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Alctel posted:But if interest rates go back up, wouldn't there suddenly be a big ol crash as everyone starts shedding excess properties? Or when the boomers start dying off en-mass? Canadian housing prices have held out better than American prices. People just aren't selling because they don't have to due to mortgage deferrals. I can't speak for your area but in my area (GTA) they are going up again. CMHC was predicting a drop over the next 18 months of 9 to 18%. I am personally waiting until the fall to see what happens.
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Aug 10, 2020 17:49
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doingitwrong posted:A big part of Canada West Coast real estate prices have to do with wealthy people fleeing Hong Kong and boomers in general looking to retire somewhere nice, right? Vaguely yes but it corrected about 15-20% since the government added some foreign buyer taxes and an "anti-speculation tax" which punishes people for keeping property vacant (ie. piede a terres). Vancouver market, particularly detached houses, on the upside right now due to low interest rates driving things.
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Aug 10, 2020 17:50
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pmchem posted:boy do I have the perfect product for you: Wow this looks pretty dang interesting, I’ll add FALN to my list and do some reading tonight.
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Aug 10, 2020 17:57
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Canada does not have true fixed-rate mortgages, which makes it a completely different beast than US real estate. People in the US right now are locking in 30-year mortgages below 3% and that rate never expires. In Canada, what they call a "fixed rate" is... not. It's essentially an ARM, with the fixed rate period being no more than I think 10 years and more typically 2-5 years. That said, rates are so low on mortgages that they could double without pushing people's monthly payment calculations in to the "unaffordable" realm for houses. Most people are flexibile enough on their payments that they won't just flip from "willing to buy now" to "not willing to buy now" on (say) $350k houses, just because it's going to cost them an extra hundred dollars a month in interest. A much, much, much bigger concern is long-term unemployment. Housing prices collapse when unemployment spikes. Right now the entire housing market is coasting on the shaky assumption that the massive unemployment is temporary and everyone's going to go back to work soon (like within the next six months) and we're not going to see a massive wave of foreclosures. Banks are deferring foreclosures because they don't actually want to foreclose (and I think in a few states they're being prohibited from doing so) but that is not a permanent situation. So, housing prices could fall in the future, yes. But just as I would advise in both the housebuying and long-term investing threads: it's impossible to time that. There's a solid chance that continuing relief plus effective treatment or a vaccine this winter results in prices staying flat; and also that a slowdown in new home construction, increase in speculative investor activity, or some other factor supports a solid floor to home prices. Again though this is all US. Canadian real estate is a different thing and I won't even speculate as to how it'll go. You have all kinds of poo poo like: what happens if canadian shale stays unprofitable long-term, what will happen if canadian interest rates rise (which affects almost all mortgage-holders in the country, lol), what happens if people living in the biggest cities start to telecommute full time and flee to outlying areas, and I dunno, the weather is probably a factor too. 
Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Aug 10, 2020 |
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Aug 10, 2020 18:58
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D-Pad posted:My wife is a local and a partner in a business here so we will be in Austin forever. Prices are high, but we are looking at houses in a price range that is significantly less than we can afford and would end up being cheaper than what we are paying to rent now. Found a great house a couple blocks from where we rent that just had a complete remodel and put an offer in. Well that makes a lot more sense. Sorry I have a kneejerk reaction to people coming to Austin and buying a single family residence due to being at the age where I'm seeing my friends all start to do it. Make sure you get a foundation inspection.
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Aug 10, 2020 18:59
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yeah -- my real estate / mortgage post only applies to the US market
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Aug 10, 2020 19:03
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freezepops posted:Wow this looks pretty dang interesting, I’ll add FALN to my list and do some reading tonight. have fun. BTW, technically, the Fed is only buying ANGL so far (a very similar ETF), but I like FALN more and they have some overlapping holdings so the implicit fed backing is similar.
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Aug 10, 2020 19:04
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anyone here good at reading balance sheets? paging agronox and baddog and dwight? HD and LOW both have trending downward price/book value. HD's is actually negative book value, negative shareholder equity: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HD/home-depot/balance-sheet https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HD/home-depot/price-book and https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LOW/lowes/balance-sheet https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LOW/lowes/price-book these are both big, successful companies expected to smash earnings next week. what's the deal, why is their book value trend garbage? why is that not worrisome?
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Aug 10, 2020 19:30
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What would it take for Vancouver prices to go down tenfold? Mass-eviction of the wealthy?
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Aug 10, 2020 19:52
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50 feet of sealevel rise and/or annexation by Trump. Probably not even sealevel rise, actually. People would just build marinas around the 6th floor of their luxury condo towers.
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Aug 10, 2020 19:57
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Stop calling Vancouver the best place to live if it's also the most expensive place to live.
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Aug 10, 2020 19:58
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Sold some MCRB aug 7.5 puts for 0.3 , IV over 400. I really like these opportunities with inherent downside protection (strike under 10), less than 2 weeks till expiration, and a massive pop in IV on substantial news (positive news on phase 3 approval for a big time drug). Should probably sell more, but already a lot of positions open. And holy poo poo I'm glad I bailed on Kodak a few days ago, although the IV was so high when I entered, it still isn't *that* big a loser from there. code:Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Aug 10, 2020 |
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Aug 10, 2020 20:05
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In anticipation of the election I'm starting to eye up volatility equities (ie VIX). It seems to be moving towards a low enough point to justify entry to a position to be held until likely the day after the election in November. Is there any way volatility doesn't spike somewhere around that first week in November? Surely at some point in there something is going to happen to send it significantly higher than it's current range. I think either a blue to red win would cause enough chaos to move volatility up enough to exit with a decent gain. Any reason why holding volatility equities (not necessarily VIX, but perhaps something similar) for that time frame isn't a good idea? Obviously I'd stay away from anything leveraged to avoid decay, but with the state of the world combined with such a prominent event, it seems like a really safe and potentially lucrative play to me. Edit - VXX is likely the one I'm looking at. Shappa fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Aug 10, 2020 |
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Aug 10, 2020 20:30
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Shappa posted:In anticipation of the election I'm starting to eye up volatility equities (ie VIX). It seems to be moving towards a low enough point to justify entry to a position to be held until likely the day after the election in November. iirc volatility ETFs end up losing money over the long term (and I think November counts) because they end up churning new contracts, which ends up chewing through your principal investment. I think.
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Aug 10, 2020 20:44
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pmchem posted:anyone here good at reading balance sheets? paging agronox and baddog and dwight? As long as their revenue keeps going up, they can keep on taking on more debt and its not an issue. You're right, it would be nice if shareholder equity was increasing rather than decreasing! But the executives think they can use that debt to grow. My question is, where are they growing though? Already a home depot and a lowes on every corner. Would have to dig into the annual report a bit more - what are they using this additional debt for, are they looking to expand internationally? Inventories are up, that's not great w/o a ton more stores - and I'm not seeing that.
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Aug 10, 2020 20:53
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Leperflesh posted:People in the US right now are locking in 30-year mortgages below 3% and that rate never expires. Holy smokes I didn't realise that. Wow.
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Aug 10, 2020 20:55
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Alctel posted:Holy smokes I didn't realise that. Wow. My lender told me if I had bought the day I got pre-approved my rate would be 2.5% on a 30 year
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Aug 10, 2020 23:21
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hmm. I plan on re-orienting to a more cautious portfolio after the D's and R's finally reach a stimulus deal. There's gotta be a bump on news of a deal. But if everyone else is thinking the same thing, maybe I should do it this week instead? 
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Aug 10, 2020 23:52
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Baddog posted:As long as their revenue keeps going up, they can keep on taking on more debt and its not an issue. for Home depot, check out page 36 for the statement of stockholder equity - They paid out more in dividends (6B in FY2019) and buybacks (7B) than came in (11B). https://ir.homedepot.com/~/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/2020/2019_THD_AnnualReport_vf.pdf Also this bit explaining a pretty big (11B) investment in the company - personally I haven't seen it in the actual stores or the website. I doubt supply chain sucked up much of that money. quote:"... in late 2017, we launched our transformational journey to create the One Home Depot experience, our vision of an interconnected, So its a bit disconcerting that they basically funded a good chunk of their buyback with an increase in long term debt. An argument could be made that its nice these big companies are getting loans at great rates (~3%), and giving that money to us! Lowes - https://corporate.lowes.com/sites/lowes-corp/files/annual-report/lowes-2019ar-final-1.pdf page 43, same thing as HD, more in buybacks and dividends than earnings. page 29 - capital expenditures (mostly store improvements at this point, not new stores) have been ramping up, from 1B in 2017 to 1.6B this year. They don't have a cool name for this program though. So mature companies, not looking to expand (I'm kind of surprised they seem so complacent about international opportunities), just retooling. Lowes actually closed quite a few stores last year to bump their margins. They are spinning off a lot of cash, and returning more than they have been making to shareholders. I think they are valued too high for this point in their lifecycle. Compare to my old company STX which has been doing the same thing, focused on margins and just being a cash machine - https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001137789/52ee0c1f-a7fa-4b1c-9277-e9e2e67ef437.pdf HD and LOW PE's are 26 , STX is 12. You can argue Seagate is valued much lower because everyone thinks SSD will kill hard drives, and HD and LOW will be around forever.... but Seagate is still going to sell a lot of hard drives over the next 10-20 years. poo poo, people still use tape. But I still think both Home Depot and Lowes are going to crush earnings, haha. Everyone has been doing home improvement projects. Expectations are sky high though...
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Aug 10, 2020 23:56
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pmchem posted:hmm. I plan on re-orienting to a more cautious portfolio after the D's and R's finally reach a stimulus deal. There's gotta be a bump on news of a deal. I get the feeling the donkeys and elephants are trying to squeeze as many potential political points out of all this as possible - which means delaying pulling the chute until you can practically count the blades of grass. That way both sides can shout about how they saved everything at the last possible second (as usual). That doesn't give me high hopes for a deal this week. If they all collectively gave a gently caress we wouldn't even be having this conversation. This poo poo would've been inked five months ago, we'd all have a stipend, and the government would send us quarantine care packages every two weeks. But hey, I heard the Air Force is getting some new jets.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:02
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Baddog posted:(words) great digging. AFAICT, both HD and LOW have suspended buybacks since 1Q: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/lowes-low-earnings-q1-2020.html https://www.morningstar.com/articles/986385/why-home-depot-should-be-on-your-watchlist it does seem like that buyback money was a total waste in terms of building business and solvency. but their FCF should improve 2Q as a result. If I can get a good entry, I may put some fun money in those stocks -- unsure if I'll sell before or after earnings, though, haha
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Aug 11, 2020 00:03
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-trump-capital-gains-idUSKCN2562PN heyyyy now we're talking
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Aug 11, 2020 00:17
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"We're...". Who is "we"? You going to poo poo out another toothless EO? Come on.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:19
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How does cutting capital gains make more jobs
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Aug 11, 2020 00:20
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It buys votes from people who are totally out of touch with what is going on. gently caress you; got mine.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:22
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drunken officeparty posted:How does cutting capital gains make more jobs It doesn't. They stopped trying to even pretend a while ago. Home depot (and Lowe's) intrigue me. I tried getting a same-day express delivery. They didn't show. HD support couldn't even get in touch with the store fulfilling the order. Same situation the next morning. Ended up cancelling.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:24
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Jesus Christ, finally a politician who cares about people making more than $80k and less than $300k a year Obviously I hope he gets COVID and dies, but if he helps middle class households make a Buck first that's totally cool
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Aug 11, 2020 00:25
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Jenkl posted:It doesn't. Donald is trying to pretend at least, but I don’t know what the pretend reasoning is: “We’re ... also considering a capital gains tax cut, which would create a lot more jobs,” Trump told reporters at the White House. I mean, somebody has to steer the yacht I guess.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:29
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Let’s see, cutting capital gains would.... prompt more stock sales? If I could end up paying less in capital gains that would be a cool exit point for some of my shakier investments.
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Aug 11, 2020 00:32
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If there's even a whiff of that in the future wouldn't a lot of foreign stockholders dump asap and wait for everything a big sell off to buy back in?
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Aug 11, 2020 00:45
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drunken officeparty posted:Donald is trying to pretend at least, but I don’t know what the pretend reasoning is: Can you even call it "pretending", though? It's really like watching a fifth grader give a presentation in front of the class on a book they've never read. "Where the Red Fern Grows is, uh, about this farm in, uh the woods and they grow ferns there but, uhm, they're red which is really different and good, and there's, uh, well the farmer, he uh, likes ferns...".
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Aug 11, 2020 00:51
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drunken officeparty posted:How does cutting capital gains make more jobs Someone has to physically hand deliver all that money don’tcha know? In all serious if he actually does that, I may just sell my big AAPL position and rebuy at the same price so I can save a couple grand when Biden inevitably reverses is or makes it higher than it is now.
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Aug 11, 2020 01:04
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Guys. The president of the united states of america has no power to cut taxes. None. Tax cuts are done by congress.
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Aug 11, 2020 01:14
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Yes, but! https://politics.theonion.com/trump-claims-he-can-overrule-constitution-with-executiv-1830106306
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Aug 11, 2020 01:17
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People keep on forgetting the legal doctrine of “who is going to stop me”.
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Aug 11, 2020 01:36
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The Legislative Pulpit
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Aug 11, 2020 01:37
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jokes posted:People keep on forgetting the legal doctrine of “who is going to stop me”. I'm trying to imagine congressional republicans willingly ceding congress's "power of the purse" three months before an election that is currently polling in favor of a democrat, but I'm failing. Perhaps my imagination just isn't good enough.
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Aug 11, 2020 01:47
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Leperflesh posted:three months before an election that is currently polling in favor of a democrat Well,
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Aug 11, 2020 01:59
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Leperflesh posted:I'm trying to imagine congressional republicans willingly ceding congress's "power of the purse" three months before an election that is currently polling in favor of a democrat, but I'm failing. Perhaps my imagination just isn't good enough. They've willingly ceded every other power, what's one more?
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Aug 11, 2020 02:12
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pmchem posted:great digging. AFAICT, both HD and LOW have suspended buybacks since 1Q: These trends are not short lived nor accidental, so the appropriate question is why the hell are they continuing? There's a bunch of ingredients in the cocktail to swallow: - Financing expansion with debt is no problem so long as you can service it and no external force (shareholders en masse) curtail your decision making process. Home improvement is not as prone to fashion swings as other retail: people's houses break with a lower bound, repairing is inelastic, and the population is growing. So, too, is the population of people needing to fix their poo poo. - The trends in devaluation have been occurring over most of the past decade without corresponding punishment on the share price. - Buybacks are a convenient way to get rid of unhappy shareholders. I don't think they have useful places to put that money. If there's a true competitive spirit here they might be each trying to turn a corner where they can eat the others' lunch, but I'm not buying that story. If you want me to guess anything, it's that they have no long term strategic goal and are each trying to spend their way to dominance in a series of poorly planned expenses that will not yield substantial material returns. I don't know how you look at those trends on book value and say "Yes, I want in on this ride." That's a lot of momentum to turn around, and bondholders get paid out before shareholders.
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Aug 11, 2020 02:32
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