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Lemniscate Blue posted:That's true in normal times, but the perception this year is that Republican voters are less likely to be worried about voting in person due to concerns about Coronavirus and social distancing (because their trusted sources told them it's no big deal), whereas Democratic voters are more likely to decide to vote by mail to avoid potential exposure (because they take the pandemic more seriously). Something like 97% of votes cast in Colorado are mail-in ballots, in my county, it was close to 99%. I'm curious what it does to overall numbers, the BLM protests seemed to indicate that people will show up in spite of the pandemic, so maybe that's something to be hopeful about. I wonder if Congress has any power to push back and save USPS? I wonder how bad mail service gets before UPS or DHL* steps up with a "plan" to "fix" our broken mail system? * You know it's gonna be DHL, just because they have the worst drivers and software for logistics.
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Aug 12, 2020 17:57
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bengy81 posted:You know it's gonna be DHL, just because they have the worst drivers and software for logistics. Lasership.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:28
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That Works posted:The destruction of USPS before November is probably gonna influence the election outcome more than polls, Kamala, debates, etc. Yeah, this is exactly what I'm afraid of. We're due for a rebound of covid in the fall due to kids going back to school. By November poo poo could be in full SHTF mode again with not enough ICU beds. I'm afraid that the second wave is going to be way more of a problem because of the amount or transmission going from kid to kid, to parents and grandparents. All while we have an election, all while the piece of poo poo in chief is dismantling the Post Office, when we need mail in ballots more than ever. How low is turnout going to be during a second wave? I'm so afraid of that.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:29
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Hoping the protests and primaries are evidence that dem voters are motivated enough to use a mask, social distancing and ensure their votes are counted. Using 2016 as a template for 2020 will create poor comparisons, there are a number of differences between public perception of Hillary and Biden and macro events. I am cautiously optimistic at the moment.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:34
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A)I guess now I know why I keep hearing takes from the olds about how the postal service is garbage. B)At this point I'll settle for anyone in office that will let the scientists and medical people take the lead on Covid and if I have to settle for Biden to get that then so be it.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:39
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I'm just curious what's gonna happen when 10s of millions of trump supports stop receiving their physical social security and disability checks.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:42
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Arven posted:I'm just curious what's gonna happen when 10s of millions of trump supports stop receiving their physical social security and disability checks. Them doing anything about it would require wresting themselves out of their recliners.
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Aug 12, 2020 18:45
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egyptian rat race posted:I saw a very good post yesterday that of course, I forgot to save. Basically it said that voting shouldn't be viewed as marriage, it should be viewed as public transit. Just because the bus doesn't get you all the way to your destination doesn't mean you shouldn't take the one that gets you closest to where you want to go. And it doesn't make sense to just get on the bus going the opposite direction. I got you, https://twitter.com/mhdksafa/status/1292218942648451073?s=19 There was also this that I appreciated, https://twitter.com/robdelaney/status/1293196281284878341 Naramyth posted:29% events happen all the time. It’s just the election is a single die roll instead of hundreds. 
Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 18:47
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Bored As gently caress posted:All while we have an election, all while the piece of poo poo in chief is dismantling the Post Office, when we need mail in ballots more than ever. The saving grace is that they're such transparent, evil morons about the whole thing. Around here, a week before the election, the state yelled at everyone to quit mailing ballots and vote in person, as we're a stupid state that only counts ballots received by election day. Of course, my mother ended up blowing that deadline in her city, so she just dropped it off at a conveniently-located drop box and the Secretary of State's website showed it as received a day later. My dad apparently hosed up and didn't sign his absentee ballot right, but it was like three weeks before the election so he had time to get the correction made. It's a lot like this: https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1293566929668628480?s=19 Which might actually mean something, but it's so loving obvious that they're doing evil horseshit that it's leading to this: https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1293592347066789888?s=19 And the best is that Kanye can't shut his yapper about abortion, so he could plausibly pull votes from Trump. Handsome Ralph posted:
poo poo, I was looking for that earlier. It changed my mind on some stuff - the description of activism only stopping in short periods of an election, then immediately continuing is basically why I think the hyperlibs should vote Biden, then immediately drive him left, primary the establishment, and find someone better for 2024. facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 18:47
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Doc Hawkins posted:An election is not an unknowable random event, it's deterministic, and unpredictable only due to limited information and time. The percentage numbers indicate the model's confidence in the outcome, based on measurements of things which in reality fully determine the result, and based on theories of how and to what degrees they determine it, making a tractable guess of what will happen possible. It is really funny to encounter the people who think that the 538 model implies that if elections were run over and over again the other candidate would win X% of the time. What do they think is happening to voters in that kind of world? Spontaneous neuron rewrites from the flap of a butterfly wing?
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Aug 12, 2020 19:01
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There's not going to be a second wave of COVID because we never got done with the first
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Aug 12, 2020 19:11
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Hot Karl Marx posted:november is gonna be a blast Possibly literally!
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Aug 12, 2020 19:13
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The Biden bus is taking me farther from where I want to be than where I am now (just not as far as the Trump bus). Since neither bus is actually helpful for me, it's probably better to start walking. e: also really cool how disapproval over Biden's stance on serious issues like healthcare is trivialized as "sulking" like it's a child being told they can't have a toy Fister Roboto fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 19:17
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Political volunteering helped me realize that I could give many more votes to the people i supported than just my own. Paradoxically it made me much less interested and invested in who people will vote for. If you're a "no," then I can move on to the next person. I don't talk much about who I support off the clock, because volunteering a few hours a week for a few months means my own vote, generously, less than five percent of the votes I have contributed to. However much you value voting for your choice, you should value prompting ten more people to vote that way ten times as much.
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Aug 12, 2020 19:25
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I was under the impression 538s forecast was almost spot on, did this change?
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Aug 12, 2020 19:39
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Fister Roboto posted:The Biden bus is taking me farther from where I want to be than where I am now (just not as far as the Trump bus). Since neither bus is actually helpful for me, it's probably better to start walking. So does this mean you're not gonna vote or are you gonna run for office?
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Aug 12, 2020 19:41
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lightpole posted:I was under the impression 538s forecast was almost spot on, did this change? Nope, but that hasn't stopped people for using them as a scapegoat for 2016.
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Aug 12, 2020 19:42
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not caring here posted:So does this mean you're not gonna vote or are you gonna run for office? It means that voting isn't the only way to get what you want.
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Aug 12, 2020 19:45
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Fister Roboto posted:It means that voting isn't the only way to get what you want.
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Aug 12, 2020 19:53
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Fister Roboto posted:It means that voting isn't the only way to get what you want. I mean that Chomsky piece literally addresses that , but if you just want to tell everyone who you are or aren't voting for anytime this comes up, go hog wild I guess.
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Aug 12, 2020 19:58
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How is not voting for Biden anything other than essentially supporting Trump? He's the only one that benefits as far as I can tell.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:01
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Mustang posted:How is not voting for Biden anything other than essentially supporting Trump? He's the only one that benefits as far as I can tell. No one knows. People are full of these hot takes lately. I agree that 3rd party options are needed, but we aren't there. I keep saying I am voting for the person LEAST likely to cause WW3.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:13
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Guess I'll throw my vote to Harambe again
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Aug 12, 2020 20:15
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Sasquatch/Mothman would like your vote.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:15
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Saxsquatch/Mothman would like your vote.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:16
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I'm just pointing out that it's a lovely analogy 
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Aug 12, 2020 20:27
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Mustang posted:How is not voting for Biden anything other than essentially supporting Trump? He's the only one that benefits as far as I can tell. Because it's supporting whoever you voted for, not Trump. A vote cast for X is not a vote cast for Y.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:29
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Surprising to see people who at one point had to adjust to a violent system having a difficult time understanding why people don't act against their best interests because they were told to.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:49
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bulletsponge13 posted:Because it's supporting whoever you voted for, not Trump. A vote cast for X is not a vote cast for Y. He didn't say not voting for Biden is a vote for Trump, he said not voting for Biden is support for Trump. That's unfortunately how the lovely reality in the US is. A vote cast for X benefits Y if X isn't the majority opponent of Y.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:52
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In NZ news, we have four probable cases to go with our 4 confirmed, and another confirmed at one of the largest high schools in the country, plus a couple of the confirmed cases travelled to another city for the weekend. We're back in the game, folks.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:56
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We have a thread for this slapfight
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Aug 12, 2020 20:57
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Duzzy Funlop posted:He didn't say not voting for Biden is a vote for Trump, he said not voting for Biden is support for Trump. The general feeling is that "gently caress you, I'm not going to pick between these two bowls of poo poo, I refuse to participate". That's reasonable, but unfortunately, you're getting a bowl of poo poo whether you participate or not. The social contract is a motherfucker. Comrade Blyatlov posted:In NZ news, we have four probable cases to go with our 4 confirmed, and another confirmed at one of the largest high schools in the country, plus a couple of the confirmed cases travelled to another city for the weekend. One thing I've been curious about - do y'all wear any kind of masks, at all? Everything I've seen about New Zealand always includes pictures of people not wearing masks, but a lot of that was during the zero-case time. Has there been a universal mask suggestion/rule/mandate in NZ?
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Aug 12, 2020 21:13
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It's now recommended to wear them but still not mandatory. After today I wouldn't be at all surprised if that changed though.
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Aug 12, 2020 21:15
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shame on an IGA posted:We have a thread for this slapfight
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Aug 12, 2020 21:17
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A lot of people feel that Biden is holding the Democratic party 'hostage' because "it's me or trump" and Biden doesn't represent their views but there's no one else to vote for.
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Aug 12, 2020 22:06
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Hot Karl Marx posted:A lot of people feel that Biden is holding the Democratic party 'hostage' because "it's me or trump" and Biden doesn't represent their views but there's no one else to vote for. I definitely feel this way, and picking Harris as his running mate seals it. I don't see anything that I want there, but the alternative is someone who is currently, actively taking away my right to life
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Aug 12, 2020 22:19
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Hot Karl Marx posted:A lot of people feel that Biden is holding the Democratic party 'hostage' because "it's me or trump" and Biden doesn't represent their views but there's no one else to vote for. That's exactly what's happening, but it won't bring me a great deal of comfort while I'm in the hospital dying of covid related heart failure that some people really felt the need to stand for their principals and not vote or vote for the green party or kanye or whatever, while Trump is in term 2 still screaming about hcq and appointing tucker carlson to head of the cdc. I mean I appreciate accelerationism as a concept but be upfront about it (not directed at you Hot Karl Marx) sharknado slashfic fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 22:32
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Here have some good news for once, https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1293659139412045824?s=20
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Aug 12, 2020 22:35
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That'll do. https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1293660954627059714 https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1293661663040868354 https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1293661785849987072
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Aug 12, 2020 22:38
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"The reason we report on these cures is because the democrats and by extension the mainstream media doesn't want you to know about them so they can shut the country down and make this president look bad." - sean hannity tonight.
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Aug 12, 2020 22:41
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