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Count Roland posted:Casus belli being lined up for Egypt to send forces into Libya. i saw this too and while it is meaningful, ultimately it won't be Tobruk that gets to make the call if Egypt intervenes. Based on statements leaked to the press, Egypt is unlikely to make a movie unless its Gulf sponsors promise to foot the bill. And I imagine now is a bad time for the Gulf to be taking on any massive new expenses. this Casus belli isn't even very good, since the UN and West don't acknowledge that the Tobruk government has any valid legal authority. Unrelated but the other day I saw an estimate that Russia has pumped $2 billion in "counterfeit" Libyan currency into the country. I'm not sure if it's actually meant to be indistinguishable from Tripoli's money or if it's actually a distinct issue ordered by Tobruk as part of its efforts to claim that it is the true national government. Libyans seem relatively good at distinguishing them at a glance so if they are copies they aren't very convincing. Squalid fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Jul 16, 2020 |
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Jul 16, 2020 18:31
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Niche book request for you all. Any one have any good books that they have read that deal with the governance of Iraq post-2003 invasion? I am interested to learn more about the structure of the provisional governments, their policy making goals/process, their results, etc.
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Jul 16, 2020 18:45
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Lote posted:Edit: I don’t know enough about the foreign politics in the Middle East right now to form an opinion about how dumb the Trump plan for the Middle East is. I assume this is bad. On a scale of smoldering proxy war to all out Middle East war with Israel running around with a hand grenade ala Anchorman, how bad is it? Seeing as Israel is the middle easts sole verified nuke carrier it's doubtful that Israel doesn't come out on top of any conventional conflict. Unless Hamas rises up and successfully vollies tel aviv. Squalid posted:
Deligitimizing the currency means a new one must be created. Funny enough this in itself is a hyper aggressive move that the Nazis wanted to utilize in the 40s. Currency manipulation breaks down the government's power to tax Libya is being courted/manipulated on multiple fronts , Weakness in US policy is starting to really effect the world. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Jul 16, 2020 |
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Jul 16, 2020 18:51
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Buckhead posted:Niche book request for you all. Any one have any good books that they have read that deal with the governance of Iraq post-2003 invasion? I am interested to learn more about the structure of the provisional governments, their policy making goals/process, their results, etc. you'll probably want to pair it with a critical outside source, but one place that's easy to start is the US military's own self-assessment of the war is a good place to start. It's all published online so you can just pull it out to read one section that's particularly interesting or use it as a reference to check other work. This is also how i've used it, rather than actually sitting down and reading it through. Here's the first edition out of 2, you can find the second also on the army war college website: https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/3667.pdf This was completed in 2016 but only released to the public last year so it's pretty fresh. Squalid fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Jul 16, 2020 |
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Jul 16, 2020 19:18
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Count Roland posted:Casus belli being lined up for Egypt to send forces into Libya. Egypt is on opposite sides of Turkey's water territorial gas claim nonsense, that are also tangentially related to Libya in that Erdogan is having his clients there support his claims.
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Jul 16, 2020 19:25
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Buckhead posted:Niche book request for you all. Any one have any good books that they have read that deal with the governance of Iraq post-2003 invasion? I am interested to learn more about the structure of the provisional governments, their policy making goals/process, their results, etc. "Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone is a 2006 book by Rajiv Chandrasekaran that takes a critical look at the civilian leadership of the American reconstruction project in Iraq" It's ok. It's from 2006 so it certainly isn't a detailed study. It's more a collection of anecdotes and research that highlight how poorly thought out the whole affair was. Maybe a good place to start before getting into meatier works.
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Jul 16, 2020 19:52
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Buckhead posted:Niche book request for you all. Any one have any good books that they have read that deal with the governance of Iraq post-2003 invasion? I am interested to learn more about the structure of the provisional governments, their policy making goals/process, their results, etc. You should try to track down the original plans that were drawn up, they're pretty actively being memoryholed because they are unbelievably damningly stupid in retrospect so they're kinda hard to find, but they're 100% worth a read.
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Jul 16, 2020 20:04
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Zedhe Khoja posted:it's also a massive exaggeration to say it was a credible accusation to begin with given its source I don't know for sure if it happened or not, but I know at least some of the intelligence community both here and in the UK did and the president dismissed it without seeming to care one way or the other. That seems bad to me.
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Jul 16, 2020 21:13
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Squalid posted:you'll probably want to pair it with a critical outside source, but one place that's easy to start is the US military's own self-assessment of the war is a good place to start. It's all published online so you can just pull it out to read one section that's particularly interesting or use it as a reference to check other work. This is also how i've used it, rather than actually sitting down and reading it through. Thanks! Will check this out. Based on the table of contents, seems like a good fit. Count Roland posted:"Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone is a 2006 book by Rajiv Chandrasekaran that takes a critical look at the civilian leadership of the American reconstruction project in Iraq" Appreciate the suggestion. Probably a bit too contemporary for what I am looking for, but I will take a look at it. Herstory Begins Now posted:You should try to track down the original plans that were drawn up, they're pretty actively being memoryholed because they are unbelievably damningly stupid in retrospect so they're kinda hard to find, but they're 100% worth a read. This is what actually started me down this rabbit hole. I came across this web page that has the original orders of the CPA, starting with the infamous Order 1 (De-Baathification of Iraqi Society): https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/cpa-iraq/regulations/ edit: I think I found one concise answer to my question here: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG847.html Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority. It is by the RAND Corporation, which I just know as McNamara's lackeys, so taking it with a grain of salt but seems like a decent starting point. Buckhead fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Jul 17, 2020 |
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Jul 16, 2020 22:26
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New post because it is so interesting. Lol at the amount of planning that went into launching the occupation of Iraq:quote:"Garner and ORHA faced several obstacles. First, the insufficient breadth and depth of prewar planning for the postcombat Phase IV made it extremely difficult to begin restoring vital public services. Virtually no analysis had been done on Iraq’s government sectors, from transportation to education. The relatively small number of U.S. forces on the ground and their slowness in assuming responsibility for public security opened a power vacuum when the old regime collapsed and rresulted in widespread and largely unchecked looting. The consequent physical destruction of key Iraqi public buildings made it difficult for ORHA to identify ministry personnel, since they had nowhere left to work. American advisors to Iraqi ministries were forced to rely on word-of-mouth to locate ministry staff.14 ORHA had far too few people to carry out its many responsibilities. It numbered only 151 staff in Kuwait by March 16. This number grew to nearly 300 over the next few weeks, most of whom were active-duty or retired military personnel.15 “ORHA’s senior ranks lacked significant depth in diplomatic experience and had limited understanding of the Middle East,” one U.S. Army study subsequently concluded.16 This was not by intent. Garner’s preference was for a largely civilian staff, but the reluctance of other agencies to provide personnel in a timely fashion, in State’s case perhaps exacerbated by Rumsfeld’s rejection of many State Department candidates, made this impossible. " It really is an interesting read.
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Jul 17, 2020 16:44
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So I know the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict happens all the time but it seems to be escalating lately, with possible Russian and Turkish backed military forces as well as Kim Kardashian commenting on the situation. Not posting the entire articles but they are linked. https://www.newsweek.com/kim-kardashain-west-armenia-azerbaijan-nuclear-1518583 quote:Azerbaijan has threatened to target Armenia's nuclear power plant following a sharp spike in hostilities in the border region between the Caucasus countries over the last week. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerbaijan-armenia-conflict/shelling-between-azerbaijan-and-armenia-smashes-brief-ceasefire-idUSKCN24H0ZA quote:BAKU/YEREVAN (Reuters) - Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of shelling military positions and villages on Thursday, breaking a day of ceasefire in border clashes between the two former Soviet republics. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...a-idUSKCN24J0GY quote:MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is holding military exercises to test its combat readiness amid clashes between its ally Azerbaijan and Armenian forces, Russia’s defence minister told his Azeri counterpart on Saturday. https://zartonkmedia.com/2020/07/18...gainst-armenia/ quote:The Turkish occupation army in the occupied territories started to register the names of its mercenaries to send them to Azerbaijan, per Anf Arabic.
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Jul 18, 2020 22:54
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Squalid posted:i saw this too and while it is meaningful, ultimately it won't be Tobruk that gets to make the call if Egypt intervenes. Based on statements leaked to the press, Egypt is unlikely to make a movie unless its Gulf sponsors promise to foot the bill. And I imagine now is a bad time for the Gulf to be taking on any massive new expenses. Ultimately a casus belli is irrelevant, and money isn't really what's holding up an intervention. Sisi is incredibly careful and risk-averse when it comes to foreign policy, especially anything that could upset the US and the EU, and he knows he doesn't have the clout to do a full-on invasion and/or annexation as Turkey did in Northern Syria - especially with a possibly significant change coming to the White House in November. He'll wait until all the cards line up for him where he gets minimal Western blowback, or until it's his last resort. Another big factor is the western diplomatic support he needs to deal with the Ethiopian dam - losing that support and consequently having no options with Ethiopia would be a devastating issue at home, on a much bigger scale than Libya. Ham fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 00:14
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Armenia might be cursing that unlucky shell that wasted that Azeri general. They're the weaker of the two states and pretty much no one has their back because Armenia has basically no strategic value. Iran sides with them when it comes to economic and diplomatic matters but they aren't gonna go to bat for them militarily.
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Jul 20, 2020 12:10
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Russia backs them a bit, and has an airbase inside Armenia already. They were conducting military exercises the other day in the topic of Armenia v Azerbaijan. I don't know how far they'd support them but I imagine they would a bit at least.
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Jul 20, 2020 16:29
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Isn't Azerbaijan's military historically pretty terrible, in the Saudi pattern of too much money, not enough morale?
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Jul 20, 2020 17:44
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Russia backs Armenia to the extent that Turkey backs Azerbaijan because pan-Turkish-ism and the Azeris are just Turks who live in what has historically been Iran, and Russians historically just want to gently caress with the Turks any chance they get.
Throatwarbler fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 17:50
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The US has more of a relationship with Azerbaijan than with Armenia too, so Russia also backs Armenia (while also trying to remain cordial with the Azeris) to balance against that relationship turning into a problem. But yeah, Turkey and Russia being on opposite sides there, as in Syria and Libya, show why it's so difficult for Erdogan and Putin to keep the era of good feelings between them going. Both of them know they have numerous opposing interests, and geography suggests that isn't likely to change, so the only things that are sustaining the relationship are a shared hostility to American dominance and concern (probably on both sides, even if one is clearly stronger than the other) for how ugly things could get if the pretense of friendliness drops away while the areas of contention are still hotspots.
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Jul 20, 2020 22:02
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Azerbaijan is creepy as all heck. I flew through there once and their in-flight magazine was full of propaganda for their leader, and the airport in Baku seemed way overdone for a single-digit-terminal building.
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Jul 20, 2020 22:09
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Speaking of friction between Russia and Turkey, Al-Bab sure seems to be tense lately with Russian planes bombing a couple days ago and now some shelling by the SAA near the city. After the large offensive to claim much of the M4 highway in Idlib and Western Aleppo, they seem to be at least bluffing that they intend to seize it from TFSA/Turkish occupation in Northern Aleppo as well. I honestly haven't been following events in the country much lately since it's been pretty quiet and there's been a lot of poo poo going on closer to home these days, so I don't know how much linkage there may be between this and the victories Turkey's had in Libya or anything. I don't have any special insight into Putin's thinking, but if I were him, I might at least be tempted to see if I can squeeze Erdogan a bit before the US election in November, both since the US is beyond distracted right now and because Biden's likely to return American policy to a more traditional anti-Russian perspective.
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Jul 21, 2020 02:00
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Sinteres posted:The US has more of a relationship with Azerbaijan than with Armenia too, so Russia also backs Armenia (while also trying to remain cordial with the Azeris) to balance against that relationship turning into a problem. But yeah, Turkey and Russia being on opposite sides there, as in Syria and Libya, show why it's so difficult for Erdogan and Putin to keep the era of good feelings between them going. Both of them know they have numerous opposing interests, and geography suggests that isn't likely to change, so the only things that are sustaining the relationship are a shared hostility to American dominance and concern (probably on both sides, even if one is clearly stronger than the other) for how ugly things could get if the pretense of friendliness drops away while the areas of contention are still hotspots. Turkey and Russia are both trying to do the quivalent of the trump handshake to each other diplomatically. Yes they are handshaking, but there is strong feelings of angst in that shake. Turkey shoots down a russian jet and russia responds back etc. Neither side can afford to look weak to the other. So it's a  type of relationship.
WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Jul 21, 2020 |
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Jul 21, 2020 02:15
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King Salman is in the hospital. Inflammed Gall bladder apparently. Too soon to blow a load on theory crafting what will happen to the royal family if MBS becomes King.
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Jul 21, 2020 17:56
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So, something light to take peoples minds off Libya for a bit: I ran into something weird on a story I had been enjoying on Sufficient Velocity (gist of it is, modern earth is transplanted on to a high fantasy mega world). The author seems to believe that not only is Egypt's government not a dictatorship, it is actually secretly run by communists and socialists in the ruling coalition who are going to make things better any day now and that this is all being hidden by the biased news media. The author credits this revelation to the one Egyptian guy he talks to online. So is this a thing some people in Egypt believe or just some lone weirdo capable of fooling gullible 20 somethings? I can't think of another conspiracy theory that claims the power behind the throne is benevolent social democrats.
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Jul 24, 2020 23:57
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Cogliermo posted:So, something light to take peoples minds off Libya for a bit: I ran into something weird on a story I had been enjoying on Sufficient Velocity (gist of it is, modern earth is transplanted on to a high fantasy mega world). The author seems to believe that not only is Egypt's government not a dictatorship, it is actually secretly run by communists and socialists in the ruling coalition who are going to make things better any day now and that this is all being hidden by the biased news media. The author credits this revelation to the one Egyptian guy he talks to online. There was a leak from a secret event these socialist-communists held a couple of years back and it's basically open knowledge in Egypt at this point, here's a picture: 
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Jul 25, 2020 00:38
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/\ holy poo poo ham, ahaha Cogliermo posted:So, something light to take peoples minds off Libya for a bit: I ran into something weird on a story I had been enjoying on Sufficient Velocity (gist of it is, modern earth is transplanted on to a high fantasy mega world). The author seems to believe that not only is Egypt's government not a dictatorship, it is actually secretly run by communists and socialists in the ruling coalition who are going to make things better any day now and that this is all being hidden by the biased news media. The author credits this revelation to the one Egyptian guy he talks to online. which do you think?
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Jul 25, 2020 00:49
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Herstory Begins Now posted:/\ Cogliermo fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Jul 25, 2020 |
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Jul 25, 2020 01:28
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That seems to be the exact same logic used by extremely online tankies to lionize (lol) Bashar Al Assad.
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Jul 25, 2020 01:31
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ToxicAcne posted:That seems to be the exact same logic used by extremely online tankies to lionize (lol) Bashar Al Assad.
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Jul 25, 2020 01:51
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Cogliermo posted:But that's the wild thing about it, he doesn't like Sisi! He thinks the parliament and prime minister (a known communist, of course) are really in charge, I guess because the constitution says so? It's like saying Rojava is the real power in Damascus. In America we have a great democracy because the Constitution protects all of our rights. It says so in the constitution!
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Jul 25, 2020 02:44
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Cogliermo posted:But that's the wild thing about it, he doesn't like Sisi! He thinks the parliament and prime minister (a known communist, of course) are really in charge, I guess because the constitution says so? It's like saying Rojava is the real power in Damascus. I'm beginning to think this person may be an idiot.
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Jul 25, 2020 03:38
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Cogliermo posted:I can't find anyone else saying this so I'm inclined to say lone wolf or whatever you call that, but its not like I'm searching for Egyptian Whats App users or wherever this thing would live. I figure it's got to be a nationalist thing, because the same person also says that Turkey is a pathetic dysfunctional state under a right wind strongman doomed to decline, which honestly sounds like projection coming from him. The only source he provided was the Egyptian constitution, because anything in Arabic would clearly be indecipherable to us ignorant westerners. I apparently can't ask my old Egyptian Arabic teacher to translate, because the diaspora are all islamists or wealthy anti-Nasserites (he also mentioned they are majority Coptic, which is an obvious red flag to me). So basically it's like standard nationalist shitposting, but nominally left wing. Maybe he's tailoring the message for the Sufficient Velocity demographic? Some people are actually buying into it, because it comes from a real Egyptian who knows Arabic. Lots of countries have turbo nationalist lefties. Check out Greece and Turkey.
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Jul 25, 2020 04:12
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Azerbaijan is posting cringe. https://twitter.com/wwwmodgovaz/status/1290284395115372545
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Aug 3, 2020 17:15
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Sinteres posted:Azerbaijan is posting cringe. ...why though? To what end? Who are they trying to big dick with this sad fake? Azerbaijan this is not the time!
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Aug 3, 2020 17:22
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Afghan forces besiege jail seized by Islamic State, hundreds of prisoners missing https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...source=Facebook
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Aug 3, 2020 17:22
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sexpig by night posted:...why though? To what end? Who are they trying to big dick with this sad fake? I assume it's for domestic consumption (they must assume their people are morons), but ostensibly it's to show Armenia how tough they are. lmao, this wasn't the first one: https://twitter.com/wwwmodgovaz/status/1289570633689509889 Maybe it's intentionally bad? Ukraine posts memes so it's possible but I don't see the benefit to making a joke of your military. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Aug 3, 2020 |
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Aug 3, 2020 17:39
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Sinteres posted:I assume it's for domestic consumption (they must assume their people are morons), but ostensibly it's to show Armenia how tough they are. Those look like David Dees did them.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:18
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oh my god someone put a crying child getting a booster shot in that right now
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Aug 3, 2020 19:24
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Also needs some looming Armenian politicians with whited out eyes and bleeding stars of david on their foreheads.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:35
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Grape posted:Also needs some looming Armenian politicians with whited out eyes and bleeding stars of david on their foreheads. Photoshopped giant noses with flames shooting out of nostrils would be a solid touch
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Aug 3, 2020 19:57
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Something's happening in Beruit https://twitter.com/GinoRaidy/status/1290671286327353344
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Aug 4, 2020 16:46
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Another tweet. That’s huge! https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1290671772195532801?s=20
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