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it's so bizarrely uninvestable you don't know, and CANNOT know, what you will actually own day-to-day. they just make it up as they go along. now it's buying 2021 futures according to twitter e: new page. talking about $USO
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Apr 27, 2020 14:51
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Jack Daniels posted:lol asnd again haha pmchem posted:it's so bizarrely uninvestable lol yeah I never seen this, its too funny https://twitter.com/BrynneKKelly/status/1254768685023064065
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Apr 27, 2020 14:54
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Why would any investor choose to own this "fund" it's loving Calvinball.
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Apr 27, 2020 14:57
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Why would any investor choose to own this "fund" it's loving Calvinball. But number go down!! Should go up??
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Apr 27, 2020 14:58
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Why would any investor choose to own this "fund" it's loving Calvinball.  Ola posted:But number go down!! Should go up?? 
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Apr 27, 2020 15:02
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Question for the bears in this thread: if you have a large cash position and some FOMO on stocks, why not just put it in something like LQD instead? The Fed is directly buying that ETF and IG bonds, the yield is better than most other options, it has very diversified holdings that simply won't all be cut in half, and LQD is generally less volatile than stocks. Even megabears like Minerd are buying corp bonds: https://twitter.com/ScottMinerd/status/1252625627854888962 https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/note-to-clients-where-we-are-nibbling-at-value (linked in tweet, talks bonds, from April 5) In a couple accounts I have 20% long-term corp bonds, and they've been quite stable. Basically just chose to hold those instead of cash while deciding if/when to convert them to equities.
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Apr 27, 2020 15:04
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Jack Daniels posted:lol yeah I never seen this, its too funny lol, I wonder if they still consider their benchmark front-month WTI futures, which they now own zero of
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Apr 27, 2020 15:06
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Why would any "investor" choose to own this fund it's loving Calvinball. you put the scare quotes around the wrong word, ftfy
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Apr 27, 2020 15:12
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I think the thing I want to hammer on is the consistent resistance that's been keeping us from breaking 290 since the beginning of April the p/e level here is 20.5 (source) and it's not going past that, which means despite herds of bulls, there's a lot of parties willing to unload at this level. Basically if we're getting a v-shaped recovery this is a terrible place to sell at, because not only will you be buying back in at comparative highs, but historically high prices. If we're not, then this is the best time to sell, a historically high P/E with a LOT of risk factors prevalent that can bring the price back down.
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Apr 27, 2020 15:19
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My numbers are going down and I do NOT like this
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Apr 27, 2020 15:21
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Could make some nice gains in long positions acquired in risky areas (gaming, REIT) last week and most of me wants to close out, but I think this may be the week of irrational exuberance as things start to open up. Earnings seen solidly mixed to positive vs. the poo poo-level expectations. Other than a turnaround in infection/death numbers what's going to slow the train this week?
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Apr 27, 2020 15:22
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Rodan posted:Could make some nice gains in long positions acquired in risky areas (gaming, REIT) last week and most of me wants to close out, but I think this may be the week of irrational exuberance as things start to open up. Earnings seen solidly mixed to positive vs. the poo poo-level expectations. Other than a turnaround in infection/death numbers what's going to slow the train this week? Although things have seemed batshit irrational lately, no one can ignore that large sectors of the US economy will have a majority of earnings evaporated for at least April, and we haven't seen those earnings yet. Even irrational investors have their limits, and so we will see a slow train this week as we bump up against the limits. That's my guess.
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Apr 27, 2020 15:28
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TSLA up 10% today?! I’ve never messed with it, but SURELY this is the day to go short...
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Apr 27, 2020 15:42
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poisonpill posted:TSLA up 10% today?! I’ve never messed with it, but SURELY this is the day to go short... People who doubt Musk's vibe tend to get burned
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Apr 27, 2020 15:43
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:
Buy super-discounted blue chips, then, to play it safe/less risky? Not all of the big names are back from the depths of the Ides of March.
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Apr 27, 2020 15:58
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poisonpill posted:TSLA up 10% today?! I’ve never messed with it, but SURELY this is the day to go short... I've been thinking when it hits 800. Almost there.
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Apr 27, 2020 15:58
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I think we've seen today's top. Put an /ES short in at 2858 and wil likely hold it most of the day e: Stopped out at 2862 Sepist fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Apr 27, 2020 |
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Apr 27, 2020 16:01
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LLCoolJD posted:Buy super-discounted blue chips, then, to play it safe/less risky? Not all of the big names are back from the depths of the Ides of March. if you want to do this, RSP is an interesting play: https://etfdb.com/etf/RSP/#etf-ticker-profile equal-weighted S&P 500. So you get the blue chips, but not the market-cap weighting of the FAANGs. RSP outperformed SPY in the decade following the last crisis. I've been tinkering with the idea of allocating 5% to it, but, you know, past performance does not predict blah blah blah
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Apr 27, 2020 16:04
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Thank loving god ZM has meme stock strength. My ill-fated put sale went from -180% to a mere -40%. I’m going to close out before MSFT reports earnings. I think ZM could take a dive when cloud hosting post earnings, as that’ll give some insight into increased expenses.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:25
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I was surprised to see the selling from 10:53am-11:01am as I was about to join a conference call. I'm surprised to see the buying since then after finishing the call. Basically I don't know what's going on.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:32
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https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1254746703267270656?s=20 the symbols of his companies are AHT and BHR, which are up 15% and 5% today, respectively. and AINC, up 2%
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Apr 27, 2020 16:34
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I'm watching SPY this this morning and internally I'm saying this is going to reverse sometime today down towards 280 again (282 I'm guessing), but it just isn't happening. It's getting ready to hit 287 and I'm just dumbfounded really.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:34
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skipdogg posted:I'm watching SPY this this morning and internally I'm saying this is going to reverse sometime today down towards 280 again (282 I'm guessing), but it just isn't happening. It's getting ready to hit 287 and I'm just dumbfounded really. We hit 287 two Fridays ago. Then plopped back down to 272 within 2 days. Basically a substantial majority of market participants have confidence that we should be around here, but not exactly where around here.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:41
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:We hit 287 two Fridays ago. I'm going to try a quick SPY put scalp again . 01 May SPY 285 P @ 2.88 I'll sell before EOD no matter which way things go. Theta is a bitch.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:52
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I sold a few covered calls a few weeks ago that are now about 3 days from expiring and just today are barely in the money. I want them to be exercised. What are the chances of it?
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Apr 27, 2020 17:06
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pmchem posted:if you want to do this, RSP is an interesting play: Thanks for the tip.
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Apr 27, 2020 17:07
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Admittedly dumb question for y’all: I have some OTM OIL put options expiring 5/15. Barclays liquidated the fund and delisted it https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-announces-redemption-ipath-series-001100135.html Am I able to exercise these whenever for maximum profit? Or do I just have to hold these until they expire worthless since they were OTM at the time of fund liquidation?
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Apr 27, 2020 17:09
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ho fan posted:Admittedly dumb question for y’all: Whenever stuff like this happens your first stop should be to the Options Clearing Corporation: https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemos?number=46863&date=202004&lastModifiedDate=04%2F21%2F2020+00%3A00%3A00
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Apr 27, 2020 17:20
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Risky Bisquick posted:People who doubt Musk's vibe tend to get burned Since Q2 is shot for Tesla, a lot of people think they're going to play games and do everything they can to get Q1 looking good, plus Musk has a massive bonus that he's almost earned if the stock can stay high for a bit longer. It's not worth $300, but I still think it may go up above $800 when earnings are released on Wednesday.
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Apr 27, 2020 17:36
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So my poopy ideas for predicting cases have some results I can look back on: - Peak error so far for my forecasts from 4/18 is 2.3%. I expect that this will continue to deteriorate with time, because it's a loving forecast. But calling a week with 2% accuracy feels decently good. - I've tweaked my model because I was applying the linear regression forward from whatever we last observed; this is bad modeling but I was just loving around iteratively. My frozen forecasts from Saturday use the bad thing, and live ones are now applying both the linear growth and intercept out of the linear regression. - The past week I was mainly interested in trying to get a more convergent model, seeing it swing wildly from full infection in late May to the virus growth halting in early may means it's not predicting anything. I used a 10-day window to try and make an responsive but quasi-stable forecast, and all data since March 22 when I first spotted the acceleration growth trend. The latter is behaving pretty stable in predicting 1% infection in mid May I originally even bothered to come up with a forecast because I was more interested in having some sort of idea if the growth rate was slowing enough to counteract the preceding spread. The growth rate definitely slowed in March. The infected population was definitely hundreds of thousands of people. I'm not convinced I have a great answer pointing either way, but I am convinced that most uncertainty will shake out in mid-late May and we'll have a good idea where things will be headed by then.
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Apr 27, 2020 17:40
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:We hit 287 two Fridays ago. It really does seem like buying pressure is stalling out in the 285-290 range for now, but I wonder why is that? If it's fundamentals/PE we should be waaay lower, and if it's FOMO/exhuberance/Brrr there's really no reason to stall here since the sky is the limit.
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Apr 27, 2020 17:55
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Freezer posted:It really does seem like buying pressure is stalling out in the 285-290 range for now, but I wonder why is that? My conspiratorial thinker says that we're hosed and are gonna have a good long shitshow in store for us; the bounce back was creating an opportunity for the rich to get out at a good price before the pain sets in. But why would that pick 290 as a ceiling?  If we're still under 290 next Friday I bet some of the FOMO buyers quickly become FOMO sellers.
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Apr 27, 2020 18:02
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Before I make a hugely stupid mistake, could someone help me better understand the effects of upgrading my etrade brokerage to a margin account? I wanted to just do some basic options trading, mostly buy to open/sell to close calls and puts, and maybe sell some covered calls on some ESPP/RSUs I have from my previous employer. I upgraded to level 3 options, and of course that required upgrading to a margin account. My question is this, is there a way to choose if you purchase on margin vs. purchasing with cash in the same account, or do I need to have a separate cash account for longer-term investing so that I'm not paying interest on margin? Edit: my experience with options trading has just been on Robinhood, where I had just a few grand of cash to gently caress around with, and didn't gently caress with margin.
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Apr 27, 2020 18:07
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You always use cash before the margin, so just pay attention to how much actual cash you have. Margin also lets you use unsettled cash (i.e. cash from a sold stock takes a day or two to become settled and usable again in a cash transaction) which gives you flexibility. And yes, you do have the option of using pure cash in a margin account, but it's unnecessary since cash is used first regardless, assuming again, you pay attention. Since I believe L3 does not let you do fully uncovered options with unlimited downside, that shouldn't be a concern there. lurksion fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Apr 27, 2020 |
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Apr 27, 2020 18:30
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skipdogg posted:I'm going to try a quick SPY put scalp again . Out of this @ 3.10. Not loving the low volume of things today, and while I think it'll sell off a tiny bit more, I wanted out of the position.
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Apr 27, 2020 18:34
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MetaJew posted:Before I make a hugely stupid mistake, could someone help me better understand the effects of upgrading my etrade brokerage to a margin account? I wanted to just do some basic options trading, mostly buy to open/sell to close calls and puts, and maybe sell some covered calls on some ESPP/RSUs I have from my previous employer. I upgraded to level 3 options, and of course that required upgrading to a margin account. If you have <$25k in a margin account you will be subject to PDT rules, cash accounts are not (all RH accounts are margin)
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Apr 27, 2020 18:37
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skipdogg posted:Out of this @ 3.10. Not loving the low volume of things today, and while I think it'll sell off a tiny bit more, I wanted out of the position. 
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Apr 27, 2020 18:40
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lurksion posted:You always use cash before the margin, so just pay attention to how much actual cash you have. Margin also lets you use unsettled cash (i.e. cash from a sold stock takes a day or two to become settled and usable again in a pure cash account) which gives you flexibility. https://us.etrade.com/e/t/estation/help?id=1304010000#View  Okay I think you're right about the unlimited downside part-- based on the Level 4 description. I'm still not 100% clear on your statement that the purchase always uses cash first-- since in this example trade (lol at TSLA filling at $500), it shows my net purchasing power only decreasing buy $250. 
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Apr 27, 2020 18:40
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I have level 3 options through webull on a cash account. I don't trust myself with margin. I have to wait for funds to settle before I can use them again, but option funds settle overnight.
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Apr 27, 2020 18:40
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MetaJew posted:https://us.etrade.com/e/t/estation/help?id=1304010000#View Purchasing power = cash + potential max margin balance the funds being used are still cash when you buy stock it is marginable (take a loan against its value), so the purchasing power doesn't decrease by the entire purchase price of the stock in this case, TSLA has a 50% maintenance margin, so you can borrow against 50% of its price hostile apostle fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Apr 27, 2020 |
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Apr 27, 2020 18:44
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