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The only people who think Trump is capable of literally any level of strategic thinking are insane Q-Chuds, deluded accelerationists and idiot op-ed writers.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:28
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Chinese Gordon posted:The only people who think Trump is capable of literally any level of strategic thinking are insane Q-Chuds, deluded accelerationists and idiot op-ed writers. and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden
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Jul 7, 2020 17:31
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Chinese Gordon posted:The only people who think Trump is capable of literally any level of strategic thinking are insane Q-Chuds, deluded accelerationists and idiot op-ed writers. yeah pretty much. i think there are some moderates types like my folks who believe that he has to be somewhat smart because he is president but that kinda poo poo has died pretty fast.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:32
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden Those are the deluded accelerationists.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:36
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden I already mentioned those. It's entirely possible that Trump will still manage to eke out an EC win, but if he does so it will have nothing to do with any good strategic decision on his part. He is simply incapable of making them.
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Jul 7, 2020 17:40
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Maybe someone can quote one of these people claiming a “pivot” is forthcoming? I’ve certainly seen people claim that the Trump campaign’s attacks on Biden will find more purchase among the electorate when more people are paying attention to the election, which sounds reasonable to me. That’s not a pivot, that’s just the usual pattern of election years. It still won’t make much of a difference, especially if Trump stays focused on culture war issues I think the electorate as a whole finds exhausting. Biden is the warm blanket they’re asking for, an ample supply of wool for their tired eyes—and the Let Trump Be Trump strategy shows no signs of stopping. Plus, the media would need to validate those attacks, as they often did with his attacks on Hillary (or, for that matter, the Dem establishment’s attacks toward Warren and Sanders this year). They have shown exactly zero interest in doing that, so I don’t know why anyone would expect otherwise.
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Jul 7, 2020 18:01
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Trump is really trying to lose Arizona https://mobile.twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1280549130851495936
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Jul 7, 2020 18:15
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rko posted:Maybe someone can quote one of these people claiming a “pivot” is forthcoming? I’ve certainly seen people claim that the Trump campaign’s attacks on Biden will find more purchase among the electorate when more people are paying attention to the election, which sounds reasonable to me. That’s not a pivot, that’s just the usual pattern of election years. Well a pivot would be changing course and Trump backing off of one or many of his dug in positions. The easiest for him to do would be on COVID but there is absolutely no evidence he or the administration is thinking or willing to do so. Doing so would require Trump not only to admit failure and he was wrong but to have a level of compassion and humility that would likely get him votes and turn public perception around for him. What you will see is a continued mad dash down the path of pushing racism and attempting to find a new culture issue to try and get the focus off of everything burning around them. Such thinking works great in normal times but when you are dealing with a pandemic coupled with economic disaster and near riots in the streets over racism and state sanctioned brutality and oppression you it ceases to work.
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Jul 7, 2020 18:25
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Djarum posted:Well a pivot would be changing course and Trump backing off of one or many of his dug in positions. The easiest for him to do would be on COVID but there is absolutely no evidence he or the administration is thinking or willing to do so. Doing so would require Trump not only to admit failure and he was wrong but to have a level of compassion and humility that would likely get him votes and turn public perception around for him. I think the question is, "Who here, in D&D, is claiming that a significant Trump pivot is coming?" Because I haven't seen anyone make that claim either.
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Jul 7, 2020 18:29
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden and people on this forum* who keep posting about their urge to support ra*ists
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Jul 7, 2020 18:30
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I think a more interesting question is whose voters will be more willing to brave the Coronavirus in order to vote? I doubt we'll have it under control by then, but we might.
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Jul 7, 2020 18:54
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think a more interesting question is whose voters will be more willing to brave the Coronavirus in order to vote? I doubt we'll have it under control by then, but we might. i mean the dem primaries have seen record turnout despite the virus
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Jul 7, 2020 19:04
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goethe.cx posted:i mean the dem primaries have seen record turnout despite the virus Yeah but those were mostly early on in the pandemic. It's tough to predict what things will be like by November.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:09
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I hate to say this because it sounds doomsaying as all hell but Trump, and perhaps the GOP leadership too, absolutely seem like the types to let COVID run rampant in the hopes it'll keep Dems from voting.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:16
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I hate to say this because it sounds doomsaying as all hell but Trump, and perhaps the GOP leadership too, absolutely seem like the types to let COVID run rampant in the hopes it'll keep Dems from voting. they're doing something similar but a little bit different: they are trying to end voting by mail, lie about the risks to their voters, and hope that creates a turnout differential the wisconsin republicans ran that exact strategy. people were pissed, and they lost a key Wisconsin senate seat - but it might work in november to give trump an extra point or two.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:20
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Hey all. I haven't had much time to peruse SA in recent months and just found this thread, and I'm wondering: Was there talk of a VP thread? There have been fun ones in the past — 2008 comes to mind (granted, that featured two non-incumbents and Sarah Palin) — but as far as I can tell, nobody's bothered this year. And that's fine, as I assume everyone felt one was not warranted. I still like the discussion, though. Is groupthink (goonthink?) that it's still likely Harris, even though in recent days we've seen a growing case made for Tammy Duckworth? As an aside, the most recent 538 podcast centered on what Trump could theoretically do to improve his #s. Dumping Pence was the first talking point, and while I doubt that happens ...
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Jul 7, 2020 19:21
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Real Name Grover posted:Hey all. I haven't had much time to peruse SA in recent months and just found this thread, and I'm wondering: Was there talk of a VP thread? There have been fun ones in the past — 2008 comes to mind (granted, that featured two non-incumbents and Sarah Palin) — but as far as I can tell, nobody's bothered this year. I think there's just very little to discuss. Pence is the most boring man in the world, horse-loving aside, and the Biden VP search is seemingly intentionally being as boring as possible to keep the news focused on Trump.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:23
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Majorian posted:I think the question is, "Who here, in D&D, is claiming that a significant Trump pivot is coming?" Because I haven't seen anyone make that claim either. You have absolutely have made similar claims about how Biden would be crushed by Trump in a debate because Trump is good at bullying; this is a little disingenuous to focus on the pivot aspect and not the underlying concept of Trump turning things around somehow. Vincent Van Goatse posted:I hate to say this because it sounds doomsaying as all hell but Trump, and perhaps the GOP leadership too, absolutely seem like the types to let COVID run rampant in the hopes it'll keep Dems from voting. This did not work in Wisconsin. e: As EW already said. Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Jul 7, 2020 |
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Jul 7, 2020 19:23
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If Trump comes out swinging bully-wise Biden will probably call him a nutsack and I doubt it'd move the needle at all.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:25
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evilweasel posted:I think there's just very little to discuss. Pence is the most boring man in the world, horse-loving aside, and the Biden VP search is seemingly intentionally being as boring as possible to keep the news focused on Trump. All true. I'm sure it'll ramp up as we get closer to the supposed Aug. 1 target date for Biden's pick.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:25
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Raenir Salazar posted:You have absolutely have made similar claims about how Biden would be crushed by Trump in a debate because Trump is good at bullying; ...after which I said, "...but that won't matter, because debates don't matter. Biden will likely win." If you're going to accuse me of something, at least try to get it right. Pick posted:If Trump comes out swinging bully-wise Biden will probably call him a nutsack and I doubt it'd move the needle at all. Given his debate performances so far this cycle, doesn't seem terribly likely. He hasn't done a great job of retorting when someone goes on the attack against him. (see: Harris, lol)
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Jul 7, 2020 19:26
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Another great ad This one is about what asian community has had to deal with due to Trumps racist rhetoric and fearmongering https://twitter.com/ReallyAmerican1/status/1280539729952247808?s=19
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Jul 7, 2020 19:28
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about how Trump is about to pivot an crush Joe Biden Unoriginal Name posted:and people on this forum* who keep posting about their urge to support ra*ists Let's not do this. If you wanna disagree with someone on something they specifically posted, then that's one thing, but shaking your fist at "everyone who disagrees with you" about "whatever strawman you're assigning to them" gets tiresome sometimes.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:33
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e: nevermind.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:36
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Lincoln Project also has another anti-Trump ad out. https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1280457599884935168
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Jul 7, 2020 19:37
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Epicurius posted:Lincoln Project also has another anti-Trump ad out. lol this is by far the most blatantly directed at trump himself, i gotta say the idea of directly trolling the president through his tv is genius
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Jul 7, 2020 19:39
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think a more interesting question is whose voters will be more willing to brave the Coronavirus in order to vote? I doubt we'll have it under control by then, but we might. the problem is that there aren't enough republican controlled swing states where significant voter suppression will tip the race. also, its much harder to suppress vote by mail than in person voting, and trump's voting base is older and sicker than biden's, so republicans actually do want vote by mail (they just want to suppress information about availability). ironically trump whining about it because he doesn't understand what it is hurts them. there's a certain level of voter suppression baked in, and that level can increase to some extent in certain states, but coronavirus is actually more damaging to republican voting prospects than democratic.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:50
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think a more interesting question is whose voters will be more willing to brave the Coronavirus in order to vote? I doubt we'll have it under control by then, but we might. Every blue and swing state at this point has either all mail-in voting or no-questions-asked absentee balloting; we're not where we should be, but it could be way, way worse.
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Jul 7, 2020 19:54
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Seeing a whole lot of news, polls, and campaign strategy in the last page of posting about posters.
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Jul 7, 2020 20:44
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Never-Trumpers like the Lincoln Project are absolutely trying to get increased access to a future Biden Administration. We know this because Biden has already signaled that he would welcome them into his administration:quote:Biden also said he would consider Republicans for some top level positions within his administration.
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Jul 7, 2020 20:49
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Epicurius posted:Lincoln Project also has another anti-Trump ad out. loving lmao.
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Jul 7, 2020 20:54
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Another great ad It is very hard to square this with the claim that Donald Trump is the most dangerous president in history. Like, he can’t even keep an attorney general for 2 years. How can anyone possibly think of him as a threat? More importantly, who is the target audience for this ad? It feels a lot like preaching to the choir, which can be useful, certainly. “Energizing the base” is important to improve turnout.
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Jul 7, 2020 20:59
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Cpt_Obvious posted:It is very hard to square this with the claim that Donald Trump is the most dangerous president in history. Like, he can’t even keep an attorney general for 2 years. How can anyone possibly think of him as a threat? the target of this ad are asian americans and people who don't like racist rhetoric trumps inability to keep an attorney general is part of the reason he's one of the most dangerous presidents in history
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Jul 7, 2020 21:04
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Majorian posted:Never-Trumpers like the Lincoln Project are absolutely trying to get increased access to a future Biden Administration. We know this because Biden has already signaled that he would welcome them into his administration: This is roughly equivalent to "I'll consider making green beans with dinner tonight" in terms of how binding a resolution it is, but okay. It was also said back in like April, and a great deal has changed since then.
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Jul 7, 2020 21:23
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Charlz Guybon posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1280474558835892224 and still I repeat myself: give me West Virginia polls dangit
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Jul 7, 2020 21:26
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Dems and independents (people you need to win) also generally like the idea of bipartisanship, so saying it has no downsides; it isn't at all a guarantee that he will do it though, because many Republicans will likely refuse on the basis of harming their own GOP career and many other well qualified Dems he will likely pick instead who are higher priority. Not that there is anything intrinsically wrong with appointing a Republican who is well qualified and ostensibly will do what is being asked in terms of Biden's agenda, but considering Comey its probably a bad idea to trust a Republican as a Democrat and I don't think Biden will take the same risk Hillary & Obama did. Its a good thing to say to win; but probably won't be done in practice without good reason, and we shouldn't worry about it.
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Jul 7, 2020 21:31
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Youth Decay posted:and still I repeat myself: give me West Virginia polls dangit Why? Trump's gonna win there by 20+ points.
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Jul 7, 2020 21:35
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:This is roughly equivalent to "I'll consider making green beans with dinner tonight" in terms of how binding a resolution it is, but okay. As I pointed out in USPOL, his (more-progressive) ex-boss appointed two Republicans successively as SecDef. Thinking that Biden won't appoint at least some conservative Republicans to important positions strikes me as engaging in wishful thinking, given the trajectory of his career in politics. e: also, as YMB pointed out there, Obama appointed James Comey FBI Director. Besides being an important factor in why Trump is president today, Comey partially made his name in the FBI by entrapping young, mentally ill or drug-addicted men of Middle Eastern ancestry into fake terrorism plots. Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Jul 7, 2020 |
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Jul 7, 2020 21:35
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Majorian posted:As I pointed out in USPOL, his (more-progressive) ex-boss appointed two Republicans successively as SecDef. Thinking that Biden won't appoint at least some conservative Republicans to important positions strikes me as engaging in wishful thinking, given the trajectory of his career in politics. And kept Comey as DOJ, there's nothing wrong with this in principle. If there's anywhere to throw a token Republican I'd prefer SecDEF over DoS, maybe DoE is also (relatively) harmless.
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Jul 7, 2020 21:38
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Raenir Salazar posted:And kept Comey as DOJ, there's nothing wrong with this in principle. One can make the argument that there's nothing wrong with it in principle, true. I don't agree with that argument, but I'm much more interested in how it would likely play out in practice. As you yourself acknowledge, Obama kept Mueller (I assume that's who you meant?) on as FBI Director, then appointed Comey to replace him. But Comey was already notorious for championing "enhanced interrogation techniques," (ie: torture) not to mention the awful sting operations I mentioned above. If Obama made such an appointment after he was reelected in 2013, why shouldn't we believe that Biden, his more right-wing former VP won't appoint even more awful ghouls to important positions? quote:If there's anywhere to throw a token Republican I'd prefer SecDEF over DoS, maybe DoE is also (relatively) harmless. I think there are a lot of people in Libya who would dispute how harmless having war hawks in positions of foreign policy influence can be. e: transplanting from USPOL: Fritz Coldcockin posted:You kinda made them both out to be Curtis LeMay reincarnated. I did no such thing. I did, however, suggest that they were hawks who pushed hawkish policies in the administration. Gates, for example, loudly beat the drums for war in Libya. Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Jul 7, 2020 |
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Jul 7, 2020 21:45
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