UKMT Summer 2020 - Two Pints of Saline and Abacavir for Drip

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Summer 2020 - Two Pints of Saline and Abacavir for Drip

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Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Marmaduke! posted:

Is it too much to ask that they y axis is labelled in all three charts, and that they're also big enough to see the full shapes of the curves (as the Vicar said to the milkman)

The last chart is a zoom of the prior chart

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:02

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# ? May 27, 2024 17:31

MikeCrotch: Nov 5, 2011; I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

School re-closures have already happened in countries that opened schools again like Israel so its not an academic question either

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:13

namesake: Jun 19, 2006; "When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

MikeCrotch posted:

School re-closures have already happened in countries that opened schools again like Israel so its not an academic question either

It is if they're all academies. :dadjoke:

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:19

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

peanut- posted:

gently caress, what is that from?

MRC GIDA modelling from the Imperial College Covid multi model study.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:26

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:

reduced capacity from 980 to 300

It's still a bad idea. But it stops Alastair Hamilton suing the arse off World Snooker, so they support it.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:28

goddamnedtwisto: Dec 31, 2004; If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you; Fun Shoe

Guavanaut posted:

It's okay, we're following the green line almost perfectly so everything's fine now for August and September.

Please do not look at the green line after October 1st.

e: ^^

So what (if anything) are we to make of the (apparent, because obviously there always has to be a massive disclaimer) situation in the States where despite a massive surge in reported cases hospitalisations and deaths are - while ticking up - aren't tracking with this? There's a lot of graphs running around purple-face Twitter purporting to show this and TBH I'd expect at least once southern city to be showing New York levels of deaths by now, but apparently not.

Now the Very Intelligent Toby Young followers are claiming various things, from handwaving about some alleged partial immunity based on other coronaviruses to "See, we're at herd immunity already!" and of course the inevitable claims it was all a hoax anyway, but *something* is definitely going on:

(via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

Now I don't discount the possibility of massive number-massaging going on, but similar things seem to be happening in France and the Netherlands which have been in their second waves for over a month now with no real spike in deaths.

So... what's happening? I remember people talking at the beginning of the uptick of deaths, particularly of NHS workers, of the possibility of the initial viral load being important - if you get exposed to a lot of virus at once you're more likely to have more serious disease. With social distancing and masking presumably lowering the quantity of virus you get hit with, does this fit?

The other thing I read from one of the purple-face crew makes a sort of sense - the virus is less happy in warmer weather, so a lot of people are being exposed to weakened or dead versions of it, enough to show up in a test but not enough to cause disease, or even to cause a sort of natural vaccination. However this just seems like a restatement of the "there's millions of asymptomatic cases and we're already at herd immunity" mantra that was their fervent dream throughout the first spike.

Of course there could be a perfectly reasonable explanation for all this that I've just missed, but it just doesn't seem to be something being talked about outside the sort of people who think wearing a mask is a crime against humanity on par with the Holocaust.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:30

namesake: Jun 19, 2006; "When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

First wave is unknown and pretty uncontrolled so it gets into the vulnerable and kills a lot of them because the best methods of saving them aren't known, later peaks affect more of the healthier population and there are better methods available until the whole healthcare system collapsed under the strain, would be my expectation. Potentially many of those infected will still die but it takes longer to reach that point as well because they're healthier to begin with.

Don't start drawing any conclusions about the impact of a peak unless it's already over or you're at the centre of the data gathering.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:36

Marmaduke!: May 19, 2009; Why would it do that!?

Failed Imagineer posted:

The last chart is a zoom of the prior chart

Ah, thanks. Impressive how much bigger the tiny bumps become in the seemingly flat line. Also they need to be careful, taken out of context the pair of charts could be interpreted as saying closing schools causes the second much worse spike!

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:39

Lungboy: Aug 23, 2002; NEED SQUAT FORM HELP

Cerv posted:

we can only hope that Ofqual are already planning for next years' exams to be on the basis of nobody having completed the curriculum and to varying extents.

I think Ofqual has showed us all just how competent they are in the last couple of days.

On the Covid question, the average age of newly infected people has dropped massively, which could be why so many less are ending up in hospital.

Lungboy fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Aug 16, 2020

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:40

Z the IVth: Jan 28, 2009; The trouble with your "expendable machines"; Fun Shoe

Bobby Deluxe posted:

"Because of the extenuating circumstances we have accepted Virgin Health's kind offer to prop up the NHS. Oh no, my pen slipped and I appear to have accidentally given them a five year contract."

*five years time*

"Looks like they've entrenched themselves in the health system, such a shame nobody could have seen this coming. Anyway, I'm stepping down to gracefully accept this position as executive consultant at Virgin Health."

Nah, why get stuck in the system treating deeply unprofitable geriatrics patients and A&E attendances when you can waltz in, cream off x% of the budget over 3 years for the shareholders then bail out citing "financial irregularities" because you can't square a budget for "operating costs" with "operating costs+shareholder dividends"

# ? Aug 16, 2020 20:44

Comrade Fakename: Feb 13, 2012

https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1294605396481585152

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:02

Jel Shaker: Apr 19, 2003

goddamnedtwisto posted:

So what (if anything) are we to make of the (apparent, because obviously there always has to be a massive disclaimer) situation in the States where despite a massive surge in reported cases hospitalisations and deaths are - while ticking up - aren't tracking with this? There's a lot of graphs running around purple-face Twitter purporting to show this and TBH I'd expect at least once southern city to be showing New York levels of deaths by now, but apparently not.

Now the Very Intelligent Toby Young followers are claiming various things, from handwaving about some alleged partial immunity based on other coronaviruses to "See, we're at herd immunity already!" and of course the inevitable claims it was all a hoax anyway, but *something* is definitely going on:

(via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

Now I don't discount the possibility of massive number-massaging going on, but similar things seem to be happening in France and the Netherlands which have been in their second waves for over a month now with no real spike in deaths.

So... what's happening? I remember people talking at the beginning of the uptick of deaths, particularly of NHS workers, of the possibility of the initial viral load being important - if you get exposed to a lot of virus at once you're more likely to have more serious disease. With social distancing and masking presumably lowering the quantity of virus you get hit with, does this fit?

The other thing I read from one of the purple-face crew makes a sort of sense - the virus is less happy in warmer weather, so a lot of people are being exposed to weakened or dead versions of it, enough to show up in a test but not enough to cause disease, or even to cause a sort of natural vaccination. However this just seems like a restatement of the "there's millions of asymptomatic cases and we're already at herd immunity" mantra that was their fervent dream throughout the first spike.

Of course there could be a perfectly reasonable explanation for all this that I've just missed, but it just doesn't seem to be something being talked about outside the sort of people who think wearing a mask is a crime against humanity on par with the Holocaust.

Ironically trumps �we�ve got more cases because we�re doing more testing� might be a factor (but not in the way he thinks lol) Hypothetically imagine that the covid test is 99% sensitive, if you test 1000 people 10 will incorrectly test positive. Of course some will be true positives, and also there will be false negatives , but the �testing� itself might not give a 100% accurate picture of what�s going on, which is why hospital admissions and death rates are more comparable and helpful

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:05

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Comrade Fakename posted:

https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1294605396481585152

Literally just

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:07

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

It's not all bots.

Sometimes its trots.

Or trot bots.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:09

Bobstar: Feb 8, 2006; KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

The good thing is, you can tell the bots by the numbers in their Twitter handle

(ducks as Twisto throws blender)

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:11

justcola: May 22, 2004; La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo

As everywhere seems busier than before lockdown I wonder why the numbers haven't shot up yet, though I'm guessing the heat and light helps kill the virus? Luckily we live in one of those countries that is hot and dry all year round, especially with a new batch of students moving to colleges and universities. Fresher's flu is just a hangover and a dollop of gonorrhea, it will all be fine!

Only 18 weeks til Christmas too

e: why post on Twitter if you think all responses are going to be from bots? social media as a single player campaign

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:12

Trin Tragula: Apr 22, 2005

thespaceinvader posted:

It's not all bots.

Sometimes its trots.

Or trot bots.

Thanks, Trots.

Thots.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:15

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

justcola posted:

why post on Twitter ~~if you think all responses are going to be from bots? social media as a single player campaign~~

why indeed

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:16

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Thanks, thots.

Hnnnnnnnngh

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:16

kingturnip: Apr 18, 2008

Would it be nice to be so utterly insulated within your social bubble of upper-middle-class Durham alumni Tory voters that you think no-one other than a blind butcher's hand's worth of Labour people are socialists online?

Or would it just be exhausting, constantly battling your cognitive dissonance to try to justify why you and your upper-middle-class Durham alumni Tory voter friends are the only people being genuine online?

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:17

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

goddamnedtwisto posted:

So what (if anything) are we to make of the (apparent, because obviously there always has to be a massive disclaimer) situation in the States where despite a massive surge in reported cases hospitalisations and deaths are - while ticking up - aren't tracking with this? There's a lot of graphs running around purple-face Twitter purporting to show this and TBH I'd expect at least once southern city to be showing New York levels of deaths by now, but apparently not.

Now the Very Intelligent Toby Young followers are claiming various things, from handwaving about some alleged partial immunity based on other coronaviruses to "See, we're at herd immunity already!" and of course the inevitable claims it was all a hoax anyway, but *something* is definitely going on:

(via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

The US appears to be tracking the orange line with their more creative "50 different lockdowns and some states saying masks are illegal" strategy. We'll see come winter. :ohdear:

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Now I don't discount the possibility of massive number-massaging going on, but similar things seem to be happening in France and the Netherlands which have been in their second waves for over a month now with no real spike in deaths.

Excess deaths is the only thing I care about (tontyblair voice), you're right that nowhere has seen an uptick of excess deaths either, but it's a lot harder to massage that than Covid deaths. It does appear that there's a lowered mortality rate from either the disease being different or from different people being infected though.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

So... what's happening? I remember people talking at the beginning of the uptick of deaths, particularly of NHS workers, of the possibility of the initial viral load being important - if you get exposed to a lot of virus at once you're more likely to have more serious disease. With social distancing and masking presumably lowering the quantity of virus you get hit with, does this fit?

The other thing I read from one of the purple-face crew makes a sort of sense - the virus is less happy in warmer weather, so a lot of people are being exposed to weakened or dead versions of it, enough to show up in a test but not enough to cause disease, or even to cause a sort of natural vaccination. However this just seems like a restatement of the "there's millions of asymptomatic cases and we're already at herd immunity" mantra that was their fervent dream throughout the first spike.

It's possible and interesting if true that summer and social distancing is causing people to naturally variolate. I think that winter peak is because it would take about 20 years for the entire UK population to be variolated in that way, so winter virus is going to come back with a vengeance first.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:20

Vitamin P: Nov 19, 2013; Truth is game rigging is more difficult than it looks pls stay ded

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

I know despair is unproductive but I don't know how anyone gets up in the morning with the false hope that things will ever get better in this country. The tories have free reign to do whatever they want for the next four years with Labour backing them every step of the way, and I guarantee next election they'll gently caress it and the Tories will win again. What's the loving point.

F. Scott Fitzgerald posted:

The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.

One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise.

If you're genuinely feeling despair and have very little ability to change the politics causing you that despair then for now just treat the despair. Take care of your mental and physical health, make sure you have companionship, use mental health services, do local volunteering etc do whatever it takes to keep yourself ticking and not fully given up. It won't be too long until some more stupid poo poo happens and we're back in the game anyway, even if you don't feel able to do extra-electoral stuff just keeping yourself around until the next accessible moment arrives is a good goal.

Lady Demelza posted:

Call me paranoid but Starmer is acting like he's hoping for the worst case scenarios because it might drive people to vote Labour in the next election beause they're not Tories. He doen't need to make good on any promises or be an effective opposition. Left wing Labour voters will vote for Labour because they're the least fascist party on the ballot paper, right wing Labour voters will vote for them because there's no threat to the status quo, and the LibDem/Tory floating voters will vote for them because they're a palatable protest vote. And as a strategy it might work!

Yeah the whole plan of Starmers Labour, whoever the post-Starmer leader is too, is to genuflect to established interests enough to very obviously never be a threat to them, then hope that tory gently caress-ups and being slightly more socially progressive will get them over the line. I think it'll probably work in that Starmer will probably win the next election but he won't actually help anything sooo

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:51

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Trin Tragula posted:

Thanks, Trots.

Thots.

I try to post on twitter but I am a dummy trot and the clap of my fingers on the keys keeps alerting the liberals.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 21:56

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

justcola posted:

Only 18 weeks til Christmas too

This year's must have toy, bronchial stents!

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:02

jaete: Jun 21, 2009; Nap Ghost

Comrade Fakename posted:

https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1294605396481585152

You know why this oval office thinks Corbyn supporters are all sock puppets? Because to him, it's the obvious thing to do. Of course if you're a party leader you'll get the PR department to organise a whole bunch of astroturf bullshit everywhere, who wouldn't, it's just common sense!

And, maybe you have already seen what so many of the Conservative party supporters on Twitter are like. They're sock puppets

It's amazing how much of right-wing thought on literally any subject is easily explained as projection

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:07

Z the IVth: Jan 28, 2009; The trouble with your "expendable machines"; Fun Shoe

happyhippy posted:

This year's must have toy, bronchial stents!

Low Molecular Weight Heparin Autoinjectors!

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:14

big scary monsters: Sep 2, 2011; -~Ｓｋｕｌｌｗａｖｅ~-

Bobstar posted:

The good thing is, you can tell the bots by the numbers in their Twitter handle

(ducks as Twisto throws blender)

Twitter has this handy feature where they display the universally recognised symbol for non-sentient artificial intelligence, the blue tick, next to the names of bot accounts.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:25

Pantsmaster Bill: May 7, 2007

jaete posted:

You know why this oval office thinks Corbyn supporters are all sock puppets? Because to him, it's the obvious thing to do. Of course if you're a party leader you'll get the PR department to organise a whole bunch of astroturf bullshit everywhere, who wouldn't, it's just common sense!

And, maybe you have already seen what so many of the Conservative party supporters on Twitter are like. They're sock puppets

It's amazing how much of right-wing thought on literally any subject is easily explained as projection

This is my theory behind the MoS �Corbyn allies infected Boris� headline. They think it happened because it�s what they would have done.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:46

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Going back to

Cerv posted:

residential gas phased out by 2030 if you believe that'll happen.
but more for environmental reasons than the small number of accidents that occur.

chat, apparently the new offshore wind farms might be making electricity cheaper in a couple of years time, meaning that

Guavanaut posted:

it was getting to the point where a heat pump was cheaper to run than a condensing boiler. Then they knocked a few pennies off gas and put it on electric.

might hopefully reverse in the near future. :toot:

# ? Aug 16, 2020 22:47

Camrath: Mar 19, 2004; The UKMT Fudge Baron

Fudge orders for early September close in one hour!

If you don�t want to miss out, drop me a pm or email ASAP!

# ? Aug 16, 2020 23:00

CoolCab: Apr 17, 2005; glem

in summer we have a number of natural advantages against Coronavirus and indeed many airborne resperatory disorders:

- UV light and abundant heat both make transmission much more difficult. surfaces are being disinfected without human intervention
- with abundant sunshine vitamin d defiency rates fall. said defiency is hugely correlated to poorer outcomes and more suceptibility to resperatory disorders
- people are socializing and congregating outdoors in wide open spaces instead of indoor activities more popular in colder months

any and all of these play their roles as to why the winter months are the "cold and flu" season. if this is the case with covid-19 then the second wave is going to hit like a loving truck.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 23:36

Trickjaw: Jun 23, 2005; Nadie puede dar lo que no tiene

Quick question for those on happy pills: Has anyone any experience of taking Mirtazapine 15mg? Most anti depressants I've taken before either turn me insomniac or do nowt. I'm pretty allergic to Citalopram too.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 23:36

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

I'm coming off mirtazapine now because it gave me really hosed up dreams - not nightmares really, but they're extremely vivid and quite often leave me feeling like absolute poo poo in the morning

though I'm now finding it a lot harder to get to sleep/stay asleep which is not very much better

and it's very good at causing increased appetite and weight gain

# ? Aug 16, 2020 23:46

Camrath: Mar 19, 2004; The UKMT Fudge Baron

Trickjaw posted:

Quick question for those on happy pills: Has anyone any experience of taking Mirtazapine 15mg? Most anti depressants I've taken before either turn me insomniac or do nowt. I'm pretty allergic to Citalopram too.

Didn�t work for me, and made me put on like 3 stone.

# ? Aug 16, 2020 23:51

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

Z the IVth posted:

Low Molecular Weight Heparin Autoinjectors!

From Hasbro!

# ? Aug 17, 2020 00:02

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Late to both celebrity and MP you've met chat and I know Stephen Byers because he's a friend of my parents through his wife lol

# ? Aug 17, 2020 00:22

Smiling Demon: Jun 16, 2013

Trickjaw posted:

Quick question for those on happy pills: Has anyone any experience of taking Mirtazapine 15mg? Most anti depressants I've taken before either turn me insomniac or do nowt. I'm pretty allergic to Citalopram too.

Mirtazapine is perhaps one of the most notorious drugs in existence for weight gain, so be aware of that. It is also highly sedating, though if you have sleep disorders this can be beneficial. On the plus side it is pretty effective if the sedation doesn't overpower all other concerns.

# ? Aug 17, 2020 00:33

Disgusting Coward: Feb 17, 2014

Trickjaw posted:

Quick question for those on happy pills: Has anyone any experience of taking Mirtazapine 15mg? Most anti depressants I've taken before either turn me insomniac or do nowt. I'm pretty allergic to Citalopram too.

I was on them for a while. I found they worked really well, having bounced off of sertraline and fluoxetine prior to being prescribed them. Initially got huge drowsiness and huge cravings for high-sugar garbage food, but that passed after a month of sticking with them. They're not miracle happy makers by any means, but I was prone to obsessive morbid and self destructive thoughts, along with wild wild mood swings, and they turned all that nonsense right down and put enough of a floor under me that I was able to get my poo poo together. Been nearly a year since my last dose, and I've been keeping my poo poo together perfectly well with just diet, exercise and the occasional shrink sesh. 8/10 would recommend.

Would recommend making sure you've got a couple of days off before you take your first dose, cause some folks get banjaxed hard and end up ugly sleeping for 18 hours. And maybe stock up on nasal spray, lotsa folks get stuffiness.

# ? Aug 17, 2020 01:00

ToxicAcne: May 25, 2014

Hey sorry, random Canadian here. I've asked before on the CanPol thread about why our version of Labour(the NDP) never supplanted the Liberals, so I wanted to ask the other side; How did Labour supplant the Liberals in the UK?

# ? Aug 17, 2020 03:02

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# ? May 27, 2024 17:31

WhatEvil: Jun 6, 2004; Can't get no luck.

ToxicAcne posted:

Hey sorry, random Canadian here. I've asked before on the CanPol thread about why our version of Labour(the NDP) never supplanted the Liberals, so I wanted to ask the other side; How did Labour supplant the Liberals in the UK?

Well as I understand it, Labour "supplanting" the Liberals happened about a hundred years ago, and I'm not sure the conditions it happened under are particularly relevant to what's going on today, given that back then the UK was not a full democracy, since only property owners could vote.

Also, the Labour party has never truly supplanted the liberals, since you couldn't describe the Labour party during their last period of government (1997-2010) as anything other than massive neoliberals.

More recently (2015-2019) the actual left were in charge of the party, but got massively sabotaged by liberal factions who couldn't bear to see a socialist Labour government.

Basically, it's a shitshow, and I wouldn't go looking to what happened in the UK as a guide to how to go about boosting the NDP.

As I understand it, the NDP have tried to shift to the centre recently too, no?

# ? Aug 17, 2020 05:18

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Summer 2020 - Two Pints of Saline and Abacavir for Drip

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