absolute most efficient agreed, but it seems like a good fit for my risk appetite (nigh unlimited). There's a freakanomics episode with a recent Nobel econ winner who did something similar with his prize money.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:28
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gay picnic defence posted:I was listening to a webinar with some guy from Black Rock who was saying that price/earnings ratios will have hardly dropped once the current falls in profits have been taken into account. Equities were horribly overvalued prior to this, now they’re still going to be horribly overvalued, just based on reduced earnings. S&P 500 sales per share hit a high in 2Q 2008 at $278.50 with EPS $15.44 and bottomed at $221.80 1Q 2009 with EPS of $7.52 (eps bottom was the previous quarter at -23). Currently $355 with EPS of $35. I’m still figuring out what my point is but I think people are being pretty sanguine about the EPS hit coming up (30% decline in GDP hits the top line and there are a lot of fixed costs). I don’t think it’s even being crazy pessimistic to think the lockdowns come off on schedule in May and social distancing continues and maybe a few more lockdowns later in the year and 2020 EPS is in the $60s. Which leaves an awful lot of downside. Might already be priced in though.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:31
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:The losses from compound are bad and it isn't the absolute most efficient agreed, but it seems like a good fit for my risk appetite (nigh unlimited). The way that it works is that you get exposure to big wins with less risk of getting wiped out. The way that it doesn't work is you don't learn anything from your repeated gambling sessions and so you fritter away your dividends forever without improving what decisions you are making to get to positive ev.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:41
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I think the thing is that there's nothing else to buy.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:41
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:The losses from compound are bad and it isn't the absolute most efficient agreed, but it seems like a good fit for my risk appetite (nigh unlimited).
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Apr 14, 2020 22:43
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So is the govt getting equity out of those shitheel airlines? Where’s the deets
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Apr 14, 2020 23:15
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pmchem posted:So is the govt getting equity out of those shitheel airlines? Where’s the deets
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Apr 14, 2020 23:27
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 Oh boy. What's everyone's fav thing to do with these, scalp /ES? /ES options?
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Apr 14, 2020 23:34
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poisonpill posted:In this market a dividend stock could gain or lose 10% in a day. If it rises by that amount, I don't know why you wouldn't sell it, and then buy it again once it crashes in like two weeks. I told myself I'd buy CVX for that sweet dividend if it got to its 2009 low of a little below 60, then I spaced out and missed it hit ~$54 three weeks ago, now it's back up to $84
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Apr 14, 2020 23:37
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Inner Light posted:
/ES options are 50 contract per option (as opposed to 100 shares per option for equity options) and only require the option buying power of the premium.
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Apr 14, 2020 23:54
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I asked a question in this thread, and the conversation in the Long Term Investing thread turned to the same subject, so had some conversation there. Thanks to Leperflesh for the effortposts explaining the basics of the topic I was questioning. Here is where the conversation began relating to my question. Here below is my post in response. Looking for the thread's traders' insight on setting up the mechanics of this kind of thing. mr.belowaverage posted:The detail of a stop limit versus a limit order is that you have two triggers. This ties in to the strategy of showing or not showing your order to the market at large.
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Apr 14, 2020 23:57
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Josh Lyman posted:/ES requires option buying power of $13,200 for 1 contract. Minimum tick size is 0.25 and each contract is 50x leverage, so a 1 point move in /ES means you gain or lose $50. Is buying 1 'share' of /ES in ToS (I guess it is 1 contract) still considered an option in terms of BP? Looks like I currently can't buy a contract because my option BP is under that amount, since most of my portfolio is in equities or a recent uncleared deposit. Also what's your most common strategy with /ES, if there is one  Do we have a discord? I know discords are a fad but I feel bad crapping up the thread often with my basic questions, let me know if there's an opinion on creating one. Inner Light fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 23:57
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Inner Light posted:Is buying 1 'share' of /ES in ToS (I guess it is 1 contract) still considered an option in terms of BP? Looks like I currently can't buy a contract because my option BP is under that amount, since most of my portfolio is in equities or a recent uncleared deposit. Also what's your most common strategy with /ES, if there is one Strategy-wise, don't listen to me because I've consistently lost money trying to trade futures. Sepist seems to do well and he primarily swing trades /ES options.
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Apr 15, 2020 00:03
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saintonan posted:https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1250165586446807041 They are now up ~12% Wish I got in on this action. Oh well.
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Apr 15, 2020 00:13
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Josh Lyman posted:Speaking as a former finance academic, the group as a whole is pretty conservative when it comes to investing. Actively managed mutual funds have been shown time and again to underperform the market after fees, so other than a handful of stocks you might buy because you personally like them, everything is going into index funds (which I would say includes dividend funds). conservative fits my experiences as well. Mortgage banking is where I fell in love with hilariously big risks. Theory question to build off funds. Actively managed funds make less, makes sense in aggregate because there's more costs to the fund. Dividend paying stocks should also suffer a little compared to other stocks for the same reason, at least in theory, right? I know dividend stocks do underperform in general by most metrics.
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Apr 15, 2020 00:21
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