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Dapper_Swindler posted:i'll wait to see it hit harder on MSM, because so far they havent touched it much. Its hitting fox, they can't ignore it forever. The longer it is ignored the more damage we'll see. This may be one of the most damaging defeats the dems ever have.
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Apr 25, 2020 03:50
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StratGoatCom posted:Its hitting fox, they can't ignore it forever. The longer it is ignored the more damage we'll see. This may be one of the most damaging defeats the dems ever have. who knows. i guess we will see. i am not as pessimistic yet.
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Apr 25, 2020 03:51
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Dapper_Swindler posted:thats some galaxy brain poo poo that forgets the last 2 years or so of elections but whatever. you do you. The last two years of elections didn’t have Trump on the ballot, and you had candidates that were tailored to the districts they ran in. We didn’t ask voters in Alabama to vote for AOC, or run Joe Manchin in Tlaib’s district. Trump’s approval numbers were hitting 45 this week, and that is not counting Rasmussen. Even in swing states, Biden’s head to head polling is fairly weak for this stage of the race. If he is barely up 6 points before the media covers the rape story, and in the middle of Trump mishandling the corona crisis, where do you think those numbers will be in September or October, when the crisis is in the tail end?
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Apr 25, 2020 03:53
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I just meant "them" since sadly I'm not a part of Dem leadership. Honestly replacing Biden probably wouldn't be a big deal. It'd be chaotic but we live in chaotic times. Also it'd be super easy for him to save face and say he had a little health scare and it wasn't right to run for president if he wasn't sure he could finish the term. Easy peasy. He's got very few enthusiast supporters and is basically running as a generic Democrat, so swapping for another generic Dem wouldn't make many waves. It wouldn't be good, but... They could probably do Liz or Kamala easy enough, even though I don't think they're great candidates for the general. If their backs are against the wall they might settle for Bernie and figure that they can control him through Congress and courts. Most of his executive orders wouldn't really gently caress with their interests, I don't think. Or they could pick a weird dark horse candidate from the backbench. I don't think it would be smart, but theoretically you could pull Sherrod Brown or an equivalent. Who knows. The world 3 months from now will probably be very different, for better or for worse, than today.
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Apr 25, 2020 03:54
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StratGoatCom posted:Its hitting fox, they can't ignore it forever. The longer it is ignored the more damage we'll see. This may be one of the most damaging defeats the dems ever have. If the Dems are defeated abortion and gay marriage will both likely be finished in the next 5 years
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Apr 25, 2020 03:54
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StratGoatCom posted:The chuds will advance regardless, and the biden metoo train may have no brakes. Short of a last minute dropout, a superdelegate save or biden having a fatal stroke, 2020 is probably lost. There is no one they could replace Biden with who would win. No candidate is palatable to all sides - especially if they are just handed the nomination.
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Apr 25, 2020 03:56
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TyrantWD posted:The last two years of elections didn’t have Trump on the ballot, and you had candidates that were tailored to the districts they ran in. We didn’t ask voters in Alabama to vote for AOC, or run Joe Manchin in Tlaib’s district. i dont even think the crisis will be over by then, honestly . the south is opening up stupid early and thats gonna cause a gently caress ton of spikes and keep lockdowns in place in most smarter states. more people will die and we will probably have the big second wave soon after. this poo poo isnt going away any time soon. and trumps polls are still in the low 40s as of this week.
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Apr 25, 2020 03:56
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Fart Amplifier posted:If the Dems are defeated abortion and gay marriage will both likely be finished in the next 5 years Thanks centrist voltron maneuver!
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Apr 25, 2020 03:57
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i dont even think the crisis will be over by then, honestly . the south is opening up stupid early and thats gonna cause a gently caress ton of spikes and keep lockdowns in place in most smarter states. more people will die and we will probably have the big second wave soon after. this poo poo isnt going away any time soon. and trumps polls are still in the low 40s as of this week. Even with the south opening early, I don’t think we will be in lockdown or have any disruptions in the fall. We will just have a fairly fat tail end of the curve with 100-200 people dying a day, and major concerts postponed until 2021. Either way, the corona virus hasn’t made a dent in Trump’s approval numbers, and as things get back to normal, he might even inch up to high 40s.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:01
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TyrantWD posted:There is no one they could replace Biden with who would win. No candidate is palatable to all sides - especially if they are just handed the nomination. The only reason anyone accepts Biden is to beat Trump so why would they make waves over a replacement? They'll just post on Facebook that the switch is undemocratic but anyway suck it up and vote blue no matter who.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:03
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PerniciousKnid posted:The only reason anyone accepts Biden is to beat Trump so why would they make waves over a replacement? This thread is not representative of most voters.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:10
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PerniciousKnid posted:The only reason anyone accepts Biden is to beat Trump so why would they make waves over a replacement? They'll just post on Facebook that the switch is undemocratic but anyway suck it up and vote blue no matter who. Biden is popular.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:11
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Fart Amplifier posted:If the Dems are defeated abortion and gay marriage will both likely be finished in the next 5 years That's fine with them, doesn't stop the corporate money train
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Apr 25, 2020 04:12
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Otteration posted:Shakespearean aside: Alas, we may be hosed, Puck! keep me out of this i'm phase shifting until next january
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Apr 25, 2020 04:14
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Crows Turn Off posted:This isn't true. People like Biden. He is popular among the Democratic base, aside from just being accepted as the candidate to beat Trump. thats true. as i said. i know alot of family who are gonna vote for biden for various reasons, including conservative leaning ones and independents. PerniciousKnid posted:The only reason anyone accepts Biden is to beat Trump so why would they make waves over a replacement? They'll just post on Facebook that the switch is undemocratic but anyway suck it up and vote blue no matter who. Biden is pretty loving popular. ST and such proved that. people want the obama days back for better or worse.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:15
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TyrantWD posted:Even with the south opening early, I don’t think we will be in lockdown or have any disruptions in the fall. We will just have a fairly fat tail end of the curve with 100-200 people dying a day, and major concerts postponed until 2021. Uh yeah it has, it increased to 45% approval briefly but has dropped back down to 43% with 52% disapproval over the past two weeks (re: 538's tracker). By comparison Obama was at +1, Bush +3, and Clinton +13.5. Meanwhile, the only Presidents who are even close to Trump negative approval at this point are H.W. Bush at -7 and Carter at -10, who are both notable for, you know, being the only two elected Presidents to lose reelection in the past 50 years. It's easy to forget but Trump is still deeply unpopular with much of the country, and that's going to hurt him significantly at the polls.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:15
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Do recall, a second wave favors the chuds, as they won't halt in the face of such.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:17
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Right we often compare the polls to the ones four years ago when Hillary was beating Trump in the polls but it’s a very different beast running against a loathed incumbent president compared with the most hated woman in america vs. that tv boss from that show you like
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Apr 25, 2020 04:18
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No one knows what's going to happen, no matter how stridently they claim otherwise. We are through the goddamn looking glass, and there's nothing in the rule book that says a dog can't be President.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:19
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VitalSigns posted:That's fine with them, doesn't stop the corporate money train I wasn't making a point about what's fine with them or not
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Apr 25, 2020 04:19
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StratGoatCom posted:Do recall, a second wave favors the chuds, as they won't halt in the face of such. I seem to remember people saying the same thing about Wisconsin and I think we all know how that turned out for the GOP 
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Apr 25, 2020 04:19
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Also Clinton for comparison was fourteen points under for favorability at this point of the race (good lord), while Biden's averages are slightly positive, about even. Might go up, might go down over the next few months, but if nothing else there's certainly a lot more people who like Biden and dislike Trump than there are the reverse (And Biden is probably slightly more favorable among people who don't like either)
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Apr 25, 2020 04:20
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Delthalaz posted:Right we often compare the polls to the ones four years ago when Hillary was beating Trump in the polls but it’s a very different beast running against a loathed incumbent president compared with the most hated woman in america vs. that tv boss from that show you like yeah. i still think alot of indies/moderates voted trump because they did indeed HATE clinton way more. StratGoatCom posted:Do recall, a second wave favors the chuds, as they won't halt in the face of such. well, this wave it probably not helping the older ones that much right now. and it wont then.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:20
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Delthalaz posted:Right we often compare the polls to the ones four years ago when Hillary was beating Trump in the polls but it’s a very different beast running against a loathed incumbent president compared with the most hated woman in america vs. that tv boss from that show you like
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Apr 25, 2020 04:20
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StratGoatCom posted:One, biden has a probable metoo train bearing down, two, trump has incumbency, three he is behind where hill was now. "he has incumbency" doesn't mean much when his incumbency consists of being a dumb motherfucker who has run just about everything into the ground and there's a literal pandemic going on. EDIT: Herbert Hoover didn't win a second term based on "incumbency"
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Apr 25, 2020 04:21
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StratGoatCom posted:One, biden has a probable metoo train bearing down, two, trump has incumbency. unfortunatly, i believe the first one when it happens. because so far, its not outside twitter and parts of the right.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:22
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Dick Trauma posted:No one knows what's going to happen, no matter how stridently they claim otherwise. We are through the goddamn looking glass, and there's nothing in the rule book that says a dog can't be President. Biden has already promised to nominate an African-American woman to the Supreme Court, but I think the real winning move would be to promise to make a dog his Secretary of State.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:22
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. i still think alot of indies/moderates voted trump because they did indeed HATE clinton way more. I think there was also a factor of people voting third party, not voting, or protest voting for Trump because nobody thought he was actually going to win—and that certainly is not going to be happening to nearly the same degree this year.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:23
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Angry_Ed posted:"he has incumbency" doesn't mean much when his incumbency consists of being a dumb motherfucker who has run just about everything into the ground and there's a literal pandemic going on. i mean trump just told people we should be injecting loving cleaner into our bodies because he looked at a loving chart. he aint helping himself right now.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:24
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If politics and the national media from 2015-2020 have taught us anything, it's that nobody knows what the gently caress is going to happen. Except it is usually the stupidest possible outcome so we'll end up with something like Buttigieg vs. Pence where Pete wins by being more overtly racist. But Pence loses only narrowly, he's fun and relatable and the candidate to have a beer with because he made a joke in an interview about enjoying a little "horseplay" (*winks suggestively*) with his wife who he calls Mother.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:27
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Craig K posted:keep me out of this i'm phase shifting until next january It's too late. He's dead Jim.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:27
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StratGoatCom posted:One, biden has a probable metoo train bearing down, two, trump has incumbency. Yeah the “metoo train” is a huge unknown and is entirely an unpredictable factor. No idea what happens there. The incumbency thing I would say actually doesn’t help him since he has nothing to run on. He’s a lying blow hard scumbag whose been on tv embarrassing himself every day for years and the economy is in the shitter. e: Angry_Ed posted:"he has incumbency" doesn't mean much when his incumbency consists of being a dumb motherfucker who has run just about everything into the ground and there's a literal pandemic going on.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:28
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For what it’s worth, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose reelection in nearly thirty years.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:31
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Delthalaz posted:Yeah the “metoo train” is a huge unknown and is entirely an unpredictable factor. No idea what happens there. I don't think the Tara Reade allegations will hurt Biden much, but it will reveal how insincere some of the "believe all women" crowd is. Like Alyssa Milano. Uncle Joe is just a little touchy-feely is all. He's always been like that. It's weird but just let him be president, okay?
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Apr 25, 2020 04:33
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Pants Donkey posted:For what it’s worth, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose reelection in nearly thirty years. Precisely, and biden between one credible rape allegation - and I know of at least one more anon one, and I've heard of a real wildcard of a possible Epstein* related one, statistically, there is likely worse to come on that front, given known poo poo like swimming naked in front of female secret service folks pointedly. *I know, but that is really the exploding critfail dice possible here.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:37
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean at this point, i am not sure who it will even be. its probably not gonna be bernie if biden drops/dies as much as id like it to be. no matter who it is, it will be some messy shitshow that most folks dont want at this point. 99% likelihood it would be whoever he had selected as his vice presidential candidate
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Apr 25, 2020 04:38
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Delthalaz posted:Yeah the “metoo train” is a huge unknown and is entirely an unpredictable factor. No idea what happens there. I don’t think the metoo story it’s all that unknown in how it will play out. Once the media stops being 24/7 corona virus, it will hurt Biden - a lot. More than enough to sink him. Conservative media will be on it non stop, and the mainstream media will be all over it because they love a scandal, and Trump staying in office is good for business. Trump basically hasn’t lost a voter, Biden will be bleeding them left, right and center.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:39
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StratGoatCom posted:Precisely, and biden between one credible rape allegation - and I know of at least one more anon one, and I've heard of a real wildcard of a possible Epstein* related one, statistically, there is likely worse to come on that front, given known poo poo like swimming naked in front of female secret service folks pointedly. i dont trust the counterpoint article one because biden wasn't in the senate for weeks and such after his wife and kid died and that article acts like he was doing it less than a week after on the rotunda. also i have heard nothing about an epstein one.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:39
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i dont trust the counterpoint article one because biden wasn't in the senate for weeks and such after his wife and kid died and that article acts like he was doing it less than a week after on the rotunda. also i have heard nothing about an epstein one. I ain't seen it directly, but given that Epstein was able to bag others in those circles, I can't dismiss it straight out.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:41
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Trump went to Epstein parties and he’s president of the United States.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:42
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