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SPY chart looks like an earthquake trace
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Apr 23, 2020 17:57
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Wow. I had already gotten rid of my GILD puts but somehow that stupid company managed to make me more money by triggering all my SPY put limit orders for the day.
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Apr 23, 2020 17:57
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Would you believe my last month has been like that, only with riskier trades? Sheesh.
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Apr 23, 2020 17:59
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pmchem posted:that's an incredible algo overreaction to an outcome that was already considered extremely likely by the scientific community Spike allowed to me dump a few errant stocks I had worth of SPXS for a profit. Today's dinner is on GILD!
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Apr 23, 2020 18:00
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Wow. I had already gotten rid of my GILD puts but somehow that stupid company managed to make me more money by triggering all my SPY put limit orders for the day. Trying to learn this, could you share strike price, expiration date, and limit mark? # of contracts? You sold these not bought? Inner Light fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Apr 23, 2020 |
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Apr 23, 2020 18:03
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pmchem posted:that's an incredible algo overreaction to an outcome that was already considered extremely likely by the scientific community b...b...but i thought everything was already priced in! 
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Apr 23, 2020 18:04
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We go up bigly on hopeful news and trade only slightly down when it doesn't pan out... everyone desperately wants this to be over. But we are literally worse off than where we were a month ago. No better treatments, no real containment procedures, vaccine still a year away (at best).
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Apr 23, 2020 18:06
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If I had put those puts I posted in at 2828 instead of 2830 I'd be sitting on +110k 
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Apr 23, 2020 18:07
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Baddog posted:We go up bigly on hopeful news and trade only slightly down when it doesn't pan out... everyone desperately wants this to be over. But we might go back to work anyway. That plus the occasional fed infusion and congressional stimulus might keep this rally going. I don't believe it and have some SPXS still. But you have to respect the risk that as bad as the world is, the stock market isn't necessarily correlated to what you're talking about.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:10
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Omerta posted:Fudge, I wanted to buy back puts on GILD when I saw it was up 3% but got stuck on a bunch of calls. This was a bit mistimed. I got in around 78, so I was instantly down like 40%. It clawed back to almost even, then reversed at EOD. Down 15% or so and plan to sell tomorrow, whether for gain or loss. I got a little greedy today. I was up in a bunch of positions that I liked and planned to hold into earnings. I should have sold at the strong open, then re-entered EOD. Also, the order flow for SPY is interesting. Quite bullish through 5/15, then a lot of June/July puts. Omerta fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Apr 23, 2020 |
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Apr 23, 2020 18:13
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Why the gently caress didn't I buy puts after they expanded their enrollment to 2400 patients and changed their primary endpoint.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:13
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Sepist posted:If I had put those puts I posted in at 2828 instead of 2830 I'd be sitting on +110k Sorry man. Your post also didn't mention my bad if it's obvious, what expiration would you have gone for? 1 DTE?
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Apr 23, 2020 18:13
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Inner Light posted:Sorry man. Your post also didn't mention my bad if it's obvious, what expiration would you have gone for? 1 DTE? 1 DTE. No sense paying extra for longer DTE if I'm only gonna hold them for ~10 minutes e: If we hit 2820 again I'll be looking at a call option with 2830 profit/2815 stop Sepist fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Apr 23, 2020 |
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Apr 23, 2020 18:14
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Inner Light posted:Trying to learn this, could you share strike price, expiration date, and limit mark? # of contracts? At open this morning I placed a limit order for 5x SPY 4/24 $282p at $1.95 and another for 20x SPY 5/15 $200p at $0.25. Those triggered and I then immediately put sell limit orders on them for $2.5 and $0.27 respectively, anticipating them to trigger later this afternoon. That's it. Nothing exciting. Just wanted to grab some quick post-unemployment moneys to throw at something interesting tomorrow or monday. edit: its probably going into more DIS options if the price looks good: 5/15 $100p. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Apr 23, 2020 |
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Apr 23, 2020 18:19
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Baddog posted:We go up bigly on hopeful news and trade only slightly down when it doesn't pan out... everyone desperately wants this to be over. I have read some alarming papers saying we aren't even sure we can come up with a vaccine. We have never successfully formed a vaccine for a coronavirus before.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:20
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cr0y posted:I have read some alarming papers saying we aren't even sure we can come up with a vaccine. We have never successfully formed a vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is the consensus from everyone on my wife's clinical team. They're thinking we might see a minor breakthrough in 6 mos to a year a working vaccine in the near future is highly unlikely.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:22
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Kal Torak posted:Yeah, I think I'll be cautious here as well. It's still 26 days to expiration so there is a lot of time there to find an entry. One other possible trade related to this: the July/August CL spread is about 2.50 right now, but in early May we know, unless they change their portfolio yet again, that USO will be selling a lot of July contracts and buying a lot of August contracts. That might have a larger effect on the market than the normal roll since volume is lower in the back months. So maybe on May 4th do something like short July buy August.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:25
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I'd be cautious of playing Gilead now that the Good News/Bad News cycle has happened. Ultimately they're a pretty solid company with 22B in revenue and only trading at 95B. There's going to need to be something more significant than "this drug works / doesn't work for covid19" to cause much movement and I can't imagine what that news would be. As I'm writing this, GILD is down 6% so be sure to laugh at me when it's down 42% later today and up 69% tomorrow
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Apr 23, 2020 18:26
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Agronox posted:One other possible trade related to this: the July/August CL spread is about 2.50 right now, but in early May we know, unless they change their portfolio yet again, that USO will be selling a lot of July contracts and buying a lot of August contracts. That might have a larger effect on the market than the normal roll since volume is lower in the back months. Good to know. I'll watch that spread as well.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:26
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FreelanceSocialist posted:This is the consensus from everyone on my wife's clinical team. They're thinking we might see a minor breakthrough in 6 mos to a year a working vaccine in the near future is highly unlikely. My doctor parents are hearing the same from their medical community friends. But you never know -- a lot of things suddenly become possible when enough money is thrown at them.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:27
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I honestly feel like day trading options on $SPY when it's seesawing like this is the lowest risk way to play it. With an overall bullish trend (until GILD but if you look at it in the sense of 5d or 10d) if you're picking up 8DTE ATM calls on the dips it feels super easy, given that your dip doesn't turn into a larger downturn which of course is the risk.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:32
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VelociBacon posted:I honestly feel like day trading options on $SPY when it's seesawing like this is the lowest risk way to play it. With an overall bullish trend (until GILD but if you look at it in the sense of 5d or 10d) if you're picking up 8DTE ATM calls on the dips it feels super easy, given that your dip doesn't turn into a larger downturn which of course is the risk. Is the way to play these holding til expiration or having a limit sell once those 8DTE ATM calls appreciate a set amount? Seems like no one in the thread holds til exp and I'm not sure how to do the calculation.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:35
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I think the market may be spooked for the day. There've been a few rally attempts, all met by swift selloffs back to support.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:45
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For $GILD, The coronavirus stuff has really increased relapse rates for drug use so there will likely be a corresponding uptick in Hepatitis C which provides GILD’s main source of revenue.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:50
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Bought some IVZ on the dip from a divvy cut. Hoping to turn it around on a bounce in a couple days. Got out of my SPY calls at .18 right before the GILD crash so up 300 on first trade of the day and down 240 on the second plus fees. More painful that I own a lot of GILD but remdesivir will have to not cure coronavirus 4 more times before I’m back to my cost basis and what are the odds of it not working 4 times in a row.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:53
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Watching GILD scramble to convince people that this outcome isn't actually a bad thing is pretty funny. "Uh... people are inappropriately characterizing the results... and uh... it might still help sick people... somehow... yeah... hey! Where are you going? Come back! I'm not done talking!"Tokyo Sex Whale posted:...but remdesivir will have to not cure coronavirus 4 more times before I’m back to my cost basis and what are the odds of it not working 4 times in a row. Whats the definition of insanity again?
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Apr 23, 2020 18:54
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You can at least clean your fishtank with it, right? It’s not completely useless
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Apr 23, 2020 18:55
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Watching GILD scramble to convince people that this outcome isn't actually a bad thing is pretty funny. "Uh... people are inappropriately characterizing the results... and uh... it might still help sick people... somehow... yeah... hey! Where are you going? Come back! I'm not done talking!" The drug is not going to be a big moneymaker period. If they show an effect with a number needed to treat greater than 10 (aka you need to prescribe the medication 10 times for it to help 1 person) doctors won’t really prescribe it. The higher that number needed to treat the more useless this drug is
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Apr 23, 2020 18:58
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Cuomo just reported the results of an antibody study and found that out of a randomized sample of 3000 people, ~14% of those tested had antibodies. This number jumps to 21% in NYC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html Based on these numbers, you could infer: - 2.7 million people have been infected in NYS, versus 257k tested positive, a 10.50x multiplier. - 1.8 million people have been infected in NYC, versus 142k tested positive; a 12.67x multiplier. That means that the mortality rate would be: 0.566% for NYS 0.609% for NYC The mortality seems very similar to influenza, but of course is much more contagious and has a higher percentage of the population infected. This seems realistic and kind of gives you a a better idea of future impact. If 20% of NYC has it from two months of outbreak, you could arguably expect the next wave to be a bit less intensive since 1/5 of the population was knocked out of the contagion. It also begs the question on where we will be six months from now. They need to continue this type of testing to get more accurate data.
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Apr 23, 2020 18:59
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Lote posted:The drug is not going to be a big moneymaker period. If they show an effect with a number needed to treat greater than 10 (aka you need to prescribe the medication 10 times for it to help 1 person) doctors won’t really prescribe it. The higher that number needed to treat the more useless this drug is Yeah - and this isn't the first time it's proven to be relatively useless, either, right?
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Apr 23, 2020 18:59
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A potion this expensive and difficult to obtain is surely very powerful, we just have to figure out how to unlock its powers
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Apr 23, 2020 19:03
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Just keep in mind that Gilead is not Remdesivir: The Company They sell $16 billion in HIV/AIDS drugs a year, and they're in the S&P 500
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Apr 23, 2020 19:03
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Just keep in mind that Gilead is not Remdesivir: The Company Sure - but the recent pop in their share price is all Remdesivir. I don't think Gilead is going to go under or anything crazy. My plays center around the market over-reacting to the trial.
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Apr 23, 2020 19:07
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Inner Light posted:Is the way to play these holding til expiration or having a limit sell once those 8DTE ATM calls appreciate a set amount? Seems like no one in the thread holds til exp and I'm not sure how to do the calculation. No absolutely not holding till exp. Not only would theta wreck you but are you really going to buy hundreds of shares of SPY? I bought a couple 281 strike calls and sold them 5 min later for a small profit (because I'm at work right now). We discuss this a lot in the thread but with any leveraged position like 8DTE options you absolutely do not want to be setting stop losses and walking away, you should be 100% focused on them and if they drop, selling at a loss by limit order at wherever you've mentally decided to cut losses when you bought in.
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Apr 23, 2020 19:12
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Cuomo just reported the results of an antibody study and found that out of a randomized sample of 3000 people, ~14% of those tested had antibodies. This number jumps to 21% in NYC. Nope. Tests like this are nearly meaningless. The article points out why: quote:The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.” Basically, this study (which is preliminary, and has not been peer-reviewed) suffers from significant selection bias. Another example of this bias is the recent Stanford study that estimated that 2% of the US population has already been infected "under the radar". Columbia explained why that is very likely not the case.
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Apr 23, 2020 19:20
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Is there a decent COVID thread on the forums? Trying to search on my phone but it sucks at the moment.
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Apr 23, 2020 19:22
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Is there a decent COVID thread on the forums? Trying to search on my phone but it sucks at the moment. the d&d one is pretty good: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3915397&pagenumber=537#lastpost
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Apr 23, 2020 19:24
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Cheesemaster200 posted:This seems realistic and kind of gives you a a better idea of future impact. If 20% of NYC has it from two months of outbreak, you could arguably expect the next wave to be a bit less intensive since 1/5 of the population was knocked out of the contagion. You're assuming the 20% of the population who already had it, are both no longer infectious, and cannot get it again; these are both not safe assumptions.
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Apr 23, 2020 19:24
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Also, the mortality rate for seasonal influenza is estimated to be around 0.1%, so even in your best case scenario of around 0.5%, that is five times worse than the flu for deaths alone (and that would be WITHOUT healthcare system becoming overwhelmed).
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Apr 23, 2020 19:27
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Sepist posted:1 DTE. No sense paying extra for longer DTE if I'm only gonna hold them for ~10 minutes And just checking myself here, what is the incentive for you to trade the option on /ES instead of long /ES underlying in this case? Decreased risk, leverage?
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Apr 23, 2020 19:28
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