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Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

Bushido Brown posted:

I still can't understand how a state bankruptcy would work. States can already control their own budgets. Really it seems like it would be an attempt to discharge debts. But that would run headlong into a contracts clause violation.

I really don't think there's any constitutional way to allow it.

you can’t this naive

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Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

No bid COVID posted:

Lean supply chains are a form of leverage. Not in the financial system per se but in the real economy. We know what leverage does when you have a crisis.

Yes, it makes prices go down.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
pst: the magna carta was basically Rich Person Protection, the Document




(the manga carta, meanwhile, states that the english translations of japanese comics must still be printed right-to-left)

nikosoft
Dec 17, 2011

ghost in the shell, but somehow much worse
College Slice

animist posted:

did the rich get hosed over more in past depressions? like at what point did the govt decide that they had to be protected at all costs

Our government explicitly exists to protect the property of the wealthy.

No bid COVID
Jul 22, 2007



animist posted:

did the rich get hosed over more in past depressions? like at what point did the govt decide that they had to be protected at all costs
The rich got hosed over more than they do today. Still much better off to start out rich, but financial bailouts are largely a late 20th century and later thing. AFAIK there weren't bulk bailouts in 1907, 1929, 1937, or more recently in 73/74, and I think if anyone got hammered by 87 it was financiers and the rich, but ultimately that was fairly small.

Gazpacho
Jun 18, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Slippery Tilde

Bushido Brown posted:

I still can't understand how a state bankruptcy would work. States can already control their own budgets. Really it seems like it would be an attempt to discharge debts. But that would run headlong into a contracts clause violation.
under the contracts clause a state can't grant debt relief to itself, but it can seek relief through the federal government

Jazerus
May 24, 2011


it was the s&l crisis that led finance to take over the federal government's financial regulatory/policy agencies. this was mostly with an eye toward never being prosecuted for financial misdeeds, but had the "happy" side effect of biasing all government discourse about finance and the economy toward the worship of Number

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

animist posted:

did the rich get hosed over more in past depressions? like at what point did the govt decide that they had to be protected at all costs
in 2008 the rich got even richer

in the GD, the astors, morgans, rockerfellers, mellons, etc were very much attached to their head and very much attached to ungodly vast sums of wealth by the end of. although many rich did lose, but it'd be like bezos going from 60 billion to 4 billion. yeah techniaclly losing 54 billion is alot on paper but it's still 4 billion buckaroos.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Gazpacho posted:

under the contracts clause a state can't grant debt relief to itself, but it can seek relief through the federal government

just get into massive mutual debts with a neighboring state and forgive both of them, generating money out of thin air, bing bang boom so simple

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



god it is loving mindblowing how stupid this whole thing is. Like we built this this way.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-to-subsidize-100-of-salaries-at-small-companies

quote:

Japan is working on a subsidy to ensure that temporarily idled small-business employees receive 100% of their wages during the current state of emergency, Nikkei has learned.

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare plans to use an existing employment adjustment subsidy, which helps enterprises seeing no choice but to temporarily lay off workers continue to pay them, at least in part.

As things stand, laid-off workers at companies that have halted operations are entitled to at least 60% of their regular pay. The government shoulders up to 90% of this to keep them from being dismissed outright, with the company chipping in the other 10%.

Many employers try to save money by sticking to the 60% minimum and asking the government to pay 90% of it.

The offer will be more generous going forward. If small companies -- those in the service sector with up to five workers and manufacturers with up to 20 -- are asked by the central or local government to temporarily shutter operations, and they apply for the employment adjustment subsidy, the government will shoulder the full cost as long as the businesses pay 100% of last year's wage levels.

With companies not having to pay anything out of pocket, most will choose the 100% option, the government figures.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government and other localities across Japan have asked restaurants and other businesses to close or shorten hours during the health crisis. The central government's financial support aims to maintain the income levels of workers in these industries.

The subsidy program's parameters will cover 3 million companies and about 10 million employees.

The employment adjustment subsidy has not proved popular so far, partly owing to its complicated paperwork and the roughly one-month wait for processing applications. In the current crisis, just 985 companies had applied in the two months leading up to April 17.

Setting aside that this hasn't actually happened yet and would have to survive being actually passed by the government (legislature?) ...

The underlying assumption has always been that the reason why governments are so stingy with corona-welfare is that any kind of decent program to do any of that would necessarily have to be of such a scale and such a scope that once you do it, it would be just about impossible to remove once people get used to it, similar to arguments about Social Security and M4A and why those things NEED to be universal programs.

So you have governments not doing any welfare at all and hoping to ride-out the pandemic ASAP, or maybe doing a one-time dole-out that's rather small sized with no commitment to a recurring program.

And in the extreme case, you have governments just pushing to "re-open the economy" altogether, again in the hopes that if people are allowed to go back to work, then they will go back to work, and therefore will keep earning money, and therefore there won't be any need to rustle any hierarchical jimmies.

(counter-intuitively, a strong response to coronavirus would have been best: if you can snip the problem in the bud like SK or Taiwan did, no lockdown necessary, therefore no economic shutdown, therefore no need to provided subsistence to people on lockdown)

So if Japan does end up implementing this program as written (10 million employees is a little less than 10% of their population, or over 12% of their adult workforce), what are the chances that this does end up sticking and isn't withdrawn for being too popular?

Armadillo Tank
Mar 26, 2010

Epic High Five posted:

I'm aware lol, the fact that his kid apparently took "these two extra-dimensional beings are totally authorial self-inserts for Frank and his wife" to mean "actually these two are evil robots" is lmfao

Dune -> God Emperor of Dune is a book series I am happy to pitch people as being essential

what?

there are extra-dimensional beings/robot space lords in dune? the frank herbert dune?

I'm aware of all the weird gender and sex stuff he had but that is new to me.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


Lady Militant posted:

the average salary you need to pay rent to live near the university i go to is 25 dollars an hour and the homeless crisis keeps getting worse. in response the university is building.....a hotel for the rich parents kids to stay at during homecoming :suicide:

lol this owns my school is doing the same thing, I'm working (past tense now I guess) for like $9 an hour at the arena and they're spending mountains of cash on a new campus hotel

Lady Militant
Apr 8, 2020

The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

Crazycryodude posted:

lol this owns my school is doing the same thing, I'm working for like $9 an hour at the arena and they're spending mountains of cash on a new campus hotel

we go to the same school

uncop
Oct 23, 2010

Pick posted:

The Fed actually did sign in legislation to buy and redistribute food from farms and send it to food banks, they reported on that in the Washington Post today

I must be critically behind the news, sorry about your open financial tyranny where the Federal Reserve has taken on parliamentary functions, is in charge of the popular relief strategy and decided to go with food banks rather than helicopter money.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


Lady Militant posted:

we go to the same school

Oh what's up when the apocalypse is over we should have an awkward goon meetup and just drink a lot without talking to each other

cumshitter
Sep 27, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
i just got a very angry private message and apparently people in this thread dont like money and markets and want me to leave??? i thought this thread was for talking about how much the market owns. i love money. i wish i understood option strategies better. and you guys have been sarcastic the entire time? wow, i feel dumb

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
i am unbelievably offended they didnt send it to me instead

Lady Militant
Apr 8, 2020

The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

Crazycryodude posted:

Oh what's up when the apocalypse is over we should have an awkward goon meetup and just drink a lot without talking to each other

it's going to be so loving wild when hurricane season really gets going

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

cumshitter posted:

i just got a very angry private message and apparently people in this thread dont like money and markets and want me to leave??? i thought this thread was for talking about how much the market owns. i love money. i wish i understood option strategies better. and you guys have been sarcastic the entire time? wow, i feel dumb

cumshitter ur alright

we should prob talk more about like the impending economic doomsday tho

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

I'm glad I didn't get an angry PM, look what it does to people

No bid COVID
Jul 22, 2007



cumshitter posted:

i just got a very angry private message and apparently people in this thread dont like money and markets and want me to leave??? i thought this thread was for talking about how much the market owns. i love money. i wish i understood option strategies better. and you guys have been sarcastic the entire time? wow, i feel dumb
Buy options when ivol is higher than realized, sell options when ivol is lower than realized. Very simple. Look at wallstreetbets for more info

cumshitter
Sep 27, 2005

by Fluffdaddy

anime was right posted:

cumshitter ur alright

we should prob talk more about like the impending economic doomsday tho

one time the trump thread was jokingly turning against me and saying my back should be against the wall and i said, "please, dont kill me before i give you the password and login to my company's financial management software so you can find more rich people"

No bid COVID posted:

Buy options when ivol is higher than realized, sell options when ivol is lower than realized. Very simple. Look at wallstreetbets for more info

i actually do understand it in a general sense as both a gamble and a hedge against losses but the different strategies and graph shapes employed are just something im not going to have a real grasp on unless i actually did it for a living

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

cumshitter posted:

i just got a very angry private message and apparently people in this thread dont like money and markets and want me to leave??? i thought this thread was for talking about how much the market owns. i love money. i wish i understood option strategies better. and you guys have been sarcastic the entire time? wow, i feel dumb

They are just jealous of number

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry
number only go up

point me at those nasty little starcraft lurkers trying to op my favorite capital under management sink, and i will vore them until they become mind controlled and rolled over into my roth 404b number fund

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

All I did for the past decade was investigate rich people, poor people literally don't have enough money to launder in any reportable aggregate lol

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
what about the poor people structuring their $100,000 outflows?????

cumshitter
Sep 27, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
i used to work in predatory lending until i drank an entire bottle of vodka one night because i hated my job and the company and didnt think it should even exist and just decided not to show up any more

when i got my current job i kept pissing off the bond guys by referring to things in lending terms.

"so YTM is like APR and the total interest paid assuming no payments toward principal but it gets paid to you?"

"It's not a loan, cumshitter."

"uh, yeah, it totally is. we sold all the loans we originated to guys like you and then they sold them to other people"

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
So how quickly is that 460 billion or whatever added into the small business fund going go run dry.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Telsa Cola posted:

So how quickly is that 460 billion or whatever added into the small business fund going go run dry.

yes

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Telsa Cola posted:

So how quickly is that 460 billion or whatever added into the small business fund going go run dry.
i expect it already has

each boeing plane and jp morgan bank is a small business

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
Jesus that is some fast response time.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Telsa Cola posted:

Jesus that is some fast response time.

as fast as the money is gone :twisted:

also friday night motherfuckers, time to :justpost::f5::justpost:

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Telsa Cola posted:

So how quickly is that 460 billion or whatever added into the small business fund going go run dry.

faster than you can say 1099 independent contractor

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

FAUXTON posted:

I don't think it's like most prior depressions, but american elites built a social culture around blurring the difference between saying and doing, and now instead of organizing food distribution from farms that are literally leaving mountains of food on the side of the road they're sharing how pissed they are at the farmer for not also having it hauled into town. Sure maybe at some point the sink of having robots pump your own angry farts back at you and calling it radicalization will fill up and folks will go back into the streets and take what's due them, but put me on the side of expecting everyone to be shocked that this wasn't the moment.
the one thing i disagree big time here is i don't think there's some Great Grand Conspiracy of robot algos encouraging everyone to remain in a perpetual "i'll start the wiki" phase--every person just about to start the wiki independently, all to encourage everyone just to hold on a little longer. you seem to think that there's some grand media conspiracy of Elites manufacturing the breadtube posting2praxis podcasts or whatever just to say hang on a little more it's coming, instead of it being predictable result of many natural factors and just being extremely niche overall.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The idea is to force states to declare bankruptcy and therefore gut their pensions/services...which in turn is going to either prolong the current depression or create a double-dip crisis.

Of course, the outcome of this is going to be, it is only going to make the US weaker in the future.

Shipon
Nov 7, 2005

cumshitter posted:

i used to work in predatory lending until i drank an entire bottle of vodka one night because i hated my job and the company and didnt think it should even exist and just decided not to show up any more

when i got my current job i kept pissing off the bond guys by referring to things in lending terms.

"so YTM is like APR and the total interest paid assuming no payments toward principal but it gets paid to you?"

"It's not a loan, cumshitter."

"uh, yeah, it totally is. we sold all the loans we originated to guys like you and then they sold them to other people"

your posts are good i just maintain an anti-401k stance because i feel stocks are a form of theft from the labor that produces those profits and any system that encourages people to buy them is encouraging them to be complicit in the theft of their wages and of their workers.

you getting a tiny slice of what is stolen from you in the form of tax-advantaged stock holdings doesn't make up for what is taken

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i have a friend considering registering an llc, paying himself one month of salary to get a paper record, then filing for the SBA cash

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

i say swears online posted:

i have a friend considering registering an llc, paying himself one month of salary to get a paper record, then filing for the SBA cash

iirc business had to be started or filed some paperwork or some crap before a certain date to qualify for money faucet stuff

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No Mods No Masters
Oct 3, 2004

I think it’s fine to talk about savings or car or house having in the abstract, but when you start to talk abt or ask advice re the one you have or that you’re getting one you’re telling on yourself. Retain plausible deniability as a car/house/savings haver basically

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