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justcola
May 22, 2004

La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo

Brendan Rodgers posted:

I was actually thinking of that new Jason Momoa show, See, where a virus left 2 million humans alive, all blind, and giving birth to blind children. Great show, only one season so far.

*looks at short story I've been writing*

sounds like a good idea for a show, I'll have a look.

Isomermaid posted:

"He who smelt it, dealt it", if you will

:hfive:


e: What a snipe

1 ounce of pistachios contain 159 calories, so you could eat 15 ounces of pistachios a day and feel great.

justcola fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Apr 16, 2020

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Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Do remember that data taken now is based on actions that happened two weeks ago.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Pablo Bluth posted:

Updated NHS Coronavirus stats



Unless there's still extra lag due to the long weekend, it does feel like we might be at a turning point.

I'm guessing the giant drop at the end is "it's only 2.30 so most of today's deaths haven't happened" rather than "deaths have plummeted"?

Brendan Rodgers
Jun 11, 2014




justcola posted:

*looks at short story I've been writing*

Hey don't stop or be discouraged or anything like that, no story is actually unique.

Aramoro
Jun 1, 2012




Brendan Rodgers posted:

Hey don't stop or be discouraged or anything like that, no story is actually unique.

It can go into the recent 'Can't do things' genre, can't see, can't speak, can't move etc.

Make it so everyone is deaf, don't think that's been done yet.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Qwertycoatl posted:

I'm guessing the giant drop at the end is "it's only 2.30 so most of today's deaths haven't happened" rather than "deaths have plummeted"?
Yes.



Ignore the date on the chart - it's for the 1st April (not 1st May). It takes about three or four days for the majority of the deaths to be counted but up to about ten for something close to definitive. But basically the three right-hand most bars at not anywhere near the actual figure for there corresponding days.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

justcola posted:

*looks at short story I've been writing*

sounds like a good idea for a show, I'll have a look.

The use of language is highly advanced but the visuals are non-existant.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
Yeah, for everyone asking what they can do about all the LabourLeaks stuff, switching unions (and encouraging others to switch their union) seems like a great idea. Giving Unite your money rather than Unison or GMB seems like a really good way to send a message without any seriously horrible consequences.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Pablo Bluth posted:

Updated NHS Coronavirus stats



Unless there's still extra lag due to the long weekend, it does feel like we might be at a turning point.

Spain Italy and France all showed *long* plateaus of death numbers, I'd be very surprised if we were seeing a downturn now unless there's some other factor than social distancing at play.

peanut-
Feb 17, 2004
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/1250778447506481153

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Spain Italy and France all showed *long* plateaus of death numbers, I'd be very surprised if we were seeing a downturn now unless there's some other factor than social distancing at play.

861 deaths today. That's plateau numbers for sure.

Loonytoad Quack
Aug 24, 2004

High on Shatner's Bassoon

Pablo Bluth posted:

Updated NHS Coronavirus stats



Unless there's still extra lag due to the long weekend, it does feel like we might be at a turning point.

Today's number of deaths is 861 which means that first red bar is actually now a much taller blue bar, so don't get too excited yet.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Still, it really does look now like we've plateaued now instead of exponentially increasing. I'll take the good news I can get.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Qwertycoatl posted:

Still, it really does look now like we've plateaued now instead of exponentially increasing. I'll take the good news I can get.

Oh definitely, and with (rumoured) only ~80% bed occupancy (of the admittedly massively expanded capacity) we'll hopefully be able to avoid the big jump in non-CV deaths seen in Italy.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Loonytoad Quack posted:

Today's number of deaths is 861 which means that first red bar is actually now a much taller blue bar, so don't get too excited yet.
That's the reported number, who's deaths are spread over a number of days which makes working out the influence of the bank holiday weekend etc hard to determine. With these NHS England charts, the three right-hand columns should pretty much be ignored. The blue bars are fairly close to the final numbers and the two left red bars need a mental fudge factor applied.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

I'm still really curious if the BCG/lowered symptoms thing really is true, but I'd also rather not find out - ya know, because there's no enough data to draw conclusions RE: the dead.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Spain Italy and France all showed *long* plateaus of death numbers, I'd be very surprised if we were seeing a downturn now unless there's some other factor than social distancing at play.
I suspect most people were expecting some form of bell curve to the death rate but it does seem as if the shape is an exponential increase up to the maximum then only a linear decrease on the way down.

Jaeluni Asjil
Apr 18, 2018

Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!
They're not going to stop.
Anyone else read the pathetic twitter rantings of Hirsh? Can't believe students pay good money to get lectures off him!

https://twitter.com/ProgressOnline/status/1250740867251519489?s=20



re death graphs: until we get figures of deaths in care homes or at home, we can't know if we're still increasing, peaking or what.

thespaceinvader
Mar 30, 2011

The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Tesseraction posted:

I'm still really curious if the BCG/lowered symptoms thing really is true, but I'd also rather not find out - ya know, because there's no enough data to draw conclusions RE: the dead.

I'd be surprised if someone doesn't look into it ex post facto, but I'd also be fairly surprised if it's true given that a priori there's no particular reason to suggest that a vaccination against a bacterial infection should do anything at all against a viral one.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

thespaceinvader posted:

I'd be surprised if someone doesn't look into it ex post facto, but I'd also be fairly surprised if it's true given that a priori there's no particular reason to suggest that a vaccination against a bacterial infection should do anything at all against a viral one.

True, but as we know even small changes to a living system can have massive knock-on effects.

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider






Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Don't most people in the UK between about 30 and 70 have the BCG vaccination?

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Qwertycoatl posted:

Don't most people in the UK between about 30 and 70 have the BCG vaccination?

It became mandatory around 1953 so someone who's 70 now would have been too old for it, you're looking at people younger than 65 or so. Comparatively Italy and the US have never mandated it.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

thespaceinvader posted:

I'd be surprised if someone doesn't look into it ex post facto, but I'd also be fairly surprised if it's true given that a priori there's no particular reason to suggest that a vaccination against a bacterial infection should do anything at all against a viral one.

The (extremely speculative) possible explanation I'd heard was that as antibodies don't really give a poo poo about whether it's a virus, bacteria, or random bit of debris in the system, just that they match up with the particular bit of protein they're keyed to attack, that it's not impossible that antibodies keyed against TB might end up matching another random pathogen. That's winning the lottery while a stroke of lightning destroys a meteorite that was going to kill you levels of luck though, unless somehow CV has grabbed DNA from TB or something (I have no idea if that's even vaguely plausible either).

Oh dear me
Aug 14, 2012

I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

Qwertycoatl posted:

Don't most people in the UK between about 30 and 70 have the BCG vaccination?

It stops working after some years, without boosters.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Tesseraction posted:

It became mandatory around 1953 so someone who's 70 now would have been too old for it, you're looking at people younger than 65 or so. Comparatively Italy and the US have never mandated it.

Wasn't there also something about a particular strain, explaining the apparent difference in death rates between former East and West Germany?

justcola
May 22, 2004

La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

They're not going to stop.
Anyone else read the pathetic twitter rantings of Hirsh? Can't believe students pay good money to get lectures off him!

https://twitter.com/ProgressOnline/status/1250740867251519489?s=20

re death graphs: until we get figures of deaths in care homes or at home, we can't know if we're still increasing, peaking or what.

"The recently leaked... report into the Labour party’s handling of antisemitism aspires to be the founding myth of the left." (???)

What a badly written article. And this man teaches? At a university? In London?

thespaceinvader
Mar 30, 2011

The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The (extremely speculative) possible explanation I'd heard was that as antibodies don't really give a poo poo about whether it's a virus, bacteria, or random bit of debris in the system, just that they match up with the particular bit of protein they're keyed to attack, that it's not impossible that antibodies keyed against TB might end up matching another random pathogen. That's winning the lottery while a stroke of lightning destroys a meteorite that was going to kill you levels of luck though, unless somehow CV has grabbed DNA from TB or something (I have no idea if that's even vaguely plausible either).

It's certainly a p[lausible explanation if there is an impact, but as you say, the odds are startlingly unlikely that there would be. All the same, it's a big world, stranger things have happened.

but season 3 wasn't very good.

Wait what was I saying?

E: hahaha the ice cream van is still coming round my estate apparently.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Tesseraction posted:

It became mandatory around 1953 so someone who's 70 now would have been too old for it, you're looking at people younger than 65 or so. Comparatively Italy and the US have never mandated it.

When I got it I was in highschool. I don't know what age people got it at in 1953 but if they were like 14 they'd be 80 now

e:

Oh dear me posted:

It stops working after some years, without boosters.

Oh well

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

They're not going to stop.
Anyone else read the pathetic twitter rantings of Hirsh? Can't believe students pay good money to get lectures off him!

https://twitter.com/ProgressOnline/status/1250740867251519489?s=20



re death graphs: until we get figures of deaths in care homes or at home, we can't know if we're still increasing, peaking or what.

I saw that this dude's apparently a proper academic and thought he might have written something coherent and thought-provoking that I could engage with, even though I might not agree with his premises.





NOPE.

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

Tesseraction posted:

It became mandatory around 1953 so someone who's 70 now would have been too old for it, you're looking at people younger than 65 or so. Comparatively Italy and the US have never mandated it.

I was confused when I got to university in the UK and everyone had a scar in the same place, especially when they said it was to do with TB.

It looks like we got the Mantoux Test several times during primary school (always a source of great fear and apprehension). I never knew anyone get hauled off because the result was "wrong". But we never got the BCG.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Bobstar posted:

I was confused when I got to university in the UK and everyone had a scar in the same place, especially when they said it was to do with TB.

Sorry, you wandered into a horror movie by mistake

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The (extremely speculative) possible explanation I'd heard was that as antibodies don't really give a poo poo about whether it's a virus, bacteria, or random bit of debris in the system, just that they match up with the particular bit of protein they're keyed to attack, that it's not impossible that antibodies keyed against TB might end up matching another random pathogen. That's winning the lottery while a stroke of lightning destroys a meteorite that was going to kill you levels of luck though, unless somehow CV has grabbed DNA from TB or something (I have no idea if that's even vaguely plausible either).

If there is a correlation, it's probably not going to be antibody-mediated, think it would be more some other kind of non-B-cell immune priming

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler

justcola posted:


What a badly written article. And this man teaches? At a university? In London?

That's a little unfair: for all we know, he had to type all that out in 30 seconds and hit 'send' without any further reflection.

I mean, I'd hate to think that he looked at that article and thought: "Yep, this is good to publish".

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Qwertycoatl posted:

When I got it I was in highschool. I don't know what age people got it at in 1953 but if they were like 14 they'd be 80 now

e:


Oh well

There was a mass vaccination programme of all ages in the 50s*, and after that it was given first year of secondary school (10-11 years old).

* The UK was a bit slow off the mark on it despite it being a massive epidemic. Had they been quicker we probably wouldn't have won the World Cup in 1966 though, because if Malcolm Allison had never caught it he'd have carried on as a not very good centre-half instead of completely revolutionising the coaching system at West Ham, who of course went on to win the World Cup (with some supporting artists).

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

Qwertycoatl posted:

Sorry, you wandered into a horror movie by mistake

This would explain why I didn't learn anything and then dropped out

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Failed Imagineer posted:

If there is a correlation, it's probably not going to be antibody-mediated, think it would be more some other kind of non-B-cell immune priming

Yeah it was someone thinking out loud pretty deep in a Twitter thread, along with some other stuff about the general weird effects of the BCG compared to more modern vaccines. I'll see if I can find it again because it was pretty interesting.

Ballbot5000
Dec 13, 2008

Fabricati diem, pvnc.

Qwertycoatl posted:

Don't most people in the UK between about 30 and 70 have the BCG vaccination?

Yeah, whereas supposedly the older population in China never had it and the areas in Europe with poor uptake were historically the Netherlands and Italy.

Areas with high uptake seem to be doing better and some pretty flawed studies with low numbers (~150) of patients have shown some pretty astonishing (10x infection and death rate) in countries with lower BCG uptake. Those are very early raw numbers but it would be a stroke of luck that a vaccine from years ago has saved our bacon out of nowhere.

It's more of an interesting curiosity piece at the moment that I've been following closely as immunology was nearly a job I went into as it's fascinating and unsurprisingly complex.

With regard to BCG and respiratory virus' we aren't really sure yet. but suspect they may confer some poorly understood benefit.

There are also pretty clearly some strong genetic factors in people doing badly in this thought whether that is something innate with the immune system or regarding familial conditions such as diabetes/hypertension/obesity it ain't clear.

E; whoops didn't update the thread before posting.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-

Failed Imagineer posted:

If there is a correlation, it's probably not going to be antibody-mediated, think it would be more some other kind of non-B-cell immune priming

It's because you already got the government mind control treatment the first time so there's no need to give you coronavirus as well.

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XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

They're not going to stop.
Anyone else read the pathetic twitter rantings of Hirsh? Can't believe students pay good money to get lectures off him!

https://twitter.com/ProgressOnline/status/1250740867251519489?s=20



re death graphs: until we get figures of deaths in care homes or at home, we can't know if we're still increasing, peaking or what.

hmm so it seems as though Corbyn's politics were solely responsible for antisemitism in the Labour party because Corbyn's politics were solely responsible for antisemitism in the Labour party because Corbyn's politics were solely responsible for antisemitism in the Labour party?

seems logical and well evidenced, I'm convinced

also I thought starmer called for unity, this seems like some sort of hard-left sectarian factionalism to me

e: ok he really is a complete hack and/or moron, this is one of the positive reviews for his book from his bio


quote:

‘For more than a decade, David Hirsh has campaigned courageously against the all-too prevalent demonisation of Israel as the one nationalism in the world that must not only be criticised but ruled altogether illegitimate. This intellectual disgrace arouses not only his indignation but his commitment to gather evidence and to reason about it with care. What he asks of his readers is an equal commitment to plumb how it has happened that, in a world full of criminality and massacre, it is obsessed with the fundamental wrongheadedness of one and only national movement: Zionism.’ — Todd Gitlin, Professor of Journalism and Sociology, Columbia University, USA
"Zionism is literally the only form of nationalism that left-wing people criticise or consider illegitimate" - apparently an actual professor

XMNN fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Apr 16, 2020

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