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Welcome to the The State of the Race: News, Polls and Campaign Strategy Thread. Yes, this is our second thread about the General Election, but this thread has a distinctly different and more narrow focus: a place to debate and discuss what's happening in the 2020 race for the White House specifically, not personal voting decision or viewpoints on the candidates. The hope is this help clear up some of the acrimony in the other General Election thread. What does that mean? What you should post about : * News about the race * Polls and election forecasting models * Campaign strategy and direction What you shouldn't post about : * Your personal voting choice or how you think others should vote * The value and ethics of voting for a particular candidate, not voting, or voting third party * Relitigating the 2020 primary or the 2016 election * Ideological differences between wings of the Democratic party or political theory in general * Your opinion of the candidates independent of their 2020 race - this is not a referendum on them as individuals If you would like to discuss these topics we have many other places to do so. Updated rules: quote:Also, unrelated to us over analyzing a specific poll: Helpful FAQ: Will the Supreme Court steal the election? quote:No, it can't. And this irresponsible poo poo needs to stop. Its baseless fearmongering and will have actual negative physical/psychological consequences for those doomscrolling this thread. Can a legislature throw out votes? axeil posted:*sigh* Okay let me debunk this once again. See my post about this in US-Pol from back in the summer. I didn't originally write this but the author thoroughly debunks this idea by showing how many unlikely things would have to come together for it to happen. Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Oct 28, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:30 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 12:45 |
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I love this thread idea. Thanks for making it. I had this open in the other tab so might as well share it since it's relevant: https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1271519427339726851 The way the Lincoln Project has been getting under Trump's skin has been remarkable, and it has gotten to a point where they have forced him to make strategic errors, such as spending $1 million on counter-ads... to run in the D.C. area. Rumor is that one of their ads might also have caused Trump and his team to sour on Parscale. I watch all their ads and each one has been a slam dunk. Very high quality with great messaging, targeting all the areas where Trump is insecure. Has anything like this been done in past elections, where the incumbent's own party had well-funded groups running ads attacking the incumbent?
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:35 |
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To get us started, with around 150 days until election day, the Trump campaign strategy so far has been... puzzling. So for it seems their focus has been: * Running ads specifically targeted at Trump (in the DC market, specifically on the shows he watches) to make him feel like his campaign is doing something * Running ads on Fox News for their base * Threatening CNN with a lawsuit for publishing a poll that showed Biden up 14 points, thereby shining a bigger light on his campaign * Holding rallies in ... red states Is Brad Parscale even competent to run a campaign? Was Trump's success in 2016 not because of himself, but because of the people around him, who have all been run out on a rail?
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:38 |
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I don't think something like that has ever occurred. And I don't think any campaign before has wasted money in a market so that their canidate feels that they are winning. The fact that trump basically screamed until they decided to run ads to counter Lincoln project is unprecedented in modern campaigns. It's the same thing as trumps lawyers as actually sending a cease and desist to cnn for airing a spot about bad polling numbers showing how bad trump is doing in so many states. It's something you'd never would think would happen.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:40 |
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enraged_camel posted:I love this thread idea. Thanks for making it. I don't think any group has done anything like the Lincoln Project is doing: creating ads specifically targeted at the candidate (and specifically to piss him off) instead of voters. Considering how thin skinned and sensitive Trump is, it seems very smart.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:40 |
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In other news, OAN, Trump's new favorite news channel (and Kremlin mouthpiece) hyped up a poll favorable Trump ... which showed him in a 50-50 tie with Biden in Florida (when Biden and Trump were presented as binary choices). They ended up pulling the poll because it was so embarrassing. quote:Herring had on Wednesday pledged an upcoming poll, as the Trump campaign’s feud with CNN over its national poll was heating up. He promised that OAN would be “releasing a poll concerning the 2020 presidential race” that “looks as though it will be in favor of” the president. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...lled-its-story/ Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Jun 13, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:42 |
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Some recent polls: https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1271482303232032768 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1271206443711172608
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 02:51 |
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Ooo this is a good idea. Going to cross-post my VP analysis. axeil posted:I think the big question then is: if not Harris then who? There aren't a lot of black female politicians he can pick from. Most have the "Sarah Palin Problem" of being mostly unknown and that can blow up in your face in a big way. AP also had an article today saying Biden is down to 6 and specifically named Harris, Warren and...Susan Rice?? https://apnews.com/cfb9f51767aeee83f1f426fb42070a9e quote:Biden’s VP list narrows: Warren, Harris, Susan Rice, others I really can't see the rationale for Rice given she's never held elected office. Even GHWB was a Representative for a bit before he was CIA Director.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:02 |
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The Economist has posted up the first General Election Forecast: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president As of today they have Biden with an 85% chance of winning. Here's their explanation on how their model works: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/how-this-works and they are also publishing their source code and data inputs (See thread) https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1271028181324238850 And, I have to agree with this sentiment https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1271602084111097857
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:04 |
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axeil posted:Ooo this is a good idea. I also don't get Rice either - she has zero national presence today and also lets Republicans harp on how she's part of the Clinton emails/Benghazi coverup/Obama conspiracy (not like they need any excuse, but, still, don't make it too easy). I think Duckworth would offer a lot to the ticket: younger, slightly liberal female POC Senator with a clean record, veteran, good public speaker. Another, unrelated topic I've been thinking about a lot lately (and in line with the Economist tweet I've posted above): it seems like Trump is making the exact wrong choice at every turn. I don't know if its because by now there are no adults left in the room (and his current staff is basically the end result of survival of the dumbest and most slavishly complimentary) and there's nobody to check his worst impulses, or its because he's aware that if he tacks away from the ultra-right wing, race baiting, xenophobia to try to appeal to the suburbs that he lost in 2018, he'd lose his base or depresses turnout. Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Jun 13, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:06 |
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Additionally, G. Elliot Morris published The Economist's election model yesterday. It has Biden at ~85% to win. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president The EC/Popular Vote split is continued to be extremely egregious. They only give Trump a 6% chance of winning the popular vote but he's still at 15% to win. It's also open source so if you don't like it you can play with the assumptions/regressions. https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:07 |
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Do any of these models "price in" a much more horrible second pandemic wave, and turnout that might be greatly depressed as a result (and the possible/probable lack of mail-in-voting in many states)?
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:07 |
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enraged_camel posted:Do any of these models "price in" a much more horrible second pandemic wave, and turnout that might be greatly depressed as a result (and the possible/probable lack of mail-in-voting in many states)? I suspect not, that is the sort of black swan type thing you can't specifically account for other than through uncertainty and not using a specific point projection (i.e. Biden is X% to win, not Biden will win X Electoral Votes) One thing that's interesting: when the model started making projections back in March in the pre-COVID times it actually had Trump and Biden in a dead heat. Not sure if Trump's collapse is due to COVID, Biden clinching the nomination, the BLM protests or "all of the above". Additionally, looking at the confidence interval, you can still have an outcome that gets Trump ~49% of the popular vote which is enough to win due to the inherent gerrymandering of the map. Biden at 85% by no means makes him a lock to win, but if the polling is still at Biden+8 or 9 down the stretch I struggle to see how he wouldn't win. That's enough of a national vote lead to erase the gerrymandering of the electoral college. axeil fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Jun 13, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:08 |
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Duckworth is the dark horse canidate for vp that would be an excellent choice for Biden. Minority, fairly liberal, mother, wheelchair bound veteran who earned her purple heart being shot down in Iraq. She honestly will make a strong candidate for the presidency in the future, she also doesn't take any poo poo. Harris is a bad pick and could easily be counted as the next generation of Hillary. She has a pretty lovely record in California and morphs her policy based on what she thinks will get her the best coverage regardless of the actual effectiveness. Her campaign was legit the worst of the primaries and she did gaffe after gaffe. Remember her student loan forgiveness plan was so badly mocked there were tools made to riff on it. She was a weak canidate for the primary and honestly doesn't add anything for the VP slot. Much more so when you consider that her track record as a prosecutor is a drag in the current climate. Klob is doa and anyone suggesting it is more brain worms then trump at this point. By god it would be the legit worst idea after Palin to choose klob as his VP
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:17 |
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Duckworth is the dark horse canidate for vp that would be an excellent choice for Biden. Minority, fairly liberal, mother, wheelchair bound veteran who earned her purple heart being shot down in Iraq. She honestly will make a strong candidate for the presidency in the future, she also doesn't take any poo poo. I have to think that Harris is out of contention at this point, even if they're floating her name as part of the "final 6" (which could be anything but final, lets be real). She has huge liabilities - Biden is strong with African American voters, Harris doesn't help attract younger voters, she's from California which is a safe state, and she's already been hammered for being a cop even before the protests.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 03:55 |
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She was hammered for being a cop that charged kids with truancy and prosecuted for it of all things. That's a great image right there for minority outreach
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 04:01 |
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I have to think that Harris is out of contention at this point, even if they're floating her name as part of the "final 6" (which could be anything but final, lets be real). She has huge liabilities - Biden is strong with African American voters, Harris doesn't help attract younger voters, she's from California which is a safe state, and she's already been hammered for being a cop even before the protests. She also threw Biden under the bus during one of the debates!
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 04:11 |
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https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1271504127735062534 the trolling continues https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/1271632274338000896 and yea, no way this ends well - both actively killing his supporters and wasting resources in a non-battleground state, and his speech is going to create so many soundbites for attack ads. Clearly someone gave into what were likely his constant demand for restarting his rallies, but why Tulsa?!
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 04:25 |
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1271504127735062534 Likely it was one of the few places that would allow him to hold a rally without restrictions or masks and full seating. And where he can feel certain that it will be "sold out". Theres probably only 2 other states as blood red as ok, and it's where they feel safe that it will sell out and not have protesters outside disrupting his rally. Imagine if it had been in Minnie, or Philly as an example.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 04:33 |
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Duckworth is the dark horse canidate for vp that would be an excellent choice for Biden. Minority, fairly liberal, mother, wheelchair bound veteran who earned her purple heart being shot down in Iraq. She honestly will make a strong candidate for the presidency in the future, she also doesn't take any poo poo. Tammy Duckworth was born in Thailand, so she legally can't be President. Also, thank you for this thread Seven Hundred Bee!
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 05:18 |
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Edward Mass posted:Tammy Duckworth was born in Thailand, so she legally can't be President. Her parents were American citizens, even though she was born abroad. Same qualification that McCain had.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 05:25 |
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Her parents were American citizens, even though she was born abroad. Same qualification that McCain had. Really? Huh. I forgot about McCain being born in the Panama Canal Zone.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 05:29 |
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I would recommend taking the AP piece with quite a bit of salt. The three main takeaways are that Rice is being considered, the field may have narrowed to "as few as" 6, and that Klob, Warren, and especially Harris are all bad picks. I wonder what camp "Democrats familiar with the process" are in. My favorite is:f'real though posted:Additional candidates may still be asked to submit to the extensive document review process now underway for some top contenders. We saw a similar game with Klobuchar before Floyd's murder. Klobuchar (was always bad), Harris (cop), Warren (Baker) would all be awful choices for their own reasons outside of policy/ideology. My personal hell timeline includes a pair of former senators I haven't seen mentioned yet: McCaskill and Landrieu, neither of whom I like but both also have stronger resumes than some of the currently floated names. When we get to an actual shortlist of 6 I think it's Abrams (who'll end up with a cabinet or DNC spot, but you absolutely put the 46yo on the list even if you don't intend to choose her), Tammy, Tammy, Harris (probably AG if she wants it, and I think she will), Rice, and a name that we haven't heard yet. I could see Demings on the list as well. UCS Hellmaker posted:Klob is doa and anyone suggesting it is more brain worms then trump at this point. By god it would be the legit worst idea after Palin to choose klob as his VP It's been rumored and floated in opeds for a few months, but I do expect we'll see a proposed Biden cabinet before the election. The contrast with the Trump admin and the opportunity to make a few bipartisan commitments will prove too enticing for Biden, I think.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 05:39 |
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1271651522603110401 So parscale is insane and it also fits with the narrative that they oversell rally tickets to always make the stadiums full. But the numbers he has been posting are literally bigger then the county and definitely larger then the arena by an order of magnitude. All of this fits with the his campaign strategy, using numbers and tactics to make you feel like you are missing out by not donating /buying in. It's the same tactics Trump uses to sell his snakeoil and it has been surprisingly good at fleecing his base for money. I hope someone has some of the emails from his donation drives where they push that you yes YOU have been selected by trump to help lead his campaign but you have to donate to save your spot. Your one of only a handful selected and you need to buy in now. When this is all done it will interesting to have a disection of the tactics used to drive donations and attendance numbers at rallies because it is fairly similar to mlm conferences and tactics. UCS Hellmaker fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Jun 13, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 06:46 |
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The Times on the VP situation:quote:The search committee has been in touch with roughly a dozen women, and some eight or nine are already being vetted more intensively. Condensed the article to just the names. The jist of the rest of it is that they started reaching out shortly after it became clear Biden was the nominee and are now advancing further into vetting candidates. Also that campaign staff is starting to get intentional about public interactions to tamp down the rumor mill. Crist is hyping up Demings, while Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin (the most notable Bloomberg backer of 2020) is praising Bottoms. I still believe the Times list is not exhaustive (believe most of the sources are tied to the interviewees and not the campaign), but does give us a better picture of who has been contacted. Abrams is still apparently in the hunt as well. Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Jun 13, 2020 |
# ? Jun 13, 2020 15:34 |
Paracaidas posted:I still believe the Times list is not exhaustive (believe most of the sources are tied to the interviewees and not the campaign), but does give us a better picture of who has been contacted. Yeah, I feel like currently the only way to read these articles about the veepstakes is that it's a bunch of competing interests all trying to swing media in favor of their preferred candidate, and therefore there's very little news value in the numerous pieces except as a loose tally of who's still in. Only recent significant developments are Abrams openly saying no one's called her, so she's out, and Klobb being effectively out.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 15:39 |
tammy baldwin could be a good pick: first openly gay senator and could help carry wisconsin. only problem i see is that wisconsin would replace her by special election, so you run the risk of losing a key senate seat
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 20:10 |
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goethe.cx posted:tammy baldwin could be a good pick: first openly gay senator and could help carry wisconsin. only problem i see is that wisconsin would replace her by special election, so you run the risk of losing a key senate seat Shes not very well known and if shes safe in WI it would be dangerous to risk the seat. Moreso because WI doesn't have a strong pool of dem candidates after 8 years of walker and the antics of the state gop. Its hard to describe how horrible the State GOP has trashed the state over the last ten years. Unless the state gerrymander is fixed its relatively hosed for the next few years. The big thing Dems can run on though is the sheer grift of the foxconn factory and how much bullshit that whole episode was.
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# ? Jun 13, 2020 20:48 |
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Biden’s gun control site is up and proving divisive along the usual lines: https://joebiden.com/gunsafety/
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# ? Jun 14, 2020 08:32 |
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new arkansas poll out!quote:Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President? https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/poll-independents-dissatisfied-with-trump-cotton-biden-competitive-in-arkansas/ um im not a fancy big city statistician, but it seems like joe biden getting to the margin of error in a state that was r+15 might not be good for the donald trump campaign Craig K fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Jun 14, 2020 |
# ? Jun 14, 2020 22:46 |
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Craig K posted:new arkansas poll out! Nah, Brad Parscale said Trump is up infinity percent so clearly this poll is just CNN FAKE NEWS!!!111 The Trump campaign is in serious trouble and I don't think there's anyone to right the ship because everyone even halfway competent has been run out. Not sure that Biden is actually within striking distance in AR but it portends absolutely dire numbers in competitive states for Trump
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# ? Jun 14, 2020 22:54 |
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yeah i assume it's just a weird as hell outlier but the fact remaining any resources at all that the trump campaign has to commit to arkansas is resources they CAN'T commit elsewhere, and having to commit resources to arkansas means that they're even more hosed in other states
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# ? Jun 14, 2020 22:58 |
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https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1272192636749742081 also, unrelated, holy poo poo the trump campaign has a lot of cash spending a million bucks on DC ads to get the candidate to shut the gently caress up doesn't seem like such a bad an investment when you have a quarter of a billion dollars on hand (or more realistically, somewhere between 100 and 255 million)
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 00:24 |
Craig K posted:yeah i assume it's just a weird as hell outlier but the fact remaining any resources at all that the trump campaign has to commit to arkansas is resources they CAN'T commit elsewhere, and having to commit resources to arkansas means that they're even more hosed in other states yeah it's interesting but reasonably likely to be total bullshit given the polling problems on the other hand, Anne Selzer is like the one person all the polling nerds go wild for and her firm just polled Iowa and found Biden up (swing from R+7 in march to D+5) and Ernst losing: quote:Statewide, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican 47% to 42% — a reversal from March, when an Iowa Poll showed 49% support for Republicans and 42% for Democrats. Nearly all respondents who made a party choice are firm with their decisions, the new poll shows. Only 2% of either side identify as only "leaning" toward one party or the other. quote:According to the poll, 46% of likely voters say they would back Greenfield if the election were held today, and 43% say they would back Ernst. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1271452250217553920 eke out fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Jun 15, 2020 |
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 00:48 |
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My money is on Warren or Baldwin. They seem the most logical choices, esp. as Warren and Biden seem to have patched up whatever feud they had years ago.
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 02:00 |
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i think its gonna be either harris, baldwin, warren or duckworth.UCS Hellmaker posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1271651522603110401 see in 2016, while his campaign stratigies were about making trump feel good, they were also spreading his various messages and base building and poo poo. now its not even that. its just about pandering to a shrunken base and himself and thats it. biden for all his issues is doing the right thing and letting trump hang himself with his words and deeds and trumps sounding more and more pathetic and desperate by the day. like he just posted this today. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1272286399752855552 he is trying to go the nixon route but he is too loving dim to understand how/why Nixon won and did so well in 1968. its fascinating.
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 04:41 |
the thing about Nixon's silent majority is that it actually was reflected in polling. most americans approved of him/vietnam despite the forceful protests. Trump seems to think he has the backing of a silent majority that is so silent it doesn't show up in any polls
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 20:04 |
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goethe.cx posted:the thing about Nixon's silent majority is that it actually was reflected in polling. most americans approved of him/vietnam despite the forceful protests. Trump seems to think he has the backing of a silent majority that is so silent it doesn't show up in any polls That's been Republican talking point number 1 since Bush W, when all signs pointed to them being the very loud 49% with slowly dwindling returns. So when Trump fans talk about a silent majority they mean there's a secret village somewhere in the midwest with 100 million voters who are just waiting for the second coming of Reagan and stay home because everyone else is a dirty traitor RINO
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 20:15 |
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enraged_camel posted:Do any of these models "price in" a much more horrible second pandemic wave, and turnout that might be greatly depressed as a result (and the possible/probable lack of mail-in-voting in many states)? if any model says it does this, you should throw it right in the trash because it's not a model, it's just the author's personal predictions laundered through a spreadsheet a black swan event like a once in a hundred year pandemic specifically recurring near the election virtually by definition cannot be foreseen by a political model
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 20:23 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 12:45 |
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evilweasel posted:if any model says it does this, you should throw it right in the trash because it's not a model, it's just the author's personal predictions laundered through a spreadsheet What if the pollster also engineered the virus, and can thus predict/tailor its scope of impact?
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# ? Jun 15, 2020 20:25 |