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Byzantine posted:Also the Roman Empire didn't fall from political squabbling, economic trouble or even plague, it was slowly beaten to death by barbarian invasions over a thousand years.
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Apr 25, 2020 18:13
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Atrocious Joe posted:decolonization for UK only looks less dramatic than the fall of the USSR if you're only paying attention to the British islands. And one that isn't done yet, giving Kashmir and Modi and the current coronavirus situation where Hindus get medical treatment and Muslims don't.
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Apr 25, 2020 18:16
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Cowpocalypse posted:and the roman empire didn't completely disappear it just slowly consolidated itself into the vatican The scrap of land granted by a barbarian warlord to a heretic priest? What does that have to do with the Empire?
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Apr 25, 2020 18:18
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chairface posted:And one that isn't done yet, giving Kashmir and Modi and the current coronavirus situation where Hindus get medical treatment and Muslims don't. Is there an analogous long tail for a collapse of US power in this regard? I think one could argue that externally things can only improve for the world as US power shrinks unlike decolonization or the collapse of the eastern bloc where the collapsing power was the only force keeping client states from combusting out of longstanding internal strife.
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Apr 25, 2020 18:29
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LastInLine posted:Is there an analogous long tail for a collapse of US power in this regard? I think one could argue that externally things can only improve for the world as US power shrinks unlike decolonization or the collapse of the eastern bloc where the collapsing power was the only force keeping client states from combusting out of longstanding internal strife. Nature abhors a vacuum as they say
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Apr 25, 2020 18:34
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Lady Militant posted:Nature abhors a vacuum as they say What is the US keeping from happening is what I'm asking? I can only think of examples where we instigate regional or even internal conflict rather than anywhere we're keeping any from each other's throats. The only one that immediately comes to mind is Israel and have a tough time shedding any tears for what happens to the last apartheid state
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Apr 25, 2020 18:37
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LastInLine posted:What is the US keeping from happening is what I'm asking? I can only think of examples where we instigate regional or even internal conflict rather than anywhere we're keeping any from each other's throats. It's not about what the U.S. is keeping from happening; it's about the fact that the U.S. as an outside force is able to insert it's interests where they wouldn't necessarily be a deciding factor. Removing that factor changes all the equations all of an suddenly which causes people to flip out because the paradigm they planned all their poo poo on is gone. Sometimes the flip out is just a diplomatic crisis. Sometimes it's war.
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Apr 25, 2020 18:45
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would the absence of US hedgemony make a Sino-pakistan-indo-war over himalayan water more or less likely
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Apr 25, 2020 19:01
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the us will be revitalized into a technocratic surveillance state dictatorship Colonies will be internal and subjugated to finance capital and consumption managed by Amazon/Walmart scrip Production will be based on prison labor and ameliorated by pinpointed mass media esscapism with the purpose of sowing discord and defeatism while reinforcing the status quo We will rot and die alone and forgotten without the ability to Jack in to the Matrix and run from corporate AIs even once
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Apr 25, 2020 19:07
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LastInLine posted:Is there an analogous long tail for a collapse of US power in this regard? I think one could argue that externally things can only improve for the world as US power shrinks unlike decolonization or the collapse of the eastern bloc where the collapsing power was the only force keeping client states from combusting out of longstanding internal strife. I mean that's a nice argument if it helps you sleep at night, but I don't see much reason to be optimistic about violent upheaval while global fascism is organized and resurgent. Lady Militant posted:It's not about what the U.S. is keeping from happening; it's about the fact that the U.S. as an outside force is able to insert it's interests where they wouldn't necessarily be a deciding factor. Removing that factor changes all the equations all of an suddenly which causes people to flip out because the paradigm they planned all their poo poo on is gone. Sometimes the flip out is just a diplomatic crisis. Sometimes it's war. Yeah, losing a hegemon, no matter what hegemon, tends to entail massive, unrestrained bloodletting. It's ideology agnostic too: interstate anarchy (as opposed to full anarchy) creates a worst of all worlds situation where the security dilemma incentivizes predatory warfare in basically all directions. If we're invoking historical precedent, something like 30 Years War or Three Kingdoms would be the most terrifying. Stairmaster posted:would the absence of US hedgemony make a Sino-pakistan-indo-war over himalayan water more or less likely Oh definitely more.
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Apr 25, 2020 19:17
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The evil and suffering coming up is all because we couldn't let workers' wages rise with their increased production.
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Apr 25, 2020 21:03
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Agean90 posted:lol if you dont start listening to dystopian sounding synth music when u open this thread https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAYyePl9esQ
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Apr 25, 2020 21:11
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Byzantine posted:Also the Roman Empire didn't fall from political squabbling, economic trouble or even plague, it was slowly beaten to death by barbarian invasions over a thousand years. I thought it was more like barbarians were the last straw but it was decaying for a long time?
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Apr 25, 2020 21:40
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The whole barbarian invasion narrative is pretty suspect in general I think, it was Gibbon's analysis in the 1700's and has just kinda stuck in the popular consciousness ever since but professional history has moved on quite a bit since the 1770's
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Apr 25, 2020 23:10
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Crazycryodude posted:The whole barbarian invasion narrative is pretty suspect in general I think, it was Gibbon's analysis in the 1700's and has just kinda stuck in the popular consciousness ever since but professional history has moved on quite a bit since the 1770's this is correct. prevailing theory is that most average western citizens may not have even noticed a transition. the west had been a backwater of unprofitable and indefensible provinces 2 centuries before the supposed fall. one day you look up and the boss is odoacer who cares theres manure to shovel, its not like they never had a foreign emperor come in and seize the state before.
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Apr 25, 2020 23:32
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LastInLine posted:Is there an analogous long tail for a collapse of US power in this regard? I think one could argue that externally things can only improve for the world as US power shrinks unlike decolonization or the collapse of the eastern bloc where the collapsing power was the only force keeping client states from combusting out of longstanding internal strife. uhhh, the colonial powers like the UK inflamed and even created internal strife to help consolidate their power. De-colonization was an unambiguously good thing.
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Apr 25, 2020 23:47
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Real hurthling! posted:this is correct. Who's talking about Odoacer? He was just a blip, even if you ignore that he ruled Italia in the Emperor's name. The Imperial borders in 570 were similar to and in some cases greater than in 470. Then it got hit with another wave of invasions. 
Byzantine has issued a correction as of 00:06 on Apr 26, 2020 |
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Apr 25, 2020 23:52
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Erdogan is going to bring the empire back any day now, so I'm not sure we can even say it collapsed.
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Apr 25, 2020 23:54
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Byzantine posted:Who's talking about Odoacer? the post i quoted discussing gibbons fall narrative thats based on odoacers ascension
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Apr 26, 2020 00:07
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Peanut President posted:supernova of collapse I’m not a good enough Marxist to articulate this, but this analogy feels closer to me, ie the accumulation of capital on a 500-, 250-, or 75-year timeline depending on how you measure the start of the us empire. personally it feels like post-ww2 is the right place to start and so the us is more like a supermassive star collapsing into a black hole than a main sequence G star that burns for a thousand years and fades away like the Roman Empire. I wish I could make an actual, literal thermodynamic argument but hey I am a product of the American education system it’s a miracle I can even spell
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Apr 26, 2020 00:18
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Centrist Committee posted:I’m not a good enough Marxist to articulate this, but this analogy feels closer to me, ie the accumulation of capital on a 500-, 250-, or 75-year timeline depending on how you measure the start of the us empire. personally it feels like post-ww2 is the right place to start and so the us is more like a supermassive star collapsing into a black hole than a main sequence G star that burns for a thousand years and fades away like the Roman Empire. I wish I could make an actual, literal thermodynamic argument but hey I am a product of the American education system it’s a miracle I can even spell u gotta measure in harry potters
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Apr 26, 2020 00:20
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Crazycryodude posted:The whole barbarian invasion narrative is pretty suspect in general I think, it was Gibbon's analysis in the 1700's and has just kinda stuck in the popular consciousness ever since but professional history has moved on quite a bit since the 1770's I feel like the poster 'Byzantine' who called the Pope a heathen priest may, in fact, be doing a posting Bit
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Apr 26, 2020 01:16
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mcclay posted:I feel like the poster 'Byzantine' who called the Pope a heathen priest may, in fact, be doing a posting Bit he should just be called 'roman' and then its gradually revealed through his posts that he thinks the empire survived into the 15th century imo
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Apr 26, 2020 01:18
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real balkanization doesn't seem likely to me since the american heartland is a contiguous area that's culturally homogenous, economically productive, and heavily armed, and it stretches from one coast to the other with the exception of a handful of major cities governed by harry potter-quoting morons. it's just going to be the pendulum swinging the other way in the great struggle between state and federal power for a few years. this is how american politics has worked since the revolutionary war. also even if it does swing that way its just going to make assholes like cuomo and larry hogan more powerful
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Apr 26, 2020 02:14
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Well to have real balkanization like in Yugoslavia -Large Language or cultural or religious differences (Not sure if pop vs Coke would cut it) -A large list of historical grievances mainly created because a foreign conqueror treated certain ethnic or religious better through "divide + conquer" tactic -Each of the ethnic would need to be motivated by anger over not being able to create their own state -The deterioration of the credibility for the nation state central authority (Trump?) -Collapse of central authority or dictatorial rule that held together the bickering ethnic and religious groups -Maps redrawn in a way that didn't make practical sense like the post India partition
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Apr 26, 2020 02:23
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LastInLine posted:What is the US keeping from happening is what I'm asking? I can only think of examples where we instigate regional or even internal conflict rather than anywhere we're keeping any from each other's throats. Russia full blown invading Ukraine, for one.
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Apr 26, 2020 02:34
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wufm6EiIJ4w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWvOTVqmyvI
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Apr 26, 2020 03:00
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Orvin posted:Is this when the Republicans finally complete their plan to force the collapse of the Postal Service? Can’t vote by mail if there is no mail service. https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/house-bill/6407 It wasn't *just* the Republicans. I will happily take a bet, 100 to one odds, any goon that had a democrat senate/congressperson in 06, they voted to gut the USPS.
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Apr 26, 2020 05:06
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lol @ Jets
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Apr 26, 2020 07:31
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Actually, Rome fell because Lenin had the last of the Caesars shot in a basement.
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Apr 26, 2020 07:38
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rome wasn't burned in a day
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Apr 26, 2020 07:59
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shame on an IGA posted:lol @ Jets The Facebook study has a asterisk at the bottom of the graphic saying the Jets were not included since they didn't have plurality of support in any of the geographic areas.
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Apr 26, 2020 12:55
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Mantis42 posted:Actually, Rome fell because Lenin had the last of the Caesars shot in a basement. Then Stalin drove the heir to the 2nd Rome to suicide Pretty bad time to be a fan of the Empire in the 20th century
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Apr 26, 2020 15:32
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Luckily the third Rome carried on the empire in Istanbul until the end of WW1.
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Apr 26, 2020 16:19
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This is what’s happening.
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Apr 26, 2020 16:27
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etalian posted:I would argue France? 1762. The collapse of Frances position in North America and Europe. Russia? 1860. Also. For those of you wanting the death of Amerikkka. Doubt it. You’ll get settler Socialism by 2030. Crowsbeak has issued a correction as of 16:35 on Apr 26, 2020 |
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Apr 26, 2020 16:32
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That is a dope rear end flag for WV and they should use it
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Apr 26, 2020 16:35
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shame on an IGA posted:That is a dope rear end flag for WV and they should use it Lots of them are pretty great. The Oregon one is way better too. But the South Carolina one is just lazy.
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Apr 26, 2020 16:42
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Crowsbeak posted:France? 1762. The collapse of Frances position in North America and Europe. Russia? 1860. Also. For those of you wanting the death of Amerikkka. Doubt it. You’ll get settler Socialism by 2030. More importantly there is nothing as a eternal empire sooner or later the various stress factors such as military failures / environmental disaster end up being too much. etalian has issued a correction as of 17:08 on Apr 26, 2020 |
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Apr 26, 2020 16:54
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etalian posted:More importantly there is nothing as a enteral empire sooner or later the various stress factors such as military failures / environmental disaster end up being too much. I just doubt this is what Balkanizes the USA. I can definitely see a second civil war emerging from this. Probably kill ten to fifteen million both from direct battlefield deaths, deprivation, and then mass killings in the aftermath. But I don’t see this killing the USA. Although I could see American democracy no longer existing or it being perhaps more honest about it not really being all there. Actually I could see the system that emerges even if it is less bad for those in the metropole probably guaranteed jobs, and guaranteed healthcare, and old age pensions, but at the same time things will be being openly worse to the empire, I also don’t see China being able to rapidly rip the void what has happened to Chinese enclaves across Africa in wake of racism in China due to Covid 19 shows that China is not really ready or able to throw its weight around for at least a decade if not longer I do see the American empire becoming much smaller. Probably regulated to the Anglosphere settler colonies as well as Latin America, but also now more overt. More permanent. I could see the regime actually launch wars of “liberation” on Latin America to remove the past influences of the previous American regimes while really securing American access to rare earth metal resources in what will remain of Brazil and lithium salts in Bolivia. I also could see the US funding “educators” with families to come to these liberated areas to spread its socialism and its language . To begin a process of outright colonialism.
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Apr 26, 2020 17:07
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