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Happiness Commando
Feb 1, 2002
$$ joy at gunpoint $$

doingitwrong posted:

- Past performance does not predict future results.
- The recent performance of the 500 has been improbably strong, so it’s a particularly bad idea to presume that will continue. (This was recorded before the crash.)
These two bullets directly contradict each other

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Kylaer
Aug 4, 2007
I'm SURE walking around in a respirator at all times in an (even more) OPEN BIDENing society is definitely not a recipe for disaster and anyone that's not cool with getting harassed by CHUDs are cave dwellers. I've got good brain!

Happiness Commando posted:

These two bullets directly contradict each other

Yes, but they're both still true. Welcome to investing.

Gerdalti
May 24, 2003

SPOON!
For anyone that uses Fidelity. If I want to setup automatic investments, can I do the same as I do with Vanguard, and just put in a larger value than will be there every month, and it will auto-invest what ever is available?

Say my deposit is $1000, but might vary by a bit monthly, can I put in $1500 as auto-invest, and have it just whatever is available into the fund?

Space Gopher
Jul 31, 2006

BLITHERING IDIOT AND HARDCORE DURIAN APOLOGIST. LET ME TELL YOU WHY THIS SHIT DON'T STINK EVEN THOUGH WE ALL KNOW IT DOES BECAUSE I'M SUPER CULTURED.

doingitwrong posted:

I’m actually realizing I don’t know who the counterparty is when I buy a mutual fund, ETFs I understand but not mutual funds).

Mutual fund trades aren't done on the open market. When you buy or sell shares of a mutual fund, your counterparty is the fund's owner, just like when you deposit or withdraw money from a savings account your counterparty is the bank.

Happiness Commando
Feb 1, 2002
$$ joy at gunpoint $$

Kylaer posted:

Yes, but they're both still true. Welcome to investing.

No. "The S&P did well in the past so it's overdue for a correction" may be true in the broadest, most basic sense, but it's still a gambler's fallacy that you can't count on. Try that market timing game someone posted pages back, but pretend that every time increment is a year instead of a second.

H110Hawk
Dec 28, 2006

Gerdalti posted:

For anyone that uses Fidelity. If I want to setup automatic investments, can I do the same as I do with Vanguard, and just put in a larger value than will be there every month, and it will auto-invest what ever is available?

Say my deposit is $1000, but might vary by a bit monthly, can I put in $1500 as auto-invest, and have it just whatever is available into the fund?

No. They only support fixed amount automatic investments. If you auto-buy from your core account then you have to have at least that amount for it to buy, there doesn't appear to be a way to "sweep" your core account into a mutual fund, or have a transfer automatically land in a mutual fund.

H110Hawk fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Apr 18, 2020

crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



doingitwrong posted:

Are we getting confused because some funds are cap weighted and some are equal weighted?

The S&P 500 is cap weighted so any fund tracking that index shouldn’t have to do any buying or selling unless a stock leaves the index (such as when Macy’s got kicked out of the S&P 500) or a lot of people buy or sell the fund (I’m actually realizing I don’t know who the counterparty is when I buy a mutual fund, ETFs I understand but not mutual funds).

If the index being tracked was equal weighted then the fund would need to rebalance but few index funds are.

So in a theoretical Dow-tracking index fund this could be an issue, but shouldn’t be the case in a capitalization weighted index like the S&P 500 if we are one the same wavelength here?

Is there a rogue DJIA index fund out there?

Yond Cassius posted:

I don't think I'm following here.

Let's take a very simple fund of five equal-size companies. We start it with $500, $100 in each company. Each company experiences more or less random performance over ten periods (I've modeled this as a flat distribution between +/- 25%/period).

In this sample run, Company 1 winds up wildly successful (more than doubling in value), Companies 2 and 3 experience some bad luck (losing 30% and 40% respectively), while Companies 4 and 5 manage some very minor gains.

Company 1 winds up making up nearly 40% of the fund's value... just because it keeps growing, and its future performance will have a very large impact on the fund as a result. The fund manager never has to make any adjustments just to follow the capital weighting unless the bottom performer drops out and gets replaced, or there's something in the charter about no individual stock ever making up more than X% of the whole.



Thanks for making this in excel!

crazypeltast52 fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Apr 18, 2020

literally this big
Jan 10, 2007



Here comes
the Squirtle Squad!
Seriously, I wish these investing platforms / companies would get with the times and allow for more options to control the flow and management of your money. I read a lot that Fidelity and Schwab offer a better UX and more options than Vanguard, and I believe it, but it doesn't seem like enough to get me to switch over, either. Oddly enough, I think it's Robinhood that's the closest to delivering on what I'd like, as they at least have all the infrastructure for doing it manually. $0 minimums, $1 fractional shares, the recent addition of a DRIP option, an interest-earning cash account (with a cool metal debit card), but it all has to be done manually, and they don't offer SpecID. M1 seemed to show a lot of promise, their whole automated "pie" thing made a big splash and was super interesting, but their pie thing is actually rather basic, they just recently reduced the amount of automation that their platform actually offers to save on costs on their end, and they don't have SpecID (which would be perfect for a portfolio that regularly and automatically grows and rebalances itself). This crash must have hit them very hard, too.

I'd like a platform where I can set up certain parameters on different funds / accounts, like "if Emergency Savings is <$10,000, deposit dividend into Emergency Savings account; otherwise re-invest dividend" or "re-invest 50% of dividend, and deposit 50% into House Down Payment account" or something customizable like that. I want to build a financial Rube Goldberg machine.

raminasi
Jan 25, 2005

a last drink with no ice
If I'm reading things right, I can buy a Vanguard target date fund in a Vanguard IRA for free, or I can buy one in a Fidelity IRA for $75. Everything else I have is with Fidelity, and it would be nice to have everything in one place. It's free, albeit annoying, to transfer between the two. Am I missing something, or is the optimal strategy here to make a yearly purchase in a Vanguard account and then transfer it over? Because $75 feels right on the line of whether that's worth the hassle.

H110Hawk
Dec 28, 2006

raminasi posted:

If I'm reading things right, I can buy a Vanguard target date fund in a Vanguard IRA for free, or I can buy one in a Fidelity IRA for $75. Everything else I have is with Fidelity, and it would be nice to have everything in one place. It's free, albeit annoying, to transfer between the two. Am I missing something, or is the optimal strategy here to make a yearly purchase in a Vanguard account and then transfer it over? Because $75 feels right on the line of whether that's worth the hassle.

Buy Fidelity funds if you are with Fidelity.

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

Hahah Fidelity still pulls that poo poo?

raminasi
Jan 25, 2005

a last drink with no ice

H110Hawk posted:

Buy Fidelity funds if you are with Fidelity.

Their target date funds have way higher expense ratios. Should I not be as married to them as I am? I like the idea because I'm pretty lazy and also if I start making active decisions I'm pretty sure I'm going to make bad ones.

Guinness
Sep 15, 2004

raminasi posted:

Their target date funds have way higher expense ratios. Should I not be as married to them as I am? I like the idea because I'm pretty lazy and also if I start making active decisions I'm pretty sure I'm going to make bad ones.

???

Fidelity's target date funds are actually lower than Vanguard's.

Fidelity 2050: 0.12%
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315793869

Vanguard 2050: 0.15%
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFIFX

But they are both so cheap the difference is basically irrelevant.

Don't do a silly thing like paying outside mutual fund fees just to hold Vanguard funds in a Fidelity account. Either use a Vanguard account, or buy Fidelity funds that are effectively the same thing.

Guinness fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Apr 18, 2020

Cassius Belli
May 22, 2010

horny is prohibited

crazypeltast52 posted:

So in a theoretical Dow-tracking index fund this could be an issue, but shouldn’t be the case in a capitalization weighted index like the S&P 500 if we are one the same wavelength here?

Is there a rogue DJIA index fund out there?

Does DIA count? That's an ETF, but "the DJIA as one monolithic transaction" is basically its purpose in life.

There are a couple S&P500EWI funds and ETFs out there (and S&P even publishes an official tracking number), but relatively speaking they're a niche product and the expense ratios are noticeably higher. RSP and INDEX are probably your best bets (0.20% and 0.25% expense ratios, respectively). For some reason VADCX feels justified charging 1.27% (!!!) and a 1% deferred load if you keep your holdings less than a year.

raminasi
Jan 25, 2005

a last drink with no ice

Guinness posted:

???

Fidelity's target date funds are actually lower than Vanguard's.

Fidelity 2050: 0.12%
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315793869

Vanguard 2050: 0.15%
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFIFX

But they are both so cheap the difference is basically irrelevant.

Don't do a silly thing like paying outside mutual fund fees just to hold Vanguard funds in a Fidelity account. Either use a Vanguard account, or buy Fidelity funds that are effectively the same thing.

Oh, I didn't realize that each of these comes in both an actively-managed and an index version, and I was looking at the wrong one. Thanks!

doingitwrong
Jul 27, 2013

Happiness Commando posted:

No. "The S&P did well in the past so it's overdue for a correction" may be true in the broadest, most basic sense, but it's still a gambler's fallacy that you can't count on. Try that market timing game someone posted pages back, but pretend that every time increment is a year instead of a second.

That's true. That is the gamblers fallacy. That's not what he argues.

He doesn't suggest that there is a correction due. Maybe the S&P 500 will continue its incredible run. Maybe it will continue to outperform the US stock market which will continue to grow to well beyond the ~40-50% of the world's equity markets that it represents today (I am having trouble finding recent reliable data with a quick search).

If you are going to choose to invest only in the S&P 500 instead of a more diversified set of stocks like a total US index or a total world index, then you should have a reason for thinking that the S&P 500 will outperform those more diversified portfolios. What is your reason for thinking that? He cautions that looking at the performance from 1987-2019 is not a reliable reason for thinking the trend will continue in the future.

H110Hawk
Dec 28, 2006

Pryor on Fire posted:

Hahah Fidelity still pulls that poo poo?

Vanguard charges $20 to buy a fidelity mutual fund, they're both bad and Fidelity's is worse, but it's not crazy. There's no reason to buy across brokerages like this. There is almost always a better path forwards.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Guinness posted:

???

Fidelity's target date funds are actually lower than Vanguard's.

Fidelity 2050: 0.12%
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315793869

Vanguard 2050: 0.15%
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFIFX

But they are both so cheap the difference is basically irrelevant.

Don't do a silly thing like paying outside mutual fund fees just to hold Vanguard funds in a Fidelity account. Either use a Vanguard account, or buy Fidelity funds that are effectively the same thing.


Are the expense ratios lower for Vanguard funds if they're through a 401(k)? My Vanguard target-date funds are administered through Fidelity and are all like 0.10% cheaper than what you're quoting for Fidelity. I'm in the Vanguard 2040 for 0.02% expense ratio, and the 2050 is 0.04%.

CoolCat
Jun 29, 2015

UK: government is now reducing the payout on premium bonds. The safe mans saving option has now become even duller.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


My girlfriend is finally listening to my advice that she needs to start planning for her retirement. She has 20k sitting around in her checking and isn't contributing to anything. She makes $62k/year, so just under the limits for traditional IRA deductability. Should she be going for a Traditional IRA or Roth?

Edit: She works for a non-profit, if it matters.

Edit 2: Her work offers a 403(b) through Fidelity, but they don't do any kind of matching because they're terrible.

KillHour fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Apr 18, 2020

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

Sundae posted:

Are the expense ratios lower for Vanguard funds if they're through a 401(k)? My Vanguard target-date funds are administered through Fidelity and are all like 0.10% cheaper than what you're quoting for Fidelity. I'm in the Vanguard 2040 for 0.02% expense ratio, and the 2050 is 0.04%.
Expense ratios are negotiable by the 401(k) administrator.

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

TFW you see Flyers goaltending.
Grimey Drawer

KillHour posted:

My girlfriend is finally listening to my advice that she needs to start planning for her retirement. She has 20k sitting around in her checking and isn't contributing to anything. She makes $62k/year, so just under the limits for traditional IRA deductability. Should she be going for a Traditional IRA or Roth?

Edit: She works for a non-profit, if it matters.

Edit 2: Her work offers a 403(b) through Fidelity, but they don't do any kind of matching because they're terrible.

The thread usually recommends:

-Emergency savings
-401k match if any
-Roth IRA
-401k


Looks like she has emergency savings, just a question of how much of that 20k she would want to move over. The follow up question is how stable is her job / Line of work? Usually, 6 months expenses is fine, my personal opinion is now is a time where it isn’t a bad idea to be more cautious / have a bit more than usual set aside.

That said, Vanguard target date funds require only $1,000 to start, Admiral funds like total stock is $3,000. So at the least, you can take $x,000 out to start, and that gives her a fund to contribute to, be it further from the savings or from monthly budget.

zaurg
Mar 1, 2004
March 25th, 2020:

smackfu posted:

I got really down this weekend and was thinking about selling on Monday (March 23rd, 2020) and getting into something safer than stocks since I figured things were only getting worse.

If I had sold, I would have missed the 10% gain yesterday.

Just my periodic reminder not to time the market.

Re-reminder for us

MeatRocket8
Aug 3, 2011

If you got the money, and want a 15% return, buy a Hermes Birkin handbag.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/4182246/hermes-birkin-bag-investment-gold/%3Famp%3Dtrue

MJP
Jun 17, 2007

Are you looking at me Senpai?

Grimey Drawer
If I want to sell funds/ETFs in my brokerage account to do my 2019 and 2020 Roth IRA contributions, should I aim to sell anything that's a long-term or short-term capital loss first and foremost, regardless of how long I've held it?

Guinness
Sep 15, 2004

Sundae posted:

Are the expense ratios lower for Vanguard funds if they're through a 401(k)? My Vanguard target-date funds are administered through Fidelity and are all like 0.10% cheaper than what you're quoting for Fidelity. I'm in the Vanguard 2040 for 0.02% expense ratio, and the 2050 is 0.04%.

Your 401k likely has the institutional-class of the funds, which have near-zero ERs but multi-million dollar investment minimums (spread out amongst all the plan participants). I linked the regular investor shares versions of each which are the much more accessible classes more likely to be available in one's IRA.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

crazypeltast52 posted:

Unless shares are being issued or bought back, how would the fund’s holdings change on a wighted basis by the stock dropping?

If 4% of the index is Facebook and 4% of the funds assets are Facebook, changes in value should track without requiring rebalancing?

You're right, I phrased what I meant in a way that was really misleading. The mutual fund doesn't sell shares; it's just, the value of those shares as a percentage of the whole fund drops, so you're no longer holding "as much" of that company as a percentage of your portfolio.

But having said that, companies can do things like buy back shares or issue new shares, which I think would oblige the index to adjust for a consistent market weight? Uhhhh. I have to think that one through.

A MIRACLE
Sep 17, 2007

All right. It's Saturday night; I have no date, a two-liter bottle of Shasta and my all-Rush mix-tape... Let's rock.

Hello thread, just hoping for a sanity check..

I have what feels like too much cash to hold in a bank. I am already maxing my 401k and my emergency fund is full. I make too much to take advantage of an IRA (unless I'm reading it wrong...?). I have no debt.

I would like to buy a house at some point in 2022. But other than the downpayment savings, should I be buying ETF shares or something with my extra cash? It's just sitting in a savings account right now. I don't have any expenses planned until the 2022 move.

Thanks

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

A MIRACLE posted:

Hello thread, just hoping for a sanity check..

I have what feels like too much cash to hold in a bank. I am already maxing my 401k and my emergency fund is full. I make too much to take advantage of an IRA (unless I'm reading it wrong...?). I have no debt.

I would like to buy a house at some point in 2022. But other than the downpayment savings, should I be buying ETF shares or something with my extra cash? It's just sitting in a savings account right now. I don't have any expenses planned until the 2022 move.

Thanks
Google "backdoor Roth" if you would like more tax-advantaged space.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


A MIRACLE posted:

I have what feels like too much cash to hold in a bank.

I can PM you my PayPal information and we can take care of that for you.

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

The backdoor Roth will only help you with $6k though. Anything for down payment purchases should be kept in a high yield savings account until you need it, the rest can go into a taxable brokerage.

literally this big
Jan 10, 2007



Here comes
the Squirtle Squad!
Hello thread, I have more questions about HSAs:

I'm considering enrolling in a HDHP plan through Kaiser. The bank that would manage my HSA if I just managed it thru Kaiser offers regular Admiral share vanguard funds, but nothing special. Is there any particular benefit to keeping my HSA more 'in-house' thru Kaiser, or should I look for other HSA providers? Vanguard recommends one on their site that offers Institutional class shares. What should I look for in a HSA provider?

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Hoodwinker posted:

The backdoor Roth will only help you with $6k though. Anything for down payment purchases should be kept in a high yield savings account until you need it, the rest can go into a taxable brokerage.

There's a mega backdoor, too.

zaurg
Mar 1, 2004
Is this the right time to move my savings into oil

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

zaurg posted:

Is this the right time to move my savings into oil

Do it and don't post anything until you're ready to report back on completing it.

TITTIEKISSER69
Mar 19, 2005

SAVE THE BEES
PLANT MORE TREES
CLEAN THE SEAS
KISS TITTIESS




I recommend investing in Energon. That would bring you cubes of cash and transform your wealth to an optimal, prime scenario.

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

literally this big posted:

Hello thread, I have more questions about HSAs:

I'm considering enrolling in a HDHP plan through Kaiser. The bank that would manage my HSA if I just managed it thru Kaiser offers regular Admiral share vanguard funds, but nothing special. Is there any particular benefit to keeping my HSA more 'in-house' thru Kaiser, or should I look for other HSA providers? Vanguard recommends one on their site that offers Institutional class shares. What should I look for in a HSA provider?
I haven't shopped around in a couple years, but I never found anything as good as Admiral share Vanguard funds for investment options. What exactly are you intending to do with the money in your HSA?

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

TITANKISSER69 posted:

I recommend investing in Energon. That would bring you cubes of cash and transform your wealth to an optimal, prime scenario.

:emptyquote:

MJP
Jun 17, 2007

Are you looking at me Senpai?

Grimey Drawer

MJP posted:

If I want to sell funds/ETFs in my brokerage account to do my 2019 and 2020 Roth IRA contributions, should I aim to sell anything that's a long-term or short-term capital loss first and foremost, regardless of how long I've held it?

Soz for the spam, I just wanna make sure I get this sorted and get my contributions in. Seems like it's a yes to selling short term losses first, then long term losses thereafter based on sleeping on it and gut feeling alone.

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literally this big
Jan 10, 2007



Here comes
the Squirtle Squad!

Dik Hz posted:

I haven't shopped around in a couple years, but I never found anything as good as Admiral share Vanguard funds for investment options. What exactly are you intending to do with the money in your HSA?
Use as little of it as possible (I'm young and healthy), and stuff as much money as I can in there while I can. I could theoretically do 2019 + 2020 if I hurry. My current employer doesn't offer medical of any kind and this job will be over by the end of the year, so I'm not certain on what comes next. If I get a job with medical coverage I can drop my HDHP but keep my HSA, right? I'll (hopefully) be covered by my employer one day (hopefully), but getting that money in ASAP seems like a good idea, if I don't have much better options otherwise. The Bronze-level plans around me all seem pretty worthless, and the Silver-level plans have absurdly high premiums for something you're not going to be using 99.9% of the time. Might as well max out a HSA right?

edit: Also here is Vanguard's HSA page, and Health Equity, one of the providers Vanguard links to on that page, offers Institutional shares on a lot of Vanguard funds.

edit 2: though it seems like Fidelity might be the place to go for an HSA.

literally this big fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Apr 21, 2020

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