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GreyjoyBastard posted:There is a distinction between dicking around with people in various nominally legal ways and straight up erasing their lawfully cast votes. I mean, the one case of widespread vote-by-mail fraud is from Republicans https://www.npr.org/2019/07/30/746800630/north-carolina-gop-operative-faces-new-felony-charges-that-allege-ballot-fraud and Trump has been doing the projection thing about vote fraud lately so I assume they all know what to do
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Jul 8, 2020 05:10
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https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1280692258073952257 https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1280694929619136512
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Jul 8, 2020 09:32
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Didn't we just go over a big article and analysis where all the GOP pundits and campaign managers said this kind of thing was unlikely to unthinkable? That the party and electorate had changed too much since 1996. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1280799055220801542
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Jul 8, 2020 10:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:Didn't we just go over a big article and analysis where all the GOP pundits and campaign managers said this kind of thing was unlikely to unthinkable? That the party and electorate had changed too much since 1996. Collins is a special case since she needs to convince some Maine Democrats to split the ticket in order to win. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gardner do something similar in Colorado.
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Jul 8, 2020 10:56
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Chinese Gordon posted:Collins is a special case since she needs to convince some Maine Democrats to split the ticket in order to win. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gardner do something similar in Colorado. Trump tweet incoming.
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Jul 8, 2020 10:57
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Ague Proof posted:Trump tweet incoming. Trump making GBS threads on her will probably help her more than it hurts. I doubt he'll bother though unless she actively criticises him, which I doubt she is dumb enough to do.
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Jul 8, 2020 10:59
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Charlz Guybon posted:https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1280692258073952257 Especially dangerous rhetoric in states like Arizona and Florida where Republicans have largely embraced vote-by-mail. Total self-sabotage.
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Jul 8, 2020 11:35
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Charlz Guybon posted:Didn't we just go over a big article and analysis where all the GOP pundits and campaign managers said this kind of thing was unlikely to unthinkable? That the party and electorate had changed too much since 1996. Collins: I know Biden very well from our time in the Senate, "My inclination is just to stay out of the presidential and focus on my own race" Blank check messaging: "Trump is going to lose. Re-elect me and I'll make sure Biden can't change too much" There's still time to switch to that message, but I've not seen much polling to suggest that there's a squishy middle who is terrified of the radical progressive reform an unencumbered Biden will push through.
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Jul 8, 2020 11:57
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:The point is that saying young voters aren't going to vote Biden is patently absurd, given the data. The majority of "youth" I've spoken to aren't going to vote at all. Of the handful that will, they overwhelmingly support Biden.
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Jul 8, 2020 12:32
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https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings Cook has made a bunch of electoral rating changes in favour of the Democrats: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nebrask'a 2nd district are Lean Dem. Maine is now Likely Dem. Georgia moves to toss-up. Maine 2nd district moves to just Lean Republican.
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Jul 8, 2020 13:50
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The majority of "youth" I've spoken to aren't going to vote at all. Of the handful that will, they overwhelmingly support Biden. I wonder how they respond to polls and whether that reflects their actual voting intent
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Jul 8, 2020 14:01
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Somfin posted:I wonder how they respond to polls and whether that reflects their actual voting intent here's a poll with a ton of crosstabs: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/politics/trump-biden-poll-nyt-upshot-siena-college.html, including (as I posted above) a 34 point lead for Biden among registered voters 18 to 34
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Jul 8, 2020 14:08
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Somfin posted:I wonder how they respond to polls and whether that reflects their actual voting intent Most polls necessarily preclude non-voters, which is an excellent way to reinforce the legitimacy of the electoral system as opposed to any serious analysis as to why less than half of the eligible populace does not partake in such a supposedly integral part of our democracy. The narrative had always been that people are just too lazy, which is basically the conservatives narrative for poverty. Seven Hundred Bee posted:here's a poll with a ton of crosstabs: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/politics/trump-biden-poll-nyt-upshot-siena-college.html, including (as I posted above) a 34 point lead for Biden among registered voters 18 to 34 Link broke. Also, paywall probably.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:10
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Most polls necessarily preclude non-voters, which is an excellent way to reinforce the legitimacy of the electoral system as opposed to any serious analysis as to why less than half of the eligible populace does not partake in such a supposedly integral part of our democracy. Or they don't want to clutter up the data with extraneous information. If you're a confirmed non-voter your opinion literally doesn't matter when it comes to predicting the outcome of an election. You might as well ask a life-long vegan to rank their favorite hamburgers, or a monolingual French speaker to recite the Munda alphabet backwards. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Jul 8, 2020 |
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Jul 8, 2020 14:13
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:If you're a confirmed non-voter your opinion literally doesn't matter when it comes to predicting the outcome of an election. This line of thinking reveals two major flaws: 1. The diminishment of over half the adult population. If you wonder why conservatives call Liberals elitists, it’s stuff like this. It assumes that such voters can never be convinced to take part, and that the fault is their own. This simultaneously elevates the voting population into some sort of enlightened class of individuals. 2. It avoids the far more important question of “why do most people not vote?” This ignores the possibility that non-voters are disenfranchised either through direct institutional actions or by alienation at the hands of the political parties themselves. And, more to the point, it ignores the obvious conclusion that the two major political parties do not represent the interests of the public, both politically and statistically.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:27
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The majority of "youth" I've spoken to aren't going to vote at all. Of the handful that will, they overwhelmingly support Biden. dewey defeats truman
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Jul 8, 2020 14:40
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I wasn't going to vote but then the roni happened and i'm sure we'll make zero racial or poverty progress but at least maybe we can get people to wear god damned masks.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:46
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liberals in coffee shops are really starting to approve of donald trump!
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Jul 8, 2020 14:46
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Cpt_Obvious posted:This line of thinking reveals two major flaws: people who conduct polls want those polls to be as accurate as possible, which is why they either poll likely voters or registered voters. this has nothing to do with grassroots efforts to register and turn out new voters, which is also something that campaigns do, including both joe biden and donald trump.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:48
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1280859436794380288
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Jul 8, 2020 14:49
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https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1280851548038475776 https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1280853598629396480
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Jul 8, 2020 14:51
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:dewey defeats truman Polling in 19fucking48 was not what it is in 2020.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:52
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Cpt_Obvious posted:This line of thinking reveals two major flaws: A pollster conducting phone interviews does not give a poo poo about the answers to either of these questions. You are conflating your own grievances with Biden (and Democrats in general) with the actual science of polling. Election polls want the answer to one question: "If the election were today, who would you vote for?" If you answer "neither", you are relegated to a figure in the crosstabs. Shimrra Jamaane posted:Polling in 19fucking48 was not what it is in 2020. Polling in 1948 was nearly non-existent for the last month of that race too. Gallup and Roper were the two major organizations doing it and both had stopped polling in mid-to-late September. They forgot that much of Truman's base at the time did not have telephones, and the polls they did do did not ask the right questions.
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Jul 8, 2020 14:55
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https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1280858775306547202
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Jul 8, 2020 14:57
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Loving that New Mexico, a Safe Dem state, is being targeted by the Trump campaign for "expansion of the electoral map" 
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Jul 8, 2020 14:59
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:A pollster conducting phone interviews does not give a poo poo about the answers to either of these questions. You are conflating your own grievances with Biden (and Democrats in general) with the actual science of polling. It is interesting that in a government system ostensibly espousing the beliefs of democracy, the people tasked with it's analysis "do not give a poo poo" about over half the population. It says a lot about how we value the people who don't agree with us.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:02
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Cpt_Obvious posted:This line of thinking reveals two major flaws: Western democracies with mandatory voting - Australia being prominent, with turnout rates > 90%+ - don't have dramatically different politics from those that do The fact that Australia doesn't need massive penalties to motivate people to vote at such rates - or, conversely, that countries without mandatory voting can demotivate voting through factors as straightforward as rainfall or small increases in poll queue times - argues against the idea of large motivators or demotivators being significant factors in the decision to vote It's true that turnout variation does throw a spanner into forecasting close races, but that's only the case if the factor driving marginal voter engagement is sharply divergent by party... which could be the case, but it still places no value judgment on the bulk of non-voters. Only the marginal ones matter! ronya fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Jul 8, 2020 |
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Jul 8, 2020 15:10
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Cpt_Obvious posted:It is interesting that in a government system ostensibly espousing the beliefs of democracy, the people tasked with it's analysis "do not give a poo poo" about over half the population. It says a lot about how we value the people who don't agree with us. There are 90 kabillion other polls that ask non-voters why they aren't voting. You complaining that election pollsters are not says a lot more about you than it does about them. Again: election pollsters need their polls to be as accurate as possible. I feel like this has been explained to you multiple times and you are willfully misunderstanding it.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:11
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1280862834516275200
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Jul 8, 2020 15:15
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Cpt_Obvious posted:It is interesting that in a government system ostensibly espousing the beliefs of democracy, the people tasked with it's analysis "do not give a poo poo" about over half the population. It says a lot about how we value the people who don't agree with us. what in the world, lol. pollsters are not tasked with analysis of our democratic system, they're tasked with predicting election results, and a big part of that is selecting a sample which is reflective of the voting population. in fact, one of the reasons polls in michigan were bad in 2016 is because the samples used underweighted/overweighted certain population groups (but not nonvoters). this has nothing to do with the considerable efforts campaigns and parties devote to registering new voters and bringing voters to the poll, which, yes, I promise you is still happening.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:19
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this is a fascinating paragraph for a number of reasons quote:One reason Mr. Biden does not face the kind of rejection Mrs. Clinton saw is the changing composition of the Sanders vote. In 2016, Mr. Sanders won significant support from relatively conservative, white, rural voters. These voters were no socialists, and it’s an open question how many genuinely supported Mr. Sanders or merely voted in protest of Mrs. Clinton.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:21
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This would seem to match up both with the evidence that Trump is losing bigly, and with the experiences of posters in this thread with disaffection among younger and more left wing voters re: Biden. Either way, this should fill the Trump campaign with horror because it means he doesn't have nearly as much room to climb as Biden does by winning over wavering voters.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:31
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This must terrify the Trump campaign
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Jul 8, 2020 15:32
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Basically it seems that Trump has consolidated all of his hard and soft support already while Biden still has theoretical room to grow.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:35
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Basically it seems that Trump has consolidated all of his hard and soft support already while Biden still has theoretical room to grow. Yup, and unlike most canidates, Trump will never pivot or reach out to middle or independents.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:39
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ronya posted:Western democracies with mandatory voting - Australia being prominent, with turnout rates > 90%+ - don't have dramatically different politics from those that do These are all very fair points, however I would say that the fact that we are societally conditioned to only consider the two major parties as legitimate avenues force these political tendencies. If it became both socially acceptable and materially useful to vote for a third party, a lot more people would do it. Therefore, it is vital that the two major parties denigrate any form of political participation that does not necessitate voting for them.
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Jul 8, 2020 15:41
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https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1280876034720702464
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Jul 8, 2020 15:53
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Loving that New Mexico, a Safe Dem state, is being targeted by the Trump campaign for "expansion of the electoral map" They have no loving clue what they are doing, as usual lol This is what happens when you fire anyone remotely competent Cpt_Obvious posted:These are all very fair points, however I would say that the fact that we are societally conditioned to only consider the two major parties as legitimate avenues force these political tendencies. If it became both socially acceptable and materially useful to vote for a third party, a lot more people would do it. Therefore, it is vital that the two major parties denigrate any form of political participation that does not necessitate voting for them. You have this habit of making these kinds of arguments using terminology and words that sound like you know what you are talking about, but when people give you actual arguments you just repeat what you say in a different way over and over again Like polling really does have nothing to with turning out the vote at all. The pollsters are just looking at whose likely to fill out a ballot (that even includes third party regular voters) Your beef with the two party system is valid (and I agree the two party system limits things), but again pollsters aren't enforcing the party system, the polls have pretty much panned out besides 2016 due to scientific errors. Do you want pollsters to seriously poll every single living American of voting age to ask who they would vote for given imaginary unlimited choice? Like what do you want the analysts to actually do here dude? TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Jul 8, 2020 |
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Jul 8, 2020 15:54
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Cpt_Obvious posted:These are all very fair points, however I would say that the fact that we are societally conditioned to only consider the two major parties as legitimate avenues force these political tendencies. If it became both socially acceptable and materially useful to vote for a third party, a lot more people would do it. Therefore, it is vital that the two major parties denigrate any form of political participation that does not necessitate voting for them. You may be pleased to know that Australia practices assorted forms of ranked voting - it is perfectly acceptable to rank minor parties first at elections. Nonetheless, it doesn't yield notably more socialist outcomes or discourse. The argument that voting processes are the main driver of political culture requires greater motivation, I think.
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Jul 8, 2020 16:00
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ronya posted:You may be pleased to know that Australia practices assorted forms of ranked voting - it is perfectly acceptable to rank minor parties first at elections. This is pretty interesting. I appreciate you writing this out.
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Jul 8, 2020 16:04
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