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I don't follow this all very closely, so can someone explain how true it is that the LDP is in the process of screwing Shigeru Ishiba, personally, out of a possible election as Abe's replacement? (And if so, how that squares with the LDP being 100% CIA robot stooges who live in a cave under Yasukuni)
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Aug 29, 2020 18:56
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:All the people who formed the LDP just came out of nowhere and definitely weren't elites and politicians from before WWII. It's not like the LDP's current leadership is composed of the children and grandchildren of said politicians and elites from before WWII. that would be ridiculous, it's obviously the work of the dark puppet masters in the CIA who can't even kill a guy who lives 90 miles away from the US. you... you do realize this is what i was saying right?.. Race Realists posted:same reason Mexico is almost a One-Party-Controlled country but im sure douglas mcarthur (a man known for nearly killing Labor Strike protesters in the US) was very fair and kind to the plight of the japanese poors
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Aug 29, 2020 18:59
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Setting aside the specific issues you guys are talking about you don’t need to do that for Japanese politics anymore than you need to speak Spanish to Mexican nationals in Mexico to have opinions on Mexican politics. You knew that already. Maybe speaking politics to people locally means local understanding of national politics, like talking to people exclusively in American cities won’t give you a complete picture of politics in America.
Shammypants fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 19:00
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Shammypants posted:Setting aside the specific issues you guys are talking about you don’t need to do that for Japanese politics anymore than you need to speak Spanish to Mexican nationals in Mexico to have opinions on Mexican politics. You knew that already. Maybe speaking politics to people locally means local understanding of national politics, like talking to people exclusively in American cities won’t give you a complete picture of politics in America.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:06
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Sauzer posted:I don't follow this all very closely, so can someone explain how true it is that the LDP is in the process of screwing Shigeru Ishiba, personally, out of a possible election as Abe's replacement? The technocratic establishment of the party doesn't like him, and won't choose him unless it goes to a party member primary vote. That may or may not count as screwing him out of anything. They'll probably pick an intermim PM to last until next September, then have a full vote which Ishiba could win, then have an election. The CIA didn't really discriminate between the technocrats and the patronage populists, in the 70s it was Tanaka vs Fukuda instead of Ishiba vs Abe/Suga today Shammypants posted:Setting aside the specific issues you guys are talking about you don’t need to do that for Japanese politics anymore than you need to speak Spanish to Mexican nationals in Mexico to have opinions on Mexican politics. You knew that already. Maybe speaking politics to people locally means local understanding of national politics, like talking to people exclusively in American cities won’t give you a complete picture of politics in America. Not disputing anything in that article, but the NYT is a notably bad source on Japan. Wikipedia is honestly probably better, especially Japanese Wikipedia
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Aug 29, 2020 19:08
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i briefly mentioned Mexico in the last post because its actually hilarious and depressing how similar the PRI and LDP are in terms of austerity
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Aug 29, 2020 19:09
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If the LDP is dominant and the DPJ (or whatever we're calling them now) is weak and also doesn't really have an ideology, what leads people to join/vote for the DPJ? Is it people who got rejected from the LDP for some reason? People who don't like the LDP but can't bring themselves to vote for the Communists?
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Aug 29, 2020 19:12
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Sauzer posted:Sure, but imagine trying to assert a meaningful knowledge of Mexican politics while never hearing from actual Mexicans or understanding any Spanish. Imagine further that what framework you do have for understanding Mexico is cobbled together mostly from a combination of Wikipedia articles and your a priori beliefs about the total power of the government of a different country (whose language you conveniently do understand) to shape all events anyway. Talking to people is important sure but the message was intended to discredit people in a glorified pissing contest let’s be honest. My view of Hun Sen isn’t going to change no matter how many Cambodian people I talk to. Hearing interview after interview of Americans and why they support Trump doesn’t change anything. And speaking to Japanese people, while helpful, doesn’t change the fact that you can be speaking to people within a bubble. Are the people you’re speaking to generally well off and highly educated and young from Tokyo? Ok, neat, where’s your complete picture of the country? I don’t really think anyone needs to list off how many people they interact with, for how long and certify it to contribute here. It goes without saying you should have a diverse set of material to base your opinions on, and not simply one article. No one would argue that.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:12
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Just to provide proper context here Shammypants is notorious for coming into various Japan threads and giving really laughably bad takes about anything regarding Japan to the point that there's literally offline discussions about "wait is this person actually mentally ill?" so please frame all their posts appropriately. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 29, 2020 19:20
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LimburgLimbo posted:Just to provide proper context here Shammypants is notorious for coming into various Japan threads and giving really laughably bad takes about anything regarding Japan to the point that there's literally offline discussions about "wait is this guy actually mentally ill?" so please frame all his posts appropriately. To provide further context, you apologized for occasionally coming off as an rear end in a top hat, and I figured here was a chance to remedy one instance. I'm also waiting for you to PM me so we can begin our discussion. I thought we were going to be very productive?
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Aug 29, 2020 19:21
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Badger of Basra posted:Is it people who got rejected from the LDP for some reason? People who don't like the LDP but can't bring themselves to vote for the Communists? In terms of voters, it's the latter, although very few such people actually show up to vote or even exist for the last decade. In terms of elected representatives/MPs, it's the former, originally people who quit the LDP out of some combination of true commitment to neoliberal reform and political opportunism, and then after them people who very stupidly entered politics after the early 90s with the DPJ expecting them to replace the LDP as dominant party.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:21
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Shammypants posted:To provide further context, you apologized for occasionally coming off as an rear end in a top hat, and I figured here was a chance to remedy one instance. When I do that it's mostly facetious tbh
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Aug 29, 2020 19:21
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LimburgLimbo posted:When I do that it's mostly facetious tbh Well here is a good learning moment for you. Your response to non-emotional and non-controversial posts about the Bank of Japan and tourism targets from publicly available government documents is to call people mentally ill and racist. Maybe you should stop there, here and anywhere.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:26
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Race Realists posted:i briefly mentioned Mexico in the last post because its actually hilarious and depressing how similar the PRI and LDP are in terms of austerity Mexico is a good example of how introducing procedural rotation of parties in government and neoliberal shock therapy actually made everything even worse, so it's very weird that people are still demanding that for Japan in TYOOL 2020
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Aug 29, 2020 19:31
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Shammypants posted:Well here is a good learning moment for you. Your response to non-emotional and non-controversial posts about the Bank of Japan and tourism targets from publicly available government documents is to call people mentally ill and racist. Maybe you should stop there, here and anywhere. You're right that your posts are neither emotional nor controversial; they're literally just provable wrong. You also have a habit of not responding to posts demonstrating clearly, like literally with numbers and sources, how you're wrong. Not controversial. Wrong. Like it's okay, everyone is wrong sometimes, but it is perplexing how you seem to be okay with being wrong *all the time* with no self-reflection at all. Your life I guess?
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Aug 29, 2020 19:34
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icantfindaname posted:The technocratic establishment of the party doesn't like him, and won't choose him unless it goes to a party member primary vote. That may or may not count as screwing him out of anything. They'll probably pick an intermim PM to last until next September, then have a full vote which Ishiba could win, then have an election.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:40
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LimburgLimbo posted:Literally nobody is doing this. A claim was made (via a tweet quote lol) that implied that Japanese ultra-nationalism was just a CIA op, which is utterly laughable. CIA absolutely was (and almost certainly to this day is, if they bother) happy to provide backing to the Japanese right-wing, but to make the *incredibly racist* assertion that any Japanese nationalism has to be spurred on by the CIA to even exist is mindblowingly stupid tankie bullshit. This is actually how the dynamics of Japanese nationalism is being portrayed, here, in this thread, between posts that are literally just multiple links to wikipedia (lol) about basic concepts of Japanese politics that every other poster here is aware of. i was not insinuating this. Stop.
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Aug 29, 2020 19:45
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Sauzer posted:Yeah I was referring to them going forward with the reduced voter pool, excluding the general membership, which I take is being framed as corona-related, but also conveniently snubs Ishiba. It wasn't clear to me that this was being treated as an "interim" position; so whoever wins this probably doesn't matter much in the mid to long run? Presumably incumbency would at least be an advantage in a future full election though. Yes, the party bylaw that allows them to have an MP-only vote only applies in emergency cases where the PM/party president steps down unexpectedly (not because COVID), and the person chosen only serves out the rest of the term until a full party primary is held on schedule
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Aug 29, 2020 19:46
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I didn't mean the vote was legally authorized by corona, but that the argument is they can't wait to orchestrate a broader vote because they don't want a gap in leadership during the epidemic. I don't get it though - things are so messy right now that it seems like it would be a sacrificial lamb situation to step up to leadership at all. If the party apparatus dislikes him so much, wouldn't it be better to let him win now, and likely eat poo poo for the inevitable fallout of COVID?
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Aug 29, 2020 19:57
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Race Realists posted:i was not insinuating this. Stop. If everyone in a thread keeps responding to your posts as if they mean something entirely different than what you intended, then maybe you're the one with the communication problems, rather than everyone else.
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Aug 29, 2020 20:11
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Sauzer posted:I didn't mean the vote was legally authorized by corona, but that the argument is they can't wait to orchestrate a broader vote because they don't want a gap in leadership during the epidemic. I don't get it though - things are so messy right now that it seems like it would be a sacrificial lamb situation to step up to leadership at all. If the party apparatus dislikes him so much, wouldn't it be better to let him win now, and likely eat poo poo for the inevitable fallout of COVID? I don't think it's clear how much of a backlash there will be, it could go either way. If they give Ishiba the premiership and there's only mild backlash he'll be well positioned to win the full election next year. I think especially if he gets a bully pulpit and can sell himself directly to the broad public as being an honest man persecuted by the scheming old guard, that's not great for the old guard icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 20:21
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There’s also the chance things turn out better than expected in the coming year and a new leader allows them to recalibrate economic and other expectations that they can meet? I’m not super optimistic about Covid or olympics but Japan has weathered better than many.
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Aug 29, 2020 20:23
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LimburgLimbo posted:You're just exposing your lack of understanding of the dynamics of Japanese politics and the military realities in Japan. There's always a risk of serious backlash because the Japanese populace at large has a major case of heiwa boke, and the standards to amend the constitution are quite high and would risk expending too much political capital. And why should they push it too hard? Japan has gone from having nothing more than a police force armed with US military hand-me-downs to some of the best funded and arguably most capable military forces *on the entire planet*, including foreign deployments, overseas military bases, and aircraft carriers with what's likely going to be the second largest contingent of F-35s in the world, after the US. All without amending Article 9; they're getting what they want already with minimal political risk. All you need to do is anchor the conversation with discussion of amending Article 9; if it goes through great, if it doesn't then just arm up anyway and everyone goes "well they didn't amend Article 9 so it's okay" while in the meantime you've got one of the most well armed militaries in the world. this is extremely telling. there's always been an anti-chinese sentiment (certainly not all, just the older Boomer types) within Japan (for obvious historical reasons), a country that quickly became a US Satellite State after WWII and during the Cold War there's always been an anti-chinese sentiment in the United States (especially in regards to Foreign Policy), and its brand of anti-communism contains elements of this. Japan is a US Satellite State with several US Military Bases. 
BornAPoorBlkChild fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 20:54
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:If everyone in a thread keeps responding to your posts as if they mean something entirely different than what you intended, then maybe you're the one with the communication problems, rather than everyone else. you mean the guy who gets a hard-on defending Japanese NeoConservatism and the other deliberately arguing in Bad Faith? that's the hill I'm dying on. I don't care if I get infracted. no one has the right to accuse me of defending genocide and they have another thing coming if they think I'm not going to respond. a revived left won't magically take away your cartoons BornAPoorBlkChild fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 20:57
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I'm confused by what seems to be this one-sided argument. Is someone here disagreeing that Japanese politics is influenced by, among other things, its closest ally, largest export market, and the global hegemon? Because that does seem uncontroversial. e: precision
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Aug 29, 2020 21:46
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Sauzer posted:I'm confused by what seems to be this one-sided argument. Is someone here disagreeing that Japanese politics is influenced by, among other things, its closest ally, largest export market, and the global hegemon? Because that does seem uncontroversial. "Influenced by" covers a wide range of possibilities, but I think what people mostly disagree with is the idea that Japan is fundamentally much less democratic than, say, Italy or Australia. Which I'm not sure anyone in this thread has actually said, to be fair.
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Aug 29, 2020 22:38
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Silver2195 posted:"Influenced by" covers a wide range of possibilities, but I think what people mostly disagree with is the idea that Japan is fundamentally much less democratic than, say, Italy or Australia. Which I'm not sure anyone in this thread has actually said, to be fair.
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Aug 29, 2020 22:58
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I just hope that Battle Royale dude get lots of votes, though it seems very unlikely. He seems cool.
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Aug 29, 2020 23:45
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Badger of Basra posted:If the LDP is dominant and the DPJ (or whatever we're calling them now) is weak and also doesn't really have an ideology, what leads people to join/vote for the DPJ? Is it people who got rejected from the LDP for some reason? People who don't like the LDP but can't bring themselves to vote for the Communists?
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Aug 29, 2020 23:49
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Lol at the CHUDs who think the CIA holds ultimate power in Japan and not secret societies like the Black Dragon Society with its army of ninja warriors like Count Dante and Ashida Kim capable of assasinating any world leaders (source: poo poo I read on English Wikipedia and some crappy internet forums).
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Aug 30, 2020 00:33
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If the Japanese don't want to own up to ww2 atrocities, it's 100% their own decision. Don't blame it on CIA. The Japanese are adults and they have access to all the information theu need.
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Aug 30, 2020 00:44
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all of the core founders of the LDP were movers and shakers before the war (see: Shinzo Abe's ancestors), like it isn't a conspiracy that the US thought that the best people to lead the country postwar were the people who were running things before the war.
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Aug 30, 2020 01:51
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Phone posted:all of the core founders of the LDP were movers and shakers before the war (see: Shinzo Abe's ancestors), like it isn't a conspiracy that the US thought that the best people to lead the country postwar were the people who were running things before the war. let's not forget that the bureaucracy wasn't really purged at all either. the allies's (read: US's) actions definitely reverberate across time. it's just puerile to suggest that japanese politics are just window dressing for CIA puppet mastery. it's so much more complicated than that.
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Aug 30, 2020 03:07
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So I take it the divide in this thread is if Langly or the PSIA ordered Asanuma's hit? Personally, I think it was local initiation, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least some curtesy calls.
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Aug 30, 2020 03:48
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So I am watching a retrospective of Abe on Al Jazeera. It really got me to think that Shinzo Abe has been doing the best he could do and managed the conflicts from all sides with skill on the prior "conservative mainstream projectary". However I think what he and the Stuff like hiking up the sales tax to pay for the children rearing cost is boneheaded. The Japanese young generations already don't want to spend anything, everyone acting like they are mininalist hikers living in a 60 sq ft tent. Increasing their cost of living will just make them spend less and shrink Japan's consumer market even more. In case of the #2 point, the more I read up on the economic decisions Japan made after the Plaza Accord, and thus hosed up their economy for 2-3 decades good, the more I believe Japan lack long term strategic thinkers. Japan was not the only country US forced to increase the value of the currency. Germany was made to do it. But because the German economy was already much more balanced and healthy, Germany just increased their mark easily without a skip. And if you look at the Sino-US economic disagreements in recent times. US has been repeatedly asked China to increase the value of yuan in the last few administrations, China just ignored US. Neither Germany nor China built up their economy in such a way that they NEED the US market to survive, not so for Japan's export economy during the PIaza Accord days. So many of their critical decisions in the modern times has been marked by adventurism high gamble decisions. If you keep pushing all of your chips to the table, you are going to lose to the house. The Korean politic has been swinging more violently back and fore in their every presidential term compare to Japanese old men politic, but IMO they are pushing their country and their economy toward a direction more suited toward the 21st century. stephenthinkpad fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Aug 30, 2020 |
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Aug 30, 2020 13:24
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Admittedly, the revaluation of the Yen was significantly steeper than the Mark, during the early 1980s, it was bouncing between 230-260 to the dollar and had fallen to 87 to the dollar by 1995. In that context, the entire that occurred in Japan and the damage it did when it popped seems pretty straight forward. Also, I think the EEC/EU and then the creation of the Eurozone (the big issue was fixing the exchange rate in 1999), allowed Germany an "internal" market to bolster growth. However, it leaves two questions, why did Japan allow the Yen to revalue to such a dangerous extent and why haven't they tried major social reforms? The answer is I think the US simply had far more leverage on Japan than Germany, and that the LDP can't be any force for change period. Otherwise, I agree, Japanese companies have pushed for greater productivity (more working hours) for its workers which have made them even less inclined to have a family (I guess they can raise their kids on their cigarette break...) and higher consumption taxes have only depressed spending even further. In addition, I don't really think there will be a major move to allow in mass immigrant (hundreds of thousands of people a year) which would be the only thing to rebalance the situation. The only possible inflection point is that simply through generational change that the electorate changes, but that could take 20 years. One thing that isn't hard to spot is that a lot of Japanese cities look a little bit dated like time stopped in around 1992, and some ways, it did. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Aug 30, 2020 |
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Aug 30, 2020 16:16
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stephenthinkpad posted:So I am watching a retrospective of Abe on Al Jazeera. It really got me to think that Shinzo Abe has been doing the best he could do and managed the conflicts from all sides with skill on the prior "conservative mainstream projectary". However I think what he and the Just kinda the same poo poo everyone else is doing; demanding younger generations spend more money they don't have, get jobs when no one's hiring and have more babies when they can't even move out of their parents' house. And in general assuming that problems aren't a thing that's ever going to exist again.
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Aug 30, 2020 17:08
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Phone posted:all of the core founders of the LDP were movers and shakers before the war (see: Shinzo Abe's ancestors), like it isn't a conspiracy that the US thought that the best people to lead the country postwar were the people who were running things before the war. Not to say the LDP’s founders were saintlike or anything but this mantra is really an extreme stretch and distortion, despite how much it has become the standard narrative. The prewar system had several power centers, the military elite, the parliamentary/party-political elite, the civilian bureaucracy, big business. The military elites are all purged and many are actually hanged. Almost all of the party-political elites are purged, with the only figures in the LDP from the old parties being Hatoyama and Miki, fairy minor characters. The civilian bureaucracy produces most of the leaders of the early postwar, but aside from Kishi none of them can be fairly described as inner circle regime members. Yoshida was more of a 1920s figure, officially retired in 1938 and was against the war with the United States from the start, though he supported economic imperialism in China (Kishi of course signed the declaration of war against the US). Ikeda was a tax accountant at the lowest level of the bureaucracy and Sato was a railroad official at the lowest level of the bureaucracy, which are part of the regime technically but not really the power elites. Big business continues pretty much unaffected. The only figure that is sort of accurately described as “running things before the war” is Kishi, who firstly was the most junior member of the cabinet that signed the declaration of war, and who was resoundingly rejected by the public and run out of power in 1960. Ikeda then led the LDP in the opposite direction and it’s fair to say that the LDP post-1960 is at least as much Ikeda’s party as Kishi’s. Ikeda’s liberal bona fides are a big part of why the LDP lasted so long in power And finally, there’s at least as much fascist regime continuity in Germany and France and Italy, maybe moreso. In Germany you get figures like Kiesinger, Hans Globke, Reinhard Gehlen, all on Kishi’s level and none of whom are as overtly rejected by the public as Kishi. In France De Gaulle is basically Kishi himself, he was Petain’s protege and close to an adopted son, and basically completely whitewashed and laundered the reputation of the native French far-right which then reassumed influence in French politics icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Aug 30, 2020 |
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Aug 30, 2020 19:07
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quote:On 1 December 1941, Kishi voted in the Cabinet for war with the United States and Britain, and signed the declaration of war issued on 7 December 1941.[41] Kishi had known General Tōjō since 1931, and was one of his closest allies in the Cabinet. Kishi was also elected to the Lower House of the Diet of Japan in April 1942 as a member of the Imperial Rule Assistance Association.[23] As Munitions Minister, Kishi was deeply involved in taking thousands of Koreans and Chinese to work as slaves in Japan's factories and mines during the war.[42] During the war, 670,000 Koreans and 41,862 Chinese were taken to work as slave labor under the most degrading conditions in Japan; the majority did not survive the experience.[43] In July 1944, Kishi made the Tojo Cabinet resign en masse by forging disagreements within the Cabinet after the fall of Saipan. During the political crisis caused by the Japanese defeat at the Battle of Saipan, Tōjō attempted to save his government from collapse by reorganizing his cabinet, Kishi told Tōjō he only would resign if the prime minister resigned with the entire cabinet, saying a partial reorganization was unacceptable.[40] Firing Kishi was not an option since Tōjō himself had appointed him, and despite Tōjō's tears as he begged Kishi to save his government, Kishi was unmoved.[40] After the fall of the Tōjō government, he left the Imperial Rule Assistance Association and founded a new political party, the Kishi New Party.[23] Kishi took him with 32 members of the Diet into his party. The Kishi New Party was noteworthy because none of its members were connected to the zaibatsu; instead the Kishi New Party comprised small and middle-sized businessmen who had invested in Manchukuo during Kishi's time in Manchuria or who had benefited from state contracts during Kishi's time as Munitions Minister; senior executives at the "public policy corporations" Kishi had created for investments in Manchukuo, and ultra-nationalists who had participated in coup attempts in the 1930s.[23] I will just post this from Kishi's wikipedia entry.
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Aug 30, 2020 20:17
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Well it does sound like he was a complete motherfucker. Is it rational to say that Murayama was the most decent MP in the country's history?
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Aug 31, 2020 00:28
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