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VikingSkull posted:my favorite part is the confirmed cases being lower than the number of deaths  quote:The total number of cases recorded in the city now stands at 50,333, with 3,869 deaths tater_salad posted:America's population is only dense in some areas, but in all other area's its very dense.
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Apr 17, 2020 12:53
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tater_salad posted:America's population is only dense in some areas, but in all other area's its very dense. There's six US states which currently have higher per capita COVID-19 death rates than Sweden. The other states are percolating away ..... Edit: We're still only in the early stages of the pandemic, comparing per capita rates between countries at this point is pretty pointless, especially since the countries all started at different points and have had different amounts of time for conditions to develop. The first recorded infection and the first recorded death in Sweden were about a week earlier than those in the US, to stick to the current example. One week ago Sweden's death rate per capita was 78/million, the US's current rate is 105/million. Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 13:08 on Apr 17, 2020 |
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Apr 17, 2020 12:59
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One way in which the current pandemic continues to frustrate is the amount of things we want to know but simply cannot. Decisions and plans that would be straightforward with more information become murky when our information is limited. In an era where we are used to having all the information we could possibly need, where the most common problem is sorting through the abundance of facts to make sure we discard any misinformation and keep only the truth, encountering a situation where there the truth cannot yet be known is a unique frustration. Here's a great NYTimes piece on how there's no real way to know the current fatality rate, and we probably won't be able to figure it out for a while.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:08
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Mithaldu posted:
HK had months extra in ppe training fighting the other virus.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:09
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NYC has started reporting probable deaths, lumping a bunch into 4/14, creating a classic Wuhan spike:quote:New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained 
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Apr 17, 2020 13:11
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VikingSkull posted:https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/asia/china-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-intl-hnk/index.html Yeah that makes sense, they were able to revise their numbers based on the not-at-all mysterious uptick in at-home deaths. That's pretty much what's happening in New York right now, we know that there are people dying at home that co-residing family members are calling 9-1-1 over, and an additional who-knows-how-many dying at home by themselves. Seriously-hit areas will take awhile to figure out numbers that are more true to reality And that's not to say that Wuhan's numbers are final, either; they could easily go higher. For instance do these new numbers only include people who tested positive at some point, or is it an estimate derived from the mean at-home death rate in months and years prior to the pandemic, or what? Accurate attribution without testing is pretty difficult
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Apr 17, 2020 13:14
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In the end, comparison to week-by-week fatalities in the years prior will provide a first assessment of how many deaths are actually attributable to covid. A comparison to the drop in deaths in futur years might also work, given how the pandemic is almost exclusively killing people who would have died anyway in the next few years.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:18
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HerStuddMuffin posted:In the end, comparison to week-by-week fatalities in the years prior will provide a first assessment of how many deaths are actually attributable to covid. A comparison to the drop in deaths in futur years might also work, given how the pandemic is almost exclusively killing people who would have died anyway in the next few years. That statement isn't accurate at all
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Apr 17, 2020 13:19
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HerStuddMuffin posted:In the end, comparison to week-by-week fatalities in the years prior will provide a first assessment of how many deaths are actually attributable to covid. A comparison to the drop in deaths in futur years might also work, given how the pandemic is almost exclusively killing people who would have died anyway in the next few years. While i've argued the same before when some people were claiming Wuhan had 40 000 covid deaths, it also needs to be kept in mind that "everyone stays home" also means the data gets muddled by certain types of other deaths being reduced.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:22
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Mithaldu posted:
quote:on Friday added 1,290 coronavirus deaths to the city's toll. They also added 325 confirmed cases to the city tally. it's more a reflection on CNN not being able to effectively write an article
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Apr 17, 2020 13:23
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VikingSkull posted:it's more a reflection on CNN not being able to effectively write an article OK, yeah, that's fucky.  There's a possibility that they're going to add them to the diagnosis number later on, but if they don't then that's a minor, but extremely clear case of loving the numbers.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:26
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Mithaldu posted:OK, yeah, that's fucky. It's not so much that this particular case is minor, more that there's multiple cases of minor fuckery that adds up to a cumulative case of major fuckery
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Apr 17, 2020 13:40
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Mithaldu posted:OK, yeah, that's fucky. It's not fucky if those patients had tested positive prior to dying at home; they'd already be counted in the diagnoses tally. Then someone would notice "Hey our dataset has a bunch of cases diagnosed 3 months ago that never got set to recovered. You think maybe they died?"
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Apr 17, 2020 13:56
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Finland's PPE case has become even more stupid. We previously knew that the masks Finland ordered from China to replace our expired stockpile of PPE proved to not be up to the standards required of medical PPE in Europe, but the hope was that it could be used in non-medical fields, like elderly care etc. Well, not so much. The people who used the masks reported they got "severe" skin conditions, allergic reactions and rashes from using the masks and other gear and now the whole two million euro shipment has been declared unusable.
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Apr 17, 2020 13:58
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All the idiots in my area on facebook now are posting people with the various signs saying the stats on covid 19 deaths, flu, suicide, alcohol, abortions, etc. This just really kills me. The only one that is anywhere near related to this is the flu stats. The fuckers don't even realize that you don't catch suicide, abortions, cancer or alcoholism just by being in the public. What the gently caress is wrong with these stupid people and their reasoning on this?
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Apr 17, 2020 13:59
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The wint twit but it's China turning the "number of covid deaths" dial until they land on a credible number while looking back at the rest of the world
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Apr 17, 2020 13:59
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TenTonHammer posted:you don't catch ... alcoholism just by being in the public. I dunno man every time I go out in public I end up wanting to get hammered
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Apr 17, 2020 14:00
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TenTonHammer posted:All the idiots in my area on facebook now are posting people with the various signs saying the stats on covid 19 deaths, flu, suicide, alcohol, abortions, etc. This just really kills me. The only one that is anywhere near related to this is the flu stats. The fuckers don't even realize that you don't catch suicide, abortions, cancer or alcoholism just by being in the public. What the gently caress is wrong with these stupid people and their reasoning on this? Counterpoint: these people are making me want to die and I'm not even in close proximity to them, which I guess would be almost like catching suicide?
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Apr 17, 2020 14:02
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Mithaldu posted:OK, yeah, that's fucky. Confirmed case now can become a death in ten days. Death now would probably have been a confirmed case ten days ago. In many hotspots one now sees lower number of new cases and still pretty high deaths. And daily numbers are very volatile because of delays in reporting. Criteria change, number of tests change. Deal with all that noise in the numbers.
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Apr 17, 2020 14:07
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Oh my god QUICK TENTIN QUARANTINO 
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Apr 17, 2020 14:10
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Mithaldu posted:While i've argued the same before when some people were claiming Wuhan had 40 000 covid deaths, it also needs to be kept in mind that "everyone stays home" also means the data gets muddled by certain types of other deaths being reduced. This. Last I looked, overall deaths were only at 88% of what we expect. Pneumonia deaths, that totally aren't covid-19 no no no, were up over 200% from where you'd expect from what I could tell from the CDCs own stats.
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Apr 17, 2020 14:14
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Lodin posted:Good news, today is International Bat Appreciation Day. I say we for at least one day stop eating bats. reported for tyrrany
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Apr 17, 2020 14:27
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wilderthanmild posted:This. Last I looked, overall deaths were only at 88% of what we expect. I'm sure there is some useful analysis out there, but it's very difficult to gain useful insight by comparing year on year flu deaths. 200% increase is honestly nothing when it comes to flu. Some years have 2,000%+ more fatalities than the last. In the UK, last year was extremely mild with sub 2000 deaths. In 2014/15 it was almost 30,000. I have no idea how bad the current flu strain is meant to be, all I can say is that lots of old people will be dying of both flu and coronavirus and a rise in pneumonia deaths is not necessarily indicative of fudging numbers on corona, though it's not at all out of the question.
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Apr 17, 2020 14:52
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unpacked robinhood posted:Tentin Quarantino is a good one yeah it's loving gold
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Apr 17, 2020 14:55
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Time_pants posted:Okay, I give up. Which was which in this example? Well for the first hint I was talking about the known rapist incumbent, for the second example was the known rapist nominee. See the difference yet? Who better to lead us against a pandemic than another abuser?
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Apr 17, 2020 14:57
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HerStuddMuffin posted:Is that close enough for her to worry yet? That is extremely close enough to worry if you don't have a plan for getting to the hospital yet.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:05
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QuarkJets posted:It's not fucky if those patients had tested positive prior to dying at home; they'd already be counted in the diagnoses tally. Then someone would notice "Hey our dataset has a bunch of cases diagnosed 3 months ago that never got set to recovered. You think maybe they died?" Oh yeah, depends on what the interpretation of "died at home" is, AND 359 is a significant jump to the data from the past days too. Makes sense.  At least they're not doing what germany does. yesterday:  today:  All of the yellow bits? That's the new cases the RKI added to its data on that day, but redistributed according to date of diagnosis. And on the next day they turn blue. This way the graph is *always* going down, and it's actually noticable from german politics that a lot of people are falling to that misinterpretation of the graph.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:07
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Jeza posted:I'm sure there is some useful analysis out there, but it's very difficult to gain useful insight by comparing year on year flu deaths. 200% increase is honestly nothing when it comes to flu. Some years have 2,000%+ more fatalities than the last. In the UK, last year was extremely mild with sub 2000 deaths. In 2014/15 it was almost 30,000. This was pneumonia deaths, of which the same CDC stats said only around ~5k of the now 45k pneumonia deaths were flu. Additionally the stats included only ~5k coronavirus deaths. So we have almost a year's worth of pneumonia deaths, even if you exclude the flu ones and covid deaths. In a normal year you'd expect to be around 15k to 20k, and that's assuming an even larger share than normal for January Thru March. I'm not necessarily saying there is a cover up mind you, but there really might be something like 5 to 10k deaths mislabeled as pneumonia for all kinds of reasons. It's also worth noting that these stats are up to 14 days old and that number of pneumonia deaths seems to be rising about 1000 per day for the last few days. So the current number could be significantly higher. I'm not sure if we could use these numbers that well now, but in the future, pneumonia deaths might be a good category of you were trying to get an estimate of undercount. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
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Apr 17, 2020 15:16
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Mithaldu posted:Oh yeah, depends on what the interpretation of "died at home" is, AND 359 is a significant jump to the data from the past days too. Makes sense. Ohio does this too with their graphs they release daily.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:17
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Mithaldu posted:Oh yeah, depends on what the interpretation of "died at home" is, AND 359 is a significant jump to the data from the past days too. Makes sense. Numbers are difficult and most people are tech illiterate. These German numbers make sense for those who understand them. They are just a step beyond the capacity of a Trump voter. The Dutch numbers are presented similarly: the numbers for the most recent days are adjusted for delayed reporting, and all presentations in responsible media add the note that those recent numbers are incomplete. Also the total death counts regardless of cause are also added now, so everybody can see what is really going on. (In my blessed isolated Northern province the total death numbers of 2020 are actually lower than those of last year) Lotti Fuehrscheim fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Apr 17, 2020 |
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Apr 17, 2020 15:21
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Time_pants posted:That is extremely close enough to worry if you don't have a plan for getting to the hospital yet. Hospital is forty minutes away. They said come in when they're five minutes apart. They're like.. 7-8 ATM..
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Apr 17, 2020 15:24
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Wutang-Yutani posted:Hospital is forty minutes away. Buddy if your partner's water broke then you're going to have a baby within 24 hours of it. Time to head to the hospital. e: this is based on my experience of two (2) kids and many, many friends that had their kids pop out within the 24 window of water breaking.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:31
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that baby is gonna get born in a car lol
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Apr 17, 2020 15:32
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"Daddy how did I get my name?" "Well you see, Caryntine ....."
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Apr 17, 2020 15:36
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I like how the census is still chugging along like everything is cool and normal.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:36
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Bananaquiter posted:I like how the census is still chugging along like everything is cool and normal. they are keeping enumerators from going door to door and asking for an extension but it is constitutionally mandated to be completed this year, what exactly do you recommend they do? Self response isnt affected by this mail is being delivered and people are responding online.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:39
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Bananaquiter posted:I like how the census is still chugging along like everything is cool and normal. quote:
https://2020census.gov/en/news-events/operational-adjustments-covid-19.html
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Apr 17, 2020 15:40
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New Zealand update: I just read the comments section for a news article on the internet and... it made me feel good??? I think I feel some shred of faith in humanity????? https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121083254/wellington-eatery-blindsided-by-unclear-advice-on-their-operation-under-lockdown tldr: Bakery complains about lockdown, they thought they were essential yadda yadda (tbh I didn't actually read the article itself)... everyone in the comments is in support of the lockdown, even those with affected businesses. Makes me really glad to live somewhere that's taking effective measures and the vast majority of the population are on board with it. A few dickheads flouting the rules as anywhere but overall people realise it's important and are doing their bit. We only had 8 new cases today (down from 80ish at peak) despite having initiated random tests outside supermarkets over the last couple of days, the first batch of which have all come up negative. 816 of our 1086 total cases have recovered. We are looking at a slight easing of the restrictions next week if case numbers stay low, allowing "safe" businesses in certain industries to operate if they can maintain distancing and health & safety standards regarding the virus. Personally I'm a little nervous about that and would like to stay in full lockdown another week at least but hopefully the plan works and it doesn't flare back up. We might even be able to eradicate it here completely with a little luck - borders are still closed to foreign nationals and even returning citizens and residents are now subject to mandatory enforced 2 week quarantine.
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Apr 17, 2020 15:47
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We're like 3 days away from Republicans claiming we need to do literal loving human sacrifices atop a stone pyramid to placate Economy, lest it turn its back on us forever! What are a few hundred thousand dead when compared to Economy!?!?
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Apr 17, 2020 15:50
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Der Shovel posted:Finland's PPE case has become even more stupid. We previously knew that the masks Finland ordered from China to replace our expired stockpile of PPE proved to not be up to the standards required of medical PPE in Europe, but the hope was that it could be used in non-medical fields, like elderly care etc. Finland's PPE case is far more bizarre and interesting than you are implying Agency boss admits paying out millions of euros without getting hospital-grade PPE https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/agency_boss_admits_paying_out_millions_of_euros_without_getting_hospital-grade_ppe/11302278 Hells Angels and a reality TV star: How Finland’s mask shortage got weird https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-finland-hells-angels-and-a-reality-tv-star-how-mask-shortage-got-weird/ Trash-masks scandal: the 5 million paid by Finland ended up in a bank account in Belgium https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/c...2807005239.html
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Apr 17, 2020 15:53
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