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The Ferret King posted:It's so.... Blurry. GoFast is literally a clip of a couple of guys who don't know what they are looking at who happened to come across a weather balloon. It's almost embarrassing how much they fawn over a very clear mistake of misunderstanding their depth of field with their instrument. It's kind of not shocking that the military would want to keep it quiet that no, it's not all experts who are using their multi-million dollar taxpayer-purchased equipment. Or at very best, sometimes it's knowledgeable people who make very basic mistakes. But then you get these same people incredulous and leaking things that are, frankly, embarrassing, because we've basically trained people to believe in bullshit. And here we are. And I'm not saying I am not culpable or that I didn't cheer some of it on. But again, here we are.
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May 2, 2020 05:16
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Nitrousoxide posted:Why would the habitable zone not extend to the edge of the galaxy? Frequent Tyrannid invasions? Wikipedia's astronomy articles are not very good, to say the least. That figure doesn't even show what it claims to - it looks more like an annulus of 3-10 kpc than 7-9. But basically: skooma512 posted:It's less dense so there's less going on so there's less heavy elements? See Fig. 4 in this in this recent paper.
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May 2, 2020 05:38
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ashpanash posted:GoFast is literally a clip of a couple of guys who don't know what they are looking at who happened to come across a weather balloon. It's almost embarrassing how much they fawn over a very clear mistake of misunderstanding their depth of field with their instrument. It's kind of not shocking that the military would want to keep it quiet that no, it's not all experts who are using their multi-million dollar taxpayer-purchased equipment. Or at very best, sometimes it's knowledgeable people who make very basic mistakes. You are hella wrong dude. This isn't just "Some Guys" It's an O-5 in the navy running F-18s, not Joe Blow in a lawn mower who threw his beer can and saw a UFO in its shadow You should listen to fravors testimony. The dude is a CAG not some Joe. do you know how much internal ridicule you'd get for misidentifying a weather balloon? Fravors footage was reviewed by a ton of people on his ship. what weatherballon rotates then does a horizontal slide against a 100+ knot wind? Just understanding how an autotrack/instrumebts work is a big part of getting why the footage is so important. The object was moving so loving fast they bare. Also weather balloons usually go up and down not left to right WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 19:01 on May 2, 2020 |
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May 2, 2020 18:56
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Well. They travel generally up or down, and also laterally at the speed, and in the same direction of, the air mass it's moving through.
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May 2, 2020 19:04
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a pwn cocktail posted:So why would the USSR bankrupt their economy trying to keep up with their own nukes if they can just turn the American ones off? Can I ask you to explain why you think the case you're referring to might be a fabrication beyond the fact you're simply unwilling to consider an ET hypothesis. Is there inconsistency in the testimony? Have you identified a reason for why they might wish to lie? Is there a problem with the documents supporting that what they said happened actually happened? Can you not read? If I take stories like rendlesham forest at face value, I personally like the alien angle as a complete explanation. I've read earnest attempts to explain what sound like supernatural events with natural explanations bit it always sounds hollow to me. If you don't accept the testimony at face value, then nothing or a fabrication are both a reasonable explanation but what's the fun in that?
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May 2, 2020 19:42
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These things were tracked for hours on radar and seen by multiple pilots including the dude in charge of the fighters on the carrier. They don't just give that job to anybody. Anybody claiming the misidentified a weather balloon or the like did a cursory skim of the story and fired off a hot take. There are valid criticisms and avenues of skepticism one can take here, but that isn't one of them.
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May 2, 2020 19:44
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Hate to break it to you, but sensor ghosts are definitely the most likely cause of any of those videos. It's precisely why the military has been hesitant to release this material previously: people have a tendency to see what they want to see out of them.
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May 2, 2020 19:48
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Honesltly weatherballoons seem to be the cause of all UFO sightings, so much so that this would probably be happening, and trump would be on Tv saying "it's called WEATHER folks" ---- 17 Min clip of Fravor talking on JRE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd_bqExkllk&t=126s Dude's not a kook, He's very objective about all this so i tend to believe him more than the Element 115 guy bob lazar
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May 2, 2020 19:53
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The genius of Bob Lazar's grift is that his appearance and demeanor fit with incredible precision what you'd think a 1980s physicist or engineer would be like. All he really does is try to act and sound like what you'd imagine a guy like that would be like, and to play the part of how a person like that would respond to having had the job of reverse-engineering ancient spaceships from Zeta Reticuli.
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May 2, 2020 20:36
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:You are hella wrong dude. This isn't just "Some Guys" It's an O-5 in the navy running F-18s, not Joe Blow in a lawn mower who threw his beer can and saw a UFO in its shadow You should listen to fravors testimony. The dude is a CAG not some Joe. do you know how much internal ridicule you'd get for misidentifying a weather balloon? Fravors footage was reviewed by a ton of people on his ship. Ok then. Please, tell me what's wrong with this analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M
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May 2, 2020 21:18
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ashpanash posted:Ok then. Please, tell me what's wrong with this analysis: So the analysis says the thing is going slower than the speed of sound, There's nothing wrong with the analysis. What's wrong is your statement of this is just some guys, This was reviewed by not only the pilots, their CAGs, also the XO of the ship. Fravor wasn't even piloting the F-18 when this occured and was reviewing the footage. I mean as a high ranking naval pilot you kind of risk your status by propagating unsubstantiated rumors and myths so why even do so unless there's a figurative acceptance that these things were running around I mean, imagine a general running around yelling about weather balloons to his troops. dude would be fired in a quickness
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May 2, 2020 21:55
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:So the analysis says the thing is going slower than the speed of sound, There's nothing wrong with the analysis. What's wrong is your statement of this is just some guys, This was reviewed by not only the pilots, their CAGs, also the XO of the ship. Fravor wasn't even piloting the F-18 when this occured and was reviewing the footage. I mean as a high ranking naval pilot you kind of risk your status by propagating unsubstantiated rumors and myths so why even do so unless there's a figurative acceptance that these things were running around You're mixing up the videos. Go fast and gimbal are from the East Coast in 2015(within a day of each other iirc). Flir is the one involving Fravor and is West Coast from 2004. From what I've seen West's analysis of gofast is reasonable since it's all based on numbers directly from the video. His analysis of gimbal and flir are far less convincing, flir especially given all the other evidence corroborating the video.
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May 2, 2020 22:19
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Ratios and Tendency posted:You're mixing up the videos. Go fast and gimbal are from the East Coast in 2015(within a day of each other iirc). Flir is the one involving Fravor and is West Coast from 2004. Oops, you're right. Sorry black dots on a white plane all melt together in my mind
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May 2, 2020 22:23
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:What's wrong is your statement of this is just some guys, This was reviewed by not only the pilots, their CAGs, also the XO of the ship. Fravor wasn't even piloting the F-18 when this occured and was reviewing the footage. I mean as a high ranking naval pilot you kind of risk your status by propagating unsubstantiated rumors and myths so why even do so unless there's a figurative acceptance that these things were running around My exact point is that these are people we expect to be hyper-competent that are instead making rookie mistakes. And that there's a reasonable reason here as to why this was covered up - because it is just that - people who are supposed to be hyper-competent making rookie mistakes. Who then weren't fired in a quickness, for whatever reason. After making a bunch of noise about a weather balloon. And a lot of that, and the willingness and ease at which otherwise qualified and experienced people believe in alien fairy tales when perfectly reasonable explanations exist, is very much a cultural phenomenon.
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May 2, 2020 23:16
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ashpanash posted:My exact point is that these are people we expect to be hyper-competent that are instead making rookie mistakes. This would imply its a one off, the testimony he made states that he went to more than a few big whigs to talk about this. Like literally slam fists "What are we going to do about this!",. Jerking around the ready room discussing this is one thing, going to superiors to discuss it and pushing for action is another. One of these will get your rear end fired if they think your a nutjob, one won't. I mean seriously, not sure if you were in the military dod or anything like that, but to pump up a weather balloon is a pretty loving bad thing to do as an O-5. you're basically claiming a chain of command made a collective rookie mistake and no check and balance went "dudes this is a weather balloon gently caress of with this poo poo and ger back to making sure the soldiers arent wasting time on this bullshit" WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:40 on May 2, 2020 |
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May 2, 2020 23:37
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Ratios and Tendency posted:You're mixing up the videos. Go fast and gimbal are from the East Coast in 2015(within a day of each other iirc). Flir is the one involving Fravor and is West Coast from 2004. Yeah, the flir from the Nimitz incident is definitely the odd one out. It was not one or two people seeing a sensor reading and trying to figure out what it was. It was a sensor reading being noticed by a ship, then a plane being dispatched to check it out, which then recorded the video. Then all the other shenanigans we know of from the radio chatter that was happening at the time, including the fact they were looking at one of many sensor readings that all disappeared like the thing they were looking at did. That doesn't mean aliens, but it means it is pretty compellingly some kind of craft that flies in a pretty weird way. I had speculated previously it was a bunch of drones that use a counter-rotating prop to push themselves and ducting from that prop to also stabilize themselves, all in a big plastic shell that makes it aerodynamic enough to zip around. Who would have had those out there, I have no idea! This was also 2004 so unless it was from a project that was completely scuttled for reasons we will never know, I cannot imagine why it was something our government had at that stage of operation that didn't become a new expensive class of cruise missile. If it was some private skunkworks project, it's a hilarious idea that a private company did this without the government knowing, and now has not come forward about having things that can do this (or I guess has done so in secret, who knows). If it was some other country doing it I guess what those craft can do will be a surprise for later, or they'll never be seen again.
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May 3, 2020 00:02
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LtStorm posted:Yeah, the flir from the Nimitz incident is definitely the odd one out. It was not one or two people seeing a sensor reading and trying to figure out what it was. It was a sensor reading being noticed by a ship, then a plane being dispatched to check it out, which then recorded the video. Then all the other shenanigans we know of from the radio chatter that was happening at the time, including the fact they were looking at one of many sensor readings that all disappeared like the thing they were looking at did. The US does have a rich history of governments loving with each other in weird ways, like an Sr-71 buzzing a tower just for kicks https://theaviationgeekclub.com/sr-71-pilot-tells-the-story-of-when-he-buzzed-the-tower-of-sacramento-airport-with-afterburners-lit/ Fravor also talks about dropping the thruster on an F-18 and flying over an RV at like 400 MPH from Zero, so making an extremely loud noise, zooming off into the distance, etc. literally a steriotypical UFO sighting done just to gently caress around. Oh and guess what, Report this fucker as a UFO and you will literally be visited by black suited bald men 
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May 3, 2020 00:10
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Ships radar sees it, fighters scrambled. Fighters radar sees it then pilots see it. Just a sensor ghost folks!
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May 3, 2020 01:12
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D-Pad posted:Ships radar sees it, fighters scrambled. Fighters radar sees it then pilots see it. Just a sensor ghost folks! It's then reviewed by people possibly up to the secretary level, and no one gets fired for wasting anyones time, meaning these people took it pretty goddamn seriously. but its a blip  Klendathu was a blip until it wasn't, citizen.
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May 3, 2020 01:30
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:It's then reviewed by people possibly up to the secretary level, and no one gets fired for wasting anyones time, meaning these people took it pretty goddamn seriously. but its a blip how could the bugs accelerate an asteroid across the galactic disk? plasma bugs can't warp giant rocks!
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May 3, 2020 01:56
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D-Pad posted:Ships radar sees it, fighters scrambled. Fighters radar sees it then pilots see it. Just a sensor ghost folks! I mean, something can be real and a sensor artifact at the same time. Like it's not hard to imagine some messed up miss calibrated radar showing a bunch of artifacts then flying someone out to look at it, there happening to be something there, and then having all kinds of issues of "this thing I'm looking at doesn't match up with what the sensors said AT ALL". Like you can say multiple things going wrong at once is very unlikely, but so is aliens.
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May 3, 2020 02:02
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D-Pad posted:Ships radar sees it, fighters scrambled. Fighters radar sees it then pilots see it. Just a sensor ghost folks! The new radars were picking them up for weeks, including tracks from the upper atmosphere down to sea level in a couple seconds and slow moving formations of multiple objects. 4 pilots including Fravor eyeball the tic tac in the first sortie to have a look. They get within a couple thousand meters of it before it zooms off almost instantly. They land back on the carrier and Fravor asks the next team going up to try and get video of it, which they do. This is the flir video. I'm not 100% on this but I think these guys never actually see it directly. It only turns up when they train the IR camera exactly where the radar guys tell them to. The radar plane that flies up over the whole battlegroup gets visited by the tic tac at some point too, the craft draws right up next to them, so that's another 4-6 pilot eyewitnesses. So we've got multiple radar tracks over a period of weeks. A dozen witnesses over multiple encounters. And a video of one of them. West never even attempts to engage with this entire picture.
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May 3, 2020 02:40
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Ratios and Tendency posted:The new radars were picking them up for weeks, including tracks from the upper atmosphere down to sea level in a couple seconds and slow moving formations of multiple objects. He simply defeated the idea of hypersonic speed and put rh film in a vacuum. The dude probably hasn't served in the military. To me this situation would have resolved itself by discipline for being a time waster if there wasn't real concernm that's the smoking gun in this. No one was fired no one was doubted. The militarys version of the scientific method was followed by all the verification of information that occured.
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May 3, 2020 03:53
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Ratios and Tendency posted:The new radars were picking them up for weeks, including tracks from the upper atmosphere down to sea level in a couple seconds and slow moving formations of multiple objects. So a faulty new radar system with bad software is acting up, and more than a couple of pilots misidentify normal things as abnormal because they're paying too much heed to what their brand-spanking new computers are saying without bothering to take the steps to confirm it. Not only that, but now the idea is spreading via anecdotes, with of course *never* leads to peer pressure or conformity bias, and people are never mistaken about what they see, right? Look, maybe there's something to this. It's not impossible. But there are better, much more mundane explanations that are at the very least plausible. And I'm going to go with the plausible mundane explanation over the fantastic any day. Unless you have better evidence than blurry IR artifacts and eyewitness testimony, which is notoriously unreliable.
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May 3, 2020 05:26
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ashpanash posted:So a faulty new radar system with bad software is acting up, and more than a couple of pilots misidentify normal things as abnormal because they're paying too much heed to what their brand-spanking new computers are saying without bothering to take the steps to confirm it. Not only that, but now the idea is spreading via anecdotes, with of course *never* leads to peer pressure or conformity bias, and people are never mistaken about what they see, right? The explanation for now can be "we don't know." Sometimes I feel like there's so much push to discredit the idea of aliens that we end up wrapping ourselves around in circles to come up with a mundane explanation. It's not a simple explanation to say that the problem was an ongoing radar glitch combined with constant misidentifications by trained professionals and peer pressure. That's a ton of extra assumptions based on nothing other than wanting to stick it to the aliens crowd. I'm skeptical of radar problems in general because it doesn't sound like the Navy solved any issues with the new system, and it also doesn't sound like they reproduced the glitch that was causing the problem. A systemic radar anomaly isn't something that you're going to just throw your arms up and ignore. Either you continue having the problem or it gets solved, but there's nothing in any of these stories to indicate that Navy radar operators ever identified an issue that was generating these contacts.
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May 3, 2020 05:36
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Still, if I'm observing something that displays behavior that should be physically impossible, like breaking thermodynamics or known laws of motion, I have two options: discard our knowledge of existing physics and assume it's alien technology that's using physics so advanced that it proves all our physics knowledge wrong, or discard my observation on the grounds that there must be something faulty with my measuring tools, or that there's some factor that my measuring tools aren't measuring. I'm going to go with option B every time, because you can't just throw out thermodynamics or Newton's laws, or relativity.
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May 3, 2020 14:14
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DrSunshine posted:Still, if I'm observing something that displays behavior that should be physically impossible, like breaking thermodynamics or known laws of motion, I have two options: discard our knowledge of existing physics and assume it's alien technology that's using physics so advanced that it proves all our physics knowledge wrong, or discard my observation on the grounds that there must be something faulty with my measuring tools, or that there's some factor that my measuring tools aren't measuring. I think you have to take the third option. Make option B your hypothesis and perform further study. While what you've laid out here makes sense, if you discard everything that contradicts your existing knowledge then your existing knowledge becomes your permanent knowledge. There's nothing wrong with assuming option B is the most likely, the issue is people taking a cursory look at what happened, claiming option B and then moving on. That's exactly what this change in reporting procedures by the air Force and the program Harry Reid started is trying to address. We've been claiming option B for years and these incidents keep happening. It's time to at least look into them further and I am glad to see that happening.
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May 3, 2020 14:23
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So how come if heat death involves the universe getting cold but my cold drink gets warm? Is heat death a scam by the dark hole energy consortium?
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May 3, 2020 16:35
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Raenir Salazar posted:So how come if heat death involves the universe getting cold but my cold drink gets warm? Is heat death a scam by the dark hole energy consortium? Black holes are the one thing that survives heat death actually . So do iron stars
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May 3, 2020 19:20
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Black holes are the one thing that survives heat death actually . So do iron stars Black holes eventually evaporate via Hawking radiation after some absurd number (10^100?) of years. Edit: also doesn't true heat death mean all matter has decayed completely? typhus fucked around with this message at 20:38 on May 3, 2020 |
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May 3, 2020 20:35
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The Reaper comes for all.
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May 3, 2020 20:36
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typhus posted:Edit: also doesn't true heat death mean all matter has decayed completely? this assumes protons decay. we don't know if they do. if they don't it's just gonna be iron, emptiness, and nearly non-energetic radiation.
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May 3, 2020 22:08
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dex_sda posted:this assumes protons decay. we don't know if they do. if they don't it's just gonna be iron, emptiness, and nearly non-energetic radiation. It's sorta weird we don't know this. Are we doing anything in particular to find out?
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May 3, 2020 22:39
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It's sorta weird we don't know this. Are we doing anything in particular to find out? we're trying to observe it, the thing is that even if they do their half-life is ridiculously high so you gotta spend a looooong time watching. But yes, we have a lower bound on the decay rate, which is something in the 10 to the 34th seconds range.
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May 3, 2020 22:44
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It's sorta weird we don't know this. Are we doing anything in particular to find out? How do you prove that a proton doesn't decay? The half-life would be like 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years or something. If you wanna get a bunch of protons together and watch em for about a trillion trillion years to see if way less than .000000000001% of them have decayed then go ahead and try. Classon Ave. Robot fucked around with this message at 22:48 on May 3, 2020 |
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May 3, 2020 22:44
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It's sorta weird we don't know this. Are we doing anything in particular to find out? I mean, if they do, they have a half-life of something like 1032 years. Which is 7.24637681x1021 or 724 trillion trillion times the current age of the universe. I'm not sure how you test that.
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May 3, 2020 22:51
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Classon Ave. Robot posted:How do you prove that a proton doesn't decay? The half-life would be like 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years or something. If you wanna get a bunch of protons together and watch em for about a trillion trillion years to see if way less than .000000000001% of them have decayed then go ahead and try. You watch a bunch of them in a very stable environment. Remember, there's a lot of them even in what we would consider a small bit of matter, like 10^24 in a tablespoon of water. So, you wait and see if any of them decay. The nature of decay is probabilistic: if it is a rare decay, it should happen in a huge amount of matter quite rarely, but it should still occasionally happen. To give you an idea, the decay of a uranium-238 atom has half-life of 4.7 billion years; if you had a hunk of uranium on the table, you'd see decay from it more or less constantly. There are experiments to look for proton decay - none of them has found anything. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Nada. That means the decay must be extremely rare or simply doesn't happen naturally.
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May 3, 2020 22:55
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ashpanash posted:You watch a bunch of them in a very stable environment. Remember, there's a lot of them even in what we would consider a small bit of matter, like 10^24 in a tablespoon of water. So, you wait and see if any of them decay. The nature of decay is probabilistic: if it is a rare decay, it should happen in a huge amount of matter quite rarely, but it should still occasionally happen. To give you an idea, the decay of a uranium-238 atom has half-life of 4.7 billion years; if you had a hunk of uranium on the table, you'd see decay from it more or less constantly. I mean that's kinda what I was implying, it was a rhetorical question. Proving it doesn't decay is very hard without a known upper limit on it's half-life, what's the difference between experimental results for no decay or a half life of 10^10^10 years or whatever?
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May 3, 2020 22:58
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Classon Ave. Robot posted:I mean that's kinda what I was implying, it was a rhetorical question. Proving it doesn't decay is very hard without a known upper limit on it's half-life, what's the difference between experimental results for no decay or a half life of 10^10^10 years or whatever? Yeah, practically nothing. Of note is that the Standard Model does not predict proton decay. Only hypothetical GUTs actually predict it. To say that predictions from those sources have been found wanting is a considerable understatement.
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May 3, 2020 23:04
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typhus posted:Black holes eventually evaporate via Hawking radiation after some absurd number (10^100?) of years. True heat death doesn't exist, black holes live untill 10 2400 years iron stars would epoch at about 10 to 2400 years. Also black holes can be fed pretty small amounts of matter and still survive dependent on size. The smaller the hole the less matter required to keep them alive. Holes can also live under for a very long time. Black holes would be the last safe haven of hyper intelligent life in the event of a star epoch. About 30 pages ago I linked a numerical idea of matter to energy ratio for black holes, but 1kg of matter annually could keep a micro society alive inside a computer for "ever" and ever in universe terms is a few hundred trillion years at the least.
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May 4, 2020 00:40
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