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Ike was also President during Peak Pax-Americana so that had a big part in it.
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Aug 5, 2020 22:04
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Rigel posted:17.7%, 1932 (FDR) These two being right next to each other is deeply funny to me.
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Aug 5, 2020 22:08
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Ike was also President during Peak Pax-Americana so that had a big part in it. Fun fact he was last Republican president to ever push for civil rights legislation. sean10mm fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Aug 5, 2020 |
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Aug 5, 2020 22:57
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Two GE polls today from two quality outfits +12 from IPSOS/Reuters +9 from YouGov/Economist and two polls from two lovely outfits +3 from Rasmussen +3 from HarrisX Which hosed up the 538 aggregate to drop it to +7.6. For reference Harris X had the race at 43-39 in mid June at the height of the protests when Biden was at the peak of his polling. Today 43-40. They suck. We desperately need CNN, Monmouth, ABC or others like that to drop new polls already. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Aug 5, 2020 |
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Aug 5, 2020 23:08
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evilweasel posted:i would anticipate things get worse, not better, for trump - but the key is that covid injects substantial uncertainty and provides a plausible path for votes that were steady previously to change I would wait till the end of August when this dumbfuck's death cultists on school boards across the country force the schools to open to recreate the Black Death
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Aug 6, 2020 01:19
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howe_sam posted:These two being right next to each other is deeply funny to me. harding and cooledge were very popular at the time because a ton of people were hosed up by ww1 and spanish flu and wanted to go back to normal and prosperous and that happened under them. hoover comes in and when the house of cards falls down, he has no loving idea what to do and while he is well meaning at first, he gets scared by the bonus march and sends out the army in and he is hosed after that. plus just not knowing what to do when the poo poo went to hell. hoover was in my opinion the last gilded age president.
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Aug 6, 2020 01:27
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Xombie posted:It literally does.
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Aug 6, 2020 01:41
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Two GE polls today from two quality outfits Political Polls needs to drop Rasmussen and HarrisX. gently caress being non-partisan
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Aug 6, 2020 01:47
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Should I be stressing out over Kanye getting on state ballots because I am getting scared at how hard GOP is pushing this and that this gambit could actually make a difference.
Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Aug 6, 2020 |
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Aug 6, 2020 01:59
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Dapper_Swindler posted:harding and cooledge were very popular at the time because a ton of people were hosed up by ww1 and spanish flu and wanted to go back to normal and prosperous and that happened under them.  In brighter news I'm real curious about the nyag announcement tomorrow.
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Aug 6, 2020 02:29
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GreyjoyBastard posted:In brighter news I'm real curious about the nyag announcement tomorrow. https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1291168208997830663?s=21
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Aug 6, 2020 02:36
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My Twitter Account posted:With regard to the election, sure. With regard to the fact that if he wins he has to actually assume office and actually govern, it does loving not. This thread is limited to the former.
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Aug 6, 2020 03:25
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Should I be stressing out over Kanye getting on state ballots because I am getting scared at how hard GOP is pushing this and that this gambit could actually make a difference. I mean wasn't there a poll showing that Kanye was more likely to have a slight spoiler effect on Trump instead of on Biden?
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Aug 6, 2020 03:29
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Xombie posted:This thread is limited to the former. This rule seems to be unevenly applied.
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Aug 6, 2020 03:36
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GreyjoyBastard posted:
i mean the prosperous stuff was under harding and cooledge for various reasons. lots of short term gains and everything being used as collatoral on the stock market and poo poo. hoovers economy was still alright until it pooped blood and than collapsed over a period of year and half or so. on your other point. id be curious too. kinda hope he pulls a comey on him and he loses his poo poo.
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Aug 6, 2020 03:48
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Dapper_Swindler posted:hoovers economy was still alright until it pooped blood and than collapsed over a period of year and half or so. Again, hmmmmm.
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Aug 6, 2020 04:06
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Somfin posted:This rule seems to be unevenly applied. In that people are allowed to talk about a hypothetical second term of Trump and what he would do, and NOT Biden's hypothetical first term? I don't think so.
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Aug 6, 2020 04:20
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Digamma-F-Wau posted:I mean wasn't there a poll showing that Kanye was more likely to have a slight spoiler effect on Trump instead of on Biden? Kanye's platform - to the extent that he has one besides "I am a god" - is deeply religious and anti-abortion and skeptical of structural action against racism in a very "black people are on the democrat's plantation" kinda way. There's no real reason to think he'll pull any meaningful number of democratic voters beyond the fact that he is black. And in my experience, black people I've met or whose thoughts I've read on the matter have a complicated opinion on Kanye at best, not the sort of thing I'd expect to overwhelm any discussion of the sorts of policy where Kanye is an obvious mess. If we get hard data to suggest the opposite at some point or if Kanye starts, uh, actually campaigning then I'm perfectly willing to be wrong on that front, but if Biden loses I see zero reason to expect that Kanye will have anything to do with it.
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Aug 6, 2020 04:54
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291230401160261632
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Aug 6, 2020 06:11
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Kanye has zero chance of pulling off any voters from anyone. It's an incoherent mess of a campaign by a person that's obviously mentally unwell.
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Aug 6, 2020 06:33
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_____ has zero chance of pulling off any voters from anyone. It's an incoherent mess of a campaign by a person that's obviously mentally unwell.
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Aug 6, 2020 07:53
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The only person who’s gonna vote for Kanye is someone who was already planning on writing in Bugs Bunny or some poo poo like that.
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Aug 6, 2020 07:59
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If that campaign event from Kanye like a week ago where he told people not to cheer is anything to go by then I insist that he be allowed in at the Biden Trump debates
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Aug 6, 2020 08:38
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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:Crosspost from USPOL on a possible explanation: Love the implication that they stopped laundering Russian money after the 1990s.
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Aug 6, 2020 12:21
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291355426848677889
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Aug 6, 2020 16:31
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 loving Iowa might be flipping
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Aug 6, 2020 16:34
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It still shocks me that North Carolina is one of the states with the biggest lead. I am concerned though that I think I recall in 2014 the democratic senator in North Carolina lead wire-to-wire with a reasonably big lead and Tillis squeaked it out on election day.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:36
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evilweasel posted:It still shocks me that North Carolina is one of the states with the biggest lead. I am concerned though that I think I recall in 2014 the democratic senator in North Carolina lead wire-to-wire with a reasonably big lead and Tillis squeaked it out on election day. 2014 got hosed by white people being repulsed by BLM and fear mongering over Ebola.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:37
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291357509282824193 Is Biden really up by 5 in Texas, or is this Bizarro World, or is this poster bad?
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Aug 6, 2020 16:44
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TwoQuestions posted:https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291357509282824193 He’s up 5 in that TX district. I don’t know how that district voted in 2016.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:46
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That's the district with Denton in it. It's fairly red but neither of them is incumbent, it's the one Kenny Marchant said he's not running for election in. Last election Marchant won by a small amount so I think most are expecting it to flip in a dem election.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:49
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:He’s up 5 in that TX district. I don’t know how that district voted in 2016. in 2018, it went for the republican incumbent by three points and beto by three points; in 2016 it went trump by six points so yeah, it flipping is expected given that beto result
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Aug 6, 2020 16:51
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so once again, a roughly 10 point shift
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Aug 6, 2020 16:52
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That district went +6 Trump in 2016 and +3 for Beto in 2018. It's +9 R according to the Cook PVI. It's mostly suburbs, wealthier/more educated than average and is exactly the kind of district you'd expect to be swinging D given the trends we're seeing elsewhere.
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Aug 6, 2020 16:56
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Rigel posted:so once again, a roughly 10 point shift since it's a suburb so you should not extrapolate its swing to the state as a whole, since it's pretty well established at this point that suburbs are seeing the biggest anti-trump swing from 2016 to now
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Aug 6, 2020 16:58
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https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1291437339038949377 That's a *much* closer race in KY than other polls have shown, and it makes me a bit skeptical of these polls overall.
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Aug 6, 2020 19:16
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DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1291437339038949377 Quinnipiac is a really highly regarded pollster. Which as Nate always points out, means they publish and produce weird outliers sometimes. EDIT: lol also in their data is the two Maine sub-districts. One is going +1 for Trump, the other is going +31 for Biden. Grape fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Aug 6, 2020 |
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Aug 6, 2020 19:34
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https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1291445080461541378 womp womp
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Aug 6, 2020 19:45
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Now I hope Trump threatens to skip them all.
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Aug 6, 2020 19:46
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Get hosed, Lindsey.
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Aug 6, 2020 19:53
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