|
GramCracker posted:They are now up ~12% Was it known that they were in talks for a deal like this?
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 17:06 |
|
|
enraged_camel posted:Was it known that they were in talks for a deal like this? We knew when the stimulus bill passed that there was money earmarked for the big airlines. The news is that the terms of the bailout are extremely generous - 70% are grants, the other 30% are low interest loans, and no equity in return.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:27
|
|
|
So why wasn't this already ~priced in~ ?
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:33
|
|
|
pixaal posted:So why wasn't this already ~priced in~ ? Well, you see, things are "priced in" when you want them to be, because the market is "forward-looking". However, when things don't go the way you want, the market is "irrational".
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:37
|
|
|
saintonan posted:We knew when the stimulus bill passed that there was money earmarked for the big airlines. The news is that the terms of the bailout are extremely generous - 70% are grants, the other 30% are low interest loans, and no equity in return. That’s not true, the Fed’s get warrants equivalent to 10% of the loan amount over $100 million I believe.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:37
|
|
|
pixaal posted:So why wasn't this already ~priced in~ ? Because the bill just said the assistance would be on terms the Secretary “deems appropriate.” The terms are drastically more favorable than the airlines deserve.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:38
|
|
|
tumblr hype man posted:That’s not true, the Fed’s get warrants equivalent to 10% of the loan amount over $100 million I believe. yeah I dunno the details or how it might affect stock price, but some info here (see replies in twitter thread for the info): https://twitter.com/Barton_options/status/1250193153136656385
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:44
|
|
|
lmao at no layoffs until the election
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:54
|
|
|
the election is in november, friend
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 00:56
|
|
|
these graphics provide a nice overview of fed actions so far: https://twitter.com/MacroTechnicals/status/1249304939408564225?s=20 https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1250168557608087552?s=20 that's ~$7,300,000,000,000.00 in fed actions ongoing, or 216,578,651 x the median income in the USA (via https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA646N ). Yes, if you took a random person in the US who has an income, odds are that the fed's actions are ~217 million times his income. There are, of course, only ~330m people in the US. And the Fed isn't done yet. That money isn't going back in the bottle if governors open places up next month. This is all astounding. SPY 7/17 310C  bonus tweet: https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1250217382867619841?s=20 pmchem fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Apr 15, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 01:28
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:the election is in november, friend For now
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 01:35
|
|
|
pmchem posted:yeah I dunno the details or how it might affect stock price, but some info here (see replies in twitter thread for the info): I really think that this quarter's earnings is basically the purge. Companies can bury all sorts of insane poo poo right now and nobody would blink an eye because ~chaos~. Number go up because the government will bail everyone out. Q2 earnings are going to be atrocious, but expectations are going to be miserable, so still priced in. When we start getting past Q2 and closer to Q3, folks are going to realize we aren't just bouncing back. That late Aug-Oct timeline is going to look pretty loving ugly imo. A few colleges are already saying they may not even re-open in the fall. But I guess 5/1 SPY $300 calls in the meantime.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 01:41
|
|
|
pmchem posted:that's ~$7,300,000,000,000.00 in fed actions ongoing, or 216,578,651 x the median income in the USA (via https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA646N ). A better perspective on that amount of money is that the Fed could just gently caress off and cut every taxpayer a check for $50k and probably still have enough left over to buy an airline.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 01:59
|
|
|
FreelanceSocialist posted:A better perspective on that amount of money is that the Fed could just gently caress off and cut every taxpayer a check for $50k and probably still have enough left over to buy an airline. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 02:04
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:So, let's talk about covid testing and the 'testing bandwidth is saturated and that's why exponential growth isn't in CDC numbers' theory. I think this theory is garbage. Not addressing the theory you mention, since it's quite possible the US has peaked, but the testing part of this is very sloppy. You will never get anywhere near 100% of tests coming back positive, for obvious reasons, and there is is so much data out there that this is easy to check. Look at "Number of tests per confirmed case" and you can see that the US is down amongst the worst-tested countries in all the historical data, at roughly 20% of tests being positive. They could only really do worse than that on purpose. Countries doing serious testing are down around 2%.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 02:46
|
|
|
jawbroken posted:Not addressing the theory you mention, since it's quite possible the US has peaked, but the testing part of this is very sloppy. You will never get anywhere near 100% of tests coming back positive, for obvious reasons, and there is is so much data out there that this is easy to check. Look at "Number of tests per confirmed case" and you can see that the US is down amongst the worst-tested countries in all the historical data, at roughly 20% of tests being positive. They could only really do worse than that on purpose. Countries doing serious testing are down around 2%. Yah, I don't see how we lift quarantine with that percentage of tests still positive and not have a big 2nd wave.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 02:49
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1250240869216563200 I think it was fougera who recommended this twitter follow? 
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 02:59
|
|
|
So do you guys think the Fed might be authorized to buy equities soon, if things continue going badly?
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 02:59
|
|
|
enraged_camel posted:if things continue going badly? 
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:04
|
|
|
pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1250240869216563200 The better question is are you long the Dong?
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:27
|
|
|
Going back a few posts to Dwight's theory, it looks like COVID testing positivity rate is going up. Or, tests per positive is going down. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-covid-19-tests-per-confirmed-case?time=2020-02-28..&country=USA Mar 24 - 7.6 Tests per positive in the US Apr 1 - 6.2 Apr 13 - 5.3
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:29
|
|
Baddog posted:Yah, I don't see how we lift quarantine with that percentage of tests still positive and not have a big 2nd wave. With DJI rising to 30k. JPM, WFC earnings tomorrow, I assume earnings are gonna hit harder than unemp.
|
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:43
|
|
|
WithoutTheFezOn posted:Going back a few posts to Dwight's theory, it looks like COVID testing positivity rate is going up. Or, tests per positive is going down. Looks like that site is getting its US data from the COVID Tracking Project which is an all volunteer effort to consolidate the testing data from states that the CDC is not collating and releasing. You can dig into the data yourself here, as well as their very upfront descriptions of its limitations. https://covidtracking.com/
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:46
|
|
|
Can I opt out and get J-Pow instead? I don't care if it delays it longer: https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Coming-to-your-1-200-relief-check-Donald-J-15201100.php The Hour posted:The Treasury Department has ordered President Donald Trump's name be printed on stimulus checks the Internal Revenue Service is rushing to send to tens of millions of Americans, a process that is expected to slow their delivery by several days, senior agency officials said. It's like it's from him directly! What a generous guy!!!!!  Blessed be, Donaldinho Pumperhino. TheKevman fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Apr 15, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 03:46
|
|
|
Tell me why I shouldn’t put 10 grand into oil ETFs and just wait for the price to double.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 04:39
|
|
|
It’s a bad idea to try to grab a put on VMBS right?
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 05:27
|
|
|
WithoutTheFezOn posted:Going back a few posts to Dwight's theory, it looks like COVID testing positivity rate is going up. Or, tests per positive is going down. I'd be curious if this kind of data is adjusted for tests on the same person. I work in a (Canadian) hospital, we test people by default 2-3 times before declaring them negative and if they begin to show a change in respiratory condition we frequently retest them a few times.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 05:32
|
|
|
LibCrusher posted:Tell me why I shouldn’t put 10 grand into oil ETFs and just wait for the price to double. At the moment you can't just buy oil and wait. It costs you money to wait.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:15
|
|
|
LibCrusher posted:Tell me why I shouldn’t put 10 grand into oil ETFs and just wait for the price to double. So I have basically two reasons to give here. The first is rebalancing. This means the ETF's change precisely which assets they are using to trade options and as far as I know most/all of them do this daily. Traditionally this plus the fee associated with the ETF (a quick google is showing me between .08% and .47% with the notable exception of USO at .76%) are the reasons why these funds tend to represent a poor device for tracking the underlying value of the asset over the long term. That said as far as fees go that seems semi-reasonable and given the kind of increase you are expecting this wouldn't necessarily be a huge impediment. The other biggest reason I can give is that I'm personally expecting we have much further to fall economically for both general market indexes but also specifically the price of oil futures. My understanding is that we currently have an excess of 25 million barrels per day being produced and that OPEC has agreed to cut 9.7 million, two days ago Trump said that he was expecting that the cuts might go as high as 20 million barrels per day but frankly he has been pumping the price of oil all week and in my view the proper terminology for his assessment is best described as 'bullshit'. Looking at what we can factually expect as per OPEC cuts based on their statements on the matter I'd expect us to still be looking at a glut of 15.3 million barrels per day and even though there is currently interest in obtaining and storing these barrels long term in the united states at several storage sites there is a hard limit to how many we are equipped to take on short notice and I see no reason not to expect the price to fall further. With that in mind you will need to make a decision about precisely how long you expect to be holding these ETF's and how you expect the supply to impact prices. If you think we don't have much further to fall or if you are going to be satisfied with gains that may not reflect a larger percentage of the overall movement of the ETF, by all means go ahead and make your investment. On the other hand I've seen at least a few different analysts predicting that we can expect more of an economic decline with at least one quoted in this very thread suggesting the bottom could likely be sometime in June if our current model matches prior recession trajectories. Waiting at least a few weeks here could be a huge mistake if a miraculous turnaround happens but it could also be very lucrative. More on how I might handle this in your position later. My own crystal ball predictions are that I expect the economy to continue rallying as Trump makes good on his promise to pressure the state governors to re-open their businesses by rescinding their stay at home orders. In the past I have found that any time Trump has attempted to do something he was absolutely not legally entitled to do he has succeeded and I see no real reason to bet against this trend, I hold short positions on various ETF's but I'm strapping in with the understanding that it may be at least two more weeks before we actually start seeing the economy sputter out and around this time I expect confidence in the stock market will again falter and that indexes and many futures will resume dropping. I'm not an expert and have not been doing this for nearly long enough to suggest how best to invest ten grand but one thing I would be heavily considering in your position would be an investment now into an oil ETF of about two thousand dollars with the understanding that if in the course of the next few weeks/next month the price continues to drop my remaining eight thousand could be employed to average down and that would allow me to capture more of the movement that I am currently expecting. On the other hand the most lucrative play should such a drop occur would almost certainly be to deploy the entire sum as near to the expected bottom as possible. The primary reason I might opt for the former strategy rather than the latter is that even though I would be getting approximately one fifth of my possible gains should my analysis be incorrect and should oil proceed to rally, I would still be profiting and ultimately the insurance that should my assessment hold true and a proper bottom has yet to show itself on the markets would be very valuable to me for the possibility that I might capture a greater portion of the market movement than I might have otherwise captured had I acted tomorrow morning. In my view, especially regarding a commodity with as many diverse utilities as oil which our society has very few realistic options for replacing as an energy source in the medium term and to my knowledge could not be replaced under any circumstances as a component in plastic production, this would allow me to create a situation where I would profit from a surprise movement up and also profit over a longer timeframe should the price move down. This is generally the kind of investment I like to make when I can. Now you might want to adjust the proportion of money invested now to whatever best suits your outlook, I tend to have a very conservative view on placing money on an uncertain outcome so 1/5th down appeals to me greatly. Hopefully this was worth the time it took to read, thank you for your consideration. reignofevil fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Apr 15, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:17
|
|
|
reignofevil posted:So I have basically two reasons to give here. The first is rebalancing. This means the ETF's change precisely which assets they are using to trade options and as far as I know most/all of them do this daily. Traditionally this plus the fee associated with the ETF (a quick google is showing me between .08% and .47% with the notable exception of USO at .76%) are the reasons why these funds tend to represent a poor device for tracking the underlying value of the asset over the long term. That said as far as fees go that seems semi-reasonable and given the kind of increase you are expecting this wouldn't necessarily be a huge impediment. tldr; buy $CVX and $XOM
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:27
|
|
|
I bought a lot of XOM recently and I think I'm up like 30% on it altogether. Oil stocks should be good to go, in my opinion, though commodity futures is a big ol' "gently caress off" to me for years. Oil is loving nutso to trade on, but it tends to work out just fine for shareholders, so.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:28
|
|
|
Ten grand in exxon mobile right now will pay itself back in dividends over a period of 12.3 years definitely worth considering even not taking reinvestment into account.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:44
|
|
|
Assuming they dont cut the dividend, which theyve been straining to fund before pandemic oil wars set in
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 06:47
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Assuming they dont cut the dividend, which theyve been straining to fund before pandemic oil wars set in
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 08:29
|
|
|
Thanks for the extremely well reasoned and written responses. I’ve decided to split the 10k into a few different oil ETFs and hold out hope that a single minor terrorist attack or natural disaster or moron president will spike the price of oil in the next 6 months.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 08:46
|
|
|
LibCrusher posted:Thanks for the extremely well reasoned and written responses. I’ve decided to split the 10k into a few different oil ETFs and hold out hope that a single minor terrorist attack or natural disaster or moron president will spike the price of oil in the next 6 months. Aren't UCO/SCO about to reverse split soon?
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 08:58
|
|
|
GOOD MORNING! SPY retraced all of yesterday's gains in the first 2 hours of european trading with no obvious reason, guessing the earnings reports are leaking out and they're not good
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 10:00
|
|
|
Doccykins posted:GOOD MORNING! SPY retraced all of yesterday's gains in the first 2 hours of european trading with no obvious reason, guessing the earnings reports are leaking out and they're not good
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 10:24
|
|
|
yeah I'm not jumping back in Oil-stocks and USO yet.... let's see OIL 15 first baby 
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 13:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 17:06 |
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:The market rally was out of control. We had no business being above 2800 much less at 2850. holding all these mortgage REITs short-swings here salivating waiting for the really big market dump day its coming  
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2020 13:26
|
|