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Why would Putin murder Navalny at all? He isn't controlled opposition exactly, but still useful 'theater opposition'. Making a martyr out of him seems counter productive
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Aug 20, 2020 15:29
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This poo poo always comes up after each time someone is murdered or poisoned "but what's in it for Putin??" time and time again It's a brutal security apparatus that hasn't seen any consequences for their actions. There is no reason the Chechens would kill Nemtsov right next to the Kremlin if they had any doubt that the killings would make Putin look bad and he would be mad and take any punitive action. In case you need reminding, after a few days Putin publicly gave Kadyrov a medal and the investigation to the murder was put a stop to. That he might not have personally ordered him poisoned is immaterial, he will know who did it and protect that person and this will continue.
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Aug 20, 2020 17:18
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Vladimir Putin is nothing but a tragic figure followed by inexplainable death. People and countries standing in his way inevitably end up being assassinated or invaded, and he just can't figure out why. All he ever wanted was to arrange big international sports events 
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Aug 20, 2020 17:34
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GABA ghoul posted:Why would Putin murder Navalny at all? He isn't controlled opposition exactly, but still useful 'theater opposition'. Making a martyr out of him seems counter productive
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Aug 20, 2020 17:40
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GABA ghoul posted:Why would Putin murder Navalny at all? He isn't controlled opposition exactly, but still useful 'theater opposition'. Making a martyr out of him seems counter productive Very much maybe on the theatre opposition part. Both the traditional managed opposition and un-managed opposition have been gaining ground: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/08/03/russia-s-electoral-testing-ground as well as the situation with the LDPR in Khabarovsk are indicative. Support for United Russia has been flagging for quite some time, and while that's not necessarily connected directly to support for Putin (quite ironically, given that "support Putin" is the main tenet of United Russia's platform), the party is important for the current system of indirectly controlling politics in the regions. Loss of local control is a significant challenge and concern for the federal government (the "hey, don't look at me, look at the changes to the presidency!" constitutional change to remove whatever shred of municipal independence remained didn't come out of nowhere), and trying to gain ground that way has been an important part of Navalny's organization's strategy: https://theconversation.com/moscows-municipal-elections-illustrate-the-growing-political-crisis-in-russia-123262 Murdering Navalny does seem a really strange move even in light of that, but as Somaen noted, gently caress knows who in the silovki/kadyrovtsy/whoever else mess actually did that, why, and with what approval (or lack thereof).
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Aug 20, 2020 17:50
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GABA ghoul posted:Why would Putin murder Navalny at all? He isn't controlled opposition exactly, but still useful 'theater opposition'. Making a martyr out of him seems counter productive To terrorize people by reminding them that he can get away wit literally anything, no matter how brazen and hamfisted.
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Aug 20, 2020 17:56
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That sounds sadly familiar
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Aug 20, 2020 19:40
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A quick Putin quote from Skripals poisoning. “Traitors will kick the bucket, believe me. Those other folks betrayed their friends, their brother in arms,” Mr Putin said. “Whatever they got in exchange for it, those 30 pieces of silver they were given, they will choke on them.” While this isn't directly explaining the reason for navalnys poisoning, it's a frame of reference for the way that Putin thinks in terms of how he deals with opposition. Funny enough tea poisoning is just one piece of Russia's assassination arsenal. They could have easily thrown him out of a window or killed him with sodium fluoroacetate. They wanted to either cripple him or cause him a long death that all of his friends family and loyal followers to see what happens when you gently caress with Putin. Putin basically used the tambov gang to do his low level hits. And the FSB to do high level hits. Has been this way for 20+ years now. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Aug 20, 2020 |
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Aug 20, 2020 21:05
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Aumanor posted:"Zaliczka" is the closest equivalent I can think of, but it's not 1:1. It's just not a widely (or even at all) practiced method of payment in Poland. well gently caress I mean I suppose it still couldn’t hurt to ask if they can do it, right?  GABA ghoul posted:Maybe try paying with paypal? IRC they have an option to settle the payment with a couple months delay(which is basically a short term loan). Gonna look into this too. I’m not sure if Paypal is one of their accepted methods of payment, but I can check.
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Aug 21, 2020 03:32
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Well looks like the whole Belarus thing just suddenly fizzled out on tuesday when nationwide strikes just didn't happen. Only Soligorsk miners tried it for a day.
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Aug 21, 2020 10:01
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1296740503279599616Sekenr posted:Well looks like the whole Belarus thing just suddenly fizzled out on tuesday when nationwide strikes just didn't happen. Only Soligorsk miners tried it for a day. People are afraid of losing their jobs?
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Aug 21, 2020 13:23
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I. M. Gei posted:I mean I suppose it still couldn’t hurt to ask if they can do it, right? So just to be clear 'zaliczka' means down payment, and it's not uncommon in arrangements like renting a holiday house for example. Is this between individuals or with a company? In general it should be possible to negotiate.
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Aug 21, 2020 13:54
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I think it would be more common in Poland to pay 5-20% down payment and then the rest at an agreed date. But I did buy one stupid poo poo once in a matter you described. I've paid through bank transfers to personal account and always put correct transaction description.
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Aug 21, 2020 14:09
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I think he was randomly picked to test Putin's new COVID vaccine. Congrats!
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Aug 21, 2020 15:21
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I. M. Gei posted:Yyyyyyyeeeeeeaaah, pretty much. This thing I’m trying to buy is gonna run me a little over $2800, and I’ve only got a few hundred in my checking account right now. I have a job that pays more than enough for me to make monthly payments of like $600 or more. I just don’t have the full amount of money at this exact moment, and my credit rating is abject dogshit so I was hoping to avoid anything that’d involve a credit check. Please do not use the forums to plan the purchase of nuclear weapons.
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Aug 21, 2020 15:37
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Watching Navalny Live now. A German medical transport team landed this morning, they were able to examine Alexey and clear him for transport. Their plane is ready and waiting. A hospital is chock full of unidentified personnel, they've taken over entrances, offices and phones. There are checkpoints in the hallways. His wife and her entourage were forcefully removed from premises. All of this on video. Vladimir Milov speculates that Navalny is being denied transport partly so the chemical substances in his blood would not be identified. No press or relatives have access to his room at the moment.
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Aug 21, 2020 15:47
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Discendo Vox posted:Please do not use the forums to plan the purchase of nuclear weapons. It is Red mercury. Purchased from Polish prince, who need to help it move out of the country.
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Aug 21, 2020 15:54
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There is a government helicopter with a huge red-green state flag flying circles around my housing block. Luka's aeromobile propaganda unit.
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Aug 21, 2020 16:35
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1296740503279599616 Yeah, also they apply all sorts of pressure and coersion to stop this stuff from happening in the future, with varying levels of success. Soligorsk miners who were the most determined to the point of going into the mines and do nothing all day now have KGB on them and strike commitee members started to dissapear. One of the dissapeared, hilariously, apparently escaped KGB office through toilet window and resurfaced in Ukraine. MAZ management seems to have botched their repression plan, they decided to fire some workers to make an example. The only flaw in this plan is that it wasn't unheard of for MAZ workers to quit even before the elections for non poilitical reasons, such as low pay and work being lovely. So a bunch more quit too and others taken unpaid leaves for family reasons. There are reports that there are not enough people for certain operations and trucks leave the assembly line in unfinished state. Vadim Devyatovskiy, the head of Athletics federation used to be extremely frothing at the mouth pro Lukashenko, suddenly posted on facebook denouncing him. He got contacted by the media to ask if he was hacked, gave barely coherent statements confirming that he was the author of this post. Eventually government TV said that he suffered a nervous breakdown and was pressured by someone to post it. Sekenr fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Aug 21, 2020 |
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Aug 21, 2020 19:36
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quote:Russia will allow the gravely ill Navalny to be airlifted to Germany, after his wife sent a letter to the Kremlin directly appealing for it to intervene.
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Aug 21, 2020 19:48
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What type of poison would do something like this? Neurotoxin?
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Aug 21, 2020 19:49
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Going into the weekend Belarus is blocking media's internet presences: https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1296923841046941697 Dunno what that's really supposed to achieve; are there many people that wouldn't just get the same messaging through Telegram channels or osmosis through friends and acquaintances that do at this point? I figure Lukashenko's traditional base is more likely to watch TV news or media websites, but isn't wholly disconnected from people who get news via other sources. Strike stuff I'm not seeing a whole of consistent reporting on, but it looks like the authorities have started trying to identify leaders at individual enterprises and are detaining them to try and decapitate those movements, e.g. https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1296498750970527744
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Aug 21, 2020 23:41
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What Tikhanovskaya should have done and can still do is declare herself elected president and issue some sort of order to the government. Like order Karayev to resign or something like that. It is symbolic gesture but will give the military types who are not happy with how things are going a formal cop out without shattering their dutyful soldier self image.
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Aug 22, 2020 11:30
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https://twitter.com/simonostrovsky/status/1297095848111808512?s=21
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Aug 22, 2020 18:07
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Maybe this is a secondary concern at this moment, but I'm seeing very few masks in the protest footage
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Aug 22, 2020 18:08
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Nobody in Minsk wears masks.
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Aug 22, 2020 18:17
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Rinkles posted:Maybe this is a secondary concern at this moment, but I'm seeing very few masks in the protest footage We have plenty of evidence from around the world that outdoor protest marches don't actually do much to COVID-19 numbers. It's indoor gatherings that are the biggest drivers.
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Aug 22, 2020 18:49
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I've read an interview with a MAZ strike leader, it was pretty amusing about insider situation on the plant. Their industrial action was put down by the management because it wasn't done according to the proper procedure and thus illegal, I don't know if in other countries the right to strike is properly put down on paper but in ours it is. If you ask me it is complete bullshit because the cops ignored the law and the workers should have just went with it but they want to do it properly. The funny thing is that article of the labour codex is basically a relic of the soviet codex and was never invoked in independant Belarus ever. The dude is a metalworker and his comrades are workers too, they are not lawyers, but they got legal aid from the coordination council. They got the management to confirm that they were officially warned of impending strike. The amusing thing about it was that once the management got all legal, workers got all legal too. This machine is not electrically grounded according to regulation, fix it and then I will work it. There is a roof leak over there, fix it and than I will work. There are hundreds of all sorts of failures everywhere that went ignored for years and will take weeks to fix. Lukashenko I think tries to outplay them by shutting down all the striking industries on monday. This piece of news is odd because I've only seen it on RT and other Russian news sites but not on any Belarusian or anything official. Impressive move if true but also stupid, will hardly win him any popularity, official narrative is that external powers (who by now include nearly the entire world) have brainwashed good Belarusians through mysterious powers of internet to destroy our country. When he himself starts destroying the country out of spite, the story will appear even less convincing then before. Overall I'd say the general feeling is that even though open street actions went next to nil, the partisan tradition kicked in and everybody is determined to poo poo on his parade whenever the opportunity presents itself. The whole regime might slide apart like a crappily built wedding cake. In other news Viber evacuated their computer touchers to Kiev. What concerns other potential strikers - MAZ and others Minsk based industries are more symbolic. The real money makers are Soligorsk who were real bros but are also under the hardest pressure, what concerns them is everything depends on their resolve. Because KGB or OMON are not going down into the mines, what goes on in there and what is right way to work only they know. Other money makers are oil refinery Naftan and chemical plant Grodnoazot. They are way more complicated, they are both 24-hour nonstop chemical process which cannot be stopped overnight otherwise its a literal ecological disaster and Grodnoazot even probably explosions. Their processes take weeks to shut down properly, so - who knows. Grodnoazot woman seemed pretty determined, but 2 weeks is a lot of time when things change sometimes every hour. Also, Grodno is the only city who got their executive council to accept every single condition that could be done on local level. They agreed to everything. The right to protest on main square with no harassment, no OMON in the city, time on local TV to speak whatever they want. This got overturned the next day by Lukashenko personally who went down there, but still. Sekenr fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Aug 22, 2020 |
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Aug 22, 2020 19:59
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Sekenr posted:What Tikhanovskaya should have done and can still do is declare herself elected president and issue some sort of order to the government. Like order Karayev to resign or something like that. It is symbolic gesture but will give the military types who are not happy with how things are going a formal cop out without shattering their dutyful soldier self image. Uh, maybe not. At this stage that would only reinforce the government's message that this is coup attempt led from a NATO country, which would give the army all justification to lock and load. And how could she even call herself the elected president when the whole election was fraudulent to begin with? Better go with completely delegitimizing the election and requiring the administration to resign before a new, lawful election.
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Aug 22, 2020 20:18
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Sekenr posted:I've read an interview with a MAZ strike leader, it was pretty amusing about insider situation on the plant. Their industrial action was put down by the management because it wasn't done according to the proper procedure and thus illegal, I don't know if in other countries the right to strike is properly put down on paper but in ours it is. Striking is part of legislation just about everywhere in Europe (and it has been for like over 100 years), it's generally considered a basic workers' right but there are also limitations depending on legislature. Like you have to announce it X days beforehand or the employer has the right to terminate the contract, also scabs are protected by law so unions can't completely close a factory but picketers can at least show them some evil eye at the gate. Political strikes can also be treated differently than strikes intended at improving wages and work conditions, for example.
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Aug 22, 2020 20:32
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Nenonen posted:Uh, maybe not. At this stage that would only reinforce the government's message that this is coup attempt led from a NATO country, which would give the army all justification to lock and load. And how could she even call herself the elected president when the whole election was fraudulent to begin with? Better go with completely delegitimizing the election and requiring the administration to resign before a new, lawful election. The minister of defense speech before the officer corps got leaked and his position is pretty scary, which is civil war is a real possibility, we do not want to fight non-combatants nevertheless it might become our duty. I don't think this whole conspiracy talk will influence military people who already thinks that the entire idea sucks and seek an exit. Basically if you are currently in any kind of military-type organization you have 2 options, either obey all orders or jail and dishonor. I know that there is non-zero quantity of people who will prefer jail and dishonor to performing executions but her orders will make it a little easier, at least you can pretend before yourself or family that you followed Tikhanovskaya the legitimate president. Finally, their largest fear is not just to stain their uniforms with civilian blood (which is serious) but to be a scapegoat and end up that only they got stained while some other branch or units come clean and shining with glittering medals by doing nothing at the right moment. This move could saw serious discord.
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Aug 22, 2020 20:40
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Sekenr posted:The minister of defense speech before the officer corps got leaked and his position is pretty scary, which is civil war is a real possibility, we do not want to fight non-combatants nevertheless it might become our duty. I don't think this whole conspiracy talk will influence military people who already thinks that the entire idea sucks and seek an exit. Basically if you are currently in any kind of military-type organization you have 2 options, either obey all orders or jail and dishonor. I know that there is non-zero quantity of people who will prefer jail and dishonor to performing executions but her orders will make it a little easier, at least you can pretend before yourself or family that you followed Tikhanovskaya the legitimate president. Finally, their largest fear is not just to stain their uniforms with civilian blood (which is serious) but to be a scapegoat and end up that only they got stained while some other branch or units come clean and shining with glittering medals by doing nothing at the right moment. This move could saw serious discord. I don't think I agree with you. Some strange lady giving orders from across the border has very little influence on the military. Senior officers? They are too dependent on the system to rise against the system unless everything starts falling apart. If they do switch sides, it's because they want to install their own candidate to lead the show because they can. Junior officers? They have less to lose, but are still years indoctrinated to defend the prevailing system, so it's a hard sell. They eventually might get to it, but historically it has taken years to develop such a conspiracy to fruition a la Carnation Revolution (and then the conditions have been dire). Conscripts? They have very limited access to social media, but if they do, they potentially could be swayed by their families telling them that the winds have changed. But I'm pessimistic about the chances of a military revolt starting from the privates because it just doesn't happen. Armies are organized the way they are for a reason, to control individuals from the top to the bottom and to restrict influence from peers and from the outside. Anything could happen of course, but right now the best thing would be if the army just decided that there was no reason to interfere, and in this regard the opposition seems to be making wise choices. If people die, it's all on Lukashenka.
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Aug 22, 2020 21:53
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Sekenr posted:What Tikhanovskaya should have done and can still do is declare herself elected president and issue some sort of order to the government. Like order Karayev to resign or something like that. It is symbolic gesture but will give the military types who are not happy with how things are going a formal cop out without shattering their dutyful soldier self image. Isn't her husband still in Belarus custody? Probably wouldn't be healthy for him.
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Aug 22, 2020 22:49
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Yeah, I'd be more worried if Tikhanovskaya's team continued pushing the angle of her being the real president. It's clear that Russia is back to propping Lukashenko (probably they'll get one of the big factories sold to some Putin's friend in return), so it wouldn't be a good time for anything that radical. Plus it's doubtful EU would support that just yet. I imagine, however, if protests continue for another month or so, Russia might lose patience with Lukashenko and start building bridges with the opposition. I still hope for the Armenian scenario.
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Aug 23, 2020 01:51
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EU support is meaningless and simply doesn't exist. They already promised 50 million due to covid and now are promising 54. As for russia propping up Lukashenko, I also disagree. They are observing without supporting either side, Armenian revolt taught them than its possible to have popular uprising without new establishment being hostile to Russia, so they permit it. Lukashenko's list of sins before Kremlin is long and after recent events which shocked even Russians (and Russian citizens also brutalized) there are factions in kremlin who consider him toxic and best gone.Nenonen posted:I don't think I agree with you. Some strange lady giving orders from across the border has very little influence on the military. I disagree with you here. She is not a strange lady, everyone knows who she is. Even pro-Lukashenko beaurocrat in MZKT when pressured admitted "I personally voted for him but I think she won". Senior officers are old fucks who hope to reach retirement age, junior officers are the ones I'm talking about. There is simply no glory here, and a lot of possibilities to gently caress up and end up in jail while your comrades march and give salutes to new government. Conscripts were civilians 6 months ago and will not fire a weapon at their mom, although I prefer not to make predictions about teenagers they were vicious in nazi germany. Sekenr fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Aug 23, 2020 |
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Aug 23, 2020 04:25
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Athough I;ve got to say, I miss Severinets ans Statkevitch. Statkevitch is a hard dude, who's been in jail 5 times and remains unbroken, they dare not set him free because he will immediately make so much noise that they'll have to arrest him again
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Aug 23, 2020 05:53
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Well, today is the same show but with different actors. Today its the army, no OMON  Reasoning is obvious, Lukashenko wants to implicate everyone so none of his supporters come out of it unstained Wrong move IMO. Luka wants to solidify his support by pitting society vs the army, nobody is scared of the army because they can't possibly be worse than OMON. Also both the protesters and the army don't want to fight for reasons that I outlined earlier, Hrenov, the minister of defense, the last thing he wants right now is to be bunched together with OMON who are routinely being referred to as inhuman for their cruelty. One thing I fear is provocation, however even in that case I see that they were issued no guns (thank god), no avtozaks and no batons which the army simply doesn't have in their arsenal Sekenr fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Aug 23, 2020 |
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Aug 23, 2020 13:14
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Another definitely suicide case found of a disappeared protestor. This time he beat himself before death https://mobile.twitter.com/mediazona_by/status/1297249349005717505
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Aug 23, 2020 13:41
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Shitton of people on stela once again which is cordoned by the army. God loving damnit if some shitheel decide to storm the loving reichstag it will be nightmare
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Aug 23, 2020 14:58
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https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1297574485638381570 https://twitter.com/Mirek_Tomek/status/1297575804348575745 https://twitter.com/TechnoSotnya/status/1297567513849597953 HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Aug 23, 2020 |
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Aug 23, 2020 17:45
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