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mearn
Aug 2, 2011

Kevin Harvick's #1 Fan!

From what I've heard, it's mainly some of the third-party retailers forcing Disney's hand now that the state has permitted them to reopen. It'll be interesting to see how many actually do open up. I hope whatever happens is as safe as possible, I agree it's too early for this. If this backfires, it sets back everything.

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CelticPredator
Oct 11, 2013
🍀👽🆚🪖🏋

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

gods this is a mistake :smith: 2100 people died yesterday. we're at almost 77,000 dead. this thing isn't slowing down. I hope they're so careful.

For real. I wouldn’t trust this until we have a vaccine or something. Even if you spread it apart, some sick person who didn’t know coughed inside of a gift shop and is floating around and it just goes all up in your mouth

Quixotic1
Jul 25, 2007

Do we know what percentage of WDW/UO visits are international? Since flights are still precipitously empty at least the opening would be mostly Locals?

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
the attendance would be 90% karens from out of state

Quixotic1
Jul 25, 2007

Bottom Liner posted:

the attendance would be 90% karens from out of state

Yeah I take back my locals being the majority thought; Just saw an article headline stating out of state-ers crossing into Georgia for a haircut.

Atricks
Nov 5, 2003
Hurricane Man
Shanghai Disneyland sold out within an hour for the first two weeks of opening, I kind of expect that here too whenever it reopens. The cooped up demand is craazy high.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shanghai-disneyland-tickets-sell-park-060153621.html

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Quixotic1 posted:

Yeah I take back my locals being the majority thought; Just saw an article headline stating out of state-ers crossing into Georgia for a haircut.

We've had literally thousands of SC, TN, and even FL plates up here all crowded around stupid loving hair salons and barbers. I hate them all.

Darth TNT
Sep 20, 2013

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

We've had literally thousands of SC, TN, and even FL plates up here all crowded around stupid loving hair salons and barbers. I hate them all.

Heavens forbid your hair looks like a mess!



Disney springs is just the restaurants and stores part though right? Or did I miss something? I can't imagine huge throngs of people going there when the park itself is still closed. But then again, people are clearly stupid.

mattfl
Aug 27, 2004

Darth TNT posted:

Heavens forbid your hair looks like a mess!



Disney springs is just the restaurants and stores part though right? Or did I miss something? I can't imagine huge throngs of people going there when the park itself is still closed. But then again, people are clearly stupid.

Disney springs used to be jam packed every night. Yeah it's just restaurants and stores but it was always always packed. I've gone nights where there is no parking anywhere!

BlueBayou
Jan 16, 2008
Before she mends must sicken worse

CelticPredator posted:

For real. I wouldn’t trust this until we have a vaccine or something. Even if you spread it apart, some sick person who didn’t know coughed inside of a gift shop and is floating around and it just goes all up in your mouth

Not to get into it too much but that's what the masks are for. If they have a mask on, fewer particles get out. And then if you have a mask on too, fewer get to you. Plus it's not airborne like measles.

Obviously if you don't feel safe, then that's fine. People should do what they need to do to feel safe for them and their families. But that particular version of transmission would be low, though not zero. I'd be far more worried about touching handrails and then your face or something.

I'm really interested to see what happens in Shanghai.

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna

BlueBayou posted:

Plus it's not airborne like measles.


It doesn't have aerosol transmission, but sitting 30+ ft away from someone with it in a restaurant isn't enough distance if the AC is on because the air can carry the droplets so easily if someone were to cough or sneeze. Airborne isn't a scientific term, but if it can be carried through the air by air conditioning, it's best to not say it's not airborne because that makes people have a false sense of safety.

Given the spike in cases in NE Georgia I think they're going to be shutting down again by the end of the month.

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

BlueBayou posted:

Not to get into it too much but that's what the masks are for. If they have a mask on, fewer particles get out. And then if you have a mask on too, fewer get to you. Plus it's not airborne like measles.

Obviously if you don't feel safe, then that's fine. People should do what they need to do to feel safe for them and their families. But that particular version of transmission would be low, though not zero. I'd be far more worried about touching handrails and then your face or something.

I'm really interested to see what happens in Shanghai.

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1251556084424347649

Zero One
Dec 30, 2004

HAIL TO THE VICTORS!

BlueBayou posted:

Not to get into it too much but that's what the masks are for. If they have a mask on, fewer particles get out. And then if you have a mask on too, fewer get to you. Plus it's not airborne like measles.

Obviously if you don't feel safe, then that's fine. People should do what they need to do to feel safe for them and their families. But that particular version of transmission would be low, though not zero. I'd be far more worried about touching handrails and then your face or something.

I'm really interested to see what happens in Shanghai.

One factor for Shanghai is that in addition to masks and cleaning and temperature checks any guests are also required to be using the Chinese Government app that tracks where you are and who you are with and gives you a score on your risk level of being in contact with someone who got sick.

So with tons of people in the US who will not use masks or use them improperly no one is going to be tracked to the level that the Chinese are doing.

BlueBayou
Jan 16, 2008
Before she mends must sicken worse

Zero One posted:

One factor for Shanghai is that in addition to masks and cleaning and temperature checks any guests are also required to be using the Chinese Government app that tracks where you are and who you are with and gives you a score on your risk level of being in contact with someone who got sick.

So with tons of people in the US who will not use masks or use them improperly no one is going to be tracked to the level that the Chinese are doing.

Yeah the aversion to masks (let alone phone tracing) means the US parks won't be able to copy the Chinese protocols. I'm still curious to see how it unfolds. Because if those levels of measures aren't enough, things will look very grim.

Ultimate Mango
Jan 18, 2005

Disneyland resort is taking July reservations now.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

You know what gets me excited? The thought of eating outside at Tony's Town Square at 2pm in the middle of August with a mask on.

Ultimate Mango
Jan 18, 2005

couldcareless posted:

You know what gets me excited? The thought of eating outside at Tony's Town Square at 2pm in the middle of August with a mask on.

With the misters on full blast to ensure complete viral dispersion.

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

couldcareless posted:

You know what gets me excited? The thought of eating outside at Tony's Town Square at 2pm in the middle of August with a mask on.

I imagine mandatory masks won’t be good for food and bev sales.

CelticPredator posted:

For real. I wouldn’t trust this until we have a vaccine or something. Even if you spread it apart, some sick person who didn’t know coughed inside of a gift shop and is floating around and it just goes all up in your mouth

We could be ok with robust testing and contact tracing. Especially if some therapies pan out (remdesivir is nice but it’s not good enough to blunt this the way we need). A vaccine could be a long ways away. Fauci says 12-18 months best case. And even if we get a vaccine what if it’s not super effective, like how the flu vaccine isn’t? Social distancing, contact tracing, and widespread testing all lower the transmission rate. If they’re done well this thing can be beaten back and contained. I’m not sure when we’ll go back to disney and maybe they’ll have to confine small children into Mickey shaped bubbles, but how to do it safely will get figured out vaccine or no.

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Dren posted:

I imagine mandatory masks won’t be good for food and bev sales.


We could be ok with robust testing and contact tracing. Especially if some therapies pan out (remdesivir is nice but it’s not good enough to blunt this the way we need). A vaccine could be a long ways away. Fauci says 12-18 months best case. And even if we get a vaccine what if it’s not super effective, like how the flu vaccine isn’t? Social distancing, contact tracing, and widespread testing all lower the transmission rate. If they’re done well this thing can be beaten back and contained. I’m not sure when we’ll go back to disney and maybe they’ll have to confine small children into Mickey shaped bubbles, but how to do it safely will get figured out vaccine or no.

Two of the biggest issues are that the vaccine may not last long (like you said, with the flu shot) and that people who are getting it seem to keep getting it. There are countless two-case patients. And a lot of three+ case patients. It's like humanity really isn't developing antibodies like it should, and everyone's very concerned about that. If we can't build antibodies on the level we have to, we're real screwed.

Meanwhile, every third person is running around with no mask, no gloves, no social distancing in my area and I don't know what's going to happen when, in a month or two, we're just seeing thousands dead per day in the -state-, much less the country. Because that's what the logical conclusion of this is based on every single friggin' model basing it on what we know about the virus.

I have no idea why everyone suddenly decided things were okay almost 80,000 US corpses into this.

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
You have sources for that regarding antibodies or reinfection? All cases I’ve seen with reinfection were false positives or otherwise faulty testing and antibodies seem to be strong.

After Recovery From the Coronavirus, Most People Carry Antibodies
A new study adds to evidence of immunity among those who have already been exposed to the pathogen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/health/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence.html

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

There’s absolutely no evidence of rapid re-infection. The media loves to hysterically report every single tentative hypothesis as if it’s absolute fact. Every person who was “re-infected” turned out to just have the equivalent of dead viruses that the tests still detected.

Empress Brosephine
Mar 31, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Just drove to Florida from NH, there's definitely a tonal shift once you hit south Virginia. No one is wearing masks and barely any social distancing. Especially here in Florida, where apparently dine in restaurants are allowed?

Braksgirl
Dec 25, 2010

Unofficial Goon Disney travel agent since 2014!

Tens of Goons served!


Good ol' Florida.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

Empress Brosephine posted:

Just drove to Florida from NH, there's definitely a tonal shift once you hit south Virginia. No one is wearing masks and barely any social distancing. Especially here in Florida, where apparently dine in restaurants are allowed?

Us southerners aren't too bright...

Clawtopsy
Dec 17, 2009

What a fascinatingly unusual cock. Now, allow me to show you my collection...
https://wdwnt.com/2020/05/walt-disney-world-now-only-accepting-reservations-for-july-1st-and-later-due-to-ongoing-closure/

When does Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party usually start again?

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert


The first ones start around the 3rd week of August. The first one in 2019 was August 16th. I think they do 2 or 3 a week until closer to Halloween and then they do 4 a week.


I feel August is a little early, but people buy the tickets

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

So far Wine Bar George and STK are the only restaurants confirmed to be reopening on the 20th.

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Bottom Liner posted:

You have sources for that regarding antibodies or reinfection? All cases I’ve seen with reinfection were false positives or otherwise faulty testing and antibodies seem to be strong.

After Recovery From the Coronavirus, Most People Carry Antibodies
A new study adds to evidence of immunity among those who have already been exposed to the pathogen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/health/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence.html

US hasn't had it long enough but China and Italy were both reporting it. I'll see what I can find in English. Will edit when I do

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!
I believe the only reported reinfections were being studied in South Korea and it was determined that these were due to false reporting and thus not actually reinfections. There has literally been no other talk about reinfections and though it's not out of the question that reinfection is possible, there is also evidence that there is some some level of herd immunity that is noticeable in places like Sweden or heavily infected US regions like NYC.

I get being worried about this, but it's probably better to take mind with what the CDC and other health professionals are reporting before freaking out.

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

I've seen all of the news articles claiming reinfection. Every single one of them was the news reporting a non-peer-reviewed initial report that merely stated that infected survivors who tested negative then tested positive again. In every single case, virologists had to come in and point out that this is completely expected because the test for the virus doesn't detect whether it's alive and infectious or dead. There's also the problem that some tests are inherently not 100% perfect, so a person who was still infectious could have accidentally been deemed cured and released. In many cases, the person who suddenly "got reinfected" was not infecting other people and not showing symptoms, indicating that the test was likely giving a false positive based on viral remnants.

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

I should point out that these kinds of articles are really common and very dangerous. If you ever see an article making a claim about the virus suddenly displaying a new and unexpected property, look up the study yourself or find a virologist on social media (a ton of them are posting on Twitter about this to spread correct information) and ask them if they can talk about it. Most of them are journalists taking a single study with very shaky data, often with statistically insignificant numbers, and reporting it as if it's fact. There was one article that claimed something like a 20% chance of survival for those on ventilators, only to have to turn around and retract it because the study was massively incomplete and the number was actually around 80% survival once they finished surveying all the patients.

Possibly the worst one I've seen (other than the reinfection claims) was a claim in one paper that COVID-19 is "airborne HIV", destroying your white blood cells. Some people spread it on Twitter, further fueling hysteria that the world was ending, before someone actually read the study and found where they said "Actually it doesn't do that any more than any previous virus."

Empress Brosephine
Mar 31, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
We went into a (dead) mall today (crystal River) and sat down and ate at a restaurant. Was kind of surreal....i think the Disney springs opening will go okay

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

TheBigBudgetSequel
Nov 25, 2008

It's not who I am underneath, but what I do that defines me.
Like, in the ride pod? Did he make THAT good of a roller coaster?

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug
I wonder if nintendoland is gonna get animal crossing now

Boxman
Sep 27, 2004

Big fan of :frog:


I can’t imagine what an attraction based on AC would even look like, but the villagers could have been designed from the ground up as fur character meets. I’d be genuinely surprised if you couldn’t meet Tom Nook and Isabelle at some point.

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

Dren posted:

I wonder if nintendoland is gonna get animal crossing now

When you enter the Animal Crossing part of the park, you are assigned $98 of debt. You aren’t allowed to ride or leave until you pay off the debt, which is at least interest-free.

Also, there’s gambling/stalk trading.

Nikaer Drekin
Oct 11, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020

Boxman posted:

I can’t imagine what an attraction based on AC would even look like, but the villagers could have been designed from the ground up as fur character meets. I’d be genuinely surprised if you couldn’t meet Tom Nook and Isabelle at some point.

A Kapp'n boat ride in the vein of Small World would be a pretty good fit - something like that would nail the games' relaxing tone.

Atricks
Nov 5, 2003
Hurricane Man
So far for disney springs on the 20th: Wolfgang Puck Bar and Grill, STK, Wine Bar George, Häagen-Daz, and Anthropologie. Possible, but not guaranteed, Blaze, Planet Hollywood, and Chicken Guy.
Definitely not: Any Disney owned store/restaurant, AMC, NBA, Splitsville, Morimoto, and Raglan Road. Everything else, unknown but a few others may join in later. CityWalk hasn't announced anything yet, but they will in the next day or two according to their official twitter.

Expect a lot more to be open by the end of the Month, though. Logistically getting everything reopen is going to be a nightmare.

Atricks fucked around with this message at 22:44 on May 11, 2020

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Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

Nikaer Drekin posted:

A Kapp'n boat ride in the vein of Small World would be a pretty good fit - something like that would nail the games' relaxing tone.

small world but animal crossing would be dope

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