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Alchenar posted:What wasn't stagnant about the Nikkei from 1991-2020? Well from 2011 to now it went from 9700 to 22325. Sure though let's change the statement to 1991 which had it at about 24000, then yes it is "stagnant", other than all the ups and downs.
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Jun 2, 2020 19:24
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pmchem posted:What exactly was stagnant about the Nikkei from 2011-2020? The growth rate
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Jun 2, 2020 19:28
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spwrozek posted:Well from 2011 to now it went from 9700 to 22325. Sure though let's change the statement to 1991 which had it at about 24000, then yes it is "stagnant", other than all the ups and downs. It’s quite possible to cherry pick date ranges but market *trends* (e.g. stagnation, stagflation) are typically discussed in bull and bear runs. When discussing the S&P 500, most discussion these days is about recovery from the current crisis, or about performance since the 2008 financial crisis. Very few comparisons are made from, say, the 2000 dot com bust to 2020. Nikkei growth was pretty good recently. Silicon Valley’s was better. But other than a few tech stocks of ours, Nikkei did quite well vs. USA in the latest global bull market. If you want to get serious about cherry picking long term investment comparisons, some hilariously unfair and silly arguments can be made for everyone to just hold treasury bonds.
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Jun 2, 2020 20:06
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Yup, Perry much right on.
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Jun 2, 2020 20:46
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I’ve got your stagnant growth right here, bucko.
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Jun 2, 2020 21:24
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pmchem posted:You have a very reasonable train of thought. Honestly, i think the options day trading people have more of an edge with their uber specific stocks than someone who is trying to predict long term global economic ramifications based on "hurr we didn't covid good like these other countries"
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Jun 2, 2020 21:33
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Hey, not sure if this is the right place, but i couldn't find a specific thread for real estate investing, so asking here: can anyone recommend some online resources to get acquainted with the basics etc.? Thanks in advance.
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Jun 3, 2020 19:57
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Pretty sure there was a real estate thread wasn't there? I don't think it had a lot of activity so maybe it's gone now. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3548312&pagenumber=21&perpage=40 Found it. It might have some commerical RE too can't remember if there or a different thread. Edit 2: oh... It got really dramatic. Sorry maybe there is some content that is useful before the class war. Xguard86 fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Jun 3, 2020 |
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Jun 3, 2020 21:36
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Xali posted:Hey, not sure if this is the right place, but i couldn't find a specific thread for real estate investing, so asking here: can anyone recommend some online resources to get acquainted with the basics etc.? I’m still meaning to make a commercial real estate thread, what are you looking for? I did something of a write-up in the home buying thread that I linked here if you filter my posts in this thread. Online resources I’ll put something together this evening.
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Jun 3, 2020 21:52
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Xguard86 posted:Pretty sure there was a real estate thread wasn't there? I don't think it had a lot of activity so maybe it's gone now. FactsAreUseless posted:There is not going to be a situation, at least not for a long time, where this thread can exist on SA and not be a huge mess. 
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Jun 3, 2020 22:23
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Xali posted:Hey, not sure if this is the right place, but i couldn't find a specific thread for real estate investing, so asking here: can anyone recommend some online resources to get acquainted with the basics etc.? lol the landlord thread went south fast
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Jun 3, 2020 22:24
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It's been a year since the landlord thread already?? I hope those forum raiders got the medication they required & are doing well
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Jun 3, 2020 22:25
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:It's been a year since the landlord thread already?? I hope those forum raiders got the medication they required & are doing well come join us in the cool zone and find out
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Jun 3, 2020 22:26
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A MIRACLE posted:come join us in the cool zone and find out Only thing I know about the cool zone is that an anime avatar made it up and then Vice used it without giving them money. Gotta pay the man, Vice
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Jun 3, 2020 22:33
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Only thing I know about the cool zone is that an anime avatar made it up and then Vice used it without giving them money. Gotta pay the man, Vice Extremely lol at Vice snatching that content
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Jun 3, 2020 22:40
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:It's been a year since the landlord thread already?? I hope those forum raiders got the medication they required & are doing well Narrator: They didn’t, and they aren’t
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Jun 3, 2020 22:48
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That thread had some poo poo slumlords that were congratulated on their margins. There are a lot of ways people make money in this forum that ultimately come off the backs of the poor locally and globally, but being a slumlord is one of the more visible and sleazy ways people experience it, so the backlash makes sense. Some people were definitely over the top, but that thread kinda sucked.sleepy gary posted:A $35,000 3-bedroom rental infested with mice makes you a slumlord, I'm sorry. I'm not judging by any means though. There's a lot more profit margin in owning places like that than nicer places.
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Jun 4, 2020 14:17
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Talking with my brother, he apparently got setup with a Nicholas Fund and it's been his primary investment account for a while. I had no idea til today when we were talking. Poking around all the Nicholas Funds (not sure which one he has, he's sending me the details)... they seem to be terrible funds?
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Jun 5, 2020 02:27
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.72 expense ratio is pretty terrible, yeah.
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Jun 5, 2020 03:15
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For my 403(b) and Roth, I try to max out the 403(b), if I can do that I put something in the Roth. This year I will definitely not be able to max out the 403(b). I'm assuming that my tax rate in retirement will be lower, so I'm only going to put money into the Roth in the future if I'm able to max out the 403(b) first. I'm wondering if I should hedge my bets a little though, but I'm not sure. In the previous three years I've maxed the Roth, then put 10-15K in the 403(b). In those three years I did 5500 each year for the Roth. It looks like I have until July 15th to put something in the Roth if I want for tax year 2019. If I did contribute it would probably be a small amount like 1K given the economic situation. Anyway my question is, in what situation would a Roth be beneficial to a 403(b), i.e. in what situation would my tax rate be higher in retirement? I can't see how it would be anything but lower, since if I was retired I wouldn't have any full-time work income. I suppose I could have income from other sources, though nothing that would reach that level. I don't own any capital :p One other thing, I can do a SEPP with a 403(b) but not a Roth, which is definitely another argument in favor of the former over the latter (again, if I have to choose, which I typically do). I do understand that I can withdraw from a Roth before 59.5 years of age, but it's only penalty free if I take the contributions, not any earnings. both the 403(b) and Roth are similar Vanguard Index funds (VSMPX and VTSAX), and have 0.02 and 0.04 expense ratios. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Jun 5, 2020 |
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Jun 5, 2020 04:56
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actionjackson posted:Anyway my question is, in what situation would a Roth be beneficial to a 403(b), i.e. in what situation would my tax rate be higher in retirement? I can't see how it would be anything but lower, since if I was retired I wouldn't have any full-time work income. I suppose I could have income from other sources, though nothing that would reach that level. I don't own any capital :p I don't think I will be answering your question about Roth IRA vs. Traditional contributions to 403(b)/401(k) plans in the following. I instead will be talking about the decision to fund a 401(k)/403(b) with tax-deferred contributions (Traditional) vs. Roth contributions, where you pay tax on the income which you put into the 401(k)/403(b) account, but when you withdraw it in retirement, you do not pay any income tax. When you reach retirement age, you will be forced to make minimum withdrawals from your traditional, tax-deferred IRA/401(k)/403(b) accounts, so that the government can finally collect its tax revenues. These are called RMDs, Required Minimum Distributions. I once did a calculation with the Vanguard RMD calculator, (I can't find it anymore--it might be hidden behind a subscription service) and it told me that if I kept maxing out a traditional 401k, and if I got a 4% return on investment every year, my RMDs in retirement would be higher than my current salary. Assuming that the tax rate doesn't change (big assumption, obviously), this would mean that I would be forced to pay a higher effective tax rate in retirement than now, and then it might make sense for me to mostly make Roth contributions to my 401k, where I pay the tax now, but in retirement, I would be able to withdraw the money tax free. I think the way the calculation works out is that making Roth contributions to 401ks/403(b)s only makes sense if you are not in the top income brackets, and you are also consistently saving near the max amount in the government retirement accounts.
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Jun 5, 2020 14:48
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Thanks, I'm planning to retire before that age and do a SEPP though. My understanding is that if I decide to retire at age 50, once I decided how much to take from the SEPP, I have to continue taking that amount until age 59.5 or else there is a penalty. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-substantially-equal-periodic-payments I've also read that you can only use the SEPP on part of the account balance, and let the rest continue to grow, but I should talk to an advisor about that. My understanding is also since I can't do the SEPP with a Roth, I won't be able to get to any of that money until I'm 59.5. Or at the least, I won't be able to get to the earnings. I did find the kind of calculator you are talking about https://americanfundsretirement.retire.americanfunds.com/tools/calculators/roth-401k.htm I did an example with a full 19K contribution, 13 years to retirement, 8% return currently, my current tax rate 22%, 30 annual withdrawals, 6% return in retirement, and a higher tax rate in retirement (25%). After taking into account the extra money gained in the traditional that was not taxed initially, the roth would give about 3k vs. 2750 for the traditional annually. So an advantage but not huge. If I change it so I have the same tax rate in retirement, I get about $1k extra a year with the Roth. The tipping point (where the traditional beats the Roth) seems to be a retirement tax rate of about 17% or so. Thank you for bringing this all to my attention, it's interesting to consider. I'm glad at least it doesn't make an ENORMOUS difference so I don't feel like I screwed myself. Thankfully I have a decent chunk in my "other" Roth already, it's like 180k 403(b) all traditional, 100k separate Roth. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Jun 5, 2020 |
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Jun 5, 2020 17:25
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actionjackson posted:Thanks, I'm planning to retire before that age and do a SEPP though. My understanding is that if I decide to retire at age 50, once I decided how much to take from the SEPP, I have to continue taking that amount until age 59.5 or else there is a penalty. One often unmentioned benefit of doing Traditional contributions into your employer's plan is that it lowers your AGI and helps keep you under the limit for Roth IRA contributions if you already have some money in Traditional IRAs that you're not in a position to convert or transfer. I don't have any reason to believe this is your scenario, but I like bringing it up.
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Jun 5, 2020 17:31
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Yeah for sure, my thought (in an ideal world), is start a SEPP at age 50, and then I can start taking additional tax-free income from the Roth at age 59.5 Of course we are in hellworld so I'll probably have no money and be dead first, but I can dream
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Jun 5, 2020 17:51
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actionjackson posted:https://americanfundsretirement.retire.americanfunds.com/tools/calculators/roth-401k.htm Huh, this calculator, ignoring the tax rate stuff, calculates the max amount of money you can withdraw each year so that when you die in X years, your retirement account balance is zero. This is not the RMD if I'm understanding correctly. Although it makes sense for the government to design the RMD so that they aren't that different, where they determine X based on average lifespan. I'm starting to think that maybe I misinterpreted the old Vanguard calculator result.
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Jun 5, 2020 18:27
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silence_kit posted:Huh, this calculator, ignoring the tax rate stuff, calculates the max amount of money you can withdraw each year so that when you die in X years, your retirement account balance is zero. This is not the RMD if I'm understanding correctly. Although it makes sense for the government to design the RMD so that they aren't that different, where they determine X based on average lifespan. I'm starting to think that maybe I misinterpreted the old Vanguard calculator result. I think this calculator is just to compare the effect of traditional vs. Roth contributions on how much money you have when you want to start withdrawing. However you are right in that it asks about the number of yearly withdrawals. I still think this is very useful for my question though. If you look at the default example, it looks like it says you will get about 14,750 a year for 20 years with a Roth, and just under 14k a year for 20 years with traditional. Here's a SEPP (72t) calculator, where RMD is one of the three options you have for taking money out early of a traditional IRA (in my case, my 403(b) traditional contributions and earnings): https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/72t actionjackson fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Jun 5, 2020 |
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Jun 5, 2020 18:53
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I did also run an example using the Fidelity calculator that's part of my work plan. It let's you model different combinations of traditional and Roth 403(b) combos. I used 94k salary (not my salary  ), 13 years until retirement, 8% return, equal tax rates now and in retirement (22%)If 20% traditional, 0% roth: ~58k take home pay ~39600 qualified withdrawal If 10% each: ~56k take home pay ~45200 withdrawal If 20% roth, 0% traditional ~54k take home pay ~50800 withdrawal These are just lump sums though. I'm not sure how useful this calculator really is as it doesn't let me input how much money is already in my account. So yes, you would get more at retirement with 20% roth, however you would also get 4k less in pay now. And given my situation, that 4k would probably be 4k less that I'd be investing. That amount is what I think is represented by the lighter blue here. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Jun 5, 2020 |
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Jun 5, 2020 19:07
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I just noticed how large the federal tax brackets are. for single: 12% $9,701–$39,475 22% $39,476–$84,200 it's very likely then that I will be in the same bracket, i.e. 22-22, or perhaps 24-22 if I get a raise ever. So doing some roth contributions is definitely something to consider. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Jun 7, 2020 |
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Jun 7, 2020 21:05
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Keep in mind that tax law might be different by the time you retire. By all means, plan ahead, but it's not as simple as just solving a mathematical optimization problem.
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Jun 7, 2020 22:43
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raminasi posted:Keep in mind that tax law might be different by the time you retire. By all means, plan ahead, but it's not as simple as just solving a mathematical optimization problem. Oh of course I totally agree, just thinking about it that's all. It would be good to also find out if the tax rate in retirement is based on the SEPP withdrawal per year - I could see how you could choose a SEPP to give an amount that would land you in a lower bracket. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Jun 7, 2020 |
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Jun 7, 2020 22:52
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actionjackson posted:Oh of course I totally agree, just thinking about it that's all. You know that tax brackets are applied marginally, right?
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Jun 7, 2020 23:41
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raminasi posted:You know that tax brackets are applied marginally, right? Any time someone talks about doing something to intentionally affect their tax bracket they absolutely do not know that.
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Jun 7, 2020 23:43
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raminasi posted:You know that tax brackets are applied marginally, right? oh yeah that slipped my mind haha. I'm an idiot. And yeah the calculator doesn't seem to take that into account, it just applies the rate to all income. Good catch! It is still true though that if you have less income in retirement than you do now, that that benefits the traditional contributions. If someone made say 90k/year, and did a SEPP at retirement where they were taking 40k/year, traditional would be better. actionjackson fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Jun 8, 2020 |
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Jun 8, 2020 00:42
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I plan on increasing my contribution to social services & security by making more money and getting into a higher tax bracket
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Jun 8, 2020 01:03
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Hoodwinker posted:I think there's at least some value in a mix of tax treatments in order to mitigate policy risk, but admittedly the difference is probably small. To me, there's benefit to having a little bit of flexibility in roughly what tax rate I want to pay, as I can plan to convert during years of lower income if the opportunity presents itself and guarantee I pay a rate lower than I would pay right now on Roth contributions. I haven't done the math but I'm sure there's some difference to calculate on the taxes paid on growth there, as Roth contributions at X% rate now with 0% taxes on growth might eclipse Traditional contributions at 0% rate now with Y% taxes on growth later. This is kind of what I'm getting at - I did request some info about conversion, so that is always an option for me later. But also yeah, I would definitely expect my yearly income to be quite a bit less using a SEPP. I remember looking at one example of having 1m at age 50, and the SEPP amounts per year were 42k at most.
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Jun 8, 2020 02:24
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actionjackson posted:oh yeah that slipped my mind haha. I'm an idiot. If you will receive social security, and if that puts you near the 22% bracket already, then it's true that most of your distributions would be taxed at your top marginal rate. I don' tknow if the calculator you're using is including SS payouts.
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Jun 8, 2020 02:28
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I mean, theoretically in certain situations it would be a factor in determining the risk/return of taking undeclared cash under the table (or even whether it is profitable to take a discount in exchange for said cash). Also, of course, whether it is worth working additional marginal hours for the additional marginal money.
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Jun 8, 2020 03:08
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SlyFrog posted:I mean, theoretically in certain situations it would be a factor in determining the risk/return of taking undeclared cash under the table (or even whether it is profitable to take a discount in exchange for said cash). Also, of course, whether it is worth working additional marginal hours for the additional marginal money. Yes, factoring in your crimes is important.
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Jun 8, 2020 04:16
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If lying to the IRS is wrong, I don't want to be right.
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Jun 8, 2020 04:49
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Hmm I'm not sure where that all came from So with the 403(b) traditional option, you are taxed when you take the money out, and you pay tax on everything, i.e. both contributions and gains. But with the Roth, you pay taxes upfront but only on the contributions. It seems like the difference between the two should be much higher, even taking into account investing the extra amount you would have paid in tax with the traditional option.
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Jun 8, 2020 17:51
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