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Sarcastro of two weeks ago posted:Hey, Champaign-Urbana! Guess what two weeks into your future looks like! Not that, I think, this was any great stretch here.
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Sep 4, 2020 13:42
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Sarcastro posted:Not that, I think, this was any great stretch here.
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Sep 4, 2020 13:44
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dwarf74 posted:no no just ask the physicists in charge of their pandemic response. there'll be no more than 100 cases on campus at any one time you see because basically students are particles and Physicists should only be asked about physics. Thats a super lol considering the medical school they have there.
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Sep 4, 2020 13:47
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Source4Leko posted:Physicists should only be asked about physics. Thats a super lol considering the medical school they have there. So along come two smart, confident, older, white, male scientists who just assume spherical students in a vacuum and give them really reassuring numbers of no more than 100 active cases at a time.... beep boop okay to open
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Sep 4, 2020 14:01
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Assume the student body is a perfectly smooth ball rolling on an infinite frictionless plane
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Sep 4, 2020 14:34
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dwarf74 posted:lol, McLean county (called Bloomington IL in the chart) cracked the NYT's top ten Covid19 outbreaks. Ha, I think 8 out of 10 of those are college towns. My alma mater representing at #4. Last I heard, UofI had to reprimand 11 Greek houses for holding parties. Things going great!
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Sep 4, 2020 14:50
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If your entire plan/model is based on near-perfect compliance of 18-22 year olds, you're a complete moron. Bad news about most college admins...
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Sep 4, 2020 14:58
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brugroffil posted:If your entire plan/model is based on near-perfect compliance of 18-22 year olds, you're a complete moron. Bad news about most college admins... And we should not be in a situation where our public health relies on college students not partying.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:04
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Everyone should come to campus for in-person learning, but also everyone should remain locked inside their tiny dorms or apartments when not in class. This is a good and smart plan that has a high likelihood of success. I had been hopeful of UIUC's plan because they were really getting out in front of the testing. Too bad they didn't come up with anything realistic beyond that.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:07
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I don't know of a realistic plan, but if the school could somehow test everyone on a weekly basis, they could probably control things well enough. That means having the capacity to test like 5,000 people a day though.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:21
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I think UIUC is testing everyone on campus every 3 days (rolling cohorts, so Group A is tested Monday and then Thursday and then Sunday etc., Group B starts on Tuesday then Friday etc.) to the point where UIUC alone accounts for 3% of all testing being done in the entire country. But even with all that testing, apparently their models cooked up by some physicists assumed no more than 100 cases at a time ever and that students would fully comply with all distancing measures i.e. nobody has any parties.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:25
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Bird in a Blender posted:I don't know of a realistic plan, but if the school could somehow test everyone on a weekly basis, they could probably control things well enough. That means having the capacity to test like 5,000 people a day though. U of I arguably has the most robust testing of any university in the nation right now, and they're still failing. 
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Sep 4, 2020 15:26
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Ah yea, well I guess I figured students would be better once they know they tested positive, and that was very dumb of me. Time to create a quarantine dorm.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:28
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Bird in a Blender posted:Ah yea, well I guess I figured students would be better once they know they tested positive, and that was very dumb of me. Time to create a quarantine dorm. http://www.videtteonline.com/news/campus-quarantine-disrupts-student-living/article_fc4a20c0-ebd2-11ea-aa5a-6767fa489b54.html quote:Pupo also expressed concerns for the on-campus and off-campus quarantine areas that ISU has put in place. and I am sure ISU students are doing the same 'ignoring quarantine' stuff as U of I, but we just don't know it because the university hasn't done anything to find out.
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Sep 4, 2020 15:32
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dwarf74 posted:You're still relying on people behaving responsibly once they know they have it. U of I is reporting students with positive test results ignoring quarantine, avoiding contact tracers, and trying to re-test in hopes of magically getting a negative result. The testing has always been about getting the data for a sweet research paper on how the spread happens in close to real time, since there was never any effort about forcible quarantine of infected people let alone exposed people The model is just the excuse, I'm sure they got told don't include parties or anything in it so we can justify our Nobel prize submission's data collection
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Sep 4, 2020 15:39
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mastershakeman posted:The testing has always been about getting the data for a sweet research paper on how the spread happens in close to real time, since there was never any effort about forcible quarantine of infected people let alone exposed people I disagree with that. Its not 'two physicists lol' its the Woese Geonomics IGB leader guy and his team, the 'physics guy' is just the spokesman. Institute of Geonomic Biology does this kind of modeling and its super complicated and yes, its multidisciplinary. wikipedia posted:The IGB houses over 130 faculty and 600+ graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and research personnel. IGB faculty are drawn from a broad range of departments, including Crop Sciences, Psychology, Entomology, Physics and Computer Science. Several of the themes have to do with biocomplexity, biosystems design, etc. One of those theme leaders, Hergenrother, was one of the guys who came up with the spit test in the first place. This was not a 'let's go PhD shopping to find someone who'll tell us what we wanna hear.' I don't think they actively expected people to duck contact tracers and the public health department to maintain plausible deniability as they went and took multiple tests to try and get a different result like its a video game save point or something. You'd expect more out of people ostensibly smart enough to get into a school like UIUC but dumbasses gonna dumbass and noone ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the average American. But yeah they do have isolation dorms (I think there's over 100 people in them now) set up with meal delivery etc. for kids on campus who test positive or have been told to quarantine. And they sent out a 'fear of God' letter about just locking down for the next two weeks and so far, it looks like its working (or at least everyone's left campus for home to beat the rush lol) https://www.news-gazette.com/corona...0e9df3f240.html
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Sep 4, 2020 16:43
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brugroffil posted:I think UIUC is testing everyone on campus every 3 days (rolling cohorts, so Group A is tested Monday and then Thursday and then Sunday etc., Group B starts on Tuesday then Friday etc.) to the point where UIUC alone accounts for 3% of all testing being done in the entire country. It's a good way to get your test positivity to look like this:  rather than what it looks like and I and Dwarf74's region: 
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Sep 4, 2020 19:44
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hey man I'm in Will we're *barely* better
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Sep 4, 2020 21:21
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dwarf74 posted:They probably did ask actual epidemiologists and doctors. Those would have all told the board 'oh hell no' or given extremely complex answers with a lot of uncertainty, neither of which the board wanted to hear. If I am reading this correctly its even worse that. 100 active cases was the worst case scenario. https://www.news-gazette.com/corona...f0692a0312.html quote:With the UI’s measures, Goldenfeld and Maslov’s model predicts a surge of cases as students arrive, and soon after, nearly 400 people may have to quarantine because of possible contact with an infected person.
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Sep 4, 2020 22:06
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Bugsy posted:If I am reading this correctly its even worse that. 100 active cases was the worst case scenario. I don’t think you’re reading it correctly. They expected 100 active cases at any one time not one hundred total. Think of it as a rolling average. Most people resolve symptoms after 10 days on average. About 20% get sick enough to be hospitalized but that’s over all populations not 18-24 year olds who’ve likely had access to good uninterrupted health care their whole lives. IIRC only one person has been hospitalized in the whole county since school started and I don’t even know if it was a student. But the sudden uptick in cases is alarming enough they went full lockdown. Honestly they should have taken a page from all the nations that have successfully kept it out and put them all on 14 day quarantine the instant they set foot on campus complete with tracking app but privacy muh freedoms etc (Hong Kong actually uses a house arrest ankle monitor but blew it by making exceptions for VIPs and flight crews).
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Sep 5, 2020 07:19
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drat, they might actually get Madigan up out of the paint. https://capitolfax.com/2020/09/08/former-comed-vp-charged-appears-to-be-cooperating/ https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1302045254246432770 quote:“This is an unequivocal indication that Marquez is cooperating,” said Juliet Sorensen, a Northwestern University law professor and a former federal prosecutor who investigated corruption cases. […] Snitches smh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLutQQzjig4 edit: https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1303241923759452162 Dexo fucked around with this message at 09:13 on Sep 8, 2020 |
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Sep 8, 2020 09:07
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I feel like we're finally finding out why Lisa quit politics all of a sudden.
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Sep 8, 2020 16:38
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A reformed Calabrese is posting the indictments of Madigan allies. What a world we live in.
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Sep 8, 2020 16:56
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ISU's president is loving delusional. https://www.wglt.org/post/isu-president-dietz-says-covid-19-numbers-dont-tell-whole-story#stream/0 quote:"The truth is, many state universities don’t test nearly as much as Illinois State, and don’t transparently report positive cases as does ISU. Other universities test so often that their positivity rates skew lower through simple division," Dietz said. "The ultimate fact is the coronavirus impacts Illinois universities in a similar fashion. The more students, the more likely the incidence of coronavirus, and creative counting and reporting doesn’t alter that fact." quote:Reflecting on the start of the school year, Dietz said there’s not necessarily anything he’d do differently. Oh and then he farts on about what great enrollment numbers they have. At length. Because big number good. I'd just like to know what they expected would happen.
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Sep 11, 2020 18:12
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dwarf74 posted:ISU's president is loving delusional. Continuing a proud tradition of awful administration at that school I see.
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Sep 11, 2020 18:19
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Source4Leko posted:Continuing a proud tradition of awful administration at that school I see. I met the president before him and don't even remember his name. He assaulted a groundskeeper. If they weren't ghoulish and out of touch they wouldn't be running the university! 😞
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Sep 11, 2020 19:18
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NIU is going back to online classes only for 2 weeks after over a hundred students have gotten COVID in the three weeks it's been open. Can't wait for the second surge after it goes back to partially in-person classes after that.
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Sep 11, 2020 19:24
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I know it's going toward a good cause (paying my teacher friends' pensions) but woooey, seeing the state auto reg jump from $109/year to $151/year on my 2003 ford focus made my eyes pop out like a cartoon character when I got my renewal card today.
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Sep 15, 2020 02:08
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Funny you mention that because last night I looked up how much it will cost to title and register my car and motorcycle when I move and god drat
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Sep 15, 2020 13:22
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Hopefully that will change if the Fair Tax passes.
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Sep 15, 2020 13:43
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The X-man cometh posted:Hopefully that will change if the Fair Tax passes. Oh you sweet summer child. (The progressive tax is good)
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Sep 15, 2020 15:38
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They should probably come up with TV spots more engaging than 30 seconds of text set to royalty free drum beats if they want people to pay attention to it.
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Sep 15, 2020 15:49
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xzzy posted:They should probably come up with TV spots more engaging than 30 seconds of text set to royalty free drum beats if they want people to pay attention to it.
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Sep 15, 2020 16:17
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I love our political system, where the marketing and branding of a public facing proposal is like 10 million times more important than the substance.
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Sep 15, 2020 16:36
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what political system is that not true for though
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Sep 15, 2020 16:43
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Getting on a soapbox and broadcasting your opinion to try and find people that agree is basically how everything a human society has ever done was accomplished, nothing wrong with that. What floors me is how loving malleable people are. I usually have my vote set in stone the moment I learn something is going to be on a ballot, and ad campaigns are able to shift the tide on a daily basis right up to election day? 
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Sep 15, 2020 16:52
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I got a pamphlet with the proposed changes and an argument for/against in the mail from the Secretary of State. Do they always send out a pamphlet? I just briefly glanced over the against argument. It was saying “if this passes, the legislature can increase taxes with no limit and no accountability” which makes no sense. The accountability is the same as always, if you raise them too high then people (the rich people that don’t want taxes) vote you out of office.
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Sep 15, 2020 16:58
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xzzy posted:What floors me is how loving malleable people are. I usually have my vote set in stone the moment I learn something is going to be on a ballot, and ad campaigns are able to shift the tide on a daily basis right up to election day? This is how I feel about undecided voters. I mean, they must exist, but how you can look at a candidate and not immediately know whether their platform aligns with your beliefs is utterly incomprehensible to me.
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Sep 15, 2020 17:19
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Eeyo posted:I got a pamphlet with the proposed changes and an argument for/against in the mail from the Secretary of State. Do they always send out a pamphlet? I don't know if they always do, but I definitely remember getting those previously for other significant ballot issues/proposed Constitutional amendments. Based on that I'd guess they probably do always send those out.
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Sep 15, 2020 17:39
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Big Black Dick posted:This is how I feel about undecided voters. I mean, they must exist, but how you can look at a candidate and not immediately know whether their platform aligns with your beliefs is utterly incomprehensible to me. Depressingly, a lot of people do not vote on platforms, or beliefs. They vote for the person they like the most. Trump and Sanders had nearly zero platform overlap, yet there were a significant portion of the electorate that voted for Sanders in the primary and Trump in the general. Undecided voters are essentially people who do not really care that much about substance.
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Sep 15, 2020 18:06
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