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I would say it should be a slam dunk for Trump because of all the positives he's got (incumbency, pandemic stimulus "war time" president, solid enthused base) and all the negatives Biden has, but Hillary ran a remarkably awful campaign. She was campaigning to get a super-majority and didn't even visit purple swing states because she just assumed she'd automatically win them against Trump. In theory if Hillary just ran the campaign the same and actually campaigned in swing states everything would be different now, and if Biden learnt that lesson he should theoretically be able to walk into office. But Dems have always been able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Apr 18, 2020 19:17
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Pleasant Friend posted:I would say it should be a slam dunk for Trump because of all the positives he's got (incumbency, pandemic stimulus "war time" president, solid enthused base) and all the negatives Biden has, but Hillary ran a remarkably awful campaign. She was campaigning to get a super-majority and didn't even visit purple swing states because she just assumed she'd automatically win them against Trump. Does speaking for 7 minutes and then leaving count as visiting purple states? That's all he was really capable of before covid, and I don't see him doing better than that after covid. Maybe surrogates can campaign for him, but I wouldn't think that that works as well.
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Apr 18, 2020 19:36
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the_steve posted:The DNC leads wanted Bernie gone and did everything short of outright abolishing the primaries in order to make it happen, there's no ifs ands or buts about that.
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Apr 18, 2020 19:38
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Having many candidates participate in primaries is good optics: it legitimizes the perception that the party is a democratic institution serving and taking into consideration the opinions of constituents. Starting with a large pool and whittling it down over the course of primaries is supposed to generate the impression that the party and voter base are solidifying their collective opinion and reaching consensus as to an ideal candidate. We haven't reached that outcome, though, because no genuine compromise has taken place and the DNC put their finger on the scales too visibly.
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Apr 18, 2020 19:51
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Internet Janitor posted:Having many candidates participate in primaries is good optics: it legitimizes the perception that the party is a democratic institution serving and taking into consideration the opinions of constituents. This. Plus they wanted to cast a wide net because they were hoping that if they threw enough Centrists at the wall that one of them would stick as "more popular than Bernie." That's why they had a different flavor of the month early on as the media and the party elite tried to figure out which horse to back.
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Apr 18, 2020 20:00
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Cerebral Bore posted:Except literally every time in the past 40 years when someone has run a campaign based on "I'm not the other guy" it's failed completely. 40 years? You can go back to 1948 and the highly unpopular Truman who beat Dewey, who was overtly running an “I’m not Truman, vote for me!” campaign. In fact, Truman was so unpopular everyone everywhere just assumed Dewey would win; this is how you ended up with the famous “Dewey Wins!” headlines in morning papers, despite him losing.
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Apr 18, 2020 20:07
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ZombieLenin posted:40 years? You can go back to 1948 and the highly unpopular Truman who beat Dewey, who was overtly running an “I’m not Truman, vote for me!” campaign. In fact, Truman was so unpopular everyone everywhere just assumed Dewey would win; this is how you ended up with the famous “Dewey Wins!” headlines in morning papers, despite him losing. its hilarious how quickly truman set the new coalition on a path to its demise by being a pouty little pisser about anything
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Apr 18, 2020 20:09
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ZombieLenin posted:40 years? You can go back to 1948 and the highly unpopular Truman who beat Dewey, who was overtly running an “I’m not Truman, vote for me!” campaign. In fact, Truman was so unpopular everyone everywhere just assumed Dewey would win; this is how you ended up with the famous “Dewey Wins!” headlines in morning papers, despite him losing. Dewey's campaign barely mentioned Truman and he did have ambitious policies, which Truman exploited by calling a special session of Congress so the (much more conservative) GOP-controlled chambers could pass them, and when they didn't Truman attacked them as do-nothing. Truman was calling the Republicans fascists and said that communists were hoping they would win because they would bring on another depression. Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Apr 18, 2020 |
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Apr 18, 2020 20:45
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Internet Janitor posted:Having many candidates participate in primaries is good optics: it legitimizes the perception that the party is a democratic institution serving and taking into consideration the opinions of constituents. I have to agree that the way you said it should happen would be the most reasonable way of doing things. Having all the centrist candidates drop out a day before super tuesday and endorse the fourth place candidate is another way 
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Apr 18, 2020 20:47
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Ague Proof posted:Dewey's campaign barely mentioned Truman and he did have ambitious policies, which Truman exploited by calling a special session of Congress so the (much more conservative) GOP-controlled chambers could pass them, and when they didn't Truman attacked them as do-nothing. Truman was calling the Republicans fascists and said that communists were hoping they would win because they would bring on another depression. He didn’t have to mention Truman. His campaign specifically avoided any reference to anything political—the man spent months speaking in platitudes—because his campaign was trying to avoid making mistakes and was banking on the, “I am not that guy” sentiment to win him the election. Thus, despite out polling Truman everywhere—Dewey lost his rear end. Edit It doesn’t loving matter if you do it Dewey’s way, or Hillary’s “hurrrr Trump,” if you don’t have policy positions that form a compelling narrative, other than “Trump is extremely terrible, vote him out at all costs,” you aren’t likely to win. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Apr 18, 2020 |
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Apr 18, 2020 21:14
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ZombieLenin posted:
But THIS time, the guy is extra bad so it will definitely work
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Apr 18, 2020 21:23
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Haven't polls starting to show people actually recognizing how badly Trump is handling the pandemic? That's the one thing that gives me, um, "hope" that Biden can defeat Trump. Of course, that depends on Biden's ability to keep those negative feelings in people's heads after the crisis may have passed, and that he won't poo poo himself at debates against the guy who at can at least sundown confidently.
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Apr 18, 2020 21:42
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Trump is loving this up at every opportunity, but Biden is doing literally nothing in response to the pandemic. At this point, Trump has taken every position on C19. Whatever a voter's opinion on the response is, Trump has stated and pushed for it.
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Apr 18, 2020 21:48
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I do think if someone can win on “I’m not the other guy”, it’s against Trump in 2020, and a lot of that will be helped by the virus. If Trump had a “good” economy it would be a lot harder if you were pushing that plus “we need to go back to normal”
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Apr 18, 2020 21:56
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bobjr posted:I do think if someone can win on “I’m not the other guy”, it’s against Trump in 2020, and a lot of that will be helped by the virus. If Trump had a “good” economy it would be a lot harder if you were pushing that plus “we need to go back to normal” In order to run AGAINST someone you have to do the barest minimum of "hey, this guy is loving up, here's how, and here's what I'll do better". Biden isn't doing any of that, at all. He has no plans, no response, no speeches full of hope and inspiration. Even people who despise Trump have no reason to vote for him, not even bad reasons. People can easily be lied to (or lie to themselves) that what a candidate says is more important than the actions of their past, but Biden literally gives them nothing to even pretend about. He's just poo poo. Taffer fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Apr 18, 2020 |
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Apr 18, 2020 22:29
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Electoral history aside, I think we're entering new territory here with a candidate for country leadership who can barely complete full sentences, while at the same time we're being told he's the responsible choice.
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Apr 18, 2020 22:35
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moths posted:Trump is loving this up at every opportunity, but Biden is doing literally nothing in response to the pandemic. he didn't do nothing. He has been having 2800 dollar campaign livestreams. Thats something right?
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Apr 18, 2020 22:40
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bobjr posted:I do think if someone can win on “I’m not the other guy”, it’s against Trump in 2020, and a lot of that will be helped by the virus. If Trump had a “good” economy it would be a lot harder if you were pushing that plus “we need to go back to normal” Have Trump’s polls changed much in the last six weeks?
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Apr 18, 2020 22:42
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If folks want to discuss Biden or the effectiveness of him or his campaign that's fine but to me the claims Bernie was again fleeced by the DNC strike me as rather ridiculous. I'm not disputing that Bernie has had it rough but for him publicly appear and endorse Biden without any mention of the primary process - which he did criticize publicly in 2016 - to me ends the debate. Looking at it a different way you really believe Bernie who's largely popular because he's a true incorruptible politician for the common would run for a second time as a Democrat? After getting shafted the first time? Even after working with the DNC Chair Tom Perez to restructure the primary? Why would he do that? He's got more than enough support to run as an independent. The way I see it, he ran and lost. Later generations have been born being spoon fed that socialism is dangerous and scary their whole entire lives. The DNC consciously picked Biden over Bernie. Even if it was the wrong choice.
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Apr 18, 2020 23:01
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Tab8715 posted:If folks want to discuss Biden or the effectiveness of him or his campaign that's fine but to me the claims Bernie was again fleeced by the DNC strike me as rather ridiculous. The rest of us aren't threading the needle between, "private organization who in court claims the ability to rig their primary if they want" and "The DNC consciously picked Biden over Bernie" and somehow coming to the conclusion that this primary was fair.
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Apr 18, 2020 23:52
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Tab8715 posted:If folks want to discuss Biden or the effectiveness of him or his campaign that's fine but to me the claims Bernie was again fleeced by the DNC strike me as rather ridiculous. I konw I talk about Nomiki Konst a lot but she tells a story from when they were working out the primary process when she was on the unity reform commission. The Bernie camp didn't get very much of their concessions they wanted and the ones they got were extremely watered down. Personally I feel like its okay that Bernie endorsed Biden. He said he was going to do so if he didn't win. This is what losing looks like. The biggest problem is our media. Can anyone really believe that anyone to the left of reagan will win a national election with the media and the DNC situated as it is?
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Apr 18, 2020 23:52
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I'm less annoyed with Bernie endorsing at all so much as the timing. He was obviously asked to do so to distract from the Tara Reade story, and if he believes she deserves to be heard, part of that is allowing her a news cycle. But it's whatever at this point.
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Apr 19, 2020 00:16
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Tab8715 posted:If folks want to discuss Biden or the effectiveness of him or his campaign that's fine but to me the claims Bernie was again fleeced by the DNC strike me as rather ridiculous. How many individual elements need to be rigged for you to agree that the primary was rigged? Because we have, on video, the Iowa caucuses being deliberately manipulated to hand the win to Buttigieg. Is that not enough? If that doesn't meet your internal threshold, what amount of rigging is required for you to agree that it was rigged?
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Apr 19, 2020 00:19
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Trabisnikof posted:The rest of us aren't threading the needle between, "private organization who in court claims the ability to rig their primary if they want" and "The DNC consciously picked Biden over Bernie" and somehow coming to the conclusion that this primary was fair. There are things in the primary I don't particularly care for but at the same time I don't believe Bernie was cheated out of the nomination. In 2016 he publicly complained but all I see of him now is stressing for party unity.
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Apr 19, 2020 00:26
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Taffer posted:In order to run AGAINST someone you have to do the barest minimum of "hey, this guy is loving up, here's how, and here's what I'll do better". Biden isn't doing any of that, at all. He has no plans, no response, no speeches full of hope and inspiration. Even people who despise Trump have no reason to vote for him, not even bad reasons. This is simply not true at all. I mean it's kinda dumb because Biden doesn't currently have a position in the government, and this will all essentially be over by the time Biden takes office if he wins, so not like he even *could* do anything. But regardless, you only think he has literally no plans or policies because you stick your head in the sand. Literally just go type in google "biden covid plan" and read it yourself, because i'm not going to spoon feed it to you. Also google "Biden's policies" as well, because he definitely has those too. In fact, the public option plan polled better than Bernie's medicare for all did. Some of you guys are riding this "biden evil" train so hard that you can't even imagine that anything good could come from him. I'm no fan of Biden, there are MANY MANY people I would have preferred over him including Bernie. But the world is hardly as black and white as some of you make it out to be, and I 100% believe a Biden presidency would be less harmful than a Trump presidency, and he could fix some of what has broken(like the Biodefense council that Trump dismantled). I doubt he'll win though.I don't think it's a slam dunk for Trump like some of you, but still I give Trump the edge.
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Apr 19, 2020 00:39
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https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1251571445248843777
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Apr 19, 2020 00:41
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Tab8715 posted:There are things in the primary I don't particularly care for but at the same time I don't believe Bernie was cheated out of the nomination. In 2016 he publicly complained but all I see of him now is stressing for party unity. That's because Bernie knows that if he doesn't play ball, it will hurt other progressives like AOC. The DNC is going to try their damndest to shiv the Tlaibs and the AOCs and the rest of them, Bernie is doing his damndest to mitigate that by not giving the Dems any ammo. Don't get me wrong, they'll fabricate it and outright lie anyways, but, Bernie is still just doing what he can to try to keep from sticking a fork in his actual allies.
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Apr 19, 2020 00:52
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Joe Biden officially backs trump re-election bid?
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Apr 19, 2020 00:53
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Some of your best work yet. Lol imagine if this was a real tweet, with a Dem candidate who is a dementia patient being kept in isolation from the public, and this was his team's comms strategy? lol that would be wild
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Apr 19, 2020 00:57
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the_steve posted:That's because Bernie knows that if he doesn't play ball, it will hurt other progressives like AOC. So, why not run as an independent?
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Apr 19, 2020 01:13
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Because he doesn't want Republicans to win elections.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:15
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Ague Proof posted:Because he doesn't want Republicans to win elections. So, he can't beat Biden and Trump in an election? Why not?
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Apr 19, 2020 01:17
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Tab8715 posted:So, he can't beat Biden and Trump in an election? Why not? Much as I would love this to be true, he wouldn't because he would not get a majority of the electoral votes, op
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Apr 19, 2020 01:19
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Tab8715 posted:So, he can't beat Biden and Trump in an election? Why not? Tab8715's avatar text posted:This poster is an endless babbling font of misinformed "just asking questions" noise. Do not bother answering or correcting, they won't retain the information two pages from now.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:22
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Bernie can't win the primary against Hilary or Biden. He can't run as an independent. He can't beat Trump and Biden. He can't speak out about the corruption that prevented him from getting the nomination. It seems incredibly odd to me that no matter what Bernie does he's always stuck.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:24
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Apogee15 posted:Literally just go type in google "biden covid plan" and read it yourself, The link is right here. Now, some quick questions: How much of this plan is Biden publicly advocating for? How many of the details do you think he'd be able to recall, if pressed? How much of this was just written by his staffers with minimal input or consultation by Biden, and how much do you trust him to advocate for these measures given his history?
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Apr 19, 2020 01:26
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I think it's quite telling the moment anyone asks for additional details on DNC Collusion against Bernie and it's quickly spun into - Well, why do you like Biden?  No one likes Biden. At all really. But that's not the point.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:33
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Tab8715 posted:I think it's quite telling the moment anyone asks for additional details on DNC Collusion against Bernie and it's quickly spun into - Well, why do you like Biden? Somfin posted:How many individual elements need to be rigged for you to agree that the primary was rigged?
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Apr 19, 2020 01:43
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The Biden shills and Democrat apologists actually manage to make me like the party less, which is not a thing I thought possible. Smug "What rigging?" is straight up trolling.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:49
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Look, just because every individual state primary was rigged and every individual voting site was rigged and every individual vote was manipulated, doesn't mean the gestalt entity of the Primary was rigged! Common sense, people! Tab8715, I would put it to you that compromising even one vote in even one state primary is sufficient to say that the entire primary was rigged. The same way that an individual vote being manipulated invalidates an election; if there's three people voting and the people controlling it change just one of their votes, that voting process is now entirely controlled by the people doing the manipulation, and the voting process is just cover for them to make the decision they'd already made. It doesn't matter if there's a hundred million votes, changing even one of them makes that election invalid.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:58
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