|
saintonan posted:In two days it's going to be 20 bucks again with nothing changing, though. The -$40 is meaningless unless you were dumb enough to try to wait until the last day to unfuck yourself. homer simpson holding pumpking futures into november, basically
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 00:29 |
|
|
Grouchio posted:I'm wondering if the fiscal crisis will feel more like a recession in Blue states and more like a depression in Red states? (Better testing and/or prepping from blue states a factor?) almost all of it is differences in state industries oil state? lol u dead tourism state? lol old people state (florida)? lol
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:02
|
|
|
Oil bear market could last through early 2021 I guess but WTI futures out to 2023 top out at $41. This is probably how to get rich.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:03
|
|
|
Lote posted:In two days...It will be $15 going to 0. Sure, but it's not likely to go negative again until next month's hot potato game.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:03
|
|
|
saintonan posted:In two days it's going to be 20 bucks again with nothing changing, though. The -$40 is meaningless unless you were dumb enough to try to wait until the last day to unfuck yourself. It's meaningful in that some poor bastard out there paid forty bucks a barrel to NOT take delivery of otherwise free west texas intermediate. It's meaningful in that it this situation has literally never happened before in oil futures. It's meaningful in that it gives you a pretty strong signal about what storage in Cushing OK is looking like right now! And on top of that it's super interesting...
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:07
|
|
|
MetaJew posted:Someone tell me why I'm an idiot for considering buying something like Jan 2022 $4c on USO? You're not an idiot for considering calls but ETNs are not the same as regular ETFs. They're more like those 3x leveraged ETFs. Their value is determined by the contracts they hold, not the underlying commodity. The fund could literally go to zero which wouldn't happen to something like SPY(with the exception of thermonuclear war).
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:10
|
|
|
Agronox posted:It's meaningful in that some poor bastard out there paid forty bucks a barrel to NOT take delivery of otherwise free west texas intermediate. It's meaningful in that it this situation has literally never happened before in oil futures. It's meaningful in that it gives you a pretty strong signal about what storage in Cushing OK is looking like right now! Yeah. It also screws up loss calculations for futures trading. Technically, $USO can now trade with a negative NAV which would be a huge oopsie for an ETN. lostleaf posted:The fund could literally go to zero which wouldn't happen to something like SPY(with the exception of thermonuclear war). The fund could go into the negative. If it had been holding May contracts today, the fund would be in the negative.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:12
|
|
|
If it goes into negatives do they pay us to buy USO?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:15
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1252358188231323648
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:16
|
|
|
lostleaf posted:You're not an idiot for considering calls but ETNs are not the same as regular ETFs. They're more like those 3x leveraged ETFs. Their value is determined by the contracts they hold, not the underlying commodity. The fund could literally go to zero which wouldn't happen to something like SPY(with the exception of thermonuclear war). Okay, that's sort of what I thought. The analogy I had in my head was that it was similar to a 3X leveraged ETF, like you said. Is there a better ETF to gamble on something like this with LEAPs? Someone in the thread has mentioned Exxon (XOM) and Shell (RDS.B , I think?) as potentially good investment opportunities, I think, but obviously those aren't ETFs.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:17
|
|
|
stonks go up now
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:18
|
|
|
Can we put the keystone pipeline in reverse? Let’s start pumping that oil into the ground.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:18
|
|
|
Foma posted:Can we put the keystone pipeline in reverse? Let’s start pumping that oil into the ground. *extremely oprah voice* AND YOU GET A DINOSAUR AND YOU GET A DINOSAUR pro trading tip: I did the last of my Roth 2019 buys today so market will crash again shortly.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:25
|
|
|
Had my best day in a while today. Closed out GILD puts and IWM puts for 10% and got FLIR and CRWD calls. AMZN covered puts continue to do great. Making a lot of progress in undoing the bundle I lost on SPY puts!
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:34
|
|
|
lol trump just said negative oil was due to short sellers getting squeezed I can’t make this up
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:37
|
|
|
pmchem posted:lol trump just said negative oil was due to short sellers getting squeezed https://youtu.be/5mUAjcuSogM And then Donald trump comes in...
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:45
|
|
|
MetaJew posted:Okay, that's sort of what I thought. The analogy I had in my head was that it was similar to a 3X leveraged ETF, like you said. I am waiting to go all in on XOM, I am just waiting for the entry point. I don’t think we’ll see the lows from last month for a while, I’m hoping that we will see them again, though
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:55
|
|
|
futures are up 0.5%, as the market desperately tries to convince itself that today was just a fluke
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2020 23:59
|
|
|
Foma posted:Can we put the keystone pipeline in reverse? Let’s start pumping that oil into the ground. Not only is this a fun joke to think about, but it is also a completely valid strategy... if a producer actually had the capital (lol) to do it. You could absolutely inject into depleted reservoirs around the country.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:12
|
|
|
poisonpill posted:I am waiting to go all in on XOM, I am just waiting for the entry point. I don’t think we’ll see the lows from last month for a while, I’m hoping that we will see them again, though Do you have a particular entry point in mind? Are you buying shares or LEAPs?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:35
|
|
|
DoubleT2172 posted:If it goes into negatives do they pay us to buy USO? https://twitter.com/petridishes/status/1252324519144022017?s=19
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:43
|
|
|
Somewhat related to oil futures shenanigans - these lagging indicators are going to get more and more insane. Manheim reports used car index fell 11.8% in the first two weeks of April. For comparison, the total loss in the index in the entirety of the 2008/09 crisis was like 11.5% Last year there were 4.3 million leases due - close to 12k/day. Best estimate I can find for 2020 is in the neighborhood of 4 million car leases or around 11k/day due. There are already reports of dealerships refusing to accept end of lease vehicles as retail lot and wholesale lots are full. In April new car incentives were up to 25% off the cost of the same cars from march and wholesale pre-owned markets are completely frozen even if the auction house is allowed to be physically open. I don't think the auto finance or rental companies have any true idea of what the gently caress to even do. Your dealer network is refusing the accept cars that you own and there's no place to sell them. It costs money to store them. I guess you offer to let the person keep the car temporarily for free? If I had a parking lot I'd be reaching out and finding out how much I could get paid to take delivery on cars right now. Edit: For info - ALLY, ATLC, CACC are the auto finance companies that I know about that are tradable. I really don't have a side here. I guess I'm bearish but considering the current positive correlation between asset prices and unemployment I'm just boggled. A large farva fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Apr 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:46
|
|
|
looking forward to getting paid $40/ford to take delivery
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:48
|
|
|
enraged_camel posted:futures are up 0.5%, as the market desperately tries to convince itself that today was just a fluke Are you the CNBC headline writer ?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:49
|
|
|
I have two spots in my driveway (man my previous house I could have stored 20+). Someone fire up a goon car storage network.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 00:57
|
|
|
fougera posted:Are you the CNBC headline writer ? i actually thought about that too after i posted
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:07
|
|
|
Buy the Dip Red states* are going to be back open for business by Friday! *10% of GDP
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:11
|
|
|
It appears to me that a couple hotels in my area are parking cars in their unused lots.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:11
|
|
|
quote:"This is a great time to buy oil. We'd get it for the right price," Trump said at a coronavirus task force news briefing on Monday night. "Nobody's ever heard of negative oil before." quote:"Much of it has to do with short sellers. If you look a month into the future, I think it is $25 or $28 a barrel," Trump said at a daily briefing on Monday. "If you take look at it, you will see it is more of a financial thing than an oil situation... It's largely a financial squeeze." Jesus Christ. We really do live in the dumbest timeline.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:14
|
|
|
Artonos posted:It appears to me that a couple hotels in my area are parking cars in their unused lots. Any idea why?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:16
|
|
|
FreelanceSocialist posted:Jesus Christ. We really do live in the dumbest timeline. there's a reason he bankrupts everything he touches
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:17
|
|
|
enraged_camel posted:there's a reason he bankrupts everything he touches Wasn’t there some analysis comparing what he’d be worth if he’d dumped however much he’d inherited into some index fund vs what he’s actually worth? And it turned out he was actually an atrocious businessman even though real estate is generally a license to print money.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:24
|
|
|
Artonos posted:It appears to me that a couple hotels in my area are parking cars in their unused lots. Hit Man posted:Any idea why? in the evenings, for The Big Sporting Events that are going on in the daytiome, for All Those People WOrking Who Have Nowhere To Park
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:25
|
|
|
Hit Man posted:Any idea why? To make money? The one next to my office is leasing out parking spots in their underground to people who live nearby who'd normally park on the street or pay for the municipal garage. Dirt cheap too - like $1 a day. gay picnic defence posted:Wasn’t there some analysis comparing what he’d be worth if he’d dumped however much he’d inherited into some index fund vs what he’s actually worth? And it turned out he was actually an atrocious businessman even though real estate is generally a license to print money. Yeah - a bunch have been done and zero paint him in any kind of favorable light.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:25
|
|
|
soooo SHOP is doing pretty well.  A while ago I moved some money from my unregistered account into my registered retirement savings RRSP and I was lazy so I did it via transferring a number of shares of an equity there, as it happens SHOP. I forgot about selling the equities and rebalancing and I saw SHOP was on a bit of a run so I just left it. Anyway now I'm up 250% on SHOP alone. Thanks laziness.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:29
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:Wasn’t there some analysis comparing what he’d be worth if he’d dumped however much he’d inherited into some index fund vs what he’s actually worth? And it turned out he was actually an atrocious businessman even though real estate is generally a license to print money. Real estate is leveraged buying though. It would more be like if you took the worlds worst retail investor and set him on only leveraged etf daytrading. One position or market implosion and you're wiped out.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:29
|
|
|
So Saudi Aramco filed for an IPO in December 2019, but only made 1.5% of the shares public. The Saudi Government then thought it would be a good idea to start a price war to flush out competitors. Unfortunately they decided to do all this right before a global pandemic that essentially halved global oil demand. Has the situation gotten away from them, or are the Saudi's still playing games in an attempt to edge out competition? I would think -$38 oil is probably not conducive to their national budgets and political order.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:30
|
|
|
Goodpancakes posted:Not only is this a fun joke to think about, but it is also a completely valid strategy... if a producer actually had the capital (lol) to do it. You could absolutely inject into depleted reservoirs around the country. You thinking about America’s salt domes? https://www.clui.org/newsletter/winter-2015/salt-domes-gulf-coast
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:30
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:So Saudi Aramco filed for an IPO in December 2019, but only made 1.5% of the shares public. The Saudi Government then thought it would be a good idea to start a price war to flush out competitors. Unfortunately they decided to do all this right before a global pandemic that essentially halved global oil demand. They did it during the pandemic. They initiated the war March 8. This was triggered by Russia not cutting production which was in response to OPEC cutting production because of the pandemic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Russia%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_oil_price_war
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 00:29 |
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:So Saudi Aramco filed for an IPO in December 2019, but only made 1.5% of the shares public. The Saudi Government then thought it would be a good idea to start a price war to flush out competitors. Unfortunately they decided to do all this right before a global pandemic that essentially halved global oil demand. Saudi oil doesn't sell for -$38 https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:44
|
|