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Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Gazpacho posted:

Just realized why I haven’t been getting much mail, it’s because junk mail has Mostly stopped

That’s probably also why the postal service is headed for disaster

it is!

:sun:

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FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009
AMD is almost at all time highs lol. NUMMMMBBBERRRR

Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt

Spaced God posted:

Modern Americans are too complacent and taught from birth to trust and obey authority no matter what. Riots will never happen in this country no matter how much I want them to

I disagree with this completely.

American culture puts the start of history at 1968 and the end of history at 1978. I have family members (had now) who were involved in militant labor strikes and actions in living memory.

1920 is barely a hundred years ago. Imagine a Frenchman in 1893 talking about how modern France could never have a revolution.

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

oxsnard posted:

A low margin retailer shouldn't be trading at 6x sales like lmao wtf

half of the internet runs on AWS

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

All hail the king of economics.

Homocow
Apr 24, 2007

Extremely bad poster!
DO NOT QUOTE!


Pillbug

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Penisaurus Sex posted:

I disagree with this completely.

American culture puts the start of history at 1968 and the end of history at 1978. I have family members (had now) who were involved in militant labor strikes and actions in living memory.

1920 is barely a hundred years ago. Imagine a Frenchman in 1893 talking about how modern France could never have a revolution.

I think one of the flaws in this particular line of thinking is that it assumes more pain is needed before anything is changed but never tries to think about how much more pain is needed.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
the slums of India don't rebel

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
jobless claims have already hit 17% of the entire american workforce lol, and that's an undercount.

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

anime was right posted:

jobless claims have already hit 17% of the entire american workforce lol, and that's an undercount.

and thats only from COVID! its more realistically 20 even if we're being insanely generous

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







anime was right posted:

jobless claims have already hit 17% of the entire american workforce lol, and that's an undercount.

clearly we must restart the economic system that created such a precarious situation

Complications
Jun 19, 2014


Hmm. So Steve Mnuchin thinks that $6240 per year is a living wage. Or, about $3 per hour. Considering restaurant minimum wage I guess he's at least consistent in his awfulness.

:thermidor:

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Doccykins posted:

22,000,000 Americans people in America who were employed four weeks ago no longer have a job

Number go up

22 million is only the unemployment claims

way more lost jobs

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

neutral milf hotel posted:

so at what point do unemployed people get kicked off the official unemployment numbers? (for lack of looking for new jobs... that doesn't exist)

I'm sure when that happens then unemployment figures will get super rosy as it shows that the economy is "healing"

the feds can extend it indefinitely

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003

anime was right posted:

half of the internet runs on AWS

AWS is 70 billion in revs. Even with maybe 20% growth going forward hard to justify much more than 5-6x sales. That's 3-400 billion in cap for that business. The retail biz is worse than Walmart's in terms of margin.

Amazon is gonna drop by 50-60% during this cycle

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


14% of the total January 2020 employed labor force (22/158 million) have filed for unemployment since this started. unemployment was 3.6% before. so unemployment in the US is, at an absolute minimum, around 17%. my guess is its over 20%. in a month itll be over 25 to 30%.

at the height of the "Great Recession" unemployment rate reached 10%. At the height of the Great Depression unemployment rate reached 24.9%.

Sheng-Ji Yang fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Apr 16, 2020

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
this is insane

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Pick posted:

the slums of India don't rebel win and get in the news
Not sure I would make that claim.

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

euphronius posted:

the feds can extend it indefinitely

"can" is not "will" though and the numbers will look better if they don't

who's gonna stop them? congress?

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

oxsnard posted:

AWS is 70 billion in revs. Even with maybe 20% growth going forward hard to justify much more than 5-6x sales. That's 3-400 billion in cap for that business. The retail biz is worse than Walmart's in terms of margin.

Amazon is gonna drop by 50-60% during this cycle

aws growth is more like 40%

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

ratbert90 posted:

AMD is almost at all time highs lol. NUMMMMBBBERRRR

lol Intel is going to poo poo the bed when Apple releases their arm macs.

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

14% of the total January 2020 employed labor force (22/158 million) have filed for unemployment since this started. unemployment was 3.6% before. so unemployment in the US is, at an absolute minimum, around 17%. my guess is its over 20%. in a month itll be over 25 to 30%.

at the height of the "Great Recession" unemployment rate reached 10%. At the height of the Great Depression unemployment rate reached 24.9%.

we hosed gd

Nonsense fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Apr 16, 2020

Grace Baiting
Jul 20, 2012

Audi famam illius;
Cucurrit quaeque
Tetigit destruens.



punished milkman posted:

What is a number? A miserable little pile of stonks.

ratbert90 posted:

But enough talk! Ring the bell!


Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/most-unemployed-people-in-2018-did-not-apply-for-unemployment-insurance-benefits.htm?view_full

quote:

In 2018, 74 percent of the unemployed people who had worked in the previous 12 months had not applied for unemployment insurance benefits since their last job. Of the unemployed who had not applied, 3 out of 5 did not apply because they did not believe they were eligible to receive benefits. Eligibility issues include: their work was not covered by unemployment insurance, they quit their job, they were terminated for misconduct, they had insufficient past work, or they had previously exhausted their benefits.

this % is likely much lower right now because people are being more traditionally laid off and likely to qualify and money from unemployment has been increased, but definitely there is a significant number of recently unemployed workers who are not filing for unemployment or have not yet. so id say currently 20% unemployment is low. my guess is labor department will try and fudge stats a bit to hide it but yeah.

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003

bob dobbs is dead posted:

aws growth is more like 40%

Hmm yes I suppose that will continue indefinitely

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/most-unemployed-people-in-2018-did-not-apply-for-unemployment-insurance-benefits.htm?view_full


this % is likely much lower right now because people are being more traditionally laid off and likely to qualify and money from unemployment has been increased, but definitely there is a significant number of recently unemployed workers who are not filing for unemployment or have not yet. so id say currently 20% unemployment is low. my guess is labor department will try and fudge stats a bit to hide it but yeah.

lol its impossible to really understand whats about to happen in the next year. its gonna be a wild fuckin ride

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
don't forget people like lawyers still have their jobs but zero business

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

:five:

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Pick posted:

don't forget people like lawyers still have their jobs but zero business

Not if you're a bankruptcy attorney... :getin:

Mr. Lobe
Feb 23, 2007

... Dry bones...


Horseshoe theory posted:

Not if you're a bankruptcy attorney... :getin:

Or a foreclosure attorney...

May their tongues rot and fall from their mouths

cool av
Mar 2, 2013

Complications posted:

Hmm. So Steve Mnuchin thinks that $6240 per year is a living wage. Or, about $3 per hour. Considering restaurant minimum wage I guess he's at least consistent in his awfulness.

:thermidor:

he didn't say it's enough to live on, he said it's enough to bridge your liquidity.

imagine a giant mosquito on your arm. your blood is the liquidity, the sucker is the bridge, and the engorged abdomen is Dow Jones himself.

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://gazette.com/opinion/editorial-denver-city-council-passes-a-crude-cruel-resolution/article_38d75cb6-7e81-11ea-bfcf-e709559be1d5.html

quote:

EDITORIAL: Denver City Council passes a crude, cruel resolution

The bills are due. The children need food. The plumber needs money for fixing the toilet in grandma’s old house, which students rented after she died last summer.

It is May 10, so maybe the rent check is finally in the mailbox. It needs to be there or things will get worse. It’s not there. May 15; still no check.

Phone call to tenants: “Hello, Bob, I have not received the rent payment yet. Did you send it? I can come to pick it up.”

Tenant Bob: “Oh, we aren’t paying rent. The Denver City Council says we don’t need to. You know, the coronavirus. We have a hardship waiver. Thanks, anyway.”

Landlord: “But, I need the rent. That property comes with expenses. We had to fix the plumbing and sprinkler system. And that broken window. I owe for that. I pay the utilities.”

Tenant: “Sorry, but they tell us the rent’s not due.”

One of the tenants lives on federal student aid. Another has unemployment. The third gets a direct deposit from Uncle Sam, even after keeping his job at a pot store. None of it will go to the landlord, whose cigar shop was ordered closed as a noncritical business.

Members of the mostly far-left, socialist Denver City Council could not care less about the people who provide housing for renters in Colorado. Tenants outnumber landlords, so the math is easy. Send love to the many at a cost to the few. Tenants will always outvote landlords when elections roll around.

The council voted unanimously Monday to pressure Gov. Jared Polis and Colorado’s congressional delegation into liberating renters and mortgage payers throughout the country from lease and loan obligations. Anything goes, even free housing, in a state of pandemic.

Gov. Jared Polis is a kind-hearted, liberal Democrat who wants a soft landing for everyone suffering from this virus and its economic fallout. He has taken extraordinary measures to help people. He by no means wants anyone evicted from a home. Yet, this is where we will see a major distinction between “liberal” and leftist.

Polis plans to take a pass when he receives the council’s resolution. He understands that cutting off a landlord’s income is much the same as telling employers they no longer have to pay employees for doing their jobs. He understands some landlords are rich; others are poor. Most are kind; a few are callous. All have expenses associated with the properties they own and/or control.

More importantly, Polis respects the law. The government has zero authority to suspend rents and mortgages. Doing so amounts to suspending private property rights guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution. There is no germ exception. It is the taking of one person’s property without due process or just compensation. Without property rights, we cannot have a fair, productive and benevolent economy.

“These are private contracts between individuals and institutions and suspending the sanctity of contract is not within the emergency powers of any governor or president,” said Conor Cahill, a spokesman for the governor’s office, in an email to Colorado Politics.

Governments can suspend evictions by declining to assist landlords and banks in ejecting delinquent renters and borrowers. Evictions can become a sheriff’s lowest priority until long after the virus runs its course. Fair enough. Forceful ejection is a crude and cruel instrument during a time of crisis, much like a resolution suspending housing payments.

Throughout this ordeal, landlords and lenders should do whatever possible to help tenants and borrowers remain in their properties. Stability favors both sides of a transaction, and good tenants and borrowers are worth holding on to. Each side of a housing transaction should work cooperatively through economic hardship, and that is the behavior we have witnessed as the norm throughout this contagion.

Our economy is the culmination of billions of independent transactions between buyers and sellers, borrowers and lenders, producers and consumers. For that reason, no single mistake or bad decision can bring down a market.

By contrast, ruling the housing sector with a single, centralized, authoritarian mandate is a recipe for disaster. If government can instantly undo commitments made to landlords and lenders, we can expect a long-term housing crisis unlike any we’ve seen before. Far fewer will risk capital on borrowers and tenants if authorities can suspend their payments each time a crisis arises. It becomes too risky to lend or lease.

Gov. Polis and the congressional delegation should ignore Denver’s resolution as irrational, far-left pandering that would only hurt people who need a competitive housing market. Do the kind thing by letting tenants, borrowers, landlords, and lenders work this out among themselves.

The Gazette Editorial Board

pigz
Jul 12, 2004

Nearly as overlooked as Joe Mauer

oxsnard posted:

Hmm yes I suppose that will continue indefinitely


Amazon is one of the key winners here, whether they like it or not. They will be filling the gap for the foreseeable future. Does that translate into long term profits? I dunnno, but you are severely discounting the knock on effects. This will be a huge blow for cable in the medium term, which is a win for internet companies long term. I've seen more fiber and cable installs than I've seen in FOREVER, and this is for high speed internet. This is a win for Amazon (and others)

I expect high speed infrastructure and business WFH grants as part of this next stimulus if not a follow on one. Also expect the government to roll their cybersecurity initiatives into a larger initiative in modernizing the government and military infrastructure, with a focus on readiness and being able to adapt to WFH situations like this. (1-3 years). again amazon wins here too. (despite not winning the govt cloud contract. any kind of govt regulation leading to increased high speed utilization is +++ to AWS)

That said the numbers are all meaningless. The stock market is engineered to go up, and thus large visible companies will all be overvalued in relation to their peers. The stock market is largely dominated by a few large cap stocks and have been for nearly a decade now, it's just gotten much worse as more meaningless speculative money pours in.

The real measure of growth would be looking at how companies perform absent this sort of nebulous inflator for the heavyweights.

pigz fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Apr 16, 2020

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
our entire economy is effectively collapsing into the bare essentials. like 80% of our GDP is made up lmao

Crunchy Black
Oct 24, 2017

by Athanatos

Horseshoe theory posted:

Not if you're a bankruptcy attorney... :getin:

Paging Pancakes...

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

a bloo bloo bloo

Fellatio del Toro
Mar 21, 2009


we must protect the sanctity of the contract

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

anime was right posted:

our entire economy is effectively collapsing into the bare essentials. like 80% of our GDP is made up lmao

probably more than 80% considering this collapse evolved from a dead cat into a unicorn

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


anime was right posted:

our entire economy is effectively collapsing into the bare essentials. like 80% of our GDP is made up lmao



collapse of manufacturing and agriculture (ie actually producing material things) entirely replaced with Finance and Business Services (ie fictitious capital)

and now the house of cards is blown over

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punished milkman
Dec 5, 2018

would have won

perry bible fellowship is easily the best comic

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