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Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Alctel posted:

Got this in the mailbox of my (rented) apartment today

Looks like investors just buying up as much stuff as they can get, according to this they already got 42!

Not really sure how anyone without family money / venture capital is supposed to buy at this point as housing stock just gets consolidated into fewer and fewer hands



Can't even afford a typewriter.

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Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

quote:

“We can't make homeownership profitable and make housing affordable at the same time,” Swanson explained, “I think those two things are mutually exclusive they pull in opposite directions.”

I think you could make these not mutually exclusive but you'd need to dramatically shift how housing works in Canada.

If there was a government not for profit agency that built public rental housing with a mandate to make as much as possible below market I think you could create affordable housing. At the same time there could remain the option to buy private housing to gain whatever intangible values comes out of that (ie. features beyond what government housing offers, more freedom to do what you want). There's probably enough of a market for this that the value of private land would rise beyond inflation.

Where this could break down would be I suppose if both the private and public developers are competing for the same parcels of land, thus increasing the land values and eroding the potential for affordable public housing, but you'd think that low government interest rates + the ability for government to upzone and recapture new land lift valuations would compensate for that.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Aug 1, 2020

RBC
Nov 23, 2007

IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

Shofixti posted:

Last year my parents got an almost identical note in Hamilton. I guess this is pretty wide spread.



these are sent out all accross the province its not handwritten its just a stupid flyer for a house flipping company

https://www.cashhousebuyer.ca

Defenistrator
Mar 27, 2007
Ask me about my burritos
Burn all speculators.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Bout to crash the market finally by buying a house in Victoria at the top of the bubble.

qhat
Jul 6, 2015


You guys about to lose a lot of money

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

qhat posted:

You guys about to lose a lot of money

So what? I’m also buying, and it might be the peak of the bubble, but to me there are a ton of non monetary reasons why I’m buying. It’s a place to live, not an investment.

large hands
Jan 24, 2006
Eh, Whistler and Victoria are probably pretty safe places to buy, honestly (at least until it gets warm enough that you can't ski in Whistler). We'll probably be getting a bigger place in Victoria but I think we'll wait until next summer.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

qhat posted:

You guys about to lose a lot of money

I mean, this goes with buying a place regardless. They’re money holes.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

large hands posted:

Eh, Whistler and Victoria are probably pretty safe places to buy, honestly (at least until it gets warm enough that you can't ski in Whistler). We'll probably be getting a bigger place in Victoria but I think we'll wait until next summer.

The market here has already dropped a solid 10% since covid and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a lot worse before it gets better. 30% of the properties here are owned by Americans who suddenly realized they can't spend time at their summer homes, and here's hoping all the AirBNBs have to sell at a huge loss, too. So I wouldn't be surprised if in the shorter term (next 3-5 years) we do lose a ton of money on this place. But yeah, there are a ton of other reasons why I want to buy, and since it's a place to live and not an investment, I'm not especially concerned about the value dropping. Owning won't be THAT much more expensive than renting here, and comes with a ton more advantages, mainly stability related.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I've had three loving properties sell out from under me in the Stikine in the past month, including my dream house which had sat on the market for four years. Anything with even barely arable land and not hours up a dirt road is selling like mad up there.

Might end up buying something hours up a dirt road at this rate...

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

qhat posted:

You guys about to lose a lot of money

This is a familiar post! I was the idiot in 2016, chided for not waiting a few months to save hundreds of thousands of dollars. It turned out...ok.

This thread has good posts and interesting analysis, but low predictive power.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Same around Montreal, it's loving nuts

A house on my street sold almost instantly last fall (Montreal Suburbs). The previous owner had been running it as a boarding house for foreign students without doing any maintenance whatsoever, and it was in a pretty rough shape. Since it sold for so high, so fast, I figured it was going to get a thin coat of paint and flipped ASAP. Nope! the new owners were just in such a rush to get the house that they made a high offer without realizing the extent of the work needed on the place (At least 150K, if not a lot more). It goes without saying that they are not pleased. As a bonus, the previous owner has long left the country, so they don't even have a chance to recoup part of the hidden defects.

This market is messing with people's minds.

Aramis fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Aug 3, 2020

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Rime posted:

I've had three loving properties sell out from under me in the Stikine in the past month, including my dream house which had sat on the market for four years. Anything with even barely arable land and not hours up a dirt road is selling like mad up there.

Might end up buying something hours up a dirt road at this rate...

I'm hearing that recreational property is on fire right now. My brother told me a pal of his at LandQuest told him that they're having their best year ever.

Rich tech bros that are being told by their companies that they can WFH until 2021 (maybe forever) and are looking to buy in places where they can work remote for months at a time. Not sure Stikine would have the fibre required for that lifestyle, but plenty of other places do.

Add me to the pile of people who bought recently (end of 2019) so now the market is allowed to crash. Coincidentally I chatted with my realtor yesterday and asked him how he is. He said he's working 12 hour days. Super busy.

I'm seeing a mixed market at the moment. Seems like a lot of briskly appearing "sold" stickers on for sale signs on SFH houses and townhouses around, but I'm also seeing listings for obvious ex-Airbnb condos pile up. Could be that given the fear of pandemic lock down, there's a demand for "space" and products that can't provide that (eg. 500 sqft condos) aren't really moving.

ARACHTION
Mar 10, 2012

One of the only things I’m happy about after splitting with my fiancé is passing the hot potato of our overpriced 1br skybox this month.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Bank Of Canada Pumping Billions Into Mortgage Liquidity To Prop Up Real Estate



That graph, LMBAO.

Sassafras
Dec 24, 2004

by Athanatos
The other way to think of it is in terms of houses. Really, they only have "bailed out" like 4000 houses in the GTA, 2000 in Metro Vancouver, and maybe a couple hundred elsewhere.

As there are something like 60k SFHs in CoV alone... Small potatoes. Wasn't hot money from China WAY bigger until 2016?

upgunned shitpost
Jan 21, 2015

RBC posted:

these are sent out all accross the province its not handwritten its just a stupid flyer for a house flipping company

https://www.cashhousebuyer.ca

got handed a stack of flyers like these for my mail route about four years ago. they were rejected at the depot and had to be re-written cuz no one could figure out if he wanted to buy your house or was a pedophile.

vancouver area, looked like it resembled a yellow legal pad and kept going on about his 'caffeine buzz'.

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


My friends mortgage broker is insanely busy right now (in ottawa)

I was saying I bet a lot of the smaller island properties and houses get snapped up now with the WFH boom

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

A friend of mine bought in a new development in Grimsby in March just before the lockdown, and 4 weeks later the developer had bumped the prices by $50K on identical houses.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Lotta Pent Up Demand

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/status/1290673870987358214?s=21

BUY NOW

Tsyni
Sep 1, 2004
Lipstick Apathy
Never thought I'd buy a house, but maybe I will now just in case.

Mameluke
Aug 2, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Femtosecond posted:

I'm hearing that recreational property is on fire right now. My brother told me a pal of his at LandQuest told him that they're having their best year ever.

Rich tech bros that are being told by their companies that they can WFH until 2021 (maybe forever) and are looking to buy in places where they can work remote for months at a time. Not sure Stikine would have the fibre required for that lifestyle, but plenty of other places do.

Lotta petite bourgeois people thinking they've found One Weird Trick to survive the climate apocalypse imo

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

Subjunctive posted:

This is a familiar post! I was the idiot in 2016, chided for not waiting a few months to save hundreds of thousands of dollars. It turned out...ok.

This thread has good posts and interesting analysis, but low predictive power.

Yeah no kidding. The housing bubble to this thread has been the Canadian version of "I'd like to see the ol' bubble wriggle it's way out of this one! *bubble continues* Ah! Well, nevertheless"

queeb
Jun 10, 2004

m



pretty sure my 5 year old daughter will just have to inherit our house when i die, no way shes affording a house anywhere. Me and the wife are living in our starter home that we paid like 210k for 7 years ago now, and its worth like 380-400 now, and this is middle of nowhere like 45 mins south of hamilton, on

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I got a mortgage at TD. They bungled every step, constantly asking for more documents, constantly telling me we were done, then coming back and saying ooops we forgot to ask for X and Y documents too. Over and over, for a month. We almost missed out on the house due to how lovely TD was.

Since we have a TD mortgage offer signed and in place we are now trying to get a broker who knows what they're doing to get us a better one in between going unconditional and signing everything with the lawyers. Oh god TD is so bad at this. don't go with TD...

Gorewar
Dec 24, 2004

Bang your head

Baronjutter posted:

I got a mortgage at TD. They bungled every step, constantly asking for more documents, constantly telling me we were done, then coming back and saying ooops we forgot to ask for X and Y documents too. Over and over, for a month. We almost missed out on the house due to how lovely TD was.

Since we have a TD mortgage offer signed and in place we are now trying to get a broker who knows what they're doing to get us a better one in between going unconditional and signing everything with the lawyers. Oh god TD is so bad at this. don't go with TD...

Honestly, I think this is every mortgage lender.

odiv
Jan 12, 2003

Tsyni posted:

Never thought I'd buy a house, but maybe I will now just in case.
I have one, but maybe I should get a backup?

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

odiv posted:

I have one, but maybe I should get a backup?

if you have a backup house you can use it to store all your backup toilet paper too

Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

Arivia posted:

if you have a backup house you can use it to store all your backup toilet paper too

Pro move

half cocaine
Jul 22, 2019


If the bank forecloses one house, you can still live in your backup house!

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

There's no hope is there huh. They'll never let housing become affordable again.

I should accelerate my plans to leave this place but idk where to go. The cheaper places in Canada probably don't have jobs for me so maybe leave the country entirely (after the pandemic), but loving where to lol.

Classon Ave. Robot
Oct 7, 2019

by Athanatos
None of the countries that are any better than Canada want you there if you don't have high demand qualifications, and lots of them are more vulnerable than we are to the rapidly approaching consequences of climate change anyways.

large hands
Jan 24, 2006
Is it a coincidence that housing prices are sky high in Canada/AUS/NZ? makes sense that people are trying to get into those countries with relatively sane and stable democracies that will sell land and citizenship if you're rich enough

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

Apparently, if you make over $50k USD per year and work remotely, you can telecommute from Barbados...

qhat
Jul 6, 2015


Home prices have very little to do with how rich your population is and everything to do with how much credit is available to the population. Once the credit stops, the home prices collapse.

Gorau
Apr 28, 2008
Agreed. Which is why I don’t think prices are going to collapse. The amount of money being pumped into the financial system has to go somewhere, and if we’re not seeing price inflation generally, it’s probably going into asset price inflation, ie home prices and stock prices.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Globe and Mail doesn't have any foreign buyer stuff to report on any more, so they're increasingly publishing concern trolling pieces about new Vancouver developments.

quote:


Five-storey laneway building raises questions over who Vancouver is adding density for

A new five-storey laneway apartment building in Vancouver’s Commercial Drive neighbourhood offers a glimpse into the future of density in the city, while also raising questions about who exactly density is for in Vancouver.

The development, designed by Cornerstone Architecture, is around a month from completion and soon to go on the rental market. Its uniqueness lies in its height and location at the backend of a larger property, much like a laneway house, which architect Scott Kennedy quipped about on Twitter.

The infill development has four one-bedroom units and four two-bedroom units spread over four floors, in addition to a ground floor serving as a lobby area. The building was also developed under heritage requirements, which necessitated preserving the heritage building at the front end of the property. Cornerstone architect
Luke Han, who worked closely on the project, says he had to get creative with the tight property lines in order to fit all eight units on the 9,560-square-foot site, although they were able to receive a slight exemption to the height limit.

From the city’s perspective, the compromises were worth it because of the large incentive to secure market rentals along Commercial Drive, a highly sought-after neighbourhood in Vancouver. City of Vancouver director of development services Andrea Law believes this type of development is indicative of the direction that the city hopes to pursue.

However, while the building, which is located at 1102 Commercial Drive, does increase the number of rental units available in a competitive part of the city, there are concerns as to who the target renter is.

“It’s unclear to me who the units are for,” says Lisa Moffatt, an urban planner and owner of the consulting firm Resilience Planning who lives in the neighbourhood. While she appreciates that the development activates an underutilized laneway, she points out that the units are market rentals, meaning that a large segment of Vancouver will be unable to afford them, an exclusion that particularly affects marginalized groups.


Really you can't seem to imagine there existing anyone in Vancouver anyone who can afford $1800 rent?? Why am I starting to think that the fact that you live in the neighbourhood is the core thing creating your concerns about this project?

quote:

...
While the units are not available yet, Mr. Kennedy estimates that the one-bedroom units should go anywhere from $1,700-$1,800 a month, while the two-bedroom units would cost between $2,200-$2,500 a month.

Vancouver’s 10-year housing plan, approved in 2017, set out a goal of having 50 per cent of new homes being affordable for family households earning under $80,000. Affordability in Vancouver is defined as spending less than 30 per cent of one’s income before taxes on rent, meaning that a household earning $80,000 a year would pay at most $2,000 a month.

However, Vancouver’s 2020 progress report on its housing plan shows that the city is far behind its affordability goals. In 2019, Vancouver built just 61 below-market rental units, short of its goal of 400. In the three years since the plan was approved, only 34 per cent of approved homes have been affordable to incomes below $80,000.

The units being sold at market price is one reason Ms. Moffatt is critical of the development, but she believes the conversation should be more focused around challenging what planners mean when they talk about density.

“I think we keep asking the wrong question in the density-slash-affordability conversations,” she says. “What is the problem we’re trying to address with density? It’s unclear. Is it to provide more housing or affordable housing? Providing more density is like a Band Aid; it doesn’t get to the root causes of what made housing unaffordable.”

She says that rather than just saturating the market to address affordability, it would be more effective to take an intersectional approach to planning. Current mainstream discussions around density ignore social determinants of health, income, race and disability, which effectively exclude large segments of Vancouver’s population and heighten the housing crisis, Ms. Moffatt says.

For instance, Vancouver’s housing report recognizes that Indigenous peoples in the city are disproportionately affected by the housing crisis and includes pledges to rectify the issue. However, Ms. Moffatt says she has yet to see any tangible progress.

“Vancouver made a commitment to reconciliation several years ago,” she says. “That needs to be taken into consideration where housing is concerned and recognizing that we are all operating on stolen land.”

Vancouver’s 2019 housing report also found that the number of unsheltered homeless people in the city increased in the year prior by 122 people, with 40 per cent of the population identifying as Indigenous. Indigenous peoples only account for 2.2 per cent of Vancouver’s wider population.

“When we talk about density, what I wonder is, what does a decolonial approach to density look like, and why are we not asking that question?” Ms. Moffatt says.
....

This has got to be be one of the more bat poo poo insane I've heard a planner say.

What is a decolonial approach to density Ms. Moffatt? Maybe instead of just leaving questions hanging there, suggesting that adding more infill density is somehow anti-indigenous, you could help answer the question by providing an alternative?

IMO a decolonial approach to planning could be to simply hand over more lands that were stolen away from the Squamish and Musqueam and let them develop those lands as they'd like without settler planners chiming in. How'd you like that idea?

Ironically of course, the Squamish's Senakw development on the tiny sliver of lands by Vanier Park they have left is being developed into incredibly high density market rental project so....

quote:

....
Like Ms. Moffatt, Mr. Kennedy also has concerns around discussions of density, as he cautions against approaching it as the solution to rising house prices.

“Is more density going to make it more affordable? Not necessarily, because the price of land goes up when the density goes up. So you have to somehow control the price of land as you get density.”

Yeah the CoV already takes 75% of the land value from rezones via Community Amenity Contributions but go on pretend this doesn't happen...

quote:

...
He is particularly concerned about densification’s effects on Vancouver’s more unique neighbourhoods. It isn’t only that small businesses tend to get pushed out when commercials streets are targeted for densification, he says, but that commercials streets are more likely to be targeted in the first place.

A better future for density could look like gentler developments or densifications in the lanes behind commercials streets, Mr. Kennedy says. In either case, his firm’s new development could act as a model for future developments.

These pressures around densification are not lost on the city, Ms. Law says, and discussions around it are always evolving at the municipal level around how to better support communities and neighbourhoods experiencing change.

At the end of it all, any conversation around housing in Vancouver must be about listening to the needs of the community and looking at how those needs can best be met.

“It’s really about balancing the tradeoffs,” she says.

While this new development is a fairly simple project and in fact is under the maximum allowable density, it is notable because of the role it plays in Vancouver’s larger plans for increasing density.

As Vancouver moves forward with its plan to dramatically increase the number of units available to residents of all incomes, its laneways may soon be seeing more of these types of developments accompanied by more questions around what density means.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Aug 7, 2020

upgunned shitpost
Jan 21, 2015

community around the drive has collectively lost housing over the last few years. some come back piecemeal and there are always new faces, but watching it dwindle as we're slowly atomized across the suburbs into basements so we can pay someone's mortgage loving sucks. like really lovely.

and... I know it kinda seems that way, but squamish ain't my people. doesn't really work like that.

edit: that was a little more rude and vague than I would have liked. the squamish nation is it's own cultural and unfortunately, legal identity. just because someone may identify as indigenous or have a status card doesn't mean the senakw development offers them any advantages for housing. last I heard they were reserving... bleh... a large number of units for members of the nation, which is cool and good since they make up a big part of the community in vancouver. if they extend that further, say to everyone on a band registration in bc I'm Gaanaxteidí, so while I'm doing okay people in my particular circumstance might not be able to access that housing. when it comes to... even the idea of generational housing in vancouver tied to status it becomes complicated. my card says 6(2), my kids look mostly Han, yukon not china, and I've done my best, but they can never be added to the band registry.

poo poo gets complicated.

upgunned shitpost fucked around with this message at 07:33 on Aug 7, 2020

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Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

upgunned shitpost posted:

community around the drive has collectively lost housing over the last few years. some come back piecemeal and there are always new faces, but watching it dwindle as we're slowly atomized across the suburbs into basements so we can pay someone's mortgage loving sucks. like really lovely.

10 years ago working class hoods like Grandview Woodlands and Strathcona were places where students and young workers could rent a house for cheap, and these neighbourhoods were great and vibrant for renters but jump ahead to now, post bubble, and houses in GW have been turned over and are occupied by the Dunbar Diaspora, rich west siders that sold their homes to hot asian money, pocketed a few mil' then bought relatively cheap SFHs in East Van. Now they're trying to keep Grandview Woodlands as an exclusive SFH zone for rich people just the way that Dunbar was. Same poo poo is going on in Strathcona though I think that gentrification process has been going on even longer.

Working class progressives in GW that are still lucky enough to be renting full houses in GW are just trying to hold onto what they have, and oppose any new development that they think may displace them, but they're hosed either way. It's only a matter of time before their landlord sells the house out from under them and it goes from being the residence of 3-4 low income renters to a single yuppy family.

What's the worse long term outcome here, developers are able to build apartments and there is at least some ability for working class people to remain in the neighbourhood, or GW becomes an elite SFH 'hood like Dunbar and working class people are scattered to the wind?

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