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Celexi posted:the eu and esp the eurozone has 0 future without being federalized, and since that won't happen, brexit is just what is going to happen to all countries eventually That's how I see it as an American. Either push for a United States of Europe, or go home.
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Apr 17, 2020 03:43
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Celexi posted:the eu and esp the eurozone has 0 future without being federalized, and since that won't happen, brexit is just what is going to happen to all countries eventually Yes. Expensive so may take a while though..
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Apr 17, 2020 04:24
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Dommolus Magnus posted:I for one am ready for the European Union of Not-Germanies. The Mediterranean Consensus
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Apr 17, 2020 04:56
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GABA ghoul posted:I never had the impression that the eastern EU expansion was considered much of a burden here in Germany. There was a lot of bitching about crime/open borders, but never about the financial aspect. The east eagerly going along with integration and liberalisation was probably a major factor in this. Overall, the whole process is considered a huge success story here. They saw an insane increase in living standards and economic development and Germany's economy massively profited from it too. GABA ghoul posted:The UK seems to have experienced the whole thing very differently though, considering how big of a factor Polish migration and the EU budget was in the whole Brexit debate.
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Apr 17, 2020 05:12
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suck my woke dick posted:Have you, like, seen the neverending shitshow that is our national governments? Have you considered that policymakers basically retire to the EU to sit out domestic corruption scandals because it's considered a boring meaningless assignment? I'm sorry but, with the notable exception of the European Parliament where 2/3rd are cranks, weirdos, and national party rejects, the EU officials from the national representations in Brussels (Council) and especially the Commission are some of the brightest, best informed policy makers I've ever met. Their personal ideology varies from extremely sus to pretty good, and the institutional forms can be pretty crap, but give me a mid-level EC bureaucrat over the same guy at the national level any day and time.
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Apr 17, 2020 10:27
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FT interview with Macron today: quote:Macron warns of EU unravelling unless it embraces financial solidarity Much as I loathe Macron on the national level, he's the only one with the real power and vision to pull Europe through this self-inflicted shitshow.
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Apr 17, 2020 10:41
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Is he? Or is he gonna do like the last umpteen times where he roared about how he was gonna drag Europe kicking and screaming into a new age and then immediately wagged his tail on command from the frugal four and the day of the votes he remembered about his cat's yoga appointment.
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Apr 17, 2020 10:52
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macron, by all indications, truly believes in the european union. his problem is that nobody else does anymore (and that it's a dysfunctional project to begin with)
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Apr 17, 2020 10:59
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mortons stork posted:Or is he gonna do like the last umpteen times where he roared about how he was gonna drag Europe kicking and screaming into a new age and then immediately wagged his tail on command from the frugal four and the day of the votes he remembered about his cat's yoga appointment. He's the only one with the pull to come remotely anywhere close to getting it done. If he's got the stones he needs to get Italy and Spain behind him and confront Germany & Holland. Problem is that the French and Germans have, since the start of the EU, relied on inter-capital chats and diplomacy to coordinate their responses. I don't know if the French are able to break that habit and really get ready for a fistfight - it goes against institutional memory.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:04
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lol remember when hollande tried to reform the EU and got instantly brought to heel by berlin
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Apr 17, 2020 11:10
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Junior G-man posted:Much as I loathe Macron on the national level, he's the only one with the real power and vision to pull Europe through this self-inflicted shitshow. I don't know if he can actually do it, but he is just an awful president and a condescending bougie bastard, but gently caress if I don't agree with him when it comes to the EU. punk rebel ecks posted:That's how I see it as an American. Same, but we also have our indoctrination that gives us that view. I mentioned earlier how the Articles of Confederation in the US, the first "constitution", was rather quickly abandoned once it became clear that nothing was going to get done, and that the national government wasn't getting any money or had any clout with anyone. It's clear just how toothless the UN is (for many reasons), but giving countries who're clearly at odds with one another a full veto on any action is no way to come together. I ended moving up to France for many reasons, but I do intend on becoming French, and I'd be lying if what I think Europe could be, wasn't a part of that desire to become European. It's just such a shame that it's clearly not going down that path.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:11
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i will actively fight against a vision of europe on the union's terms. i would rather have independent if dysfunctional national states than this bourgeois pseudocosmopolitan bullshit federation where hard-fought victories are easily discardable by appealing to a bunch of traumatised poles
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Apr 17, 2020 11:20
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there has never been a pan-european identity which wasn't deeply chauvinistic and i will have no part in it
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Apr 17, 2020 11:21
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Junior G-man posted:He's the only one with the pull to come remotely anywhere close to getting it done. If he's got the stones he needs to get Italy and Spain behind him and confront Germany & Holland. Problem is that the French and Germans have, since the start of the EU, relied on inter-capital chats and diplomacy to coordinate their responses. I don't know if the French are able to break that habit and really get ready for a fistfight - it goes against institutional memory. Yes. You put it more politely. But the record shows him as a completely ineffectual coward on the European stage. He blusters a lot, and has achieved nothing to show for it.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:33
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mortons stork posted:Yes. You put it more politely. But the record shows him as a completely ineffectual coward on the European stage. He blusters a lot, and has achieved nothing to show for it. I agree - so far it's been a big zero on outcomes, but if you look back over the previous instances, there is a sense of pressure building and his statements are getting more and more bold and face-first. Like I said, it depends on whether he has the stones to really take the fight to Berlin with the backing of Italy and France. So far no, but I do think that this is evolving. We'll see. V. Illych L. posted:lol remember when hollande tried to reform the EU and got instantly brought to heel by berlin Hollande was a bitch-made nothing and I probably hate him more than Macron. He never had the balls to do anything real anywhere. I think with Macron there's at least the possibility of that happening, precisely because of that enormous ego of his.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:38
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I feel dirty for agreeing with Macron, but when he's right he's right.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:43
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i can imagine few outcomes i would rather avoid than a united states of europe the workers split by language and custom, the bosses united by education and harmonised law. we'd have to eliminate almost every language to have any chance at resistance we've seen how the bourgeois superstate works, it's really bad for anyone but the bourgeoisie
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Apr 17, 2020 11:44
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Macron is really good at supporting Macron, and because his Lilliputian rear end has unbridled ambition, he's really good at talking the talk that will get him support for his future euro president run. Wether he walks the walk is another matter entirely. Gotta say, I rather deal with a opportunistic bastard than a true believer, their buttons are easier to push.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:44
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V. Illych L. posted:i can imagine few outcomes i would rather avoid than a united states of europe We'll either have a united states of europe or we won't have an EU. If we don't have an EU, I don't see how we won't have war.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:47
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Orange Devil posted:We'll either have a united states of europe or we won't have an EU. Explain your reasoning. What war? What tensions do you see brewing that bad? Will NATO be gone or do you think NATO doesn't help prevent internal war? All serious questions. Edit: I am not expecting you to know everything, obvs, just your impressions.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:49
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NATO doesn't get involved in wars between its own members
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Apr 17, 2020 11:53
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I know. But they'd surely try to mediate.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:59
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I don't think the nationalist parties which would lead the disintegration of the EU and whip up their support by castigating the perfidious foreigner are going to stop. And there's still a lot of serious bullshit under the surface of Europe that can bubble up again. An AFD which openly praises the Wehrmacht and denies the holocaust. Hungarian irredentism. The UK and Gibraltar. Greece and Northern Macedonia. Or Greece and Turkey. Polish ultranationalism. And in a disintegrated Europe, France and Germany are going to be competing for spheres of influence. We know where that can lead. As for NATO, it's never been shakier. Plus there's also the possibility that countries could choose to be even less critical of the US to get in their good graces as a way to get one over on their neighbors, by supporting yet more idiotic US military adventurism. Alternatively, a disintegrated EU is going to make the Baltics look rather appealing to Russia. None of these are guaranteed or even likely to lead to anything, and reading the whole combination in 2 paragraphs like that makes it seem like Clancy on crack, but let's not deny that the EU has been a force for peace on the European continent at the least. Who knows what the political and economic instability of it breaking up would lead to? But I have a difficult time imagining it being anything other than ugly.
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Apr 17, 2020 11:59
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I'd give the long lasting European peace mostly to being secondary to the US and the Soviet Union during the cold War, not the EU
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Apr 17, 2020 12:03
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^^ that too. Thank you for taking the time to answer, OD. Oh, that ithe breakup would be incredibly ugly is a given. That is not an excuse to make it so that it's a figment more tolerable than the alternative.
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Apr 17, 2020 12:04
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As long as there are many different flags, borders, cultures, languages and ideologies there will be conflict, the hunger for domination and exploitation must be sated, either with banks or tanks. A disintegrated EU would lead to Interesting Times for sure.
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Apr 17, 2020 12:07
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On further reflection I think I was too nationalist in my initial answer, though I do think all those tensions exist and can boil into war in the right circumstances. A lot of the parties pushing for the breakup of the EU are not just far right, not just xenophobic, but straight up fascist. My country now has 2 such parties in parliament, and they are both large parties at that. I have no doubt that if they thought they'd get away with it, they'd try to purge the Muslim population. Leftists would probably be next. A disintegrating EU is going to hand the levers of power to fascists. And fascists need war. Also, I hope to gently caress people wouldn't just lie down and die when fascists try to take over their country, but fight back instead. This is precisely the same reason why we need a democratic and socialist Europe. The current neoliberal consensus only serves to strengthen fascist support. But let's not kid ourselves, a successful socialism must be an international socialism.
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Apr 17, 2020 12:15
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Word, brother!
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Apr 17, 2020 12:21
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Right so there is no hope.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:03
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socialism is never ever ever ever going to happen under the institutional auspices of the EU. socialisms must absolutely take up the banner of euroskepticism or it will be left to the reactionary nationalists and we may see the war you fear
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Apr 17, 2020 13:05
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if brexit showed us anything, it is that the revolt against neoliberalism can be successfully harnessed not just by the left but by the nativist right. we cannot afford to be behind the curve on this stuff or those assholes can and will steal our thunder
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Apr 17, 2020 13:11
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V. Illych L. posted:socialism is never ever ever ever going to happen under the institutional auspices of the EU. socialisms must absolutely take up the banner of euroskepticism or it will be left to the reactionary nationalists and we may see the war you fear I'm sorry but I just do not agree, the reactionary nationalists are shouting the same thing you are and every time someone buys it they get another vote because working together is literally what socialists espouse. And the right wing knows this, so they can shout about euroskepticism as the biggest most important thing and try to convert leftists to see it as the most important thing too. I know I'm explaining it badly but what I'm trying to say is that euroskepticism isn't going to start an avalanche of leftist parties winning, because it can never be their biggest goal simply because there are more important leftist policies.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:32
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An insane mind posted:I'm sorry but I just do not agree, the reactionary nationalists are shouting the same thing you are and every time someone buys it they get another vote because working together is literally what socialists espouse. And the right wing knows this, so they can shout about euroskepticism as the biggest most important thing and try to convert leftists to see it as the most important thing too. I know I'm explaining it badly but what I'm trying to say is that euroskepticism isn't going to start an avalanche of leftist parties winning, because it can never be their biggest goal simply because there are more important leftist policies. there literally aren't the EU is constitutionally and institutionally neoliberal, and there is no urgent leftist project compatible with neoliberalism
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Apr 17, 2020 13:34
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V. Illych L. posted:i will actively fight against a vision of europe on the union's terms. i would rather have independent if dysfunctional national states than this bourgeois pseudocosmopolitan bullshit federation where hard-fought victories are easily discardable by appealing to a bunch of traumatised poles I mean I get where you're coming from. But what you're saying sounds like you're begging for a cursed monkey's paw there. I'm a EU-immigrant; many of my friends are in fact. I'm not really looking forward to a time when the finger on that paw curls and the nationalists storm the parliaments. I'm seeing enough "Identitarian Movement", "Defend Motherland From Immigrants", etc. stickers everyday, and I'm tiring of drunk gammons explaining to me why exactly my partner and I fall into the category of people who are worth keeping around today (or not). Having international treaties that guarantee my rights to move, work, live, is a layer of protection that I'd not give up easily. You may think that's a selfish motivation of mine and you aren't entirely wrong. But with the euroskeptics will come another wave of fascists into power. They would indubitably make my life miserable, and they once they are satisfied with that start after going other people, until they run out of people to come after or are stopped with force. Maybe I'm catastrophizing. But I don't know any group of people for whom the euroskeptics I know would be good news.
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Apr 17, 2020 14:08
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the alternative to pro-EU is only reactionary nationalism if we force it to be out of some misguided commitment to bourgeois liberalism if we are serious about socialism we're going to have to deal with the EU one way or the other, and it's incredibly resistant to reform by design there's a lot of justified popular resentment against the EU going around, and that's only going to increase. we can try to tap into that or we can leave it to the fascists - either way, absent a miracle of some sort the EU is hosed
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Apr 17, 2020 14:16
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V. Illych L. posted:the alternative to pro-EU is only reactionary nationalism if we force it to be out of some misguided commitment to bourgeois liberalism No, the alternative to "pro-EU" is only reactionary nationalism because thats how things actually are in the real world, instead of some imaginary theoretical paradise. In every European country today the most popular political parties advocating for -exit are the most fascist ones, and they're the ones who'll gain the most power from any country-exit or total EU collapse. Right-wing extremist parties have shown again and again over the last 100 years in Europe that they do better than left-wing alternatives in times of economic and political turmoil. The EU has plenty of faults, and needs huge reform. But I'd personally far rather live in a unified Europe where the EU is reformed from within to make it more left-wing, rather than a Europe made up of a patchwork quilt of reactionary, fascist, right-wing nationalist run states that harbours back to the 1930s.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:20
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What is the path to socialism for tiny European countries, all alone against the world - or in a military pact with the #1 socialist crusher?
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Apr 17, 2020 15:50
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i mean we literally just saw a socialist party get crushed due to a failure to get behind anti-european sentiment, it's not as though i'm just arguing hypotheticals here in my country, euroskepticism is the domain of the left in coalition with the agricultural party, it's not as though it's an inherently right-wing position
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Apr 17, 2020 15:56
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Did it get crushed because of it's failure to get behind anti-european sentiment or was it because half the party consisted of Blairite class traitors who deliberately sabotaged everything with the intent of losing the elections as spectacularly as possible?
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Apr 17, 2020 16:15
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Orange Devil posted:Did it get crushed because of it's failure to get behind anti-european sentiment or was it because half the party consisted of Blairite class traitors who deliberately sabotaged everything with the intent of losing the elections as spectacularly as possible? one was true in two elections, the other was true in one - and that one was a disaster it's absolutely incontrovertible that brexit was a huge problem for labour in the 2019 election
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Apr 17, 2020 16:18
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