|
https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1254126782736982017?s=20 Interesting question; what happens to Europe when the German manufacturing export engine takes a loving body blow?
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 20:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 17:59 |
|
|
Repost from the bottom of the last page, because you gotta see this poo poo together: Given how reliant France, Spain, Italy are on their service sector, and that nobody loving knows if the holiday July/August season will even be possible ... https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1254130558050934784?s=20 Strap yourselves in everyone. (click the tweet to see the service Number). Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Apr 25, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 20:46
|
|
|
It's going to be a poo poo year for the tourism industry even if the holiday season is possible.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 20:54
|
|
|
It's going to be a loving disaster.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 20:59
|
|
|
Lots of commercial and consumer real-estate bonds about to go bad. Sure it'll be fine. Not like there are more building cranes in Alicante than most EU metropolitan areas. It's fine!
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 21:14
|
|
|
For sure the ECB is gonna be doing QE and junk-bond buying like it's a loving coke addict with a fresh salary in the bank account, but I don't think there's a monetary answer to this poo poo. Gotta be fiscal and and it's gotta be huge. Problem is we've taught an entire generation of technocratic dodos that all fiscal is always bad all the time, plus we signed that idiotic stability and growth pact. Plus the north/south thing. I have not very many clues as to what the gently caress's gonna happen.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 21:16
|
|
|
Well without fiscal support the local tourism economies of Mediterranean countries will simply starve. Like literally starve.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 21:20
|
|
|
Junior G-man posted:Given how reliant France, Spain, Italy are on their service sector, and that nobody loving knows if the holiday July/August season will even be possible ... The FT had this within an article last week:  This is just direct employment too - it doesn't count % of the population that is indirectly dependent. Children/partners of people who work in tourism etc. So the actual "dependent on tourism" figure is likely about twice whats shown in the above. Given the vast, vast majority (80% I'd say at a complete guess?) of tourism in these countries is the summer season of May->October theres going to have to be massive pressure on the governments in countries like Greece and Portugal to open up ASAP. They won't be able to afford to wait around until after the summer for things to return to normalcy.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 22:24
|
|
|
How are things in Italy compared to early March?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 22:50
|
|
|
Even if Greece and Portugal opened up, who is going to travel there now?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 23:02
|
|
|
Orange Devil posted:Even if Greece and Portugal opened up, who is going to travel there now? Plus, wouldn't they have to quarantine anyone coming into the country for at least 2 weeks, which would kill any potential trips anyway?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 23:26
|
|
|
Orange Devil posted:Even if Greece and Portugal opened up, who is going to travel there now? Oh yes, opening up won't actually solve the problem (in the short term anyway) at all. Numbers will still be way, way down. But if you're working in the tourism industry its one thing to have tourists from foreign countries choosing not to visit, its another having your own country outright banning them - the latter is at least in theory within your control, and so will be where the pressure will fall on domestic politicians. And the workers will probably hope some tourists will decide to visit anyway, which is better than none. Polls do show anything from 10-30% of people in most Western countries, depending on the country, are unconcerned about the virus. edit: just for reference, corona has been active in Greece since February. And Greece has only had 130 total corona deaths to date. And an average of only 2 deaths per day for the last week. So compare the impact of that to the impact of closed borders on the 27% of the country (~3million people) directly employed in tourism... Thats going to be a very different equation to countries both much harder hit by the virus, and much less dependent on tourism. Blut fucked around with this message at 23:45 on Apr 25, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 23:35
|
|
|
Kassad posted:It's going to be a poo poo year for the tourism industry even if the holiday season is possible. There's no way to say this without sounding like a ghoul, but in these situations what are prices like if you do manage to get out? Assuming we can travel this summer, I would be more than happy to hit a beach in Brittany and spend some money over there.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 23:37
|
|
|
100YrsofAttitude posted:There's no way to say this without sounding like a ghoul, but in these situations what are prices like if you do manage to get out? Michael O'Leary of Ryanair gave an interview where he touched on this last week: quote:PARIS (Reuters) - Ryanair <RYA.I> is steeling for an airline price war that it expects to win once coronavirus restrictions are lifted and passengers flock back to tourist destinations, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told Reuters on Wednesday. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-sees-quick-airline-recovery-145143208.html So if that bears out come June we should start seeing a lot of last minute holiday bargain deals for July&August.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2020 23:42
|
|
|
Spain signalling they might be ready to play hardball: https://nos.nl/artikel/2331753-premier-spanje-nog-boos-over-houding-nederland-hadden-excuses-rutte-verwacht.html OD translation: quote:Spain still wants nothing to do with preconditions in order to receive money from a recovery fund, with which to soak up the economic blows of the coronavirus. "This is a war. In a war, you do not put conditions on help", says the Spanish prime minister Sánchez. He is not happy with the tone finance minister Wopke Hoekstra used towards Spain earlier. Can someone fluent in Spanish find the actual words of Sánchez and tell me if he seems ready to tell the Dutch government to gently caress himself or if this is more showmanship for his own political base?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 00:13
|
|
|
Here it is https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2020/04/25/5ea4043ee5fdeac0588b45d0.html It seems super mild to me. "It is the moment to show that solidarity is at the core of the European Union" and "European solidarity cannot rely just on higher debt" are the harshest things to me. Plus it's said in the rag for boardrooms, the equivalent to the wsj or the economist. Soooooooooo I am not holding my breath
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 02:30
|
|
|
100YrsofAttitude posted:There's no way to say this without sounding like a ghoul, but in these situations what are prices like if you do manage to get out? I frankly don't know, the government is saying they won't make an announcement about reopening hotels, restaurants and bars until the end of May.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 03:02
|
|
|
I used to say to people in Portugal that relying on tourism forever and expecting it to grow forever too was suicidal, that we needed to diversify and have better social nets. But for some reason most people thought tourism was this never ending growing industry and if something was bad the good Germans would come to help, the psychopatic ghouls that didn't help on the last crisis are not going to help on the next but for some reason the germans were going to have a change of heart (haha), we are incredible hosed for the future. But living in the US has told me Portugal could be far worse, so there is some silver lining that the super power has set the bar pretty low.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 04:05
|
|
|
Blut posted:edit: just for reference, corona has been active in Greece since February. And Greece has only had 130 total corona deaths to date. And an average of only 2 deaths per day for the last week. So compare the impact of that to the impact of closed borders on the 27% of the country (~3million people) directly employed in tourism... Thats going to be a very different equation to countries both much harder hit by the virus, and much less dependent on tourism. But the equation would include the risk of a new outbreak spreading rapidly from infected tourists, not just that of the current low death rate continuing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 08:56
|
|
|
Dawncloack posted:Here it is The actual article about Sanchez's words that Orange Devil linked is this one: https://www.europapress.es/economia...0425220830.html At a first glance it's pretty much the same, except for one bit: "There's no moral hazard, the only collective goal is to save lives and there's no other conditionality outside this one" I think it's really unlikely that Sanchez will tell the Dutch government tu gently caress off for the time being, or any other party in Spain for that matter, even though there's many people who would support that. Angry Lobster fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Apr 26, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 09:21
|
|
|
Oh, thanks! My google fu is bad. Yeah, very unlikely.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 11:11
|
|
|
u brexit ukip it posted:But the equation would include the risk of a new outbreak spreading rapidly from infected tourists, not just that of the current low death rate continuing. People are inherently bad at weighing up theoretical long term risk against very real actual short term risk, though. Those 3 million people in Greece are facing a near 100% chance of having no money to pay rent, or to pay for food for their family, within a month or two. Versus a vague potential risk of a resurge of corona that might happen further away, and if it does that might be the same low death rate as the current one and no worse, or if it does and if its worse it might only not hit people you know and care about. This on top of the whole wider economy imploding rapidly side of things too. Government revenue is also going to be under huge pressure in these countries - much worse than in Northern Europe. Its really going to be an extremely hard sell for politicians to keep tourism closed down all summer in Europe.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 11:15
|
|
|
Thanks guys. Disappointing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 12:10
|
|
|
Also radio fake news and conspiranoia is making Sanchez out to be begging for a handout in Brussels. The anger I suffer at the fake news industry is red hot.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 12:23
|
|
|
Blut posted:Its really going to be an extremely hard sell for politicians to keep tourism closed down all summer in Europe. I wonder how many people will go south if going back home includes a 14 day quarantine?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 14:40
|
|
|
Both Portugal and Spain have huge extensions of beach, if you can do a beach season with relative social distancing it will be there. There's one between troia and sines which is just 45 Kms of uninterrupted sand and sea, it's pretty great.also rich assholes are trying to make them private beaches so if anyone wants to come over and cough all over their beach houses you're welcome.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 15:34
|
|
|
Antifa Poltergeist posted:Both Portugal and Spain have huge extensions of beach, if you can do a beach season with relative social distancing it will be there. Not saying politicians won't try to force it anyway, but I sure hope we keep our citizens at home, or put them in quarantine if we do let them go.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 16:47
|
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:For southern politicians. In the north the only argument for lifting quarantines is supporting southern economies and letting the people who absolute have to go on a Mediterranean vacation do that without any consideration for the rest of the country. Meanwhile keeping the quarantine going means being able to get out of lockdown faster, so your economy can start to bounce back, with the potential added benefit of propping up your domestic tourism industry. True, Northern politicians will definitely be under far less pressure to open the borders. My post should really have read "Southern Europe" rather than just Europe. I wouldn't do it personally. But for the 10-30% of the population that doesn't think corona is a threat a 14 day day post-holiday quarantine might be a benefit not a cost. Governments will definitely bring in legislation so that anyone in mandatory corona related quarantine gets paid/can't get fired, because they'll want people to do it. So 14 paid days off from your blue collar job, after your holiday, because the government insists? After getting a really cheap deal on your sun holiday? Thats a pretty good deal, if you're not worried about the virus at all.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 17:10
|
|
|
Blut posted:True, Northern politicians will definitely be under far less pressure to open the borders. My post should really have read "Southern Europe" rather than just Europe. They're not going to open the borders and still require 14 days quarantine for travellers. That makes no sense. Guys it's safe to travel so go ahead and also it's not safe so we'll quarantine you.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 18:46
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:They're not going to open the borders and still require 14 days quarantine for travellers. That makes no sense. Guys it's safe to travel so go ahead and also it's not safe so we'll quarantine you. Don’t wear masks because they don’t do anything also it’s mandatory to wear a mask in public places now.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 18:49
|
|
|
Blut posted:True, Northern politicians will definitely be under far less pressure to open the borders. My post should really have read "Southern Europe" rather than just Europe. Blut posted:So 14 paid days off from your blue collar job, after your holiday, because the government insists? After getting a really cheap deal on your sun holiday? Thats a pretty good deal, if you're not worried about the virus at all. e: I mean, I suppose it would support the upper (middle) class types who spread the disease around in the first place, so why not?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 19:09
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:They're not going to open the borders and still require 14 days quarantine for travellers. That makes no sense. Guys it's safe to travel so go ahead and also it's not safe so we'll quarantine you. Thats literally exactly how things currently are in a lot of places around the world, today. Open borders, but mandatory quarantine for anyone who arrives. A Buttery Pastry posted:Why would northern governments want people to go on vacation? Especially the people who don't think it's a threat, who will be far more likely to get infected and then circumvent quarantine in some way that creates new domestic clusters. Having them stay home to spend money here is much better for the economy. Northern governments would absolutely prefer people not go on vacation. But they're also going to find it hard to completely ban it, without closing their borders completely. Even right now, comparatively close to the peak, people are still flying places for leisure reasons - and I know someone personally who decided to go on vacation to take advantage of it. quote:What you're suggesting here is combining the worst two things in the world; doing something nice for your domestic workforce and funneling money to southern economies. Did you arrive from some alternate universe where the United Socialist Republics reign over Europe? Its nothing to do with some utopian ideal of doing something nice for anyone. Northern governments will in complete self interest want to quarantine any arrivals to prevent new outbreaks if they can, but won't want to/aren't able to fully close their borders. Southern states in self-interest are going to want to reopen for tourism as soon as humanly possible. And flights/airports/ports aren't shut down even right now, and are only going to get more frequent than they are as time goes on. And lots of people are going to take advantage of that combination, if they can. This is the current projection for air travel according to the FT this week like:  Tourism, though at a much reduced level, is going to be back a lot sooner than people expect. Blut fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Apr 26, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 19:22
|
|
|
We should keep everyone locked down until the number of new cases is 0 for two weeks, but that would be disastrous for Number, so... I agree with blut , tourism will be back sooner than we think, even if at 50 or 60% of previous numbers. There's too much money at stake, and too many people on the brink of financial ruin that will accept that gamble. Can't wait for the hipernormalisation of 2% of the population just dying every flu season, gonna be lit. Hell, I'm betting just as soon as this subsides a bit that a majority of governments will crow "mission accomplished!" There's gonna be a smorgasbord of spending and consumption like it's loving Christmas. For 2 weeks. And we'll still be arguing about Corona bonds then
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 19:34
|
|
|
Blut posted:And the workers will probably hope some tourists will decide to visit anyway, which is better than none. Polls do show anything from 10-30% of people in most Western countries, depending on the country, are unconcerned about the virus. Eastern Europe has in general fewer cases per capita than Western Europe. Vacationing in Eastern Europe carries less risk than vacationing domestically. That's assuming you travel by car -- not sure how planes fit into the equation. Antifa Poltergeist posted:We should keep everyone locked down until the number of new cases is 0 for two weeks, but that would be disastrous for Number, so... It would be disastrous not only for Number but for Human too. Obvious economic problems aside, lockdown also brings more divorces, more domestic abuse, more mental illness, more obesity and related health issues... And besides it's not even something epidemiologists wish for. In this stage of the pandemic you want the disease to progress slowly, to let population get immunity without overburdening the health system.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2020 22:08
|
|
|
Doctor Malaver posted:It would be disastrous not only for Number but for Human too. Obvious economic problems aside, lockdown also brings more divorces, more domestic abuse, more mental illness, more obesity and related health issues... And besides it's not even something epidemiologists wish for. In this stage of the pandemic you want the disease to progress slowly, to let population get immunity without overburdening the health system. Not sure why you'd go with that plan over clamping down on the disease until it's extinguished in your country, a strategy with a proven record that has the added benefit of getting out of social restrictions faster. Sure, you have to keep restrictions going for cross-border movement, but that's far preferable to maintaining them internally.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 05:42
|
|
|
Am I the only one who's actually noticeably lost weight with isolation?
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 06:18
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Am I the only one who's actually noticeably lost weight with isolation? Do you also have a 2 month old? Because I keep eating and losing weight (and sleep hours). 
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 06:38
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Am I the only one who's actually noticeably lost weight with isolation? Same here, much healthier lifestyle, more exercise, all food is homecooked. Also in other news, Wolfgang Schauble would like to start tossing people in the volcano to satisfy the Economy God: quote:BERLIN. Over the weekend, Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) advocated for a more even calculus between public health and the economic and social consequences of a prolonged shutdown, fearing an overload of state capacities. He also disagreed with subordinating all other concerns to the goal of saving lives, claiming "this in its absolutism is not correct," as the German constitution's right to human dignity "does not exclude the possibility that we must die." Now where have we heard that before from the same guy? Hmmmmm
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 07:49
|
|
|
Doctor Malaver posted:Eastern Europe has in general fewer cases per capita than Western Europe. Vacationing in Eastern Europe carries less risk than vacationing domestically. That's assuming you travel by car -- not sure how planes fit into the equation. There's absolutely no proof we can keep imunity.there is no proof that if you get the Roni with mild symptoms, that the next time you do get it, it doesn't cause a stroke or rampaging pneumonia. The only thing that differentiates mild symptoms and rampaging symptoms besides comorbidities is viral load at infection. NZ is on its way to zero infections. The current restrictions have also seen infection by the common cold and the flu plummet.if we keep this until r0 is, you know, 0 , we can basically supress 3 of the most common causes of death right now, and with immediate quarantine procedures buy us enough time to roll out a vaccine or at least reliable testing. We can guarantee a universal basic income during a lockdown.we can also garantee that any job furloughed is kept.this would help Number in the long run.but we don't do it because there is no political will to do it.because Number must go up now.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 07:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 17:59 |
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:Not sure why you'd go with that plan over clamping down on the disease until it's extinguished in your country, a strategy with a proven record that has the added benefit of getting out of social restrictions faster. Sure, you have to keep restrictions going for cross-border movement, but that's far preferable to maintaining them internally. Antifa Poltergeist posted:There's absolutely no proof we can keep imunity.there is no proof that if you get the Roni with mild symptoms, that the next time you do get it, it doesn't cause a stroke or rampaging pneumonia. You're making it sound like there's an obvious approach which suits every country regardless of its geography, health system, and finances, and the only reason it's not universally accepted is concern for profits. In fact, nobody knows what they're doing, countries are trying different things, and "proven records" are often disproven (Singapore, for example).
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2020 10:17
|
|