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Who will you vote for in 2020? This poll is closed. |
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| Biden |
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425 | 18.06% |
| Trump |
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105 | 4.46% |
| whoever the Green Party runs |
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307 | 13.05% |
| GOOGLE RON PAUL |
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151 | 6.42% |
| Bernie Sanders |
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346 | 14.70% |
| Stalin |
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246 | 10.45% |
| Satan |
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300 | 12.75% |
| Nobody |
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202 | 8.58% |
| Jess Scarane |
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110 | 4.67% |
| mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party |
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61 | 2.59% |
| Dick Nixon |
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100 | 4.25% |
| Total: | 2089 votes | ||
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Eminai posted:They were less "fired up" in 2018 than Dem voters were. That does not seem like it will be the case in 2020. It is not a situation where the Dems have a slight turnout tiebreaker if they are both enthusiastic. The Dems have a large numerical advantage that only fails during outright apathy. You don't get more "we DGAF about this presidential election" vs enthusiasm from the GOP than 2016, and the Dems still nearly won.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:16
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Rigel posted:It is not a situation where the Dems have a slight turnout tiebreaker if they are both enthusiastic. The Dems have a large numerical advantage that only fails during outright apathy. You don't get more "we DGAF about this presidential election" vs enthusiasm from the GOP than 2016, and the Dems still nearly won. Dem enthusiasm is currently lower than the lowest point in 2016, so we very well might "get more "we DGAF about this presidential election"".
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Jun 4, 2020 22:35
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Eminai posted:Dem enthusiasm is currently lower than the lowest point in 2016, so we very well might "get more "we DGAF about this presidential election"". There is no objective reason at all to believe this is true, and every reason to believe the exact opposite. Objective: 2018, polls, Biden doesn't have sky-high disapproval ratings like Clinton did, etc. For non-objective reasons people are not going to go from screaming at Trump in protests and getting arrested for it, to then simply go "meh" at the election. They'll vote to spite him if for no other reason. Rigel fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 22:38
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Rigel posted:There is no objective reason at all to believe this is true, and every reason to believe the exact opposite. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story?id=69812092 quote:Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%. 
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Jun 4, 2020 22:39
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Eminai posted:Dem enthusiasm is currently lower than the lowest point in 2016, so we very well might "get more "we DGAF about this presidential election"". Biden is ahead by 8-10 points.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:41
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Eminai posted:https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story?id=69812092 I'm talking about enthusiasm to vote, and in this case there is a very strong enthusiasm to vote against Trump.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:41
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evilweasel posted:Biden is ahead by 8-10 points. if all the people they polled bother to turn out
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Jun 4, 2020 22:49
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evilweasel posted:Biden is ahead by 8-10 points. He's ahead now while he still technically isn't the Democratic Nominee yet. His numbers are going to eat poo poo once the media doesn't need to keep him propped up long enough for the DNC to officially coronate him; Either because they need to propagate the "it's a neck and neck horse race" between the two, or in order to smooth the way for whoever replaces him as the candidate once the convention is over and Tara Reade magically becomes credible to them.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:54
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rko posted:E: ^^^ it won’t be as bad as it could be, because Biden remains quite good at the kind of personal interactions that Trump has never been able to do. Very true. Biden has the kind of hands-on approach that helps him get close to voters. He has a good feel for what they really want deep down. Definitely passes the sniff test.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:57
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the_steve posted:He's ahead now while he still technically isn't the Democratic Nominee yet. Donald Trump is in the weakest re-elect position of any incumbent president in the entire modern history of polling. He's in worse shape than Carter and GHWB. Biden's numbers have been steady all year, there is no reason to believe that will change after the nomination, and the voters simply do not care at all about the Tara Reade allegations amidst a depression, a pandemic, riots, and a president Trump.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:58
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Jewel Repetition posted:Very true. Biden has the kind of hands-on approach that helps him get close to voters. He has a good feel for what they really want deep down. Definitely passes the sniff test. He's got his fingers on the pulse of America.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:01
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Jewel Repetition posted:Very true. Biden has the kind of hands-on approach that helps him get close to voters. He has a good feel for what they really want deep down. Definitely passes the sniff test. I think he can really penetrate through all the pussy footing.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:02
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Rigel posted:Donald Trump is in the weakest re-elect position of any incumbent president in the entire modern history of polling. He's in worse shape than Carter and GHWB. Biden's numbers have been steady all year, there is no reason to believe that will change after the nomination, and the voters simply do not care at all about the Tara Reade allegations amidst a depression, a pandemic, riots, and a president Trump. Trump has been a bonaza for the media; the only reason why Reade isn't bigger is because that gravy train isn't threatened yet.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:04
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Rigel posted:Donald Trump is in the weakest re-elect position of any incumbent president in the entire modern history of polling. He's in worse shape than Carter and GHWB. Biden's numbers have been steady all year, there is no reason to believe that will change after the nomination, and the voters simply do not care at all about the Tara Reade allegations amidst a depression, a pandemic, riots, and a president Trump. the reasons to believe that will change after the nomination were just provided to you, for similar reasons to why Hillary Clinton's emails went from "who gives a poo poo" to the alpha and omega of all political discussion shortly following the convention your being uncomfortable with what it would mean if those were correct does not cause them to cease to exist
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Jun 4, 2020 23:04
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The New York Times is currently calling for the US military to gun down protesters in the street with no quarter, so I expect they'll suddenly find Tara Reade credible the instant it's too late to replace Biden, much like Hillary's emails because the scandal of the century as soon as the danger of a Democratic candidate inconvenient to corporate power had passed.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:07
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StratGoatCom posted:Trump has been a bonaza for the media; the only reason why Reade isn't bigger is because that gravy train isn't threatened yet. Exactly. For all their outrage and tsk-tsk'ing, the media loves Trump because he generates clicks for them every time he opens his mouth or opens Twitter. And the reason people don't care about Tara Reade yet is because the media has minimized the hell out of her with all of the concern trolling articles about how she lied to a landlord once. Once the election is in full swing, there's going to be a goddamn conga line of Biden accusers, along with attack ads using Franken and Weinstein and everybody else who was brought down on the Blue team.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:10
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:the reasons to believe that will change after the nomination were just provided to you, for similar reasons to why Hillary Clinton's emails went from "who gives a poo poo" to the alpha and omega of all political discussion shortly following the convention The reasons provided are not plausible and ignore the weight of objective data. Namely that Biden is in vastly better shape than Hillary ever was, he's been beating the hell out of Trump all year in the polls even months after he has been known by voters as the presumptive nominee under attack by the incumbent, that 2018 "doesn't count" and should be disregarded for.... reasons, that Trump has the highest 1st term disapproval ratings ever, the subjective facts on the ground as we speak, it goes on and on. There's really no reason to believe as of June 4th that Biden is going to abruptly and inexplicably tank. There are reasons to want to believe that sure, but no evidence for it based upon much more than a gut feeling.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:12
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the idea the media is lying in wait to take down Biden from a hilarious lead, but not until the convention because they’re saving their power while he’s not ‘technically’ the nominee to ensure a horse race, is some q-tier poo poo like even in your loony conspiracy universe, do you think the media might find a will he or won’t he actually get the nomination what if there is a contested convention who will win horse race to be helpful for the ratings who exactly wants them to wait until exactly after the convention, when it is well understood Obama defined and buried Romney right about now
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Jun 4, 2020 23:16
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The logical window has passed. It was definitely a story before covid. The Roy Moore accuser didn't start getting traction until additional accusers came forward, including multiple people recalling his mall ban etc. The yearbook was only significant because it was tangible evidence he lied about knowing her. If he'd said he'd known her but didn't rape her it wouldn't have mattered. There was an obvious snowball progression. Even then many people did not believe it. Franken was damned by the photo. Biden May end up having this problem but it will require re-starting the momentum outside its usual window and/or photo evidence or physical evidence that he committed the act. Unlike Moore, he doesn't deny she worked for him or that he'd have encountered her at some point so the evidence has to pertain specifically to a sexual assault.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:17
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Again, I think making any major projections in the middle of a global pandemic, economic crash, and week long rioting is just hubris. Nobody has any loving clue what is going to happen, and using current polling to project who or what is going to happen in 5 months is laughable.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:18
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Again, I think making any major projections in the middle of a global pandemic, economic crash, and week long rioting is just hubris. Nobody has any loving clue what is going to happen, and using current polling to project who or what is going to happen in 5 months is laughable. oh I’m not guaranteeing Biden will win but I am saying doomsaying about how he is losing right now has a little problem with the fact that he is currently winning by a historically hilariously huge margin at this point of the race
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Jun 4, 2020 23:21
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Rigel posted:yeah, ok. That does not conflict with my post at all. https://twitter.com/gavinmuellerphd/status/1268412695415586818 feels like this represents everything p. well honestly.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:22
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Again, I think making any major projections in the middle of a global pandemic, economic crash, and week long rioting is just hubris. Nobody has any loving clue what is going to happen, and using current polling to project who or what is going to happen in 5 months is laughable. We're not saying the election is over. We are saying that no president in the last century has been in worse 1st-term shape than Trump is right now, and he is definitively an underdog. Its not a blind coin flip and its not a situation where we can say nothing is knowable. We are at the point now where if Biden goes on to somehow lose, given where things are at now, then it would arguably be the most spectacular political failure of any candidate or political party in the entire 244-year history of the Republic.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:23
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Rigel posted:We're not saying the election is over. We are saying that no president in the last century has been in worse 1st-term shape than Trump is right now, and he is definitively an underdog. And yet the Democratic leadership seems determined to make that spectacular political failure happen. I still think Biden has a better-than-even chance of winning, purely because the economy is going to be in bad shape by November, but boy howdy, he is trying, with all his might, to lose. If he wins, it won't be because he made any right moves, because at this rate, he won't.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:26
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I still think it's a toss-up but Biden doomsaying right now requires considerable justification.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:27
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Majorian posted:And yet the Democratic leadership seems determined to make that spectacular political failure happen. I still think Biden has a better-than-even chance of winning, purely because the economy is going to be in bad shape by November, but boy howdy, he is trying, with all his might, to lose. I dunno, I think him hiding in a bunker is the most effective tactic. You saw what happened when he actually speaks, he advocated shooting civilians. He's such a fantastic turd that the best thing they can do is cover it with a towel and hope you forget the stink by November.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:28
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Majorian posted:And yet the Democratic leadership seems determined to make that spectacular political failure happen. I still think Biden has a better-than-even chance of winning, purely because the economy is going to be in bad shape by November, but boy howdy, he is trying, with all his might, to lose. If he wins, it won't be because he made any right moves, because at this rate, he won't. We could be pretty screwed in 2024 if he wins this year and then wants a 2nd term
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Jun 4, 2020 23:28
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Rigel posted:We could be pretty screwed in 2024 if he wins this year and then wants a 2nd term He has very publicly stated that he intends on running for a second term. So...
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Jun 4, 2020 23:29
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Cpt_Obvious posted:He has very publicly stated that he intends on running for a second term. So... This is inaccurate.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:30
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Rigel posted:The reasons provided are not plausible and ignore the weight of objective data. Namely that Biden is in vastly better shape than Hillary ever was, Only true if you only look and polls and ignore enthusiasm/money/volunteering. quote:he's been beating the hell out of Trump all year in the polls even months after he has been known by voters as the presumptive nominee under attack by the incumbent, He's had a consistent lead, that's true, but the most recent national poll that came out is only Biden +3 and in the most polls his lead is within the margin of error. quote:that 2018 "doesn't count" and should be disregarded for.... reasons, 2018 should not be taken of predictive of the Presidential election for the same reason that 2010 didn't predict 2012 and 1994 didn't predict 1996. quote:that Trump has the highest 1st term disapproval ratings ever, the subjective facts on the ground as we speak, it goes on and on. Nobody's going to say he's going to inexplicably tank, they are, in fact, saying he's going to explicably tank and then offering up explanations for why. Just because you don't agree with those points doesn't mean they don't exist.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:32
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That's why we use combined polls and weight by the bias of those pollsters. Currently the average on RCP is still +7.2 which is absurdly high.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:35
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Pick posted:This is inaccurate. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-campaign-refutes-speculation-one-term-pledge-n1099766 quote:WASHINGTON — Joe Biden denied Wednesday that he’s discussed making a pledge to serve only one term if elected president, rejecting a published report that it remained a consideration. Did he change his tune?
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Jun 4, 2020 23:35
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Cpt_Obvious posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-campaign-refutes-speculation-one-term-pledge-n1099766 He's saying with words (you can read them) that he is not committing to limit himself at this time. That is not the same as your claim that he openly said he WOULD aim for two terms.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:37
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Pick posted:That's why we use combined polls and weight by the bias of those pollsters. Currently the average on RCP is still +7.2 which is absurdly high. Yeah, sorry, I meant to go back to that and elaborate but forgot. His most recent poll shouldn't be weighted heavier than the average, but could be indicative that his recent bump was an aberration and not the new normal, and this poll is the beginning of returning to that. As for your second point, I don't think unskewing polls ever turns out well and would not recommend basing your analysis on it.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:39
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Pick posted:He's saying with words (you can read them) that he is not committing to limit himself at this time. That is not the same as your claim that he openly said he WOULD aim for two terms. Which words? Can you post those words that Joe Biden is saying and printing? Because I could not find them. I only found a few things his campaign advisor said he should commit to, but the only statement he's made is that he will not pledge to a single term. Which implies that he intends on two.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:41
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Eminai posted:Yeah, sorry, I meant to go back to that and elaborate but forgot. His most recent poll shouldn't be weighted heavier than the average, but could be indicative that his recent bump was an aberration and not the new normal, and this poll is the beginning of returning to that. As for your second point, I don't think unskewing polls ever turns out well and would not recommend basing your analysis on it.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:43
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Which words? Can you post those words that Joe Biden is saying and printing? Because I could not find them. I only found a few things his campaign advisor said he should commit to, but the only statement he's made is that he will not pledge to a single term. Which implies that he intends on two. I have never posted a picture of a gerbil on this website. I don't really like gerbils, so I don't intend to. However, I will not  to the fact that I will never post a picture of a gerbil. This does not mean I'm going to post a picture of a gerbil.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:43
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Pick posted:I have never posted a picture of a gerbil on this website. I don't really like gerbils, so I don't intend to. However, I will not commit to the fact that I will never post a picture of a gerbil. This does not mean I'm going to post a picture of a gerbil. Yes. Yes it loving does. Also, where are those words that Biden said.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:45
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Rigel posted:We're not saying the election is over. We are saying that no president in the last century has been in worse 1st-term shape than Trump is right now, and he is definitively an underdog. You keep saying this but it's not objectively true. The truth is, there are a variety of signals out there, some indicate a good position for Trump, some a good position for Biden. A strong point against Biden is enthusiasm for him is dogshit, even in comparison to Clinton. Before the markets tanked in March, you could make a strong argument that Trump was in the strongest position for reelection relative to any other incumbent in the last century.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:45
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Eminai posted:Only true if you only look and polls and ignore enthusiasm/money/volunteering. If only we had a very recent example of if joe biden could give someone with more enthusiasm/money/volunteering an atomic-sized wedgie just by being ahead in the polls
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Jun 4, 2020 23:45
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