|
https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/1282760512212803584?s=20 lol they did this for crypto and weed pump n dumps in 2018 which was almost always a top tick
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 21:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 22:52 |
|
|
oxsnard posted:that was for all retail stonks. Not sure I can tolerate this volatility, going to derisk into bitcoins
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 21:24
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/1282760512212803584?s=20 Just in case anyone was confused by the term "top tick" like me, here's a helpful article from Business Insider: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/top-tick-tips-what-to-know-and-how-to-protect-yourself-1027040852
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 21:31
|
|
|
oh yeah, speaking of top ticks. That's the stuff https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1282768586130456577?s=20
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:14
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1282763830536413188
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:17
|
|
|
Penisaurus Sex posted:We are the inverse of 1848 France: everyone sees the catastrophe coming but no one has any ability to act to stop it. I remember Wolff going on in one of the podcasts about how the solution to a given crisis in capitalism ends up setting up the nature of the next crisis which I think is what you're getting at here too. Anyone know of such analysis of past crises/solutions? This was the segment I was remembering but it isn't very deep and only discusses the most recent iteration.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:24
|
|
|
Tunafish posted:I remember Wolff going on in one of the podcasts about how the solution to a given crisis in capitalism ends up setting up the nature of the next crisis which I think is what you're getting at here too. Anyone know of such analysis of past crises/solutions? What is Good for Goldman Sachs is Good for America by Robert Brenner is the quintessential piece on this. There’s free PDFs if you Google it. The Holding Pattern by Endnotes also gets into this if you want a shorter version. Basically since the long downturn began in the 1970s and the profitability crisis began in earnest, governments have solved their economic crises, primarily through central bank intervention. Cheap credit leads to a dot com bubble that bursts, in 00/01, so the Fed has to both support consumption and give capital a lucrative vehicle, so... housing! Well, then we get 08, so the Fed does QE and sets rates to basically 0. Now, you can’t really lower rates anymore, so it’s time to expand QE to corporate debt. The important thing to note is that each of these economic recoveries is weaker than the last, and each one further constrains the options the Fed could take. You either get more inventive for less gain, or you say screw it and bring on a real sequel to the Great Depression. Could J Pow wriggle his way out of this and give the US a decade of Japanese style non-growth? It’s possible, and I’d say probably likely. But what happens to a system predicated on continuous growth, when the recession of 2032 hits after ten years of stagnation, and the Fed is out of ammo?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:51
|
|
|
Sheng-Ji Yang posted:yeah no, 30 million homeless in the span of months is absolutely revolution. i dont know if our elite is dumb enough yet to go through with it though. i think it's definitely a problem that will have ramifications in some fashion but revolution kind of denotes that there is some coherent alternative to who holds power now and I do not see the through-line between the immanent mass evictions and rich people losing control over society
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:52
|
|
|
Tunafish posted:I remember Wolff going on in one of the podcasts about how the solution to a given crisis in capitalism ends up setting up the nature of the next crisis which I think is what you're getting at here too. Anyone know of such analysis of past crises/solutions? David Harvey and Michael Kalecki talked about this. Kalecki, in particular, wrote an incredibly digestible short paper on it called "Political Aspects of Full Employment". If you have a more technical mind and/or enjoy reading dense academic papers, Hyman Minsky's actual paper on financial instability is worth reading.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 22:56
|
|
|
Egg Moron posted:i think it's definitely a problem that will have ramifications in some fashion but revolution kind of denotes that there is some coherent alternative to who holds power now and I do not see the through-line between the immanent mass evictions and rich people losing control over society Yeah what we need the most is a cohesive message and organization. Otherwise it's insensate (but rad af) violence and protesting that leads to nothing. Plus it's difficult to even know who precisely to overthrow anymore. Goldman Sachs is arguably just as much of a drag on society as the police and federal government, but how do you guillotine that? The good thing about 1789 is that well, l'etat c'est moi. You get the King and France is your oyster. Now you have federal, state, local authorities plus multinational corporations plus intelligence agencies plus foreign intelligence agencies.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:00
|
|
|
Constantly LARPing posted:Could J Pow wriggle his way out of this and give the US a decade of Japanese style non-growth? It’s possible, and I’d say probably likely. But what happens to a system predicated on continuous growth, when the recession of 2032 hits after ten years of stagnation, and the Fed is out of ammo? i don’t see how the can gets kicked though. financialization has drained the tolerances out of every public company, the social safety net was sacrificed in 2008, and we just went through a nationwide uprising against police brutality. something has to give. revolution, ubi, the nukes start flying, who knows... but I can’t see how shambling aimlessly is sustainable for the the rest of the year, much less a decade
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:00
|
|
|
you probably will have localized revolts, and they might not all look like the violent revolution people imagine, just a breakdown of institutions and people just taking direct power and administering things that need to be done to keep people alive instead while the government flails impotently or tries to use state power to re-establish control with expected results. the whole idea of this or that generation being soft is a stupid meme at this point but I do wonder if because the various economic and natural disasters that have hit various chunks of the American population over the last 40 years, from deindustrialization to hurricane katrina and maria haven't registered in the political class because they've become so insulated from the effects of those disasters that they genuinely don't understand they have to perform basic tasks of governance like keeping people fed and sheltered in order not to have the whole country fall apart. These are like the basic things any king or revolutionary council or anything in between has to do in order to have some legitimacy and most of them seem not to give a poo poo. Even in the great depression public works programs of building some poo poo in the woods was designed in part to keep the population of unemployed young people under control because they knew a lot of them having nothing better to do is a Bad Idea if you want maintain the status quo.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:01
|
|
|
I think the current aristocracy learned the big lesson of the summer of revolutions too well: "You can gauge the healthiness of society by the number of unemployed lawyers" If you go by that framework and disregard the lower classes, we're in okay shape. Not great, but not as bad as it's been before and it's been way worse. The big problem is that the next revolution is determined by the last and that means the next revolution will be social in focus, not political. If you view time on a very long scale and apply historical materialism to it, you come out with a clear understanding of why things happened the way they did from the English civil war on to the modern day. Every event is an attempt to reconcile the tensions and contradictions of the last reconciliation.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:04
|
|
|
Constantly LARPing posted:What is Good for Goldman Sachs is Good for America by Robert Brenner is the quintessential piece on this. There’s free PDFs if you Google it. The Holding Pattern by Endnotes also gets into this if you want a shorter version. Basically since the long downturn began in the 1970s and the profitability crisis began in earnest, governments have solved their economic crises, primarily through central bank intervention. Cheap credit leads to a dot com bubble that bursts, in 00/01, so the Fed has to both support consumption and give capital a lucrative vehicle, so... housing! Well, then we get 08, so the Fed does QE and sets rates to basically 0. Now, you can’t really lower rates anymore, so it’s time to expand QE to corporate debt. The important thing to note is that each of these economic recoveries is weaker than the last, and each one further constrains the options the Fed could take. You either get more inventive for less gain, or you say screw it and bring on a real sequel to the Great Depression. Could J Pow wriggle his way out of this and give the US a decade of Japanese style non-growth? It’s possible, and I’d say probably likely. But what happens to a system predicated on continuous growth, when the recession of 2032 hits after ten years of stagnation, and the Fed is out of ammo? The one difference between the US and Japan, is that most public debt in Japan is domestically held and therefore usually you rarely see a spike in yields (although QE has been used occasionally), but the US is not anywhere in the same situation and is much more vulnerable to a lack of foreign demand for our debt. In addition, as bad as Japan has been about running deficits, the US is honestly probably worse and that trend will continue. Our budget deficit in 2019 was already 4.6% and who the f' knows what it will be in 2020 at this point. Another issue with the US is just that the US government is not used to living within its means (except for infrastructure and social funding), and really can't raise taxes in any meaningful sense. The US is going to have to spend trillions upon trillions in the future regardless of what it does, but if austerity is pushed instead of stimulus measures focused on the population, it is going to be worse. I think a lost decade could very well be baked in especially if the US goes the traditional route. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Jul 13, 2020 |
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:06
|
|
|
Centrist Committee posted:i don’t see how the can gets kicked though. financialization has drained the tolerances out of every public company, the social safety net was sacrificed in 2008, and we just went through a nationwide uprising against police brutality. something has to give. revolution, ubi, the nukes start flying, who knows... but I can’t see how shambling aimlessly is sustainable for the the rest of the year, much less a decade I mean, yeah I certainly hope we’re reaching something like the terminal crisis for capitalism, and the contradictions, which were not nearly as high as in say, 1990, are absolutely heightened. But at what point does capital show up to McConnells office and say “spend some loving money or it’s all over” (that’s basically what happened after the first failed bailout vote in 08). Some money to kick the can just a half year further, after the election in particular, might be enough to avoid a full blown financial crisis. But you never know. Police or marshalls kill a black guy who is refusing to be evicted and it will certainly get spicy quick.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:09
|
|
|
Constantly LARPing posted:I mean, yeah I certainly hope we’re reaching something like the terminal crisis for capitalism, and the contradictions, which were not nearly as high as in say, 1990, are absolutely heightened. But at what point does capital show up to McConnells office and say “spend some loving money or it’s all over” (that’s basically what happened after the first failed bailout vote in 08). Some money to kick the can just a half year further, after the election in particular, might be enough to avoid a full blown financial crisis. But you never know. Police or marshalls kill a black guy who is refusing to be evicted and it will certainly get spicy quick. Honestly, I don't think capitalism as a concept is going away but the Washington consensus might be in danger. Also, I doubt capital will sacrifice in order to fiscally support the measures that need to happen. The US has gotten this far by more or less momentum, but the state structures don't really exist to support the type of intervention you are going to need to restore the economy as was (and even then it wasn't in great shape).
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:15
|
|
|
republican ideology isn't going to permit the economy to be saved, the looters are in charge and they are in a feeding frenzy and there is no reasoning with them
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:15
|
|
|
It's really tragic to see how rigged the system is to ensure that the wealthy continue to increase their horde at the expense of everyone else no matter what circumstances the proles happen to be muddled in this time.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:17
|
|
|
Dustcat posted:republican ideology isn't going to permit the economy to be saved, the looters are in charge and they are in a feeding frenzy and there is no reasoning with them Exactly. Neoliberalism is the rich get everything, the poor get nothing. If the poor get something, the rich must get more in order to keep the balance. The Sandwich button is forbidden. Taxing the rich according to the code now without deference to their chicanery is forbidden. I don't know how you survive going off a cliff while insisting existence of a braking system is evidence of socialism infiltrating the bus, but stupider things have happened and America is the Forrest Gump of the world. The fact that Trump still has a chance according to the polls, honestly we probably deserve it. How is the election even in doubt at this point, I don't know. People get fired for being 10 minutes late a couple times but the President can just do nothing during a pandemic and unrest and it's cool.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:24
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Honestly, I don't think capitalism as a concept is going away but the Washington consensus might be in danger. Yeah to the extent that this is “The One” it’s got more to do with the state structures in the US being absolute garbage. It’s not like the EU is in a better state in terms of avoiding crisis, but they can muddle along a lot better. I guess I like to temper my expectations, Marxists have been getting excited about financial downturns since 1848, being like “this is it guys... ah gently caress”.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:25
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1282795165715963909?s=19 Oh an musk owns the lithium mines in bolivia now or something lol
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:25
|
|
|
am I hallucinating or did Elon once add a fart app to Tesla cars to great fanfare years ago?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:27
|
|
|
Constantly LARPing posted:Yeah to the extent that this is “The One” it’s got more to do with the state structures in the US being absolute garbage. It’s not like the EU is in a better state in terms of avoiding crisis, but they can muddle along a lot better. Everything is a process, but this crisis may be an inflection point for the West and it is hard not to see the radical left growing in the states, although I don't think the US government is literally going to collapse. It still has plenty of resources at its disposal. If anything a weakened and cornered US government is probably even more dangerous.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:39
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Honestly, I don't think capitalism as a concept is going away but the Washington consensus might be in danger. Yeah the mistake is thinking that the economic system of capitalism requires the US or something. It's far more resilient a system than even most of its supporters envision, which is an ongoing problem.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:41
|
|
|
skooma512 posted:. In the 1988 referendum to keep Pinochet in Chile, 44% of voters voted for Pinochet... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Chilean_national_plebiscite
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:44
|
|
|
skooma512 posted:Exactly. Neoliberalism is the rich get everything, the poor get nothing. If the poor get something, the rich must get more in order to keep the balance. The majority of our country (and the overwhelming majority of the electorate) doesn't really make any choices to vote. They chose decades ago.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2020 23:47
|
|
|
It's not even about the end of capitalism. It's about ending the current political and social stagnation that has been ongoing in America. To move past this "End of History" nonsense. Ending USA's belligerence against anything that might resemble socialism is only the first step to starting to address real world problems. The crisis of the pandemic only highlights that the current system will simply refuse to deal with the consequences of global climate change. Maybe you can do a revolution and fix everything all at once, or maybe you can't, but the end of the current political order is the first step to fixing anything.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:18
|
|
|
one possibility that no one has discussed since it was unimaginable in Marx's era is that mmt proves to have no long term negative consequences and the money printers start going into helicopter money. Elected officials find out that it's wildly easy to get reelected by handing out cash and we backdoor our way into socialism but with a veneer of capitalism. I'm sure this is wildly optimistic but they're all but certain to open pandora's box (helicopter money) at some point and how well they're able to contain it is a total mystery
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:26
|
|
|
So uh... the market kinda went from like 600+ to +10? did I miss something?
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:27
|
|
|
Nice and hot piss posted:So uh... the market kinda went from like 600+ to +10? did I miss something? don't pay attention to the dow, the nasdaq 100 is where all the pumpage has been and it was hilarious today +2.5% and then closed -2%
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:28
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:don't pay attention to the dow, the nasdaq 100 is where all the pumpage has been and it was hilarious today +2.5% and then closed -2% I saw that and lolled
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:36
|
|
|
Nice and hot piss posted:I saw that and lolled Tesla's trading range today was 2x the entire market cap for Ford, who sells 12x as many cars and does so profitably (in the pre plague days)
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 00:58
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:one possibility that no one has discussed since it was unimaginable in Marx's era is that mmt proves to have no long term negative consequences and the money printers start going into helicopter money. Elected officials find out that it's wildly easy to get reelected by handing out cash and we backdoor our way into socialism but with a veneer of capitalism. There are parts of MMT that work (stock and flow), but I don't think the "infinite money printer" concept works in reality. If anything the US dollar has been showing some surprising weakness recently. It is why I am perhaps more pessimistic than most because for socialism to occur in the US, either there has to be cuts to corporate welfare, higher taxes, and/or devaluation. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Jul 14, 2020 |
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:02
|
|
|
they aren’t going to print their way to socialism, they’ll print their way to feudalism
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:03
|
|
|
number go down. very sad.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:04
|
|
|
Torpor posted:they aren’t going to print their way to socialism, they’ll print their way to feudalism If anything it would make sense if American oligarchs just continue to loot what they can from the US, and dump their dollars into whatever is trending at the moment in an overseas account. I think one of our light carriers is still on fire.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:08
|
|
|
oxsnard posted:one possibility that no one has discussed since it was unimaginable in Marx's era is that mmt proves to have no long term negative consequences and the money printers start going into helicopter money. Elected officials find out that it's wildly easy to get reelected by handing out cash and we backdoor our way into socialism but with a veneer of capitalism. but these days elected officials get plenty of money from megadonors and corps such that they don't need to bribe their constituents with jobs/projects/money to get re-elected. they can use gerrymandering, voter "fraud" laws, banning mail-in ballots for anyone <65 years old (this is a thing lol), removing polling places in urban areas (milwaukee and atlanta famously have had 3+ hr wait times to vote for the last 10+ years and have pavlovian-ishly trained people not to vote because remember the last time you tried to vote in 2012 and waited 4 hrs in the rain?? gently caress that!!) to pick up the slack to remain in power. that setup has been working, but it may not work much longer. and yeah money printer goes brrr seems to work when it's making rich bazillions of dollars making their bank account number go up, but even that is getting iffy. i don't have much faith in 'money printer goes brrr' under class-based capitalistic society but it would certainly be a massive improvement of hundred of millions of peoples lives in the short-term. i think you really need to have the makings of a command-economy without privatized profits to make it work long-term
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:11
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:I think one of our light carriers is still on fire. Looks like it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:13
|
|
|
that’s fishing
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 22:52 |
|
|
so Wall Street is now 100% detached right
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2020 01:16
|
|