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The Aardvark
Aug 19, 2013


https://twitter.com/laura_waxee/status/1270495101614264320

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Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


also a 10-1 rejection of Nancy "the murderers of Mario Woods did nothing wrong" Tung for the Police Commission

a good session.

redreader
Nov 2, 2009

I am the coolest person ever with my pirate chalice. Seriously.

Dinosaur Gum
I picked up a few pizza slices in downtown San Jose on Friday and people were standing on the street outside at little tables, like 4 or 5 people around a table drinking beer with no masks on. The San Jose subreddit has a picture of people all drinking with no masks on at San Pedro Square from this weekend. I saw some thing saying gyms could reopen on Friday, but IDK if it was Santa Clara county or California.

My friend works full time for Santa Clara county and has been moved to become a full time contact tracer for 'at least 6-8 months', she said they aim to have 1000 of them. So, good news and terrible news. Why is San Jose open ? I didn't see anything saying it was legal! WTF?

Megaman's Jockstrap
Jul 16, 2000

What a horrible thread to have a post.
The streets are now full of people not wearing masks. One guy I play games with bragged about going to the beach and the good crowds that were there. A good chunk of people of this country have been propagandized into being selfish and worthless assholes. If you can't even wear a cloth mask to protect the weak and the sick and can't summon up enough willpower to not voluntarily hang around crowds for a year you're a bad person.

droll
Jan 9, 2020

by Azathoth
Sure, but I yell and bang pots at 8pm every night for our healthcare workers.

withak
Jan 15, 2003


Fun Shoe
Doesn't that and the howling scare away the virus? Or am I misunderstanding?

BeAuMaN
Feb 18, 2014

I'M A LEAD FARMER, MOTHERFUCKER!

withak posted:

Doesn't that and the howling scare away the virus? Or am I misunderstanding?

No, it helps wake up the sun sooner so that it can kill the virus. Roosters were always our best medicine.

FilthyImp
Sep 30, 2002

Anime Deviant
US just hit 2 million cases? What.

Looks like we peaked for new cases in April but we're hitting a plateau instead of tapering? Jesus

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

FilthyImp posted:

US just hit 2 million cases? What.

Looks like we peaked for new cases in April but we're hitting a plateau instead of tapering? Jesus

Its actually going back up, and a lot of states with large elderly populations (Florida, Arizona) are in real bad shape

We're idiots

FCKGW
May 21, 2006

California too. We just had our highest daily number of cases like last week.

Proust Malone
Apr 4, 2008



Why does the graph look like a sawtooth? Some fluke of reporting?

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Ron Jeremy posted:



Why does the graph look like a sawtooth? Some fluke of reporting?

Poor reporting on the weekends. Sunday is almost always the lowest day of the week.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

Ron Jeremy posted:

Why does the graph look like a sawtooth? Some fluke of reporting?
At a guess, it's some organizations not reporting numbers during weekends.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

FCKGW posted:

California too. We just had our highest daily number of cases like last week.

Basically we got to a plateau and called it "first peak" and pretended like we got Beat Covid.

It's unbelievably depressing and stupid.

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

FMguru posted:

At a guess, it's some organizations not reporting numbers during weekends.

a ton of places don't do testing on the weekends or won't even accept delivery of samples, so hospitals won't/can't swab between like 3pm friday till early monday morning

it's of course a huge complication for capacity because you've got patients stuck taking up space where they might not need to be if testing didn't have such a large weekend-shaped speedbump


incidentally my wife has yet to see a patient over age 70 survive this, please y'all take it seriously

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I guess I'll just keep repeating this.

"Cases" is a metric that tracks both the spread of coronavirus, and the increased rates of testing, both in California and nationwide. As such, it can't be used on its own to show that Coronavirus is spreading more or less. The changing pace of testing obscures the underlying factor of the disease spread.

Look at hospitalizations and deaths. It's likely that the percentage of coronavirus cases that become serious enough to warrant hospitalization and then that patient actually gets hospitalized is relatively consistent over time, and, it's more likely that the rate at which actual deaths from coronavirus are officially attributed to coronavirus are consistent over time. Neither are totally consistent, but they're more consistent than the official case count metrics.

https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

Scroll down to the "New reported cases and deaths in California, by day" section and you can see this in action. The "cases" metric on the left keeps climbing throughout april and may. And that's not cumulative, it's the new cases per day metric. But on the right you see deaths, and the moving average of those are declining softly throughout april and may. It's spiky due to the aforementioned reporting cadence across weekends, but the moving average line shows the trend. Gently downward.

Scroll down again to the "Confirmed ICU and non-ICU COVID-19 patients in California hospitals" and you'll see hospitalizations is very flat from april 8 through june 10, hovering right around 3000. This shows that our hospitals are not being overwhelmed, although they're also not seeing a strong downturn the way the death rate is. I would speculate that, combined with the previous slow decline in deaths, this indicates that either A) we're gradually becoming more permissive in which cases are worthy of hospitalization, or B) we're gradually improving the rate of survival of hospitalized patients. Or maybe a combination of the two, or maybe additional factors are at play.

Overall, though, the sentiment that it's bizarre that we're reopening the state is correct: there's no strong indicator of improvement or recovery, we're just treading water as a state, and it's reasonable to assume that reopening will increase cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, above the current flat to maybe gently downward trend.

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

Leperflesh posted:

I guess I'll just keep repeating this.

"Cases" is a metric that tracks both the spread of coronavirus, and the increased rates of testing, both in California and nationwide. As such, it can't be used on its own to show that Coronavirus is spreading more or less. The changing pace of testing obscures the underlying factor of the disease spread.

Look at hospitalizations and deaths. It's likely that the percentage of coronavirus cases that become serious enough to warrant hospitalization and then that patient actually gets hospitalized is relatively consistent over time, and, it's more likely that the rate at which actual deaths from coronavirus are officially attributed to coronavirus are consistent over time. Neither are totally consistent, but they're more consistent than the official case count metrics.

https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

Scroll down to the "New reported cases and deaths in California, by day" section and you can see this in action. The "cases" metric on the left keeps climbing throughout april and may. And that's not cumulative, it's the new cases per day metric. But on the right you see deaths, and the moving average of those are declining softly throughout april and may. It's spiky due to the aforementioned reporting cadence across weekends, but the moving average line shows the trend. Gently downward.

Scroll down again to the "Confirmed ICU and non-ICU COVID-19 patients in California hospitals" and you'll see hospitalizations is very flat from april 8 through june 10, hovering right around 3000. This shows that our hospitals are not being overwhelmed, although they're also not seeing a strong downturn the way the death rate is. I would speculate that, combined with the previous slow decline in deaths, this indicates that either A) we're gradually becoming more permissive in which cases are worthy of hospitalization, or B) we're gradually improving the rate of survival of hospitalized patients. Or maybe a combination of the two, or maybe additional factors are at play.

Overall, though, the sentiment that it's bizarre that we're reopening the state is correct: there's no strong indicator of improvement or recovery, we're just treading water as a state, and it's reasonable to assume that reopening will increase cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, above the current flat to maybe gently downward trend.

or in other words,

Jaxyon posted:

It's unbelievably depressing and stupid.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I find it highly believably depressing and stupid.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
Hey, so why do we still have a town in California (Fort Bragg) named after a confederate general?

Kenning
Jan 11, 2009

I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.



Oh goddamnit I didn't know Bragg was a Confederate general jfc.

droll
Jan 9, 2020

by Azathoth
Regarding virus, it's a slow bleed / stall until some point next year or 2022 when there's either a viable vaccine or it's mutated enough to be less deadly. They're going to ease restrictions to keep the economy floundering, wait until there's a big spike, put restrictions back while the hospital workers get hosed again, then ease restrictions again, rinse repeat.

slicing up eyeballs
Oct 19, 2005

I got me two olives and a couple of limes


droll posted:

2022 [...] it's mutated enough to be less deadly.

is there a paper talking about that somewhere or is that just a guess? I don't know anything about virus evolution but that's an impressively short timespan. oh or I just misread your post and 2022 is about the vaccine not the evolution part oops

DeadFatDuckFat
Oct 29, 2012

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.


The Glumslinger posted:

Hey, so why do we still have a town in California (Fort Bragg) named after a confederate general?

Wikipedia page says that there was a petition to change the name back in 2015. They should probably try again.

Dr. Fraiser Chain
May 18, 2004

Redlining my shit posting machine


I look forward to visiting Ft. BraggRuth Bader Ginsburg California soon

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Goodpancakes posted:

I look forward to visiting Ft. BraggRuth Bader Ginsburg California soon

Ft. Aaexi12 after donald makes Elon the imperial administrator of The New Californian republic

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

The Glumslinger posted:

Hey, so why do we still have a town in California (Fort Bragg) named after a confederate general?

Anywhere that's outside a major city in CA is racist as gently caress.

There's still sundown towns here.

The Wiggly Wizard
Aug 21, 2008


The Glumslinger posted:

Hey, so why do we still have a town in California (Fort Bragg) named after a confederate general?

I have bad news about every California city named after a mission, anything named Fremont, Sutter, Carson, Kern, Mendocino, uh I dunno look up your local namesakes and you'll find no end to colonial enslavement, rape, and murder.

I dunno if Junipero Serra is cancelled by we can definitely take down his ugly rear end statue on 280

e.pilot
Nov 20, 2011

sometimes maybe good
sometimes maybe shit

Jaxyon posted:

Anywhere that's outside a major city in CA is racist as gently caress.

I moved to the foothills off of I80 from Colorado in 2018 and the amount of Trump paraphernalia I see around is staggering in contrast. Then sprinkle in some State of Jefferson stuff for good measure.

California is a land of contrasts.

Proust Malone
Apr 4, 2008

I'm not exactly a Fremont *stan* or anything, but he wasnt a confederate and as a union commander, he issued an emancipation order in Missouri in 1861.

John C. Fremont posted:

All persons who shall be taken with arms in their hands within these lines shall be tried by court-martial, and, if found guilty, will be shot. The property, real and personal, of all persons in the State of Missouri who shall take up arms against the United States, and who shall be directly proven to have taken active part with their enemies in the field, is declared to be confiscated to the public use; and their slaves, if any they have, are hereby declared free.

...of course he got fired over it and it didn't really free many slaves, but he was on the right side.

The Wiggly Wizard
Aug 21, 2008


Ron Jeremy posted:

I'm not exactly a Fremont *stan* or anything, but he wasnt a confederate and as a union commander, he issued an emancipation order in Missouri in 1861.


...of course he got fired over it and it didn't really free many slaves, but he was on the right side.

Before he made that bold stance for abolition, he was busy roving the central valley and genociding native americans

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.

droll posted:

Regarding virus, it's a slow bleed / stall until some point next year or 2022 when there's either a viable vaccine or it's mutated enough to be less deadly. They're going to ease restrictions to keep the economy floundering, wait until there's a big spike, put restrictions back while the hospital workers get hosed again, then ease restrictions again, rinse repeat.

Part of the purpose for the shelter in place was to prepare hospitals so they could handle a surge, wasn't it? At least according to the state's own metrics, hospitals should now be capable of handling a surge if it happens.

Rah!
Feb 21, 2006


its almost like america is a demon cracker nation

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

slicing up eyeballs posted:

is there a paper talking about that somewhere or is that just a guess? I don't know anything about virus evolution but that's an impressively short timespan. oh or I just misread your post and 2022 is about the vaccine not the evolution part oops

It's more a theoretical thing, and yeah, viruses can mutate significantly in such a short timespan.

The idea behind it is that viruses that are super deadly with no real reservoir will die out because they just kill the host with minimal transmission and are done. In contrast, a virus that smolders along and is able to infect dozens is going to spread itself further.

droll
Jan 9, 2020

by Azathoth

slicing up eyeballs posted:

is there a paper talking about that somewhere or is that just a guess? I don't know anything about virus evolution but that's an impressively short timespan. oh or I just misread your post and 2022 is about the vaccine not the evolution part oops

It's my guess based on my understanding of a couple things. First, a virus that kills the host quickly is less likely to spread more thus ending its evolution faster. A less deadly variation can spread more. It's a numbers game. Second, if we look at the 1918 flu there were a few waves starting around mid 1918 but by the end of 1919 they had stopped. I know Influenza isn't Coronavirus but that's what we got.

droll fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Jun 12, 2020

Panfilo
Aug 27, 2011

EXISTENCE IS PAIN😬
Spikes in cases are just going to get blamed on protests. People certainly aren't social distracting in those events and it won't be hard for people to cherry pick photos of huge crowds of unmasked people.

Kenning
Jan 11, 2009

I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.



I was at one of the later Oakland protests and literally every single person in the crowd had a mask on. I don't even think I saw any masks being worn below the nose like dumb old boomer guys do. It was actually incredible.

Rah!
Feb 21, 2006


Kenning posted:

I was at one of the later Oakland protests and literally every single person in the crowd had a mask on. I don't even think I saw any masks being worn below the nose like dumb old boomer guys do. It was actually incredible.

when i was protesting in oakland i'd say probably 80-90% of people had masks. A lot of people with masks were doing the mouth-only thing though, or would take the mask off for a few minutes then put it back on again. infinitely better than all the chuds purposely not wearing them and intentionally touching each other though lol

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.
I would recommend anyone that has gone to a protest to get tested. At least in the east bay it's possible to schedule a test at a few locations regardless of whether you have symptoms, are an essential worker whatever it doesn't matter. 2-3 day turn around for results.

I got tested and it came back negative.

E: it's not the painful old tests either. You get a swab put in your nose and it feels a little weird.

America Inc. fucked around with this message at 03:25 on Jun 12, 2020

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.
Lawsuit being filed against the OPD:

"East Bay Times posted:

Social rights activists and attorneys announced a federal civil rights lawsuit Thursday, calling on the city to ban police use of tear gas, rubber bullets and flash bangs on protesters in Oakland.

The lawsuit, filed by civil rights attorneys Dan Siegal and Walter Riley as part of the National Lawyers Guild, seeks to not only ban the use of fear gas, flash-bang grenades, wooden and rubber bullets and other “non-lethal” weapons, but also calls upon the city to defund police.

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Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
federal civil rights lawsuits won't go anywhere as the civil rights dep of the department of justice has been manned for a few years now by soem lawyers out of some christian school.

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