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double nine
Aug 8, 2013

I'm getting exhausted by the EU states never not making the most greedy short-sighted decisions.

I wish I could still get angry at the neoliberal chokehold over European politics.

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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
The lack of leadership and vision are just so exhausting.

I guess to Rutte's credit, it's actually rather difficult to oppose a man who refuses to formulate a vision for the future because like, what are you even trying to refute here? What are you opposing, concretely? That in itself should obviously be disqualifying to even a mildly informed and intelligent electorate, but welp.

Skinnymansbeerbelly
Apr 1, 2010

Private Speech posted:

the united states treats overly indebted states (not bankrupt as bankruptcy is technically not legal, so they just have to cut everything to the bone instead no matter what) even more harshly then the EU, except noone gives a gently caress because they are usually flyover or periphery ones. Or Michigan. Or because the US is garbage.

The Case for Allowing U.S. States to Declare Bankruptcy

You don't have to go back all the way to 2016, Mitch is floating it again: McConnell Says States Should Consider Bankruptcy, Rebuffing Calls for Aid

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


EU is gonna not do 'rona or Eurobonds, but try to plug the hole with ECB Magic + the European budget. This is about that second part and last night's Eurosummit:

quote:

EU national leaders on Thursday directed the European Commission to draw up plans for a new long-term financial blueprint for the bloc that would also drive an economic recovery from the coronavirus. One could say EU leaders avoided giving the Commission any guidance on the recovery fund — not on its concrete size, not on how it’s going to be funded exactly, not on how and in which form it will disburse money. But look more closely and you’ll see that big things happened on Thursday, for single members of the European Council and the EU itself. Here are Playbook’s nine takeaways.

1. Now that went fast and smoothly. EU leaders were in a nonaggressive mode, and certainly not in the mood to pull an all-nighter — as they have done so very often during former crises. That’s because the European Central Bank had taken the most pressing urgency out of the meeting: The ECB bought them time on Wednesday, taking some potential stress off banks.

2. It’s going to be really bad. In a bombshell revelation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told leaders the bank’s most severe scenario in its own economic forecasts is the eurozone economy shrinking by 15 percent, four EU officials on the videoconference told POLITICO. If that worst case comes to pass, it would be twice as bad as the International Monetary Fund’s recent forecast of a 7.5 percent contraction in the currency area. (In 2009, the first full year that the financial crisis to hit, we had a contraction of 4.5 percent.)

3. Big problem, big solution. We’re going to see the biggest Multiannual Financial Framework ever. “Thanks to the legal guarantee by member states, the Commission will be able to raise funds that will then be channeled through the European budget into the member states,” von der Leyen told reporters. “Our current estimates of the needs lead us to think that an Own Resources ceiling of around 2 percent of GNI for two or three years instead of the current 1.2 percent will be required.”

4. What is 2 percent of a potentially much, much lower economic output worth? A lot — politically.

5. Grants or loans? It’s a far-reaching question on principle whether money handed out has to be repaid, even at some point in the far future. The EU has to “find the right balance between grants and loans,” von der Leyen said — thus saying there will be grants, or free money for the Commission to distribute. Note that the aforementioned clumsy leak from the Commission’s services foresaw, just one day earlier, loans only, no grants at all.

6. Mo’ money, mo’ power. For the Commission and its president, there were (many) worse days during the crisis than Thursday. Putting the EU budget at the center of the EU’s crisis response means adopting solutions that are very different from the last economic and financial crisis — it means relying on what they call community method, ordinary legislation, or involvement of the European Parliament, not intergovernmental solutions.

7. Giuseppe Conte’s moment. The Italian prime minster managed to negotiate a line into European Council President Charles Michel’s summary of the meeting. Officials said the recovery fund is now called “needed and urgent” thanks to Conte. He put himself, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, at the forefront of the grants faction: Grants “are essential to preserve the single market, a level playing field, and to ensure a symmetric response to a symmetric shock,” said Conte during the “closed-door” virtual meeting, officials on the call told Playbook. Long story short: Conte has something to sell at home.

8. Revenge is so sweet. A growing number of EU governments say there won’t be any emergency cash for businesses registered in tax havens. It has been almost impossible to build consensus for tough action on tax justice at an EU level, but the pandemic is now giving some finance ministers an opportunity to earmark money for companies that have not fled to a fiscal paradise. Some members of that club — say Rome — are thinking loudly about whether to add — say, the Netherlands — to their own lists of tax havens alongside Panama and the Cayman Islands.

9. One more corona winner: Jeppe Tranholm Mikkelsen will stay on as secretary-general of the Council. Several diplomats said the decision was taken Thursday and is awaiting formal confirmation in a written procedure.

(yes I know, Politico has a garbage writing style)

Also the 2% won't happen - the Germans and Dutch will block that too and it'll all be negotiated down to 1.5%.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Hahaha yup. Proven right by the FT in under 30 minutes:

quote:

Agreeing a reconfiguration of the MFF that includes the recovery fund will be difficult given the significant political differences among member states. There were particularly acute divisions during the summit over the form any aid emerging from the fund should take. 

France, Italy and Spain led demands for grants to stricken economies, whereas Ms Merkel insisted that any funding borrowed on the markets must ultimately be paid back. There were “limits” on what kind of aid could be offered, she told leaders, adding that grants “do not belong in the category of what I can agree”.

However, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, told reporters that there needed to be “real budgetary transfers”, adding that if regions were allowed to fall the whole of Europe would fall as well. 

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Absolutely hate seeing Macron of all people being right all the time. Union of idiots.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
My impression is Macron is a glory hound, and recognises to gain glory you actually have to accomplish something.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Macron's talk on the EU has been consistently good. But you know, talk is cheap. He hasn't accomplished poo poo and he's never been willing to actually put his foot down.

Angry Lobster
May 16, 2011

Served with honor
and some clarified butter.
Of course ot has to be paid back, we are doing business after all.

Ghost Leviathan posted:

My impression is Macron is a glory hound, and recognises to gain glory you actually have to accomplish something.

Technichally correct, the best kind of correct.

Kassad
Nov 12, 2005

It's about time.

Orange Devil posted:

Macron's talk on the EU has been consistently good. But you know, talk is cheap. He hasn't accomplished poo poo and he's never been willing to actually put his foot down.

Yeah, because it turns out all this nice poo poo he's talking about would require spending money :monocle: and he's actually as averse to that as the rest of them.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Orange Devil posted:

Macron's talk on the EU has been consistently good. But you know, talk is cheap. He hasn't accomplished poo poo and he's never been willing to actually put his foot down.

Macron is a very "do as I say, not as I do" guy, so for EU politic we get his mostly correct discourses but if he had the power to actually decide by himself EU policy, it'd likely still be the same poo poo we have.

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE
Politico did an article about the Germans, especially why Germany is such a problem in the Eurozone. Ultimately it argues that Germany will have to concede to bail out Italy in the end:

Politico posted:

The most convincing argument for bold German action is that Italy isn’t Greece. That is, it’s too big to fail. German industry is heavily engaged in the country, as are German banks. So whether it wants to or not, Germany may have to save Italy to save its own economy.
In that sense, the economic interdependency of steel and coal industrial nations that defined the European project from the beginning is what will save the EU and the Eurozone in the end. Hopefully.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Orange Devil posted:

Macron's talk on the EU has been consistently good. But you know, talk is cheap. He hasn't accomplished poo poo and he's never been willing to actually put his foot down.

Put his foot down and do what?

THE BAR
Oct 20, 2011

You know what might look better on your nose?

Owling Howl posted:

Put his foot down and do what?

Élan.

mortons stork
Oct 13, 2012
It's good to know that, in the face of a historically unprecedented crisis, the EU has finally decided on action that is equivalent to kicking the can down to the heat death of the universe.
Of course, if they are ever questioned on it they will release a statement that explains how actually, the sub-sub-sub-committee was tasked to work closely with the subappellate upper circuit commission, in order to draft a document to submit to the 4th floor council, for amendment and later approval so that we may have a workable proposal within the next 5 years or so and it's just how you get stuff done in liberal-land and can you please come back to the real world :rolleyes:

Dawncloack
Nov 26, 2007
ECKS DEE!
Nap Ghost

mortons stork posted:

It's good to know that, in the face of a historically unprecedented crisis, the EU has finally decided on action that is equivalent to kicking the can down to the heat death of the universe.
Of course, if they are ever questioned on it they will release a statement that explains how actually, the sub-sub-sub-committee was tasked to work closely with the subappellate upper circuit commission, in order to draft a document to submit to the 4th floor council, for amendment and later approval so that we may have a workable proposal within the next 5 years or so and it's just how you get stuff done in liberal-land and can you please come back to the real world :rolleyes:

Let's celebrate that come next Europe day!

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Owling Howl posted:

Put his foot down and do what?

Let's not pretend Paris doesn't have weight to throw around in these EU meetings if it really wanted to. If Macron was willing to play hardball over Eurobonds I'm not saying we'd have them by now, but we also wouldn't have the Dutch government saying they are "dead and buried".




Also, there must be a joke in there somewhere on it not being the first time Germany had to bail Italy out in Greece but I can't quite make it work.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Orange Devil posted:

Let's not pretend Paris doesn't have weight to throw around in these EU meetings if it really wanted to. If Macron was willing to play hardball over Eurobonds I'm not saying we'd have them by now, but we also wouldn't have the Dutch government saying they are "dead and buried".

Yeah, this is the real key; if France was willing to go hard it would undoubtedly get the support of Italy, Spain and 1/3rd to 1/2 of the Council. But so far that's not the case.

I do say so far because we are seeing some movement, glacial though it may be.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Also to the governments of Southern Europe, please designate the Netherlands as a tax haven to force my government to change their dumb corporate tax laws so that my country is forced to stop enabling corporations stealing tax revenues from the EU plus a whole lot of developing African nations. Thanks.

Randler
Jan 3, 2013

ACER ET VEHEMENS BONAVIS
Just make every IC transaction with a creditor in a country with oversea territories non-deductible for corporate income tax purposes and you have killed off 90 percent of all tax avoidance schemes that concern income taxes.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

Randler posted:

Just make every IC transaction with a creditor in a country with oversea territories non-deductible for corporate income tax purposes and you have killed off 90 percent of all tax avoidance schemes that concern income taxes.

that'd go against the spirit of free trade and free movement of capital!

Angry Lobster
May 16, 2011

Served with honor
and some clarified butter.

Orange Devil posted:

Also to the governments of Southern Europe, please designate the Netherlands as a tax haven to force my government to change their dumb corporate tax laws so that my country is forced to stop enabling corporations stealing tax revenues from the EU plus a whole lot of developing African nations. Thanks.

Let's be honest here, would it really matter whatever Portugal, Spain or Greece did in that case?

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

double nine posted:

that'd go against the spirit of free trade and free movement of capital!

Good, since those things are the root of the problem.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

His Divine Shadow posted:

Good, since those things are the root of the problem.

*faints*

(for the record, i am firmly in favor of 1955 - style capital controls)

An insane mind
Aug 11, 2018

I had another 'how can you be this dense' moment with my best friend. He's against the Eurobonds because it shouldn't be 'we rich' paying for the poor.

I'm like, dude you make about 35k a year, you're a single parent and you live beyond your means. You're not part of the elite...

And we're talking about rich CEOs paying their goddamn share and the EU just printing money.

But then he recently started trading stocks to become fiscally independent. I think I lost him. The thing is , he's a PoC and he's seen first hand how the government screws over the poor but he just thinks because he's not struggling (in his mind) no one is.

100YrsofAttitude
Apr 29, 2013




Junior G-man posted:

Yeah, this is the real key; if France was willing to go hard it would undoubtedly get the support of Italy, Spain and 1/3rd to 1/2 of the Council. But so far that's not the case.

I do say so far because we are seeing some movement, glacial though it may be.

You often hear that France and Germany call the shots in the EU, and I get why Germany is there, and I sort of understand why France is too, but what sort of clout does France genuinely have that Italy or Spain don't?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

100YrsofAttitude posted:

You often hear that France and Germany call the shots in the EU, and I get why Germany is there, and I sort of understand why France is too, but what sort of clout does France genuinely have that Italy or Spain don't?
Mushroom clout

NihilCredo
Jun 6, 2011

iram omni possibili modo preme:
plus una illa te diffamabit, quam multæ virtutes commendabunt

100YrsofAttitude posted:

You often hear that France and Germany call the shots in the EU, and I get why Germany is there, and I sort of understand why France is too, but what sort of clout does France genuinely have that Italy or Spain don't?

I can't speak for Spain, but in Italy a common concern is that the political instability hurts us in negotiations, at least when those negotiations happen at the executive level.

A French president or German chancellor, once elected, can safely be counted on to be around for five years to implement whatever policy they push. An Italian prime minister is highly likely to be replaced within one year by a different one (or the same one, in Conte's case :v: ) who will be supported by different parties and have drastically different policies. If he opposes something, it's tempting to just stonewall him for a few months and hope the next one is more friendly.

100YrsofAttitude
Apr 29, 2013




A Buttery Pastry posted:

Mushroom clout

Huh. Yeah I guess now that the UK is out, France is the only country in the EU with that sort of military capacity. They even have an aircraft carrier! (HOLY poo poo, I just looked it up and the US has 20 loving aircraft carriers today, in 2013 they had 19 vs the World's 12. For as much as Trump has completely pissed away the US's influence around the world, that sort of military gap insures American dominance in some shape or form for a while doesn't it?)

Angry Lobster
May 16, 2011

Served with honor
and some clarified butter.

100YrsofAttitude posted:

You often hear that France and Germany call the shots in the EU, and I get why Germany is there, and I sort of understand why France is too, but what sort of clout does France genuinely have that Italy or Spain don't?

Spain's too politically unstable to do anything and it's leaders can't really project strength in the core of the EU when the country's economy is still reeling from the last crisis and they know they will depend on the EU in the future, even if it hurts them at the same time. It's kinda sad, because the population has always been blindly pro-EU, but that tendency is changing rapidly. I'm still surprised at how many people, even worker class, still support the austerity discourse around here, poor self-conscious bastards.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


https://twitter.com/PES_PSE/status/1253283059643940865?s=20

Pick your favourite former-left-now-neolib-shitbag-party.

Kassad
Nov 12, 2005

It's about time.

100YrsofAttitude posted:

Huh. Yeah I guess now that the UK is out, France is the only country in the EU with that sort of military capacity. They even have an aircraft carrier! (HOLY poo poo, I just looked it up and the US has 20 loving aircraft carriers today, in 2013 they had 19 vs the World's 12. For as much as Trump has completely pissed away the US's influence around the world, that sort of military gap insures American dominance in some shape or form for a while doesn't it?)

They need the economic power to sustain their military-industrial complex, but yeah. If you just look at military expenditure as a very rough indication of military power, the US spends more than the 15 next wealthiest countries. They spend over twice as much on their military as China does on theirs.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

100YrsofAttitude posted:

Huh. Yeah I guess now that the UK is out, France is the only country in the EU with that sort of military capacity. They even have an aircraft carrier! (HOLY poo poo, I just looked it up and the US has 20 loving aircraft carriers today, in 2013 they had 19 vs the World's 12. For as much as Trump has completely pissed away the US's influence around the world, that sort of military gap insures American dominance in some shape or form for a while doesn't it?)

much like in the 1940s, when japan clinged to their big battleships that were effectively just giant expensive targets for crappy planes and got clowned by a bunch of converted merchant ships carrying said lovely planes. in current times carriers are that, giant expensive targets for cheap missiles carried by converted cargo trucks

they are incredibly intimidating though, and they work incredibly well against people whose most expensive war tech is three 1960s soviet export planes (see: every neocolonial client state)

there's an *extremely* good reason why despite incessant rattling, there hasn't been an iran war yet. losing a carrier or two would immediately blow up the currently ruling party, even if through some miracle the war was then somehow won. so clearly it'll be done by a dem president/congress, not trump :v:

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

100YrsofAttitude posted:

You often hear that France and Germany call the shots in the EU, and I get why Germany is there, and I sort of understand why France is too, but what sort of clout does France genuinely have that Italy or Spain don't?

France is in the P5, has nukes, and has kept overseas territories in all oceans. These factors mean that it's a member of more international clubs than Italy or Spain. France hosts more international organizations than Italy and Spain combined. There's also the issue of language, as it's an indirect relay for influence. French is still an international language of diplomacy, Spanish is too, to a lesser extent, but Italian doesn't have much. Geographically, France is the hub of Western Europe, occupying a central position between the UK, the Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, and Spain. That gives France a position as the middle-ground between the Germanic North and the Latin South.

Italy and Spain also suffer from political instability, a problem that France got rid off with the Fifth Republic (during the Fourth Republic it was just as instable).

100YrsofAttitude posted:

Huh. Yeah I guess now that the UK is out, France is the only country in the EU with that sort of military capacity. They even have an aircraft carrier! (HOLY poo poo, I just looked it up and the US has 20 loving aircraft carriers today, in 2013 they had 19 vs the World's 12. For as much as Trump has completely pissed away the US's influence around the world, that sort of military gap insures American dominance in some shape or form for a while doesn't it?)

Only half of those 20 are real aircraft carrier. Or, to put it in other words: if the USA have 20 aircraft carriers, France has 4, Japan has 4, the UK, Italy, India, China, Australia, and even Egypt have 2 each, Spain, Thailand, South Korea have one each. Turkey is getting one, India and China are busy building more. That's 20 to the rest of the world's 23.

Now if you only count real aircraft carriers, then the USA have 10 while the rest of the world has just one (France's).

100YrsofAttitude
Apr 29, 2013




Cat Mattress posted:

France is in the P5, has nukes, and has kept overseas territories in all oceans. These factors mean that it's a member of more international clubs than Italy or Spain. France hosts more international organizations than Italy and Spain combined. There's also the issue of language, as it's an indirect relay for influence. French is still an international language of diplomacy, Spanish is too, to a lesser extent, but Italian doesn't have much. Geographically, France is the hub of Western Europe, occupying a central position between the UK, the Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, and Spain. That gives France a position as the middle-ground between the Germanic North and the Latin South.

Cool I knew all this to some extent but it helps to see it spelled out. I guess it wasn't one of the Europe's great powers for nothing.


Cat Mattress posted:

Only half of those 20 are real aircraft carrier. Or, to put it in other words: if the USA have 20 aircraft carriers, France has 4, Japan has 4, the UK, Italy, India, China, Australia, and even Egypt have 2 each, Spain, Thailand, South Korea have one each. Turkey is getting one, India and China are busy building more. That's 20 to the rest of the world's 23.

Now if you only count real aircraft carriers, then the USA have 10 while the rest of the world has just one (France's).

Whether "real" or not the difference is still pretty obscene.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Truga posted:

there's an *extremely* good reason why despite incessant rattling, there hasn't been an iran war yet. losing a carrier or two would immediately blow up the currently ruling party, even if through some miracle the war was then somehow won. so clearly it'll be done by a dem president/congress, not trump :v:
I told them, the Iranians, they're not gonna respect China Cuomo, not like when I was president. I was an amazing president, am I right folks? Just a tremendous president. And now these big beautiful ships, they're completely destroyed, because the Iranians don't respect Cuomo. I knew Cuomo in New York, everyone knew he didn't have balls.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Carriers are the gunboats of the 21st century. In the sense of gunboat diplomacy.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Macron is absolutely a terrible "liberal" centre-right politician in a domestic French context. But in a European context despite that hes still far, far more reasonable than the vast majority of schwarze null obsessed politicians from Germany or the Netherlands. And/or the far right really terrible leaders in the East like Orban or Law and Justice in Poland. Thats why he always comes across so comparatively reasonable in wider-European matters so frequently.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Because it's occasionally nice to post Good News:

quote:

French court upholds order limiting Amazon deliveries amid coronavirus risk
Online shopping giant says it is ‘perplexed’ by the outcome.


PARIS — A French court upheld a ruling Friday restricting Amazon deliveries to essential products only until a risk assessment is carried out, but reduced fines for breaches and extended the list of products that can be delivered.

"The court of appeal confirms [the April 14 ruling] that requires Amazon France Logistique to carry out, in association with representatives of workers, an evaluation of professional risks linked to the COVID-19 epidemic in all its warehouses," the Versailles court of appeal said in a statement.

Amazon has temporarily closed its warehouses in France in response to the original ruling, arguing the order was too ambiguous.

An Amazon spokesperson said the company remains “perplexed” by the result of the appeal. “We are working rapidly to evaluate the implications for our sites, as well as for our French employees, French customers and for the French SMEs who rely on Amazon to grow their businesses.”

The case pits the e-commerce giant against French unions SUD Solidaires. In mid-April, a lower court found that Amazon “disregarded its obligation of safety and prevention of health [risks] toward its employees" and ordered the company to restrict deliveries to essential items such as food and medical supplies until a risk assessment was completed.

The Friday ruling confirms the findings of the lower court and orders Amazon to restrict its activity in the next 48 hours until a risk assessment of health and safety measures is carried out.

However, the court of appeal extended the list of allowed items to include, among other things, high tech and IT goods. The court also significantly reduced the fines in case of non compliance from €1 million to €100,000 per unauthorized item "received, prepared and/or shipped."

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Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Given how reliant France, Spain, Italy are on their service sector, and that nobody loving knows if the holiday July/August season will even be possible ...

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1254130558050934784?s=20

Strap yourselves in everyone.

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